David Lopez-Carr | University of California, Santa Barbara (original) (raw)

Papers by David Lopez-Carr

Population Research and Policy Review, 2009

Since the 1970s, in-migration has driven a growing human presence and dramatic changes in the phy... more Since the 1970s, in-migration has driven a growing human presence and dramatic changes in the physical landscape of the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon frontier, including massive deforestation. Over time, a second phenomenon has emerged with the children of the original migrants often leaving the settler farms of their parents to set out on their own. The vast majority stay in the Amazon region, some contributing to further changes in land use through rural-rural migration and the others to early urbanization. This paper uses longitudinal and multi-scale data on settler colonists in this region between 1990 and 1999 to analyze rural-rural and rural-urban migration among second-generation colonists. After describing the migrants and settlers in terms of their characteristics and those of their households and communities, a multinomial discrete-time hazard model is used to estimate the determinants of out-migration of the second generation settlers to both urban and rural areas. We find significant differences in migrants to the two types of destinations in personal characteristics, human capital endowments, stage of farm household life cycle, migration networks, and access to community resources and infrastructure. The paper also identifies the effects of policy-relevant factors on migrants' choice of rural versus urban destinations.

In data poor areas, the use of statistical models is often determined by the quantity and quality... more In data poor areas, the use of statistical models is often determined by the quantity and quality of the data. However, statistical modeling may also be limited by inherent biases in a researcher's native discipline. Geographers, for example, would prefer the use of spatial models, population scientists often use hierarchical models, and economists economic. Here, we explore the pros and cons of three model outcomes, which allow us to evaluate the range of predictions and how they would significantly influence our research conclusions.

"This article explores the impacts of different financial strategies on Water User Associati... more "This article explores the impacts of different financial strategies on Water User Associations' ability to adapt to water source degradation. The article addresses the debate regarding whether and in what form communities need external support for adaptation to environmental change. In the Andean region of South America, understanding how communities fund their projects is particularly important for water management as many rural communities must decide by themselves if and how they will protect their watersheds and distribute their water. In many cases, communities depend on government financial support to implement their adaptation strategies, requiring them to participate in clientelist political systems that can crowd-out their efforts to adapt. In the Fúquene watershed in the Andes of Colombia, there is evidence that communities have invested time and financial resources to implement adaptation strategies. Local governments in the region have also invested in these st...

Introducción México es uno de los países con mayor diversidad biológica del mundo. Sin embargo es... more Introducción México es uno de los países con mayor diversidad biológica del mundo. Sin embargo esta biodiversidad se encuentra amenazada por las altas tasas de deforestación que prevalecen en el país (FAO, 2001). Varios estudios se abocaron a evaluar los cambios de uso/cobertura del suelo (CUCS) en México (Mas et al., 2004). Fuller et al. (2007) examinaron los efectos de los CUCS sobre la distribución de 86 especies endémicas de mamíferos en 1970, 1976, 1993 y 2000. Encontraron que esta fauna hubiera sido protegida de forma mucho más económica, si los planes de conservación hubieran sido implementados en 1970, la conservación actual necesita 90% más de superficie que en 1970, para proteger las mismas especies debido a la conversión de extensas superficies de hábitats naturales a usos antrópicos. Durante las últimas décadas, una gran variedad de modelos fueron desarrollados para predecir la localización de los CUCS (Agarwal et al., 2002). El modelado, particularmente si se desarrolla...

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2015

Sustainability, 2014

Ecological migration policy has been proposed and implemented as a means for depopulating ecologi... more Ecological migration policy has been proposed and implemented as a means for depopulating ecological restoration areas in the arid Northwest China. Migration intention is critical to the effectiveness of ecological migration policy. However, studies on migration intention in relation to ecological migration policy in China remain scant. Thus this paper aims to investigate the rural residents' migration intentions and their affecting factors under ecological migration policy in Minqin County, an ecological restoration area, located at the lower terminus of Shiyang River Basin in arid Northwest China. The data for this study come from a randomly sampled household questionnaire survey. Results from logistic regression modelling indicate that most residents do not intend to migrate, despite rigid eco-environmental conditions and governance polices threatening livelihood sustainability. In addition to demographic and socio-economic factors, the eco-environmental factors are also significantly correlated with the possibility of a resident intending to migrate. The implications of the significant independent variables for the sustainability of ecological migration policy are discussed. The paper concludes that ecological migration policies may ultimately be more sustainable when taking into account household interests within complex migration intention contexts, such as household livelihoods dynamics and environmental change. OPEN ACCESS Sustainability 2014, 6 8640

