Tiago de Sena Carneiro | Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto (original) (raw)

Papers by Tiago de Sena Carneiro

Environmental Modelling & Software, 2013

Modeling interactions between social and natural systems is a hard task. It involves collecting d... more Modeling interactions between social and natural systems is a hard task. It involves collecting data, building up a conceptual approach, implementing, calibrating, simulating, validating, and possibly repeating these steps again and again. There are different conceptual approaches proposed in the literature to tackle this problem. However, for complex problems it is better to combine different approaches, giving rise to a need for flexible and extensible frameworks for modeling natureesociety interactions. In this paper we present TerraME, an open source toolbox that supports multi-paradigm and multi-scale modeling of coupled human-environmental systems. It enables models that combine agentbased, cellular automata, system dynamics, and discrete event simulation paradigms. TerraME has a GIS interface for managing real-world geospatial data and uses Lua, an expressive scripting language.

Modelling in Science Education and Learning, 2015

In a social-environmental modeling course, students need to learn complementary skills that inclu... more In a social-environmental modeling course, students need to learn complementary skills that include the conceptualisation of a model, different modeling paradigms, computer programming, and the process of rigorously converting ideas and data into a computational program using a given toolkit. Such topics need to be taught in parallel in order to keep a heterogeneous audience motivated. Based on the experience with multidisciplinary audiences, this paper describes a socio-environmental modeling course that explores three modeling paradigms: System dynamics, Cellular automata, and Agent-based modeling. We also present a small tutorial with some examples developed for the course. Em um curso de modelagem socioambiental, os alunos precisam aprender diferentes habilidades complementares que incluem a conceitualização de um modelo, diferentes paradigmas de modelagem, programação de computadores, bem como o processo de converter ideias e dados em um programa computacional usando uma determinada ferramenta de modelagem. Esses temas precisam ser ensinados em paralelo para manter uma audiência heterogênea motivada. Com base na experiência obtida com audiências multidisciplinares, este artigo descreve um curso de modelagem socioambiental que explora três paradigmas: dinâmica de sistemas, autômatos celulares e modelagem baseada em agentes. Apresentamos também um pequeno tutorial com alguns dos exemplos usados no curso.

Journal of Information …, 2011

Population dynamic models requires the evaluation of the best scale of analysis. This work analys... more Population dynamic models requires the evaluation of the best scale of analysis. This work analyses three spatial scales in the context of the mosquito Aedes aegypti, main vector of dengue fever. One scale is the neighborhood, the others scales are the census tract and the lot. A geographical database was developed including point maps with trap locations, number of eggs collected per trap per week, polygons of census tracts, census data, among others. For simulation purposes, a layer of regular cells (10 x 10 meters) was created to store the model's inputs and outputs. A population dynamic model with temperature as input variable was parameterized and fitted to the neighborhood and census tract data. For the lot level, an allocation procedure was developed as the spatial resolution was higher than the data resolution. This procedure couples the population dynamic model with a kernel density map. Results indicate that at the neighborhood level, the population model captured well the overall pattern with lower mosquito density during the cold season and larger during the warm season. However, in the first warm season, two peaks did not fit well, suggesting the importance of investigating the role of other variables in the dynamics of Aedes aegypti. At the census tract level, we found no evidence of spatial clustering. At the lot level, the allocation model represented well the overall summer to winter variation in hotspot intensity. The cost of vector surveillance is high and the procedures proposed here can be used to design optimized control strategies and activities.

Modelling in Science Education and Learning, 2015

In a social-environmental modeling course, students need to learn complementary skills that inclu... more In a social-environmental modeling course, students need to learn complementary skills that include the conceptualisation of a model, different modeling paradigms, computer programming, and the process of rigorously converting ideas and data into a computational program using a given toolkit. Such topics need to be taught in parallel in order to keep a heterogeneous audience motivated. Based on the experience with multidisciplinary audiences, this paper describes a socio-environmental modeling course that explores three modeling paradigms: System dynamics, Cellular automata, and Agent-based modeling. We also present a small tutorial with some examples developed for the course. Em um curso de modelagem socioambiental, os alunos precisam aprender diferentes habilidades complementares que incluem a conceitualização de um modelo, diferentes paradigmas de modelagem, programação de computadores, bem como o processo de converter ideias e dados em um programa computacional usando uma determinada ferramenta de modelagem. Esses temas precisam ser ensinados em paralelo para manter uma audiência heterogênea motivada. Com base na experiência obtida com audiências multidisciplinares, este artigo descreve um curso de modelagem socioambiental que explora três paradigmas: dinâmica de sistemas, autômatos celulares e modelagem baseada em agentes. Apresentamos também um pequeno tutorial com alguns dos exemplos usados no curso.

