Harutyun Shahumyan | University College Dublin (original) (raw)
Books by Harutyun Shahumyan
Rapid urbanization and growing agriculture with accompanying land use transitions can substantial... more Rapid urbanization and growing agriculture with accompanying land use transitions can substantially impact on water quality in a region. Hence, decision makers need adequate tools to better understand and evaluate the effects of policy interventions on water management and quality control in urban regions. Developing a new state-of-the-art model is an expensive process. Calibrating a comprehensive model for a new study region is also time-consuming task. Instead, coupling already existing and tested models for a region may offer an effective solution to support integrated decision making. This research demonstrates how independently developed land use model MOLAND and Source Load Apportionment Model SLAM are loosely coupled to estimate annual nutrient emissions to water in case of different regional development scenarios. The relative change in nitrogen and phosphorus emissions from diffuse sources was compared, and water quality implications were discussed.
Traditional cellular automata (CA) based models of land use change represent only local processes... more Traditional cellular automata (CA) based models of land use change represent only local processes. Processes operating over longer distances are captured in traditional spatial interaction based models; these are then linked to the CA so that the linked models cover a range of scales. An alternative approach presented here includes processes operating at all scales within the CA model itself. This is done by increasing the size of the cell neighbourhood to include the entire modelled area, so that long range effects are included in the cellular transition functions. In order for this approach to be computationally reasonable, a variable grid is used, so that as the distance from the centre of a cell neighbourhood increases, the size of cells in the neighbourhood also increases, with cells of successive Moore rings, n, of a cell neighbourhood scaling as 3n from the basic raster cell size. Since all Moore rings but the smallest consist of composite cells, in general the state of neighbourhood cells must be characterized by a vector of activity levels, where each cell of the raster level is assigned a quantity of the activity corresponding to its land use (e.g. each residential cell is assigned a population). Tests of this approach show that it gives clearly better predictions of both land use patterns and regional activity levels (e.g. regional populations) when compared with conventional approaches. It is also “riskier” in the Popperian sense and thus more powerful as an explanatory tool.
Papers by Harutyun Shahumyan
Identification of a key indicators capturing essential patterns in a region can be a cost-effecti... more Identification of a key indicators capturing essential patterns in a region can be a cost-effective solution for neighborhood classification and targeted policy making. Yet, such a " core " set of indicators can vary from region to region. Here, we define set of indicators measuring education, housing, accessibility , and employment which can be used to classify neighborhoods. We test these indicators in two study regions: the Baltimore Metropolitan Area and the Greater Dublin Region. We apply factor analysis to distill indicators to smaller sets that capture differences in neighborhood types in terms of social, economic, and environmental dimensions. We use factors loadings in cluster analyzes to identify unique neighborhood types spatially. Comparison of the core set of indicators and clustering patterns for case study regions sheds new lights on the important factors for both regions. The proposed approach will help compare variations in neighborhood types between and within different regions internationally.
Symposium on Applied Urban Modelling (AUM), June 22-23, 2017, Cambridge, UK, 2017
Official population and land cover data for 2012 was used to revalidate the MOLAND model calibrat... more Official population and land cover data for 2012 was used to revalidate the MOLAND model calibration implemented for the Greater Dublin Region based on the datasets of 1990, 2000 and 2006. While initially it was assumed that parameter values from the 2000-2006 calibration period would be more relevant for future scenario simulations; it was learned that after economic crisis and recent recovery in Ireland, 1990-2006 calibration parameter values give more accurate results. Calibration and validation are necessary and important processes for the practical application of most urban models. In general, calibration is an iterative procedure of a model parameter valuation based on comparison of the simulated and observed values. Validation is an extension of the calibration procedure. It is intended to assure that the calibrated model properly assesses all the variables and conditions which can affect model results, and demonstrate the ability to predict observations for periods separate from those included in the calibration effort.
International Journal of Business Intelligence and Data Mining, 2017
This research aims to provide a robust evidence base contributing to improving the quality of pol... more This research aims to provide a robust evidence base contributing to improving the quality of policy formation from local to national level in Ireland. The distributions of businesses within key economic sectors in Ireland are explored aiming to find clustering effects occurring across the country. The density mapping and hot spot analysis approaches were applied to find statistically significant clusters of companies for specific business sectors. The research was implemented in collaboration with Dublin Regional Authority and Dublin City Council to inform key policy makers in Ireland. It assists in the assessments of the nationwide spatial distribution of economic activities adding to the overall body of evidence on business intensive regions. The results show the continued statistically proven significance of the main urban growth centres or gateways as key centres for the main business sectors in Ireland, while public policy has prioritised rebalancing economic development to other regions.