Applied Geography, 2015

ABSTRACT Marine protected areas (MPAs) hold great promise as an effective conservation tool, but ... more ABSTRACT Marine protected areas (MPAs) hold great promise as an effective conservation tool, but the potential negative socioeconomic impacts of MPAs remain poorly understood. Indeed, little work has been done to advance the frameworks and methods needed to assess, measure, and communicate the potential negative socioeconomic impact of MPAs and incorporate this information in MPA planning and management efforts. To address this gap, we test a vulnerability assessment termed the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) that is designed to measure the relative potential impact a proposed MPA network may have upon fisherman livelihoods. To test the LVI, specifically we ask, how does the vulnerability of fishermen to the impact of MPAs differ across place? We explore this question through two core areas of inquiry surrounding the study of vulnerability assessments: 1) Ranking and comparing vulnerability and 2) Explaining attributes of vulnerability. Through this study we demonstrate how the historical and current conditions fishermen experience in a given place shape vulnerability levels in various ways. Variability in the attributes of a particular place such as weather conditions, the size of fishing areas, availability of alternative fisheries, and changes in kelp cover contribute inherently as measures of vulnerability but they also shape fishermen perceptions of what are important measures of vulnerability. Secondly, counter to existing notions, the use of weights in vulnerability assessments may not significantly impact vulnerability scores and ranking. Together these findings emphasize the need to test vulnerability assessments against actual experienced impact or harm across geographies and groups of fishermen towards an informed refinement of vulnerability assessments. We emphasize that the particularities of place are critical to understand, to appropriately assess and thus to effectively mitigate vulnerability in order to promote the future well being of fisherman livelihoods.

Payment for ecosystem services programs are being implemented in a wide variety of settings, but ... more Payment for ecosystem services programs are being implemented in a wide variety of settings, but whether and in what contexts such programs present ‘win–win’ scenarios that simultaneously improve human well- being and achieve conservation goals remains poorly understood. Based on semi-structured interviews with early program participants enrolling either collectively- or individually-held land, we evaluated whether and how SocioPáramo, a national-scale PES program targeting Ecuadorian Andean grasslands (páramos), has the potential to contribute to local livelihoods (financial, natural, social, human, and physical capital) and sustain- able resource management. Low conservation opportunity costs associated with pre-existing constraints on land use and the existence of alternative livelihood options appeared to facilitate largely positive financial capital outcomes, although we found reduced financial capital among some smaller and medium-sized landholders who were required to eliminate burning and grazing. We found the greatest potential for improved social, financial, and natural capital among well-organized community participants enrolling collective land, while greater attention to building capacity of individual smaller landholders could improve outcomes for those participants. These results help fill a gap in knowledge by drawing on empirical data to demonstrate how divergent outcomes have begun to emerge among different groups of SocioPáramo participants, providing lessons for PES program design.

