Shawn Marshall | University of Calgary (original) (raw)

Papers by Shawn Marshall

Research paper thumbnail of Engaging Students in Atmospheric Science: A University-High School Collaboration in British Columbia, Canada

Journal of Geoscience Education, Mar 1, 2009

Research paper thumbnail of Simulation of Vatnaj�kull ice cap dynamics

Journal of Geophysical Research, 2005

Research paper thumbnail of Rapid Changes in Glaciers and Ice Sheets and their Impacts on Sea Level

Research paper thumbnail of Combining glaciological models and tracers for understanding ice core records in Antarctica

Understanding past climate over Antarctica and evaluating the isotopic composition of its large i... more Understanding past climate over Antarctica and evaluating the isotopic composition of its large ice sheets remain challenges to elucidate for the paleoclimatologists' community. The present work combines glaciological models of various degrees of complexity to estimate these quantities from recently drilled ice cores (Vostok, Dome C, Byrd...). A 1-D deposition model and a 2-D flow model are used in inverse

Research paper thumbnail of Simulating Arctic climate warmth and ice - field retreat in the last interglaciation

In the future, Arctic warming and the melting of polar glaciers will be considerable, but the mag... more In the future, Arctic warming and the melting of polar glaciers will be considerable, but the magnitude of both is uncertain. We used a global climate model, a dynamic ice sheet model, and paleoclimatic data to evaluate Northern Hemisphere high-latitude warming and its impact on Arctic icefields during the Last Interglaciation. Our simulated climate matches paleoclimatic observations of past warming, and the combination of physically based climate and ice-sheet modeling with ice-core constraints indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet and other circum-Arctic ice fields likely contributed 2.2 to 3.4 meters of sea-level rise during the Last Interglaciation.

Research paper thumbnail of Glaciology of Ice Age cycles: physical processes and modelling challenges

Research paper thumbnail of Meltwater run-off from Haig Glacier, Canadian Rocky Mountains, 2002–2013

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of Radiation Index Melt Modelling and Implications for the North American Deglaciation

A proper energy balance calculation of snow and ice melt is difficult to carry out in ice sheet m... more A proper energy balance calculation of snow and ice melt is difficult to carry out in ice sheet models due to the need for detailed meteorological data (i.e. wind conditions, cloud cover, etc.) that are unavailable for the past and too complex and spatially variable to be extracted from climate models. Ice sheet models therefore resort to more simple positive degree day (PDD) melt relationships to parameterize snow and ice melt from air temperature inputs for mass balance calculations. However, the PDD parameters that have been developed for use in ice sheet models are based on studies done in Greenland and the Canadian Arctic where temperatures are relatively low and radiation regimes different than those at lower latitudes. This becomes a problem in applications to the former Laurentide ice sheet, which was in radiation and temperature conditions possibly much different than those in which present relationships were established. The work presented here seeks to remedy the above pr...

Research paper thumbnail of Mechanisms of Global Climate Change at Millennial Time Scales

Geophysical Monograph Series, 2000

Research paper thumbnail of Modeling Langjokull ice cap through the Holocene

Seismic studies and coring of proglacial lake Hvítárvatn, central Iceland, have revealed a detail... more Seismic studies and coring of proglacial lake Hvítárvatn, central Iceland, have revealed a detailed sedimentological history from which Holocene environmental conditions can be interpreted. These records indicate decisive shifts in sediment provenance over the last 10,000 years, which in turn provide constraints on the distribution and activity of ice in the Hvítárvatn catchment. The emerging interpretation is that the Hvítárvatn catchment was ice-free in the early Holocene, with Langjökull ice cap reaching its Holocene maximum during the Little Ice Age. To assess the validity of this interpretation from a glaciological standpoint, we use numerical models of ice dynamics and hydrology to investigate the climatic conditions under which the proposed glacial history is possible. The structure of temporal fluctuations in air temperature through the Holocene are taken from the NGRIP oxygen isotope record and referenced to a spatially-resolved 1961--1990 temperature map of the area. A ref...