Single models do not usually provide all answers required for complex policy decisions, so an int... more Single models do not usually provide all answers required for complex policy decisions, so an integrated modelling is often applied to inform policy makers and urban planners. Developing a fully integrated model is an expensive and time consuming task, thus, coupling existing models is often used for model integration. The paper provides an overview of potential model integration approaches, briefly describes the Simple Integrated Land Use Orchestrator (SILO) model and the Chesapeake Bay Land Change Model (CBLCM), and focuses on the integration method applied to link those models. Particularly, Python wrappers were developed to loosely couple SILO and CBLCM; while ArcGIS Model Builder was used to provide a graphical user interface. The suggested approach is especially efficient when the models are developed in different programming languages, their source code is not available or the licensing restrictions make other coupling approaches infeasible. Land use and land cover models form critical elements in understanding location choice and its impact on the environment. Traditionally land use models have been used in conjunction with transportation models, enabling modellers to estimate the origins and destinations of trips, the location of demand and how residential and employment location interact with the transportation system. Land cover models, on the other hand, focus on the usage of the land; whether it is agricultural, forest, housing, employment or any one of a wide range of covers. While these types of models have evolved from different needs and disciplines and may be applied for different purposes, the outputs of these two types of models are closely related and can contribute each other. In analysing policies it is important that the results of these models be reasonable consistent with each other. In this paper we explore a method to link a residential location choice model, the Simple Integrated Land Use Orchestrator (SILO) with the Chesapeake Bay Land Change Model (CBLCM), a model which predicts land cover at the parcel level. We address how these linkages can be made, the analytic and software challenges of making these linkages, and the results from linking these models together. 2 MODELS 2.1 Simple Integrated Land Use Orchestrator (SILO) SILO is a microscopic discrete choice land use model 1. The model consists of three main modules, namely household relocation, demography and real estate development. The core module is household 1 The model is described in more detail at www.silo.zone.
It is an expensive and time-consuming task to develop a new model. Furthermore, a single model of... more It is an expensive and time-consuming task to develop a new model. Furthermore, a single model often cannot provide answers required for complex decision making based on multiple criteria. Coupling models are often applied to make use of existing models and analyze complex policy questions. This paper provides an overview of possible model integration approaches, briefly explains the modules that were integrated in a particular application, and focuses on the integration methods applied in this research. While the initial attempt was to integrate all models as tightly as possible, the authors developed a much more agile integration approach that allows adding and replacing individual modules easily. Python wrappers were developed to loosely couple land use, land cover, transportation, and emission models developed in different environments. ArcGIS Model Builder was used to provide a graphical user interface and to present the models’ workflow. The suggested approach is especially efficient when the models are developed in different programming languages, their source codes are not available, or the licensing restrictions make other coupling approaches impractical.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, Jan 4, 2016
Natural hazards, such as major flood events, are occurring with increasing frequency and inflicti... more Natural hazards, such as major flood events, are occurring with increasing frequency and inflicting increasing levels of financial damages upon affected communities. The experience of such major flood events has brought about a significant change in attitudes to flood-risk management, with a shift away from built engineering solutions alone towards a more multifaceted approach. Europe's experience with damaging flood episodes provided the impetus for the introduction of the European Floods Directive, requiring the establishment of flood-risk management plans at the river-basin scale. The effectiveness of such plans, focusing on prevention, protection, and preparedness, is dependent on adequate flood awareness and preparedness, and this is related to perception of flood risk. This is an important factor in the design and assessment of flood-risk management. Whilst there is a modern body of literature exploring flood perception issues, there have been few examples that explore its...
Transport infrastructure improvements are frequently dealt without adequate consideration of land... more Transport infrastructure improvements are frequently dealt without adequate consideration of land-use management issues. Theoretically, this would not appear to be consistent with urban economic theory which prioritises the critical role that transportation plays in all urban economic spatial land-use patterns. This linkage between transport and land-use is clear in the evolution of theory from central place theory through to concentric theory and to modern thinking in economic development based on agglomeration and synergy effects. Additional complexities arise in cases where such investments are across administrative borders / jurisdictions or national borders which necessitate collaborative working – and detailed research.