Modelling in Science Education and Learning, 2015

In a social-environmental modeling course, students need to learn complementary skills that inclu... more In a social-environmental modeling course, students need to learn complementary skills that include the conceptualisation of a model, different modeling paradigms, computer programming, and the process of rigorously converting ideas and data into a computational program using a given toolkit. Such topics need to be taught in parallel in order to keep a heterogeneous audience motivated. Based on the experience with multidisciplinary audiences, this paper describes a socio-environmental modeling course that explores three modeling paradigms: System dynamics, Cellular automata, and Agent-based modeling. We also present a small tutorial with some examples developed for the course. Em um curso de modelagem socioambiental, os alunos precisam aprender diferentes habilidades complementares que incluem a conceitualização de um modelo, diferentes paradigmas de modelagem, programação de computadores, bem como o processo de converter ideias e dados em um programa computacional usando uma determinada ferramenta de modelagem. Esses temas precisam ser ensinados em paralelo para manter uma audiência heterogênea motivada. Com base na experiência obtida com audiências multidisciplinares, este artigo descreve um curso de modelagem socioambiental que explora três paradigmas: dinâmica de sistemas, autômatos celulares e modelagem baseada em agentes. Apresentamos também um pequeno tutorial com alguns dos exemplos usados no curso.

No single model or scale can fully capture the causes of land change. For a given region, land ch... more No single model or scale can fully capture the causes of land change. For a given region, land changes may have different impacts at different places. Limits and opportunities imposed by biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, such as local policies and accessibility, may induce distinct land change trajectories. These local land change trajecto-ries may, in turn, indirectly affect other places, as local actions interact with higher-level driving forces. Such intraregional interdependencies cannot be captured by studies at a single scale, calling for multiscale and multilocality studies. This paper proposes a software organization for building computational models that support dynamical linking of multiple scales. This structure couples different types of models, such as cell-space models with agent-based models. We show how results in multiscale models can flow both in bottom-up and top-down directions, thus allowing feedback from local actors to regional scales. The proposal is general and independent of specific software, and it is effective to model intra-regional, bottom-up and top-down interactions in land change models. To show the model's potential, we develop a case study that shows how a multiscale model for the Brazilian Amazonia can include feed-backs between local to regional scales.

Modeling interactions between social and natural systems is a hard task. It involves collecting d... more Modeling interactions between social and natural systems is a hard task. It involves collecting data, building up a conceptual approach, implementing, calibrating, simulating, validating, and possibly repeating these steps again and again. There are different conceptual approaches proposed in the literature to tackle this problem. However, for complex problems it is better to combine different approaches , giving rise to a need for flexible and extensible frameworks for modeling natureesociety interactions. In this paper we present TerraME, an open source toolbox that supports multi-paradigm and multi-scale modeling of coupled human-environmental systems. It enables models that combine agent-based, cellular automata, system dynamics, and discrete event simulation paradigms. TerraME has a GIS interface for managing real-world geospatial data and uses Lua, an expressive scripting language.

Science, 2005

(1) challenge our assertion that the unprecedented, planned expansion of highways and other trans... more (1) challenge our assertion that the unprecedented, planned expansion of highways and other transportation projects in Amazonia that was originally proposed under the 'Avança Brasil' (Advance Brazil) program is likely to lead to a dramatic increase in forest loss and degradation. In doing so they argue that our earlier spatial models (2) were overly simplistic and 'apocalyptic' in their projections. However, three points about our models merit emphasis:

Brazilian Symposium on GeoInformatics, 2010

The GEOINFO series of scientic symposia is an annual forum for exploring ongoing research, develo... more The GEOINFO series of scientic symposia is an annual forum for exploring ongoing research, development of innovative applications on geographic information science and related areas. After a sabbatical break in 2009, GEOINFO returns to the friendly atmosphere of Campos do Jordão, SP, Brazil, site of many memorable editions.