Research paper thumbnail of Assessment of current methods of positive degree-day calculation using in situ observations from glaciated regions

Journal of Glaciology

The continued use of the positive degree-day (PDD) method to predict ice-sheet melt is generally ... more The continued use of the positive degree-day (PDD) method to predict ice-sheet melt is generally favoured over surface energy-balance methods partly due to the computational efficiency of the algorithm and the requirement of only one input variable (temperature). In this paper, we revisit some of the assumptions governing the application of the PDD method. Using hourly temperature data from the GC-Net network we test the assumption that monthly PDD total (PDDM) can be represented by a Gaussian distribution with fixed standard deviation of monthly temperature (σ M). The results presented here show that the common assumption of fixed σ M does not hold, and that σ M may be represented more accurately as a quadratic function of average monthly temperature. For Greenland, the mean absolute error in predicting PDDM using our methodology is 3.9°C d, representing a significant improvement on current methods (7.8°C d, when σ M = 4.5°C). Over a range of glaciated settings, our method reproduc...

Research paper thumbnail of Modelling the Northward Expansion of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) under Future Climate Scenarios

Research paper thumbnail of Modelled nucleation centres of the Pleistocene ice sheets from an ice sheet model with subgrid topographic and glaciologic parameterizations

Quaternary International, 2002

Research paper thumbnail of Modelling Glacier Response to Climate Change

Glacier Science and Environmental Change, 2006

This chapter focuses on the coupling of glacier and climate models for simulation of glacier and ... more This chapter focuses on the coupling of glacier and climate models for simulation of glacier and icefield response to climate change. Sections 32.2 and 32.3 summarize glacier mass balance and ice dynamics considerations, concentrating on concepts that are central to ...

Research paper thumbnail of Cryosphere cryosphere , Modeling cryosphere modeling of

Encyclopedia of Sustainability Science and Technology, 2012

Research paper thumbnail of Estimation of glacial melt contributions to the Bow River, Alberta, Canada, using a radiation–temperature melt model

Annals of Glaciology, 2014

ABSTRACT Alberta's Bow River has its headwaters in the glaciated eastern slopes of the Ca... more ABSTRACT Alberta's Bow River has its headwaters in the glaciated eastern slopes of the Canadian Rockies and is a major source of water in southern Alberta. Glacial retreat, declining snowpacks and increased water demand are all expected in the coming century, yet there are relatively few studies focusing on quantifying glacial meltwater in the Bow River. We develop a new radiation–temperature melt model for modelling distributed glacier mass balance and runoff in the Bow River basin. The model reflects physical processes through the incorporation of near-surface air temperature and absorbed radiation, while avoiding problems of collinearity through the use of a radiation-decorrelated temperature index. The model is calibrated at Haig Glacier in the southern portion of the basin and validated at Haig and Peyto Glaciers. Application of the model to the entire Bow River basin for 2000–09 shows glacier ice melt is equivalent to 3% of annual discharge in Calgary on average. Modelled ice melt in August is equal to 8–20% of the August Bow River discharge in Calgary. This emphasizes the importance of glacier runoff to late-summer streamflow in the region, particularly in warm, dry years.

Research paper thumbnail of Temperature Lapse Rates in Glacierized Basins

Encyclopedia of Earth Sciences Series, 2011

Research paper thumbnail of Climate change. Glacier retreat crosses a line

Science (New York, N.Y.), Jan 22, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of Substantial contribution to sea-level rise during the last interglacial from the Greenland ice sheet

Nature, Jan 6, 2000

During the last interglacial period (the Eemian), global sea level was at least three metres, and... more During the last interglacial period (the Eemian), global sea level was at least three metres, and probably more than five metres, higher than at present. Complete melting of either the West Antarctic ice sheet or the Greenland ice sheet would today raise sea levels by 6-7 metres. But the high sea levels during the last interglacial period have been proposed to result mainly from disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet, with model studies attributing only 1-2 m of sea-level rise to meltwater from Greenland. This result was considered consistent with ice core evidence, although earlier work had suggested a much reduced Greenland ice sheet during the last interglacial period. Here we reconsider the Eemian evolution of the Greenland ice sheet by combining numerical modelling with insights obtained from recent central Greenland ice-core analyses. Our results suggest that the Greenland ice sheet was considerably smaller and steeper during the Eemian, and plausibly contributed 4-5.5...

