Andy Hines | University of Houston (original) (raw)

Books by Andy Hines

The gist of the book is this: Values are changing in a consistent direction over time. Understand... more The gist of the book is this: Values are changing in a consistent direction over time. Understanding these changes will provide critical insight for understanding the future consumer landscape and designing products, services, and offerings that “fit.” The book “translates” the values changes into seven emerging need states, brought to life in the form of seven future personas, and provides a persona customization kits for those who want to tailor them to their specific needs. It will help you and your team make sense of rapidly changing consumer behavior – where they are coming from, where they are going, and what they are looking for.

I’ve been blogging frequently on values and have some short videos explaining some of the key ideas, and Chapter 1, which overviews the book, is attached.

Papers by Andy Hines

Journal of Forestry

Foresight is essential for long-term planning and forward-looking decision-making in forestry, wh... more Foresight is essential for long-term planning and forward-looking decision-making in forestry, where planning horizons often span many decades. But generating foresight is challenging due to the increasing pace and complexity of change and growing uncertainty about the future. Most change that could affect or even disrupt forestry in the future originates outside of the field, such as social, technological, economic, and environmental changes. The Forest Futures Horizon Scanning project (Forest Horizons) aims to generate foresight by identifying early signals of change from outside forestry that professionals within the field may not be aware of or pay close attention to. This article draws on the database of signals of change uncovered in the Forest Horizons project and identifies fifteen key emerging changes that could help shape the long-term future of forestry. Study Implications: The long-term nature of forestry has compelled foresters to be forward-looking and plan many decade...

World Futures Review, Jun 29, 2021

The increasing complexity and uncertainty of the future may stimulate demand for more monitoring ... more The increasing complexity and uncertainty of the future may stimulate demand for more monitoring emerging issues. Futurists have long advocated for monitoring the future on an ongoing basis or for tracking the findings of project work in practice. However, clients have historically been reluctant to invest time and money in monitoring, and little practical guidance is available on how to set up a monitoring. This article describes a pilot monitoring capability that is simple and practical to implement. It was developed as a “plug-in” to supplement an ongoing horizon scanning system. The monitoring system tracks the movement of emerging issues that were identified by horizon scanning. It provides a means to keep policy-makers informed about the progress of emerging issues and provides advance warning to develop an appropriate strategic response.

Journal of Futures Studies, Sep 1, 2019

A key purpose of the Forest Futures Horizon Scanning system is to identify weak signals of potent... more A key purpose of the Forest Futures Horizon Scanning system is to identify weak signals of potential future change and emerging issues for the USDA Forest Service and its stakeholders. An understanding of current issues facing the agency is a prerequisite for identifying weak signals and emerging issues. Scanners who work for the Forest Service generally have this understanding, but scanners from outside typically have little or no familiarity with current agency issues. This paper briefly describes an effort to develop a list of current issues for the Forest Service to be used by scanners in the Forest Futures Horizon Scanning project. Twelve broad current issues are identified and summarized.

Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks, 2012

Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to crimina... more Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.

Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks, 2012

The Career Planning and Adult Development Journal, 2015

This article argues that work is going through a transformation. It makes the case by analyzing t... more This article argues that work is going through a transformation. It makes the case by analyzing three key assumptions about the role of work (1) work is central to individual's identity (2) work structures daily life, and (3) work is the primary source of income. Three driving forces are challenging those assumptions - the rise of automation and machine intelligence, shifts in individual values, and the rise of a new economy - are described. The conclusion is that challenges to these assumptions are indeed underway and at varying stages of maturity. The implications for career development suggest a dual approach of maintaining a short-term focus on careers and gradually expanding the notion of career development into a more integrated, holistic approach of life planning.Career advisors are continuously challenged with providing guidance that balances the short-and long-term interests of clients. This special issue focuses on the long-term, and this article explores the long-term...

The Forest Futures Horizon Scanning Project, 2019

The Implications Wheel ® is a structured brainstorming technique to explore possible consequences... more The Implications Wheel ® is a structured brainstorming technique to explore possible consequences of any type of change. This paper describes an exploratory application of the Implications Wheel method to uncover potential consequences of important emerging issues identified through horizon scanning. The issue "growing apathy toward the environment" was explored. We found that even a quick, smallscale application of the method can identify many useful insights: 155 implications were generated, including many scored as highly significant.

On the Horizon, 2017

Purpose This paper aims to describe the approach used by the research team to explore the topic o... more Purpose This paper aims to describe the approach used by the research team to explore the topic of future student needs. It described the specific method, Framework Foresight, and how it was adapted to meet the circumstances of topic and client. Design/methodology/approach This paper focuses on the approach that guided the original research study on which this special issue is based. It describes the use of the Framework Foresight method developed by the Houston Foresight program and how it was adapted for the project. Findings The paper demonstrates how the Framework Foresight method can be effectively used to explore the future of a topic, in this case future student needs. It points out how it can be adapted or customized to suit particular topic or client needs. Research limitations/implications The research focused on the student perspective and identified implications of those findings for higher education institutions and their stakeholders. It did not explicitly focus on how...

This article advocates for the professionalization of foresight as beneficial to development of t... more This article advocates for the professionalization of foresight as beneficial to development of the field. It offers three reasons why: providing a focus for field-building, aiding credibility, and attracting talent. It then explores the current state of professionalization by assessing where foresight stands against the standard criteria of a profession. It concludes with recommendation on what needs to be done and how to proceed, suggesting social constructionism as a guiding perspective and five projects or initiatives to guide the process.

