Shaun Bowler | University of California, Riverside (original) (raw)

Papers by Shaun Bowler

Rallying for Immigrant Rights, 2011

Routledge eBooks, Sep 22, 2017

Oxford University Press eBooks, Aug 24, 2017

This chapter analyzes to what extent variation in political institutions affects political suppor... more This chapter analyzes to what extent variation in political institutions affects political support. The chapter observes that the existing research is not always clear on which institutions should produce what kind of effect, although a general expectation is that institutional arrangements improve political support when they give citizens an increased sense of connection to the political process. In general then, we should expect institutions that strengthen the quality of representation to strengthen political support. This general expectation is specified in six hypotheses that are tested using data from the ESS 2012. The chapter demonstrates that electoral systems that provide voters with more choice about candidates, multiparty governments, and “responsive” legislatures, correlate positively with political support. However, compared to other macro-level factors and individual characteristics, the effects of political institutions on political support are modest. The chapter concludes that the prospects for institutional reform to strengthen political support are limited.

Author(s): Camfield, Gregg; Bomotti, Gerry; Bowler, Shaun; Cowell, M. Elizabeth; Stringer, Jenn; ... more Author(s): Camfield, Gregg; Bomotti, Gerry; Bowler, Shaun; Cowell, M. Elizabeth; Stringer, Jenn; Waibel, Gunter; Watters Westbrook, Danielle

Parties Without Partisans, 2002

Assesses the degree to which parties still structure the legislative process. Party cohesion and ... more Assesses the degree to which parties still structure the legislative process. Party cohesion and party dominance within legislatures has usually been grounded in one of two explanations. One explanation sees legislative party discipline as a feature of the importance of party organization in fighting elections, which carries through to the legislative chamber itself, while a second explanation sees party discipline as a product of incentives facing individual legislators inside the legislative arena. The first argument would predict that party discipline inside the legislature should begin to falter because of the changes described in the previous chapters of this book. The second argument would predict that very little change should be seen and, further, that formal rules inside legislatures should underpin the importance of parties. In examining a range of behavioural data, such as roll‐call voting and internal Rules of Procedure, there is little evidence to support the view that ...

The Oxford Handbook of Political Institutions, 2008

This article views electoral systems and electoral system change from an institutional perspectiv... more This article views electoral systems and electoral system change from an institutional perspective. This perspective lends itself to a rational actor framework that highlights the strategic choices made by voters and political elites. This article has a central organizing theme, which is the way Duverger's Law can be taken to be the canonical statement of what electoral systems (as institutions) do and why the choice of electoral institutions is important. It discusses the changes in electoral systems and even the remarkable lack of change in electoral systems worldwide.

A long-standing criticism of voters in direct democracy elections is that they lack informed and ... more A long-standing criticism of voters in direct democracy elections is that they lack informed and stable opinions on policy issues and are therefore highly susceptible to campaigns. Voters are therefore not so much persuaded by substantive arguments to vote in a way that is consistent with fixed policy views but instead are pushed and pulled to vote for and against ballot measures since the foundations of their preferences rest on inconsistent and incomplete ideologies. Voters in ballot proposition contests are, in other words, persuaded all too easily to change their views. This chapter reviews that argument and presents evidence for a counter-argument that voters—at least in the US setting—are less open to persuasion than the literature often suggests.

Using data from the UK General Election Surveys of 1983 and 1987, we present a critical test of d... more Using data from the UK General Election Surveys of 1983 and 1987, we present a critical test of different approaches to tactical voting. Specifically, we are concerned with how the competitive situation in each constituency affects voters' likelihood of voting tactically, as well as the role of voters' attitudes and personal characteristics. We find that voters are less sensitive to the actual marginality of a district than to whether or not their party has a chance of winning the seat. In addition, we find that party identification, and particularly intense loyalty, dampen the tendency to vote tactically, regardless of the type of district. We also consider differences in tactical voting between constituencies where Labour dominates vs. districts where the Conservatives are strongest. Finally, we discuss the broader implications of these findings for the study of voting behavior. In recent years, the question of tactical voting has received considerable attention. At a theoretical level, rational choice models, with their emphasis on individual strategic behavior, have been prominent in addressing these issues.' At an empirical level, recent British electoral history has given testimony to the practical importance of tactical voting (Rasmussen, 1984; Catt, 1989). Indeed, this issue has been so salient in Britain that a pressure group has been formed with the aim of encouraging the spread of this practice. One major spur to the increased attention paid to tactical voting in the UK has been the rise of third-party politics during the 1980s. It is the very presence of a meaningful third party that makes tactical voting not just possible but also sensible. Quite self-consciously, Britain's third party, under its various names, has sought to encourage tactical voting by stressing,

Political Research Quarterly, Nov 4, 2022

During his tenure in office, President Trump made repeated attacks on democratic norms and practi... more During his tenure in office, President Trump made repeated attacks on democratic norms and practices in his public statements, in particular via Twitter. Does this type of anti-democratic rhetoric lead to an erosion of citizens’ democratic attitudes? We argue that reactions to Trump’s rhetoric are not likely to be uniform given the highly polarized political climate in the United States. In order to test this theoretical proposition, we fielded a survey experiment on a module of the 2019 Cooperative Congressional Election Study. Treated respondents were exposed to a range of tweets sent by President Trump attacking three critical institutions of a liberal democracy (the media, Congress, and the Courts). We find limited evidence that Trump’s rhetoric leads to an erosion of democratic attitudes. On the contrary, the results suggest there is significant pushback against anti-democratic messages, especially among Democrats.