This paper presents a low coupled acquisition mechanism focused on users interactions, associated... more This paper presents a low coupled acquisition mechanism focused on users interactions, associated with semantic data. This tool, named ArchCollect, is used for collecting, transforming, loading and displaying user interactions. Its architecture is composed by seven components that gather information coming directly from the user, regardless the user monitored applications. The ArchCollect architecture has a relational model with capacity for keeping important information for two main areas: the commerce with products or services, quantities and prices, and applications with process, quantities, prices and employees. The relational model also added the possibility of obtaining the time spent to serve each user interaction on the application servers and on the ArchCollect servers. In this architecture, data extraction and analysis are performed either by internal algorithms, or by decision support tools, such as OLAP, Data Mining and Statistic.

This paper presents a new computational model for representing the Geographic Space concept, call... more This paper presents a new computational model for representing the Geographic Space concept, called Irregular Cellular Space, which main goal is supporting the development of multiscale spatially explicit dynamic models integrated to geographical databases. This model has been implemented in a modeling software platform named TerraME which has been used for the development of some interesting environmental dynamic models and form simulation of dynamic spatial patterns of change.

XII Simposio Brasileiro …, 2005

This paper aims to present a methodology to link analysis process to the development of land cove... more This paper aims to present a methodology to link analysis process to the development of land cover change model. We developed a method to partitioning the study area, located at Central-North region of Rondônia, in land units, characterized by history of occupation using a TM/Landsat image series, from 1985 to 2000 and a geographic database to store spatial and non-spatial information. Land Unities, called UOP, express different land cover patterns linked to different deforestation process in time and space. The UOP mapping allowed us to analyze the study area throughout deforestation indicators and to capture the diversity of occupation processes and some factors that affects deforestation distribution. This work allowed us to define some computational modeling requirement to support Rondônia space-time complexity as, multiple resolutions, multiple times events, multiple actors and behaviors.

This paper describes an example of a system focused on web users' interactions, called ArchCollec... more This paper describes an example of a system focused on web users' interactions, called ArchCollect. One JavaScript component and five Java components gather information coming only from the user, independing on the web application that will be monitored and on the web server used to support it. Collecting information directly from the client improves the portability of this software and its capacity to deal with many web applications in a Data Center at the same time, for instance. The ArchCollect relational model, which is composed by several tables, provides analyses, regarding factors such as purchases, business results, the length of time spent to serve each interaction, user, process, service or product. In this software, data extraction and data analysis are performed either by personalization mechanisms provided by internal algorithms, or by any commercial decision-making tools focused on services, such as, OLAP, Data Mining and Statistics, or by both.

Environmental Modelling & Software, 2013

Modeling interactions between social and natural systems is a hard task. It involves collecting d... more Modeling interactions between social and natural systems is a hard task. It involves collecting data, building up a conceptual approach, implementing, calibrating, simulating, validating, and possibly repeating these steps again and again. There are different conceptual approaches proposed in the literature to tackle this problem. However, for complex problems it is better to combine different approaches, giving rise to a need for flexible and extensible frameworks for modeling natureesociety interactions. In this paper we present TerraME, an open source toolbox that supports multi-paradigm and multi-scale modeling of coupled human-environmental systems. It enables models that combine agentbased, cellular automata, system dynamics, and discrete event simulation paradigms. TerraME has a GIS interface for managing real-world geospatial data and uses Lua, an expressive scripting language.

Modelling in Science Education and Learning, 2015

In a social-environmental modeling course, students need to learn complementary skills that inclu... more In a social-environmental modeling course, students need to learn complementary skills that include the conceptualisation of a model, different modeling paradigms, computer programming, and the process of rigorously converting ideas and data into a computational program using a given toolkit. Such topics need to be taught in parallel in order to keep a heterogeneous audience motivated. Based on the experience with multidisciplinary audiences, this paper describes a socio-environmental modeling course that explores three modeling paradigms: System dynamics, Cellular automata, and Agent-based modeling. We also present a small tutorial with some examples developed for the course. Em um curso de modelagem socioambiental, os alunos precisam aprender diferentes habilidades complementares que incluem a conceitualização de um modelo, diferentes paradigmas de modelagem, programação de computadores, bem como o processo de converter ideias e dados em um programa computacional usando uma determinada ferramenta de modelagem. Esses temas precisam ser ensinados em paralelo para manter uma audiência heterogênea motivada. Com base na experiência obtida com audiências multidisciplinares, este artigo descreve um curso de modelagem socioambiental que explora três paradigmas: dinâmica de sistemas, autômatos celulares e modelagem baseada em agentes. Apresentamos também um pequeno tutorial com alguns dos exemplos usados no curso.