Environmental perceptions are central to individuals’ behavioural interactions with the environme... more Environmental perceptions are central to individuals’ behavioural interactions with the environment. Cognitive maps, portraying a spatial representation of an individual’s environmental perception, can be aggregated to gain insight into the collective environmental perception of groups and populations. This paper uses cognitive mapping techniques to examine one aspect of environmental perception, flood risk perception, within a residential population (n = 305). Flood risk perception was examined for the whole sample and six subgroup pairs. Using subgroups allowed examination of how factors previously shown
to influence flood risk perception influence the cognitive map production in this population. We use a novel technique (slope analysis) to examine how the population’s perception of flood risk compares with expert assessments of flood risk, and compare the results of this novel technique with a commonly used cognitive map analysis technique (majority threshold method). Both methods identify areas where there is consensus within the population as to which areas are at risk of flooding. However, slope analysis usefully identifies areas where the population’s perception of flood risk lacks consensus, and is at odds with expert assessments of flood risk, without the loss of information
inherent in the majority threshold method. Thus, this technique provides a novel approach to studies of environmental perception that can be widely applied within many fields.
Europe's urban life focuses around a major network of cities, which ex-change population, goo... more Europe's urban life focuses around a major network of cities, which ex-change population, goods, and services of every kind both within regions and across borders. By their very nature, urban questions thus have a trans-national dimension, and constitute a fruitful area of European cooperation. The growth of urban areas is associated with accessibility to transportation routes, and has become the most important factor in landscape and land use change throughout Europe. Apart from providing links between cities, transport corridors are also extensions of cities' functionality which allow the population to benefit from essential facilities offered by functional ur-banised areas which can include other cities. But, they often exacerbate ur-ban sprawl into new urban areas. Visible impacts of motorway based urban sprawl are apparent in countries or regions with rapid economic growth and in the New Member States (MS) where a new phase of urbanization is un-derway, dramatically cha...
Ecological Indicators, 2016
This research aims to provide a robust evidence base contributing to improving the quality of pol... more This research aims to provide a robust evidence base contributing to improving the quality of policy formation from local to national level in Ireland. The distributions of businesses within key economic sectors in Ireland are explored aiming to find clustering effects occurring across the country. The density mapping and hot spot analysis approaches were applied to find statistically significant clusters of companies for specific business sectors. The research was implemented in collaboration with Dublin Regional Authority to inform key policy makers in Ireland. It assists in assessments of the nationwide spatial distribution of economic activities adding to the overall body of evidence on business intensive regions.
Environmental Practice, 2013
ABSTRACT Indicators can contribute to land use management, particularly in the context of sustain... more ABSTRACT Indicators can contribute to land use management, particularly in the context of sustainable urban development. Together with scenario analysis, they are key instruments in producing information for stakeholders and policy makers and aid their understanding of urban development processes. Based on such information, stakeholders and policy makers can understand better the driving forces, the current state of urban development, how their decision can influence the future trends, and what impacts their decisions can have on the urban landscape. This article presents an application of scenario modeling and indicator evaluation for sustainable land use management in the Greater Dublin Region, based on discussions with scientists, policy makers, and stakeholders in order to guarantee its relevance to practice. This research was a core contribution to the Strategic Environmental Assessment and the Habitats Directive Appropriate Assessment procedures (areas for conservation and protection) for the 2010 Regional Planning Guidelines for Dublin.Environmental Practice 15:19–32 (2013)
Planning Practice and Research, 2012
Ensuring adequate provision of waste water treatment facilities in a rapidly growing urban area i... more Ensuring adequate provision of waste water treatment facilities in a rapidly growing urban area is a complex task. This article analyses the key legislation and planning frameworks which underpin the provision of new treatment facilities in Ireland and the extension of existing facilities as well as the mechanisms for mobilizing investment therein. Using the MOLAND model, the spatial distribution of three population projections for the Greater Dublin Region are examined and how this will impact on planned future capacity and defined catchment areas in two specific cases is discussed.
Medium resolution (MR) satellite images are ideally suited for mapping spatial patterns of the bu... more Medium resolution (MR) satellite images are ideally suited for mapping spatial patterns of the built environment and their changes through time. Because urban form and function are closely related, a time-series of MR images is also useful to infer historical land-use patterns, which is required for calibrating urban growth models. As the structural detail that can be resolved from imagery inevitably depends on spatial resolution, the research presented in this paper intends to examine the effect of image resolution on the accuracy with which land use can be derived. To this end, a supervised classification strategy using spatial metric based signatures derived from continuous impervious surface maps was applied separately on a Landsat ETM+ image (30m resolution) and a SPOT 5 image (10m resolution). Results indicate that although broad land-use classes could not be further subdivided on an image of higher resolution, the distinction between these classes clearly improved when the SPOT 5 image was used instead of Landsat.