Research paper thumbnail of Coupling ice-sheet and climate models for simulation of former ice sheets

Developments in Quaternary Sciences, 2003

Research paper thumbnail of Engaging Students in Atmospheric Science: A University-High School Collaboration in British Columbia, Canada

Journal of Geoscience Education, Mar 1, 2009

Research paper thumbnail of Simulation of Vatnaj�kull ice cap dynamics

Journal of Geophysical Research, 2005

Research paper thumbnail of Rapid Changes in Glaciers and Ice Sheets and their Impacts on Sea Level

Research paper thumbnail of Combining glaciological models and tracers for understanding ice core records in Antarctica

Understanding past climate over Antarctica and evaluating the isotopic composition of its large i... more Understanding past climate over Antarctica and evaluating the isotopic composition of its large ice sheets remain challenges to elucidate for the paleoclimatologists' community. The present work combines glaciological models of various degrees of complexity to estimate these quantities from recently drilled ice cores (Vostok, Dome C, Byrd...). A 1-D deposition model and a 2-D flow model are used in inverse

Research paper thumbnail of Simulating Arctic climate warmth and ice - field retreat in the last interglaciation

In the future, Arctic warming and the melting of polar glaciers will be considerable, but the mag... more In the future, Arctic warming and the melting of polar glaciers will be considerable, but the magnitude of both is uncertain. We used a global climate model, a dynamic ice sheet model, and paleoclimatic data to evaluate Northern Hemisphere high-latitude warming and its impact on Arctic icefields during the Last Interglaciation. Our simulated climate matches paleoclimatic observations of past warming, and the combination of physically based climate and ice-sheet modeling with ice-core constraints indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet and other circum-Arctic ice fields likely contributed 2.2 to 3.4 meters of sea-level rise during the Last Interglaciation.

Research paper thumbnail of Glaciology of Ice Age cycles: physical processes and modelling challenges

Research paper thumbnail of Meltwater run-off from Haig Glacier, Canadian Rocky Mountains, 2002–2013

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of Radiation Index Melt Modelling and Implications for the North American Deglaciation

A proper energy balance calculation of snow and ice melt is difficult to carry out in ice sheet m... more A proper energy balance calculation of snow and ice melt is difficult to carry out in ice sheet models due to the need for detailed meteorological data (i.e. wind conditions, cloud cover, etc.) that are unavailable for the past and too complex and spatially variable to be extracted from climate models. Ice sheet models therefore resort to more simple positive degree day (PDD) melt relationships to parameterize snow and ice melt from air temperature inputs for mass balance calculations. However, the PDD parameters that have been developed for use in ice sheet models are based on studies done in Greenland and the Canadian Arctic where temperatures are relatively low and radiation regimes different than those at lower latitudes. This becomes a problem in applications to the former Laurentide ice sheet, which was in radiation and temperature conditions possibly much different than those in which present relationships were established. The work presented here seeks to remedy the above pr...

Research paper thumbnail of Mechanisms of Global Climate Change at Millennial Time Scales

Geophysical Monograph Series, 2000

Research paper thumbnail of Modeling Langjokull ice cap through the Holocene

Seismic studies and coring of proglacial lake Hvítárvatn, central Iceland, have revealed a detail... more Seismic studies and coring of proglacial lake Hvítárvatn, central Iceland, have revealed a detailed sedimentological history from which Holocene environmental conditions can be interpreted. These records indicate decisive shifts in sediment provenance over the last 10,000 years, which in turn provide constraints on the distribution and activity of ice in the Hvítárvatn catchment. The emerging interpretation is that the Hvítárvatn catchment was ice-free in the early Holocene, with Langjökull ice cap reaching its Holocene maximum during the Little Ice Age. To assess the validity of this interpretation from a glaciological standpoint, we use numerical models of ice dynamics and hydrology to investigate the climatic conditions under which the proposed glacial history is possible. The structure of temporal fluctuations in air temperature through the Holocene are taken from the NGRIP oxygen isotope record and referenced to a spatially-resolved 1961--1990 temperature map of the area. A ref...