Journal of Information …, 2011

Population dynamic models requires the evaluation of the best scale of analysis. This work analys... more Population dynamic models requires the evaluation of the best scale of analysis. This work analyses three spatial scales in the context of the mosquito Aedes aegypti, main vector of dengue fever. One scale is the neighborhood, the others scales are the census tract and the lot. A geographical database was developed including point maps with trap locations, number of eggs collected per trap per week, polygons of census tracts, census data, among others. For simulation purposes, a layer of regular cells (10 x 10 meters) was created to store the model's inputs and outputs. A population dynamic model with temperature as input variable was parameterized and fitted to the neighborhood and census tract data. For the lot level, an allocation procedure was developed as the spatial resolution was higher than the data resolution. This procedure couples the population dynamic model with a kernel density map. Results indicate that at the neighborhood level, the population model captured well the overall pattern with lower mosquito density during the cold season and larger during the warm season. However, in the first warm season, two peaks did not fit well, suggesting the importance of investigating the role of other variables in the dynamics of Aedes aegypti. At the census tract level, we found no evidence of spatial clustering. At the lot level, the allocation model represented well the overall summer to winter variation in hotspot intensity. The cost of vector surveillance is high and the procedures proposed here can be used to design optimized control strategies and activities.

Modelling in Science Education and Learning, 2015

In a social-environmental modeling course, students need to learn complementary skills that inclu... more In a social-environmental modeling course, students need to learn complementary skills that include the conceptualisation of a model, different modeling paradigms, computer programming, and the process of rigorously converting ideas and data into a computational program using a given toolkit. Such topics need to be taught in parallel in order to keep a heterogeneous audience motivated. Based on the experience with multidisciplinary audiences, this paper describes a socio-environmental modeling course that explores three modeling paradigms: System dynamics, Cellular automata, and Agent-based modeling. We also present a small tutorial with some examples developed for the course. Em um curso de modelagem socioambiental, os alunos precisam aprender diferentes habilidades complementares que incluem a conceitualização de um modelo, diferentes paradigmas de modelagem, programação de computadores, bem como o processo de converter ideias e dados em um programa computacional usando uma determinada ferramenta de modelagem. Esses temas precisam ser ensinados em paralelo para manter uma audiência heterogênea motivada. Com base na experiência obtida com audiências multidisciplinares, este artigo descreve um curso de modelagem socioambiental que explora três paradigmas: dinâmica de sistemas, autômatos celulares e modelagem baseada em agentes. Apresentamos também um pequeno tutorial com alguns dos exemplos usados no curso.

Modelling in Science Education and Learning, 2015

In a social-environmental modeling course, students need to learn complementary skills that inclu... more In a social-environmental modeling course, students need to learn complementary skills that include the conceptualisation of a model, different modeling paradigms, computer programming, and the process of rigorously converting ideas and data into a computational program using a given toolkit. Such topics need to be taught in parallel in order to keep a heterogeneous audience motivated. Based on the experience with multidisciplinary audiences, this paper describes a socio-environmental modeling course that explores three modeling paradigms: System dynamics, Cellular automata, and Agent-based modeling. We also present a small tutorial with some examples developed for the course. Em um curso de modelagem socioambiental, os alunos precisam aprender diferentes habilidades complementares que incluem a conceitualização de um modelo, diferentes paradigmas de modelagem, programação de computadores, bem como o processo de converter ideias e dados em um programa computacional usando uma determinada ferramenta de modelagem. Esses temas precisam ser ensinados em paralelo para manter uma audiência heterogênea motivada. Com base na experiência obtida com audiências multidisciplinares, este artigo descreve um curso de modelagem socioambiental que explora três paradigmas: dinâmica de sistemas, autômatos celulares e modelagem baseada em agentes. Apresentamos também um pequeno tutorial com alguns dos exemplos usados no curso.

No single model or scale can fully capture the causes of land change. For a given region, land ch... more No single model or scale can fully capture the causes of land change. For a given region, land changes may have different impacts at different places. Limits and opportunities imposed by biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, such as local policies and accessibility, may induce distinct land change trajectories. These local land change trajecto-ries may, in turn, indirectly affect other places, as local actions interact with higher-level driving forces. Such intraregional interdependencies cannot be captured by studies at a single scale, calling for multiscale and multilocality studies. This paper proposes a software organization for building computational models that support dynamical linking of multiple scales. This structure couples different types of models, such as cell-space models with agent-based models. We show how results in multiscale models can flow both in bottom-up and top-down directions, thus allowing feedback from local actors to regional scales. The proposal is general and independent of specific software, and it is effective to model intra-regional, bottom-up and top-down interactions in land change models. To show the model's potential, we develop a case study that shows how a multiscale model for the Brazilian Amazonia can include feed-backs between local to regional scales.