The MOLAND land use model was used in several studies to simulate possible scenarios of future se... more The MOLAND land use model was used in several studies to simulate possible scenarios of future settlement patterns in the Greater Dublin Region (GDR). This paper compares the results of three different research outputs with ten possible scenarios for GDR urban development. Brief descriptions of the scenarios and probability maps combining these scenarios are presented. The suggested approach of scenario analysis can be used by planners and decision makers to get an idea of the most likely development areas in the region if several scenarios are under consideration. In addition, probability maps help to find areas where the decisions could have the most influence on development patterns with minimal efforts.
Rapid urbanization and growing agriculture with accompanying land use transitions can substantial... more Rapid urbanization and growing agriculture with accompanying land use transitions can substantially impact on water quality in a region. Hence, decision makers need adequate tools to better understand and evaluate the effects of policy interventions on water management and quality control in urban regions. Developing a new state-of-the-art model is an expensive process. Calibrating a comprehensive model for a new study region is also time-consuming task. Instead, coupling already existing and tested models for a region may offer an effective solution to support integrated decision making. This research demonstrates how independently developed land use model MOLAND and Source Load Apportionment Model SLAM are loosely coupled to estimate annual nutrient emissions to water in case of different regional development scenarios. The relative change in nitrogen and phosphorus emissions from diffuse sources was compared, and water quality implications were discussed.
Traditional cellular automata (CA) based models of land use change represent only local processes... more Traditional cellular automata (CA) based models of land use change represent only local processes. Processes operating over longer distances are captured in traditional spatial interaction based models; these are then linked to the CA so that the linked models cover a range of scales. An alternative approach presented here includes processes operating at all scales within the CA model itself. This is done by increasing the size of the cell neighbourhood to include the entire modelled area, so that long range effects are included in the cellular transition functions. In order for this approach to be computationally reasonable, a variable grid is used, so that as the distance from the centre of a cell neighbourhood increases, the size of cells in the neighbourhood also increases, with cells of successive Moore rings, n, of a cell neighbourhood scaling as 3n from the basic raster cell size. Since all Moore rings but the smallest consist of composite cells, in general the state of neighbourhood cells must be characterized by a vector of activity levels, where each cell of the raster level is assigned a quantity of the activity corresponding to its land use (e.g. each residential cell is assigned a population). Tests of this approach show that it gives clearly better predictions of both land use patterns and regional activity levels (e.g. regional populations) when compared with conventional approaches. It is also “riskier” in the Popperian sense and thus more powerful as an explanatory tool.
Identification of a key indicators capturing essential patterns in a region can be a cost-effecti... more Identification of a key indicators capturing essential patterns in a region can be a cost-effective solution for neighborhood classification and targeted policy making. Yet, such a " core " set of indicators can vary from region to region. Here, we define set of indicators measuring education, housing, accessibility , and employment which can be used to classify neighborhoods. We test these indicators in two study regions: the Baltimore Metropolitan Area and the Greater Dublin Region. We apply factor analysis to distill indicators to smaller sets that capture differences in neighborhood types in terms of social, economic, and environmental dimensions. We use factors loadings in cluster analyzes to identify unique neighborhood types spatially. Comparison of the core set of indicators and clustering patterns for case study regions sheds new lights on the important factors for both regions. The proposed approach will help compare variations in neighborhood types between and within different regions internationally.
Symposium on Applied Urban Modelling (AUM), June 22-23, 2017, Cambridge, UK, 2017
Official population and land cover data for 2012 was used to revalidate the MOLAND model calibrat... more Official population and land cover data for 2012 was used to revalidate the MOLAND model calibration implemented for the Greater Dublin Region based on the datasets of 1990, 2000 and 2006. While initially it was assumed that parameter values from the 2000-2006 calibration period would be more relevant for future scenario simulations; it was learned that after economic crisis and recent recovery in Ireland, 1990-2006 calibration parameter values give more accurate results. Calibration and validation are necessary and important processes for the practical application of most urban models. In general, calibration is an iterative procedure of a model parameter valuation based on comparison of the simulated and observed values. Validation is an extension of the calibration procedure. It is intended to assure that the calibrated model properly assesses all the variables and conditions which can affect model results, and demonstrate the ability to predict observations for periods separate from those included in the calibration effort.