Research paper thumbnail of Assessment of current methods of positive degree-day calculation using in situ observations from glaciated regions

Journal of Glaciology

The continued use of the positive degree-day (PDD) method to predict ice-sheet melt is generally ... more The continued use of the positive degree-day (PDD) method to predict ice-sheet melt is generally favoured over surface energy-balance methods partly due to the computational efficiency of the algorithm and the requirement of only one input variable (temperature). In this paper, we revisit some of the assumptions governing the application of the PDD method. Using hourly temperature data from the GC-Net network we test the assumption that monthly PDD total (PDDM) can be represented by a Gaussian distribution with fixed standard deviation of monthly temperature (σ M). The results presented here show that the common assumption of fixed σ M does not hold, and that σ M may be represented more accurately as a quadratic function of average monthly temperature. For Greenland, the mean absolute error in predicting PDDM using our methodology is 3.9°C d, representing a significant improvement on current methods (7.8°C d, when σ M = 4.5°C). Over a range of glaciated settings, our method reproduc...

Research paper thumbnail of Modelling the Northward Expansion of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) under Future Climate Scenarios

Research paper thumbnail of Modelled nucleation centres of the Pleistocene ice sheets from an ice sheet model with subgrid topographic and glaciologic parameterizations

Quaternary International, 2002

Research paper thumbnail of Modelling Glacier Response to Climate Change

Glacier Science and Environmental Change, 2006

This chapter focuses on the coupling of glacier and climate models for simulation of glacier and ... more This chapter focuses on the coupling of glacier and climate models for simulation of glacier and icefield response to climate change. Sections 32.2 and 32.3 summarize glacier mass balance and ice dynamics considerations, concentrating on concepts that are central to ...

Research paper thumbnail of Cryosphere cryosphere , Modeling cryosphere modeling of

Encyclopedia of Sustainability Science and Technology, 2012

Research paper thumbnail of Estimation of glacial melt contributions to the Bow River, Alberta, Canada, using a radiation–temperature melt model

Annals of Glaciology, 2014

ABSTRACT Alberta's Bow River has its headwaters in the glaciated eastern slopes of the Ca... more ABSTRACT Alberta's Bow River has its headwaters in the glaciated eastern slopes of the Canadian Rockies and is a major source of water in southern Alberta. Glacial retreat, declining snowpacks and increased water demand are all expected in the coming century, yet there are relatively few studies focusing on quantifying glacial meltwater in the Bow River. We develop a new radiation–temperature melt model for modelling distributed glacier mass balance and runoff in the Bow River basin. The model reflects physical processes through the incorporation of near-surface air temperature and absorbed radiation, while avoiding problems of collinearity through the use of a radiation-decorrelated temperature index. The model is calibrated at Haig Glacier in the southern portion of the basin and validated at Haig and Peyto Glaciers. Application of the model to the entire Bow River basin for 2000–09 shows glacier ice melt is equivalent to 3% of annual discharge in Calgary on average. Modelled ice melt in August is equal to 8–20% of the August Bow River discharge in Calgary. This emphasizes the importance of glacier runoff to late-summer streamflow in the region, particularly in warm, dry years.

Research paper thumbnail of Temperature Lapse Rates in Glacierized Basins

Encyclopedia of Earth Sciences Series, 2011

Research paper thumbnail of Climate change. Glacier retreat crosses a line

Science (New York, N.Y.), Jan 22, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of Substantial contribution to sea-level rise during the last interglacial from the Greenland ice sheet

Nature, Jan 6, 2000

During the last interglacial period (the Eemian), global sea level was at least three metres, and... more During the last interglacial period (the Eemian), global sea level was at least three metres, and probably more than five metres, higher than at present. Complete melting of either the West Antarctic ice sheet or the Greenland ice sheet would today raise sea levels by 6-7 metres. But the high sea levels during the last interglacial period have been proposed to result mainly from disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet, with model studies attributing only 1-2 m of sea-level rise to meltwater from Greenland. This result was considered consistent with ice core evidence, although earlier work had suggested a much reduced Greenland ice sheet during the last interglacial period. Here we reconsider the Eemian evolution of the Greenland ice sheet by combining numerical modelling with insights obtained from recent central Greenland ice-core analyses. Our results suggest that the Greenland ice sheet was considerably smaller and steeper during the Eemian, and plausibly contributed 4-5.5...

Research paper thumbnail of Coupling ice-sheet and climate models for simulation of former ice sheets

Developments in Quaternary Sciences, 2003