Rafael Soria | Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) (original) (raw)

Papers by Rafael Soria

This study aims to quantify the environmentally sustainable and economically feasible potentials ... more This study aims to quantify the environmentally sustainable and economically feasible potentials of agricultural and agro-industrial residues to generate electricity via direct combustion in centralised power plants in Brazil. Further, the energy savings and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potential of replacing natural gas-based electricity by bioenergy have been assessed. To this end, a methodology has been developed based on an integrated evaluation, incorporating statistical and geographical information system (GIS)-based analysis, and a life-cycle-assessment approach. Results reveal that the environmentally sustainable generation potential is nearly 141 TWh/year, mainly concentrated in the South, Southeast, and Midwest regions of the country. Sugarcane, soybean and maize crop residues are the major feedstocks for available bioenergy. On the other hand, the economic potential is far lower, accounting to 39 TWh/year. The total GHG mitigation is nearly 18 million tonne CO2e and could reach 64 million tonne CO2e yearly, if the technical potential is considered. The gap between technical and economic potentials implies that constraints to bioenergy are not related to a lack of resources, but rather associated to economic, logistical, regulatory and political barriers.

The production of electricity using concentrated solar power (CSP) technology is not yet possible... more The production of electricity using concentrated solar power (CSP) technology is not yet possible in Brazil due to the technology’s high capital costs and the lack of a local industry. However, this study introduces a low-cost approach to CSP in Brazil by describing and simulating the operation of hybrid CSP plants that use sustainably managed biomass in Brazil’s semiarid northeast. Biomass hybridisation of a CSP plant with a solar multiple (SM) of 1.2 and a biomass fill fraction (BFF) of 30% can generate electricity at 110 USD/MWh. The high direct normal irradiation (DNI) and the availability of local low-cost biomass in Brazil’s semiarid northeast suggest the possibility of developing a CSP industry capable of supplying low-cost components under a national program framework, with the co-benefits of local job and income generation. For example, the deployment of 10 CSP plants of 30 MWe each would generate 760 direct and indirect jobs during the 24 months of plant construction and approximately 2100 annual jobs associated with the operation and maintenance (O&M) of the generating units. These 10 new units would generate additional local income on the order of USD 57 million.

Climate change can have an impact on natural and human systems. This is usually the case with ren... more Climate change can have an impact on natural and human systems. This is usually the case with renewable-energy-based energy systems, given their close dependence on climate conditions. For instance, long-term changes in temperature, precipitation, and wind shear, among other factors, can affect the operation of existing energy systems and even compromise the viability of new entrepreneurships. Therefore, global climate change can add a significant amount of uncertainty to the already uncertain operation of renewable energy systems. This article gives an overview of the issues related to climate change impacts on hydropower production with a focus on Amazonian regions.

This study analyses the Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) potential in Brazil and evaluates the impa... more This study analyses the Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) potential in Brazil and evaluates the impact caused by a large-scale integration of this alternative into the Brazilian electricity system in the long term (horizon 2040). Four types of CSP plants with parabolic troughs (simple plants, plants with hybridization and plants with thermal energy storage) were simulated at two sites: Bom Jesus da Lapa and Campo Grande. Then, the main parameters obtained for each plant were expanded to other suitable Brazilian sites, as inputs in an optimization model for the expansion of the country's electric power grid. Findings indicate that the least-cost expansion of the Brazilian electricity system should be based on hydroelectric and thermoelectric plants fueled by natural gas and sugarcane bagasse. Hence, in the base scenario CSP plants would not be chosen. However, in an alternative scenario, specific auctions for CSP can be adopted. In this case, the first solar plants would be introduced in 2020 in place of natural gas-fueled thermoelectric plants, and from 2030 on, hydroelectric plants would cease to be installed. This alternative scenario would be about 144 billion dollars dearer than the base.

This study assesses the impacts of promoting, through auctions, centralized solar power generatio... more This study assesses the impacts of promoting, through auctions, centralized solar power generation (concentrated solar power – CSP, and photovoltaic solar panels – PV) on the Brazilian power system. Four types of CSP plants with parabolic troughs were simulated at two sites, Bom Jesus da Lapa and Campo Grande, and PV plants were simulated at two other sites, Recife and Rio de Janeiro. The main parameters obtained for each plant were expanded to other suitable sites in the country (totaling 17.2 GW in 2040), as inputs in an optimization model for evaluating the impacts of the introduction of centralized solar power on the expansion of the electricity grid up to 2040. This scenario would be about USD$ 185 billion more expensive than a business as usual scenario, where expansion solely relies on least-cost options. Hence, for the country to incentivize the expansion of centralized solar power, specific auctions for solar energy should be adopted, as well as complementary policies to promote investments in R&D and the use of hybrid systems based on solar and fuels in CSP plants.