International Journal of Business Intelligence and Data Mining, 2017
This research aims to provide a robust evidence base contributing to improving the quality of pol... more This research aims to provide a robust evidence base contributing to improving the quality of policy formation from local to national level in Ireland. The distributions of businesses within key economic sectors in Ireland are explored aiming to find clustering effects occurring across the country. The density mapping and hot spot analysis approaches were applied to find statistically significant clusters of companies for specific business sectors. The research was implemented in collaboration with Dublin Regional Authority and Dublin City Council to inform key policy makers in Ireland. It assists in the assessments of the nationwide spatial distribution of economic activities adding to the overall body of evidence on business intensive regions. The results show the continued statistically proven significance of the main urban growth centres or gateways as key centres for the main business sectors in Ireland, while public policy has prioritised rebalancing economic development to other regions.
Single models do not usually provide all answers required for complex policy decisions, so an int... more Single models do not usually provide all answers required for complex policy decisions, so an integrated modelling is often applied to inform policy makers and urban planners. Developing a fully integrated model is an expensive and time consuming task, thus, coupling existing models is often used for model integration. The paper provides an overview of potential model integration approaches, briefly describes the Simple Integrated Land Use Orchestrator (SILO) model and the Chesapeake Bay Land Change Model (CBLCM), and focuses on the integration method applied to link those models. Particularly, Python wrappers were developed to loosely couple SILO and CBLCM; while ArcGIS Model Builder was used to provide a graphical user interface. The suggested approach is especially efficient when the models are developed in different programming languages, their source code is not available or the licensing restrictions make other coupling approaches infeasible. Land use and land cover models form critical elements in understanding location choice and its impact on the environment. Traditionally land use models have been used in conjunction with transportation models, enabling modellers to estimate the origins and destinations of trips, the location of demand and how residential and employment location interact with the transportation system. Land cover models, on the other hand, focus on the usage of the land; whether it is agricultural, forest, housing, employment or any one of a wide range of covers. While these types of models have evolved from different needs and disciplines and may be applied for different purposes, the outputs of these two types of models are closely related and can contribute each other. In analysing policies it is important that the results of these models be reasonable consistent with each other. In this paper we explore a method to link a residential location choice model, the Simple Integrated Land Use Orchestrator (SILO) with the Chesapeake Bay Land Change Model (CBLCM), a model which predicts land cover at the parcel level. We address how these linkages can be made, the analytic and software challenges of making these linkages, and the results from linking these models together. 2 MODELS 2.1 Simple Integrated Land Use Orchestrator (SILO) SILO is a microscopic discrete choice land use model 1. The model consists of three main modules, namely household relocation, demography and real estate development. The core module is household 1 The model is described in more detail at www.silo.zone.
It is an expensive and time-consuming task to develop a new model. Furthermore, a single model of... more It is an expensive and time-consuming task to develop a new model. Furthermore, a single model often cannot provide answers required for complex decision making based on multiple criteria. Coupling models are often applied to make use of existing models and analyze complex policy questions. This paper provides an overview of possible model integration approaches, briefly explains the modules that were integrated in a particular application, and focuses on the integration methods applied in this research. While the initial attempt was to integrate all models as tightly as possible, the authors developed a much more agile integration approach that allows adding and replacing individual modules easily. Python wrappers were developed to loosely couple land use, land cover, transportation, and emission models developed in different environments. ArcGIS Model Builder was used to provide a graphical user interface and to present the models’ workflow. The suggested approach is especially efficient when the models are developed in different programming languages, their source codes are not available, or the licensing restrictions make other coupling approaches impractical.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, Jan 4, 2016
Natural hazards, such as major flood events, are occurring with increasing frequency and inflicti... more Natural hazards, such as major flood events, are occurring with increasing frequency and inflicting increasing levels of financial damages upon affected communities. The experience of such major flood events has brought about a significant change in attitudes to flood-risk management, with a shift away from built engineering solutions alone towards a more multifaceted approach. Europe's experience with damaging flood episodes provided the impetus for the introduction of the European Floods Directive, requiring the establishment of flood-risk management plans at the river-basin scale. The effectiveness of such plans, focusing on prevention, protection, and preparedness, is dependent on adequate flood awareness and preparedness, and this is related to perception of flood risk. This is an important factor in the design and assessment of flood-risk management. Whilst there is a modern body of literature exploring flood perception issues, there have been few examples that explore its...
Transport infrastructure improvements are frequently dealt without adequate consideration of land... more Transport infrastructure improvements are frequently dealt without adequate consideration of land-use management issues. Theoretically, this would not appear to be consistent with urban economic theory which prioritises the critical role that transportation plays in all urban economic spatial land-use patterns. This linkage between transport and land-use is clear in the evolution of theory from central place theory through to concentric theory and to modern thinking in economic development based on agglomeration and synergy effects. Additional complexities arise in cases where such investments are across administrative borders / jurisdictions or national borders which necessitate collaborative working – and detailed research.