Applied Geography, 2015

ABSTRACT In April 2003, California established a network of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs)... more ABSTRACT In April 2003, California established a network of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) around the northern Channel Islands located within the Santa Barbara Bight. Prior to the MPAs enclosing 17% of the islands' lobster fishing grounds, 25 commercial lobster fishermen caught 50% of the regional annual landings from the Channel Islands. To best manage MPAs and affected fisheries we ask a critical question: Where did the fishermen go? Spillover theory emerging from models of MPAs and adjacent fisheries suggests displaced fishermen will concentrate their effort along MPA borders; a phenomenon called “fishing the line”. These models do not consider habitat-specific fishing effort, habitat heterogeneity, nor fixed-gear fisheries such as lobster where traps are set, soaked for 1 to 3 nights, pulled and re-set. With fixed-gear fishing, space is “marked” or occupied, and reduces the possibility of another fisherman to fish that space. Lobster trap fisheries are notoriously territorial as a result. Lobster fisheries therefore stand to experience a skewed impact based on a priori territorial distributions and habitat quality. We use a Geographic Information System (GIS) to map 10 years (5 before reserves and 5 after) of fishery-dependent logbook data assisted with fishery interviews to test if commercial lobster fishermen aggregated fishing effort at MPA borders as an adaptive fishing strategy. We found that fishermen around the Channel Islands MPAs did not concentrate effort at MPA boundaries but instead the proportion of total traps pulled in close proximity (within 1 km of reserve borders) to MPAs declined from 10% to 5%. Chi2 analysis found a significant decrease in the proportion of a season's traps pulled in areas near MPA borders (n = 157,071; p < .001). T test analysis testing the difference in CPUE between areas far from MPAs and areas adjacent to MPA borders showed a significant reduction in the difference between CPUE following MPA designation (n = 50,206; p < .001).

Human Ecology, 2013

In the Andean region of South America, understanding communities' water perceptions is particular... more In the Andean region of South America, understanding communities' water perceptions is particularly important for water management as many rural communities must decide by themselves if and how they will protect their micro-watersheds and distribute their water. In this study we examine how Water User Associations in the Eastern Andes of Colombia perceive water scarcity and the relationship between this perception and observed climate, land use, and demographic changes. Results demonstrate a complex relationship between perceptions and observed changes. On the one hand, observed changes in land cover match perceptions of deforestation as the primary cause of increasing water scarcity. On the other hand, perceptions of climate driven changes in water availability are not reflected in observed precipitation data. Furthermore, water scarcity was perceived in regions where seasonal rainfall variability is higher but not in regions where annual rainfall is lower. We discuss how these results contribute to our understanding of adaptation to climate change and the implications of possible mismatches between environmental changes and local perceptions.

This paper develops and maps the first spatially explicit, integrative measure of vulnerability t... more This paper develops and maps the first spatially explicit, integrative measure of vulnerability to climate change as a function of vegetation and demographic dynamics for Africa at a spatial resolution of 5 square kilometers. Increasing climate variability as well as declining and more irregular precipitation significantly impacts agricultural production, food security, and disease in many African countries; recent estimates predict that without rapid global emission mitigation by 2030, this will lead to an increase in the incidence of malaria by 17%, malnutrition by 16%, and diarrhea by 5%. However, we know little about where these impacts may be most devastating to children's health outcomes. Our analysis integrates time-series remotely-sensed imagery capturing changes in vegetation condition with continent-wide analyses of temperature and precipitation trends and population distribution in a rule-based classifier to create a present and future vulnerability index. Results suggest a near doubling of the population in some areas (such as the East African Horn) is linked with hotspots of degradation in vegetation condition, but that the most significant land cover change and vegetation degradation trends are observed in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures.

Lake Victoria is the largest lake in Africa, and the lake and its watershed are a critical resour... more Lake Victoria is the largest lake in Africa, and the lake and its watershed are a critical resource for the livelihoods of millions of people across five countries: Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, and Rwanda. The FAO, however, reports that the population living around in the Lake Victoria Basin is among the poorest and most food insecure in all of East Africa due to declining land productivity, soil degradation, desertification, loss of biodiversity, livestock and crop diseases, declining fisheries, and poor development and trade policies. Policymakers concerned with the sustainable management of the Lake Victoria Basin, perceive population growth to be a key driving force of rapidly changing and degrading ecosystems, along with inadequate government policies and planning, regulations, provision of services. Data on basic population, health, and environment indicators, however, are unavailable at the landscape level of the basin making it difficult to assess, monitor, and communicate effectively about these connections. The varying data sources across the five countries and the lack of alignment of administrative units with the Lake Victoria Basin watershed are the principle data challenges. In this paper we highlight the efforts of a multidisciplinary research team to overcome these data challenges and develop demographic and health indicators for policy makers in the Lake Victoria Basin Commission as well as for program staff in an integrated Population, Health, Environment Program working with District leaders and communities on these issues in Uganda and Kenya.

Population Research and Policy Review, 2009

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2015

Sustainability, 2014

Applied Geography, 2015

Human Ecology, 2013