Energy Policy, 2013

ABSTRACT This study assesses the impacts of promoting, through auctions, centralized solar power ... more ABSTRACT This study assesses the impacts of promoting, through auctions, centralized solar power generation (concentrated solar power – CSP, and photovoltaic solar panels – PV) on the Brazilian power system. Four types of CSP plants with parabolic troughs were simulated at two sites, Bom Jesus da Lapa and Campo Grande, and PV plants were simulated at two other sites, Recife and Rio de Janeiro. The main parameters obtained for each plant were expanded to other suitable sites in the country (totaling 17.2 GW in 2040), as inputs in an optimization model for evaluating the impacts of the introduction of centralized solar power on the expansion of the electricity grid up to 2040. This scenario would be about USD$ 185 billion more expensive than a business as usual scenario, where expansion solely relies on least-cost options. Hence, for the country to incentivize the expansion of centralized solar power, specific auctions for solar energy should be adopted, as well as complementary policies to promote investments in R&D and the use of hybrid systems based on solar and fuels in CSP plants.

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Programa de Pós-Graduação em Planejamento Energético,... more Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Programa
de Pós-Graduação em Planejamento Energético,
COPPE, da Universidade Federal do Rio de
Janeiro, como parte dos requisitos necessários à
obtenção do título de Mestre em Planejamento
Energético.

A regulação recente para geração distribuída (GD) busca deslindar algumas barreiras evidenciadas ... more A regulação recente para geração distribuída (GD) busca deslindar algumas barreiras evidenciadas desde sua instituição no Brasil em 2004. Atualmente os agentes do setor elétrico brasileiro demonstram interesse em estimular GD, mas ainda não é bem determinado seu potencial econômico de penetração no médio e longo prazo. Embora a partir de 2011 as instituições governamentais voltaram a identificar a GD como uma oportunidade de geração de eletricidade, o Governo ainda não a considera no seu planejamento energético. Para tanto, é mister desenvolver ferramentas para a avaliação econômica de opções de micro
GD. Este artigo apresenta a ferramenta RETGIS que junto a um algoritmo de tomada de decisão pode ser usada para quantificar o potencial econômico da GD no país. O RETGIS é composto por dois software (QuantumGIS® e RETScreen®) que foram personalizadaspara este objetivo específico. O algoritmo propõe uma lógica de rodada iterativa do RETGIS para decidir se um determinado potencial técnico (para cada tecnologia/fonte energética) deve ser considerado como parte do potencial econômico para GD em um município específico, conforme diferentes condições de contorno econômico-financeiras. Este artigo apresenta um exemplo do uso da ferramenta para avaliação do aproveitamento de biogás oriundo da
suinocultura.

A energia solar de concentração (CSP), embora não seja aplicada em larga escala no ... more A energia solar de concentração (CSP), embora não seja aplicada em larga escala no Brasil, tem um
potencial importante em zonas específicas do território. Este trabalho analisa as diversas configurações de plantas
centralizadas CSP com armazenamento de calor e hibridização, e as vantagens da sua operação no Sistema
Interligado Nacional (SIN). Dois cenários foram analisados: base e alternativo. O cenário base está associado ao
atual contexto de incentivos, que inclui o regime fiscal atual e as regras dos órgãos financiadores; o cenário
alternativo incorpora propostas de incentivos fiscais e financeiros. Usando o software SAM, é analisada a influência
da variação na capacidade de armazenamento de calor e de hibridização sobre os custos nivelados da energia
(LCOE), o fator de capacidade e a produção anual deenergia. O estudo de caso foi desenvolvido em Campo GrandeBrasil, onde foram simuladas cinco tipos de plantasCSP de cilindro parabólico (combinações de armazenamento de
calor e hibridização) para cada cenário. Conforme os dados de entrada e as configurações de planta para cada
cenário, os valores de LCOE variaram numa ampla faixa entre 39,9 – 82,9 cent. USD/kWh no cenário base e entre
19,7 – 39,1 cent. USD/kWh no cenário alternativo.

Este trabalho simulou a operação de diferentes arranjos de plantas heliotérmicas (Concentrat... more Este trabalho simulou a operação de diferentes arranjos de plantas heliotérmicas (Concentrated Solar Power -CSP) no Nordeste do Brasil. Foi escolhido simular cilindros parabólicos (tecnologia mais madura) com potência de
100MWe (porte tecnicamente recomendado), torre seca (devido à escassez de água na região), sem e com hibridização
com gás natural (variando de 25% a 75%), e consequentemente com fatores de capacidade de 23% a 98%, em ciclo
Rankine e ciclo combinado. Foi escolhida a cidade de Bom Jesus da Lapa, na Bahia, devido à disponibilidade de dados
climatológicos de satélite. Essa localidade é considerada uma aproximação conservadora para plantas na região do semiárido. Há indícios de recursos de GN na Bacia do São Francisco e, portanto, são analisados diferentes cenários de custos do GN e seu impacto no custo nivelado de cada planta. Consideraram-se dois cenários financeiros: um cenário base, sem políticas de incentivo específicas para o setor; e outro alternativo, que considera medidas públicas de estímulo à energia
solar de alta potência no Brasil, como reduções e/ou isenções de alguns impostos; depreciação acelerada; e empréstimo do
BNDES. Os resultados das simulações indicaram um custo nivelado mínimo de 520 R$/MWh para uma planta CSP sem
hibridização; entretanto, se permitida participações de até 75% de GN na produção anual, o custo nivelado pode ficar
entre 140 R$/MWh e 190 R$/MWh. Por fim, o estudo propõe políticas de incentivo que permitam a participação e a competividade de plantas híbridas nos leilões de energia.