Environmental perceptions are central to individuals’ behavioural interactions with the environme... more Environmental perceptions are central to individuals’ behavioural interactions with the environment. Cognitive maps, portraying a spatial representation of an individual’s environmental perception, can be aggregated to gain insight into the collective environmental perception of groups and populations. This paper uses cognitive mapping techniques to examine one aspect of environmental perception, flood risk perception, within a residential population (n = 305). Flood risk perception was examined for the whole sample and six subgroup pairs. Using subgroups allowed examination of how factors previously shown
to influence flood risk perception influence the cognitive map production in this population. We use a novel technique (slope analysis) to examine how the population’s perception of flood risk compares with expert assessments of flood risk, and compare the results of this novel technique with a commonly used cognitive map analysis technique (majority threshold method). Both methods identify areas where there is consensus within the population as to which areas are at risk of flooding. However, slope analysis usefully identifies areas where the population’s perception of flood risk lacks consensus, and is at odds with expert assessments of flood risk, without the loss of information
inherent in the majority threshold method. Thus, this technique provides a novel approach to studies of environmental perception that can be widely applied within many fields.
Europe's urban life focuses around a major network of cities, which ex-change population, goo... more Europe's urban life focuses around a major network of cities, which ex-change population, goods, and services of every kind both within regions and across borders. By their very nature, urban questions thus have a trans-national dimension, and constitute a fruitful area of European cooperation. The growth of urban areas is associated with accessibility to transportation routes, and has become the most important factor in landscape and land use change throughout Europe. Apart from providing links between cities, transport corridors are also extensions of cities' functionality which allow the population to benefit from essential facilities offered by functional ur-banised areas which can include other cities. But, they often exacerbate ur-ban sprawl into new urban areas. Visible impacts of motorway based urban sprawl are apparent in countries or regions with rapid economic growth and in the New Member States (MS) where a new phase of urbanization is un-derway, dramatically cha...
Ecological Indicators, 2016
This research aims to provide a robust evidence base contributing to improving the quality of pol... more This research aims to provide a robust evidence base contributing to improving the quality of policy formation from local to national level in Ireland. The distributions of businesses within key economic sectors in Ireland are explored aiming to find clustering effects occurring across the country. The density mapping and hot spot analysis approaches were applied to find statistically significant clusters of companies for specific business sectors. The research was implemented in collaboration with Dublin Regional Authority to inform key policy makers in Ireland. It assists in assessments of the nationwide spatial distribution of economic activities adding to the overall body of evidence on business intensive regions.
Environmental Practice, 2013
ABSTRACT Indicators can contribute to land use management, particularly in the context of sustain... more ABSTRACT Indicators can contribute to land use management, particularly in the context of sustainable urban development. Together with scenario analysis, they are key instruments in producing information for stakeholders and policy makers and aid their understanding of urban development processes. Based on such information, stakeholders and policy makers can understand better the driving forces, the current state of urban development, how their decision can influence the future trends, and what impacts their decisions can have on the urban landscape. This article presents an application of scenario modeling and indicator evaluation for sustainable land use management in the Greater Dublin Region, based on discussions with scientists, policy makers, and stakeholders in order to guarantee its relevance to practice. This research was a core contribution to the Strategic Environmental Assessment and the Habitats Directive Appropriate Assessment procedures (areas for conservation and protection) for the 2010 Regional Planning Guidelines for Dublin.Environmental Practice 15:19–32 (2013)
Planning Practice and Research, 2012
Ensuring adequate provision of waste water treatment facilities in a rapidly growing urban area i... more Ensuring adequate provision of waste water treatment facilities in a rapidly growing urban area is a complex task. This article analyses the key legislation and planning frameworks which underpin the provision of new treatment facilities in Ireland and the extension of existing facilities as well as the mechanisms for mobilizing investment therein. Using the MOLAND model, the spatial distribution of three population projections for the Greater Dublin Region are examined and how this will impact on planned future capacity and defined catchment areas in two specific cases is discussed.
Medium resolution (MR) satellite images are ideally suited for mapping spatial patterns of the bu... more Medium resolution (MR) satellite images are ideally suited for mapping spatial patterns of the built environment and their changes through time. Because urban form and function are closely related, a time-series of MR images is also useful to infer historical land-use patterns, which is required for calibrating urban growth models. As the structural detail that can be resolved from imagery inevitably depends on spatial resolution, the research presented in this paper intends to examine the effect of image resolution on the accuracy with which land use can be derived. To this end, a supervised classification strategy using spatial metric based signatures derived from continuous impervious surface maps was applied separately on a Landsat ETM+ image (30m resolution) and a SPOT 5 image (10m resolution). Results indicate that although broad land-use classes could not be further subdivided on an image of higher resolution, the distinction between these classes clearly improved when the SPOT 5 image was used instead of Landsat.