Modeling interactions between social and natural systems is a hard task. It involves collecting d... more Modeling interactions between social and natural systems is a hard task. It involves collecting data, building up a conceptual approach, implementing, calibrating, simulating, validating, and possibly repeating these steps again and again. There are different conceptual approaches proposed in the literature to tackle this problem. However, for complex problems it is better to combine different approaches , giving rise to a need for flexible and extensible frameworks for modeling natureesociety interactions. In this paper we present TerraME, an open source toolbox that supports multi-paradigm and multi-scale modeling of coupled human-environmental systems. It enables models that combine agent-based, cellular automata, system dynamics, and discrete event simulation paradigms. TerraME has a GIS interface for managing real-world geospatial data and uses Lua, an expressive scripting language.

Science, 2005

(1) challenge our assertion that the unprecedented, planned expansion of highways and other trans... more (1) challenge our assertion that the unprecedented, planned expansion of highways and other transportation projects in Amazonia that was originally proposed under the 'Avança Brasil' (Advance Brazil) program is likely to lead to a dramatic increase in forest loss and degradation. In doing so they argue that our earlier spatial models (2) were overly simplistic and 'apocalyptic' in their projections. However, three points about our models merit emphasis:

Brazilian Symposium on GeoInformatics, 2010

The GEOINFO series of scientic symposia is an annual forum for exploring ongoing research, develo... more The GEOINFO series of scientic symposia is an annual forum for exploring ongoing research, development of innovative applications on geographic information science and related areas. After a sabbatical break in 2009, GEOINFO returns to the friendly atmosphere of Campos do Jordão, SP, Brazil, site of many memorable editions.

This paper presents a low coupled acquisition mechanism focused on users interactions, associated... more This paper presents a low coupled acquisition mechanism focused on users interactions, associated with semantic data. This tool, named ArchCollect, is used for collecting, transforming, loading and displaying user interactions. Its architecture is composed by seven components that gather information coming directly from the user, regardless the user monitored applications. The ArchCollect architecture has a relational model with capacity for keeping important information for two main areas: the commerce with products or services, quantities and prices, and applications with process, quantities, prices and employees. The relational model also added the possibility of obtaining the time spent to serve each user interaction on the application servers and on the ArchCollect servers. In this architecture, data extraction and analysis are performed either by internal algorithms, or by decision support tools, such as OLAP, Data Mining and Statistic.

This paper presents a new computational model for representing the Geographic Space concept, call... more This paper presents a new computational model for representing the Geographic Space concept, called Irregular Cellular Space, which main goal is supporting the development of multiscale spatially explicit dynamic models integrated to geographical databases. This model has been implemented in a modeling software platform named TerraME which has been used for the development of some interesting environmental dynamic models and form simulation of dynamic spatial patterns of change.

XII Simposio Brasileiro …, 2005

This paper aims to present a methodology to link analysis process to the development of land cove... more This paper aims to present a methodology to link analysis process to the development of land cover change model. We developed a method to partitioning the study area, located at Central-North region of Rondônia, in land units, characterized by history of occupation using a TM/Landsat image series, from 1985 to 2000 and a geographic database to store spatial and non-spatial information. Land Unities, called UOP, express different land cover patterns linked to different deforestation process in time and space. The UOP mapping allowed us to analyze the study area throughout deforestation indicators and to capture the diversity of occupation processes and some factors that affects deforestation distribution. This work allowed us to define some computational modeling requirement to support Rondônia space-time complexity as, multiple resolutions, multiple times events, multiple actors and behaviors.

This paper describes an example of a system focused on web users' interactions, called ArchCollec... more This paper describes an example of a system focused on web users' interactions, called ArchCollect. One JavaScript component and five Java components gather information coming only from the user, independing on the web application that will be monitored and on the web server used to support it. Collecting information directly from the client improves the portability of this software and its capacity to deal with many web applications in a Data Center at the same time, for instance. The ArchCollect relational model, which is composed by several tables, provides analyses, regarding factors such as purchases, business results, the length of time spent to serve each interaction, user, process, service or product. In this software, data extraction and data analysis are performed either by personalization mechanisms provided by internal algorithms, or by any commercial decision-making tools focused on services, such as, OLAP, Data Mining and Statistics, or by both.