This study aims to quantify the technical, sustainable and economically feasible potentials ... more This study aims to quantify the technical, sustainable and economically feasible potentials of
agricultural and agro-industrial residues to generate electricity via direct combustion in
centralized power plants in Brazil. Further, the energy savings and greenhouse gas (GHG)
reduction potential of replacing diesel-based electricity by bioenergy have been assessed. To
this end, an integrated statistical, a GIS-based analysis and a life cycle assessment have been
conducted. Results reveal that the technical and sustainable potential is nearly 141 TWh/yr,
mainly concentrated in the South, Southeast, and Midwest regions. The residues of sugarcane,
soybean and maize crops are the major feedstock for available bioenergy. On the other hand,
the economic potential is far lower, accounting to 39 TWh/yr. The total GHG mitigation is
nearly 28 million tCO2e and could reach 102 million tCO
2e
yearly, if the technical potential is
considered. The gap between technical and economic potentials implies that constrains to
bioenergy are not related to a lack of resources, and as such further policies should be
implemented to foster the penetration of bioenergy in the electricity generation portfolio of
Brazil.

First published by the Institute of Development Studies in April 2015 © Institute of Development... more First published by the Institute of Development Studies in April 2015
© Institute of Development Studies/Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro 2015
Autors: Roberto Schaeffer, André F.P. Lucena, Régis Rathmann, Alexandre Szklo, Rafael Soria and Mauro Chavez-Rodriguez. April 2015

Realização: Fundação Brasileira para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável - FBDS Autores: Roberto Schaef... more Realização:
Fundação Brasileira para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável - FBDS
Autores:
Roberto Schaeffer
André Frossard Pereira de Lucena
Alexandre Salem Szklo
Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar Borba
Larissa Pinheiro Pupo Nogueira
Régis Rathmann
Rafael Soria

The people of Amazonia bear the local environmentalimpacts of producing energy for exports, but... more The people of Amazonia bear the local environmentalimpacts of producing energy for
exports, but are not themselves energy secure. Paradoxically, although Amazonia’s
rural populations are not energy secure, the region itself is increasingly important to
South America's energy security. Oil and gas reserves are abundant, hydropower
potential is vast and built infrastructure to harness its potential is being developed
rapidly. This study presents a preliminary energy balance for the Amazonian region of
five of the countries that belong to the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization
(ACTO): Bolivia, Brazil Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. Despite the poor availability of
data, a quantitative analysis of energy was performed for the Amazon region of each
country following the established methodology of OLADE, “Manual de Estadísticas
Energéticas”. Primary and secondary energy production, energy consumption and
import/export of energy carriers are presented for the Amazon region of each selected
country. Additional charts depicted proven energy endowments reserves, technical
hydropower potential and installed electric power generation capacity. Once the most
used energy carriers within Amazonia were identified, the threats and impacts to
energy security inside and outside the Amazon region are presented. This discussion
raises the need for developing policies focused on energy security for these regions,
while balancing ecological, economic and social impacts.

Se analiza el estado del arte de las fuentes de energía renovable en la matriz eléctrica ecuatori... more Se analiza el estado del arte de las fuentes de energía renovable en la matriz eléctrica ecuatoriana y el planeamiento oficial de la expansión del parque generador eléctrico hasta el 2021. Siendo la masiva presencia de hidroeléctricas la característica principal de esta expansión, el sistema eléctrico ecuatoriano puede enfrentar una situación de vulnerabilidad durante los períodos hidrológicos críticos. El objetivo del trabajo es presentar alternativas para la expansión del sector usando fuentes renovables, que contribuyan a disminuir el riesgo de déficit de energía eléctrica durante las épocas de estiaje. Específicamente, se estudia el potencial de generación eléctrica con biogás producido a partir de residuos agropecuarios en plantas centralizadas a nivel nacional, tomando como ejemplo el caso de la Provincia de Imbabura. Se verifica que existe un potencial considerable para la producción de una cantidad de energía eléctrica firme. El planeamiento del despacho podría priorizar la operación de plantas de biodigestión en la base y a la vez administrar de forma más eficiente el agua almacenada en los reservorios hidroeléctricos, satisfaciendo así la demanda en épocas de estiaje y las cargas pico. Finalmente se propone directrices para la elaboración de una política nacional de incentivo a esta tecnología visando superar algunas barreras identificadas.

This report was produced by UFRJ/COPPE/Energy Planning Program (PPE): Prof. Andre Lucena, D.Sc., ... more This report was produced by UFRJ/COPPE/Energy Planning Program (PPE): Prof. Andre Lucena, D.Sc., Prof. Roberto Schaeffer, Ph.D.,
Prof. Alexandre Szklo, D.Sc., Rafael Soria, M.Sc., Mauro Chavez, M.Sc

Energy Policy, 2013