American Politics Research, Sep 6, 2022

n 925 925 925 NOTE: Cell entries are differences in the predicted value of Support for Compromise... more n 925 925 925 NOTE: Cell entries are differences in the predicted value of Support for Compromise that correspond to minimum-to-maximum differences in the explanatory variables, with standard errors in parentheses. Statistically significant relationships (p<.05, two-tailed) are in bold.

Can voters in multi-party systems predict which coalition will form the government with any degre... more Can voters in multi-party systems predict which coalition will form the government with any degree of accuracy? To date, studies which explore voter expectations of coalition formation have emphasized individual-level attributes, such as education, but the complexity of the environment at the time the coalitions are forming should also be consequential in enabling (or handicapping) voters in forming expectations. We examine the relative effects of individual level attributes(e.g.education, cognitive mobilization) versus contextual factors (e.g.information availability) in 19 German state elections and 3 German general elections between 2009 and 2017. We find that the ease of identifiability of alternative future governments varies significantly across multi-party systems.We find that respondents are more likely to predict governments that they would like to see in office, that have a higher probability of receiving a majority of seats, and that consist of ideologically proximate parties. Combining survey data with a novel indicator of coalition signals, measured through a quantitative text analysis of newspaper coverage, we also find that voters consider positive pre-election coalition signals when predicting the government. Finally, we find that the information environment is much more relevant for correct coalition predictions than individual-level characteristics of respondents. While individual attributes do influence predictive ability, these factors are strongly dominated by the context in which the prediction is taking place.The information environment has by far the largest effect on predicting coalition outcomes.Our results have implications for the literature on strategic voting in multiparty settings,as well as the literature on accountability

Political Geography Quarterly, Apr 1, 1991

Abstract While all of us exist within social networks of friends and neighbours which shapes our ... more Abstract While all of us exist within social networks of friends and neighbours which shapes our views of the political world, empirical substantiation of this process has been hard to find. In this introduction we discuss objections to the contextual approach and the way in which the papers in this volume address those criticisms.

Political Behavior, May 19, 2018

Political participation is often conceived of as a largely individual act. In this paper we empha... more Political participation is often conceived of as a largely individual act. In this paper we emphasize the context in which that choice is made: features of that context make some choices more likely than others both in terms of the decision to participate but also in terms of the kinds of participation in which to engage. In particular, we examine the role that social capital plays in shaping political participation in Latin America. We show that higher levels of social capital promote more conventional forms of political participation such as voting and contacting elected representatives. Given marked differences in levels of social capital across rural and urban areas we are therefore able to show that there exists a geography of political participation across Latin America.

SAGE Publications Ltd eBooks, May 15, 2012

This chapter addresses the role of cue taking by citizens. Cue taking is a way to answer the ques... more This chapter addresses the role of cue taking by citizens. Cue taking is a way to answer the question: can democracy work when most of the public is rationally ignorant? The cue-taking literature gives a resounding “yes” as an answer to this question. This chapter elaborates upon the reasons for this answer and the conditions under which it holds. There are, however, reasons to be cautious in being too optimistic about this answer. While cue-taking behavior is both present and helpful, it is not infallible. The chapter also notes the times when cue-taking behavior does not really allow one to say that it is a panacea so far as democratic decision making is concerned.

Palgrave Macmillan US eBooks, 2008

Most Americans live in a “hybrid democracy.” That is, they live where processes of both direct de... more Most Americans live in a “hybrid democracy.” That is, they live where processes of both direct democracy and representative democracy coexist as part of state government (Garrett 2005, 2006). Yet, as Garrett notes, while studies of direct democracy and of state government are common, few authors examine the interaction between the two and their effects on each other. This volume systematically looks at the interrelationship between direct and representative democracy and the impact of one on the other. We show that while there do exist arguments concerning the effects, few studies assess these arguments. Some aspects of direct democracy, such as voting behavior, are reasonably well understood, whereas other aspects, such as how parties are shaped by direct democracy or what direct democracy means for governability, are poorly understood. The chapters in this volume further our understanding of these important yet understudied areas.

Political Behavior, Dec 1, 1996

It has long been established that changes in the electorate can have an impact on party systems, ... more It has long been established that changes in the electorate can have an impact on party systems, sometimes leading to the creation of new parties and the elimination of old ones. We contend, however, that changes in the party system may cause voters to reassess their party identification absent of any long-term change in the overall makeup or attitudes of the electorate. As a case in point, we demonstrate that changes in the Canadian party system in the late 1980s (specifically the advent of the rlght-wing Reform Party) led to a decline in party loyalty among supporters of the right-center Progressive Conservative Party. We discuss the implications of these findings for the study of party systems and partisan change.