The MOLAND land use model was used in several studies to simulate possible scenarios of future se... more The MOLAND land use model was used in several studies to simulate possible scenarios of future settlement patterns in the Greater Dublin Region (GDR). This paper compares the results of three different research outputs with ten possible scenarios for GDR urban development. Brief descriptions of the scenarios and probability maps combining these scenarios are presented. The suggested approach of scenario analysis can be used by planners and decision makers to get an idea of the most likely development areas in the region if several scenarios are under consideration. In addition, probability maps help to find areas where the decisions could have the most influence on development patterns with minimal efforts.
Management strategies and tools are needed to mitigate the environmental impacts of urban areas. ... more Management strategies and tools are needed to mitigate the environmental impacts of urban areas. In the past few decades, researchers have made considerable progress in improving the capabilities and usefulness of GIS for urban management and policy evaluation. However, there is a lack of tools available to compare and contrast policy scenarios, particularly tools which integrate land use, transport and socio-economic variables. MOLAND is one such tool which has been developed to support decision-makers working within policy and planning development. It is a Cellular Automata based model sponsored by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre. MOLAND uses layers created by ArcGIS and runs on a modelling framework, Geonamica© which allows dynamic integration of a variety of spatial models. The model has already been applied in over 20 territories in Europe and is currently being applied in Ireland by the Urban Environment Project funded by the Environmental Protection Agency Ireland.
Ensuring adequate provision of waste water treatment facilities in a rapidly growing urban area i... more Ensuring adequate provision of waste water treatment facilities in a rapidly growing urban area is a complex task. This article analyses the key legislation and planning frameworks which underpin the provision of new treatment facilities in Ireland and the extension of existing facilities as well as the mechanisms for mobilizing investment therein. Using the MOLAND model, the spatial distribution of three population projections for the Greater Dublin Region are examined and how this will impact on planned future capacity and defined catchment areas in two specific cases is discussed.
For European urban regional planning, the Impact Assessment tools are used to understand the curr... more For European urban regional planning, the Impact Assessment tools are used to understand the current situation and to explore concerns about the future of the world. This paper presents the results of scenario modelling and relevant indicators for urban and regional development. Within Europe, Ireland is experiencing one of the severest recessions. It has undergone substantial changes over the past three decades: recession in the 1980s, boom in the 1990s and economic collapse at the end of the 2000s [1]. Over these periods there have been substantial land use changes and population variation [2]. Particularly, the paper investigates the Greater Dublin Region of Ireland where urban development has been intensive and poorly controlled, leading to changes in its spatial configuration and particularly the preponderance of a sprawl type pattern of development. These initial results provide also a platform for a methodology to be used by the two communities of scientists and stakeholders/policy-makers in the application of scenario technique, modeling and indicators approaches towards developing solutions to real world environmental and land use management problems. Proposals for its future development and suggestions for further research are explored.
The land use model MOLAND was used in several studies to simulate possible scenarios of future se... more The land use model MOLAND was used in several studies to simulate possible scenarios of future settlement patterns in the Greater Dublin Region (GDR). This paper compares the results of three different research outputs with ten possible scenarios for GDR urban development. Brief descriptions of the scenarios and probability maps combining these scenarios are presented. The suggested approach of scenario analysis can be used by planners and decision makers to get an idea of the most likely development areas in the region if several scenarios are under consideration. In addition, probability maps help to find areas where the decisions could have the most influence on development patterns with minimal efforts.
"This piece of research was carried out to examine the role that the Dublin city region has in th... more "This piece of research was carried out to examine the role that the Dublin city region has in the national context and its value to Ireland as a global city of scale. The process through which this was achieved was firstly by examining available data and then by using this data to produce a spatial analytical assessment of Dublin’s role. This was followed by structured discussions with key policy makers and economic development stakeholders in the city region to explore key issues, existing datasets and international benchmarks of performance.
In order to set a context for this work the dynamics of urban growth, demographic trends and urban economics are explained in brief. In this context the synthesis then extracts some of the key findings and results of the research and presents an initial suite of recommendations. It is intended that the findings of this research will provide a means through which policy makers can advance further policy development for the city region through a robust, renewable and extensive evidence base."
“Spatial Analytic Approaches Assessing Socio-Economic Development Of The Dublin Region Compared W... more “Spatial Analytic Approaches Assessing Socio-Economic Development Of The Dublin Region Compared With Other Regions In Ireland” Report and the spatial analysis therein can provide new information and assessments of the suitability of locations nationwide for investment in services, infrastructure, business formation and social infrastructure.
A key aim of the Report is to provide evidence mapping the spatial distribution of businesses by sector and areas with economic development potential and address the following issues:
What are the best locations nationally and regionally to ensure best economic and social return for investment of scare fiscal resources?
What geographic areas are exhibiting clustering effects which may assist viable business formation and the growth of a knowledge economy?
Where should future ancillary services such as in the areas of health, education and transport be located based on current patterns of development and opportunity?
What are the benefits that Dublin brings to other regions in Ireland and how can this be optimised?
The Report is methodological in nature and is designed to demonstrate the potential of applying the “big data” concept to evidence based policy formation.
Spatial patterns of selected socio-economic indicators were studied using Geographic Information System (GIS) and geo-spatial analysis. These include indicators such as population distribution, density and change, age dependency ratio, unemployment rate, spatial distribution of jobs, household vacancy rates, bus service coverage areas, etc.
Density mapping and Hot Spot analyses were carried out across broad economic sectors with a strong indication that Dublin is the dominant player in all key sectors except for Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing . Moreover, the dominance and importance of the main gateway settlements of Cork, Galway and Limerick is clearly evident across most sectors. This analysis indicates a general pattern of continuing urbanisation and the benefits of clustering effects and add to the strong evidence base supporting further investment in a small number of selected Gateways and Hubs. Additionally companies with Foreign Direct Investment were mapped based on the IDA Ireland database. This also confirmed international research findings that Dublin is the most attractive region in Ireland for foreign investment (OECD 2008). As Ireland’s only city region of recognised metropolitan scale Dublin is critical to the inflow of continued investment in Ireland and as a location for global and regional Multinational Enterprise headquarters.
The importance of Dublin as an investment location is supported by the Opportunity Mapping analysis carried out in this research. This is a new approach for presenting spatial distribution of economic, educational and neighbourhood opportunities in the country and thus the more appropriate locations for economic investment in a national context. These maps combine series of variables into a single measurement which indicates the level of opportunity for economic and social progression within neighbourhoods as summarised by ED level. It should be noted in that summarising results to ED level it is intended to provide a level of disaggregation which is appropriate to the specification of this research and more prescriptive research to small area may be required in location specific analysis. Opportunity Maps are in their infancy and as such are a relatively undeveloped policy instrument at present. New and emerging data opportunities and more joined up data have potential to develop opportunity maps for the city region in the future which will be a major support to current decision-making processes in planning and development. The Opportunity Mapping is described in detail in Appendix 2 and Appendix 3.
While the indicators used for this report are representative only, they do point up the potential of forming a strong evidence base in terms of making the case for best return on capital investment, best broad-base location for businesses and the need to service future population growth. The research team also identified a number of key datasets (see Appendix 5) which in-combination with these opportunity maps would provide a clearer and more complete assessment of best location for investment and future critical services delivery.
The Report groups and analyses the wealth of quantitative evidence available on a regional basis... more The Report groups and analyses the wealth of quantitative evidence available on a regional basis relevant to the study aims and objectives. It lays the building blocks for business, demographic and economic analysis with spatial outputs. It collates the data of the Local Authorities, CSO (Central Statistics Office), Dublin City Council (DCC), ESRI, NTA (National Transport Agency), FORFAS, IDA, the Universities and Institutes, and other relevant sources.
Annual Meeting, Jan 1, 2007
The particular issues discussed here are: - Introduction to GIS and examples of its health relate... more The particular issues discussed here are:
- Introduction to GIS and examples of its health related application;
- Current status of GIS in Armenia;
- Presentation of organizations implementing GIS tasks in Armenia;
- Recommendation of possible GIS applications in health sector for more effective
analysis, decision making and planning purposes;
- Description of the Project NOVA-developed coding system used for communities and health facilities in Armenia, which supports data sharing and mapping activities and allows for the linking of different datasets into a unified information system.
The information provided here is based on different reports, publications, online resources and discussions with specialists from several organizations. This publication does not necessarily cover all existing GIS resources and organizations involved in health activities in Armenia.
The purpose of this report was to facilitate development of a GIS-based spatial database for the ... more The purpose of this report was to facilitate development of a GIS-based spatial database for the State Water Cadastre Information System of Armenia and provide digital base map layers for the stakeholder organizations.