Bishop, and I recently co-authored Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight,... more Bishop, and I recently co-authored Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight, a book that culls the wisdom of three dozen leading futurists from around the globe. Our question to these futurists was: What are the best ways to do foresight? Their answers yielded 115 guidelines which we feel concisely capture how executives and analysts can successfully apply foresight. We then organized the guidelines into six steps fundamental to application (see The Foresight Framework). Our goal was to provide a handy reference guide to what professionals should be thinking and doing to effectively apply foresight. We also asked our contributors to explain the key benefits of the 115 guidelines. This yielded 316 benefit statements, highlighting the multiple ways organizations can benefit from foresight.

World Futures Review, 2021

The increasing complexity and uncertainty of the future may stimulate demand for more monitoring ... more The increasing complexity and uncertainty of the future may stimulate demand for more monitoring emerging issues. Futurists have long advocated for monitoring the future on an ongoing basis or for tracking the findings of project work in practice. However, clients have historically been reluctant to invest time and money in monitoring, and little practical guidance is available on how to set up a monitoring. This article describes a pilot monitoring capability that is simple and practical to implement. It was developed as a “plug-in” to supplement an ongoing horizon scanning system. The monitoring system tracks the movement of emerging issues that were identified by horizon scanning. It provides a means to keep policy-makers informed about the progress of emerging issues and provides advance warning to develop an appropriate strategic response.

Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association, 2019

World Future Review, 2009

Futurists are frequently asked "How have your predictions turned out?" We quickly explain that we... more Futurists are frequently asked "How have your predictions turned out?" We quickly explain that we don't make predictions, which are specific statements about whether something either will or won't happen by a specific date. They are a yesor-no proposition. Futurists, we say, prefer forecasting, which involves statements about the likelihood or probability of whether something will happen within a specified timefi'ame. Of course, if you make enough predictions, you're bound to eventually get one right, owing to the laws of chance rather than any particular insight into the future. The predictor will often then complain that "I predicted xyz, and no one listened," neglecting to mention that dozens of other predictions didn't pan out. Most futurists would say "so what" to the argument of predictions made in a vacuum. Put another way, we avoid the fool's gold of trying to make accurate predictions, but seek to inspire our clients to think and act differently about the future by offering "forecasts" instead. Introducing the Forecasts Clients do occasionally ask for our most probable or best-guess forecast, and this provides us the best avenue to address the accuracy question. For the purposes of this article I'll use one Andy Hines is an adjunct professor of futures studies at the University of Houston and a managing director of Social Technoiogies. He is also a co-founder and vice chairman of the Association of Professional Futurists.

Foresight, 2004

Considers branding more in line with bringing forth self‐knowledge and self‐expression than the c... more Considers branding more in line with bringing forth self‐knowledge and self‐expression than the creation of a cultivated or false self. It's not about selling “new and improved” futures tools. Rather, it's about discovering the inner and authentic you and proclaiming it to your clients. The personal brand is about recognizing who you are and what you do best, and communicating that to clients.

The gist of the book is this: Values are changing in a consistent direction over time. Understand... more The gist of the book is this: Values are changing in a consistent direction over time. Understanding these changes will provide critical insight for understanding the future consumer landscape and designing products, services, and offerings that “fit.” The book “translates” the values changes into seven emerging need states, brought to life in the form of seven future personas, and provides a persona customization kits for those who want to tailor them to their specific needs. It will help you and your team make sense of rapidly changing consumer behavior – where they are coming from, where they are going, and what they are looking for.

I’ve been blogging frequently on values and have some short videos explaining some of the key ideas, and Chapter 1, which overviews the book, is attached.

Journal of Forestry

Foresight is essential for long-term planning and forward-looking decision-making in forestry, wh... more Foresight is essential for long-term planning and forward-looking decision-making in forestry, where planning horizons often span many decades. But generating foresight is challenging due to the increasing pace and complexity of change and growing uncertainty about the future. Most change that could affect or even disrupt forestry in the future originates outside of the field, such as social, technological, economic, and environmental changes. The Forest Futures Horizon Scanning project (Forest Horizons) aims to generate foresight by identifying early signals of change from outside forestry that professionals within the field may not be aware of or pay close attention to. This article draws on the database of signals of change uncovered in the Forest Horizons project and identifies fifteen key emerging changes that could help shape the long-term future of forestry. Study Implications: The long-term nature of forestry has compelled foresters to be forward-looking and plan many decade...

World Futures Review, Jun 29, 2021

The increasing complexity and uncertainty of the future may stimulate demand for more monitoring ... more The increasing complexity and uncertainty of the future may stimulate demand for more monitoring emerging issues. Futurists have long advocated for monitoring the future on an ongoing basis or for tracking the findings of project work in practice. However, clients have historically been reluctant to invest time and money in monitoring, and little practical guidance is available on how to set up a monitoring. This article describes a pilot monitoring capability that is simple and practical to implement. It was developed as a “plug-in” to supplement an ongoing horizon scanning system. The monitoring system tracks the movement of emerging issues that were identified by horizon scanning. It provides a means to keep policy-makers informed about the progress of emerging issues and provides advance warning to develop an appropriate strategic response.

Journal of Futures Studies, Sep 1, 2019

A key purpose of the Forest Futures Horizon Scanning system is to identify weak signals of potent... more A key purpose of the Forest Futures Horizon Scanning system is to identify weak signals of potential future change and emerging issues for the USDA Forest Service and its stakeholders. An understanding of current issues facing the agency is a prerequisite for identifying weak signals and emerging issues. Scanners who work for the Forest Service generally have this understanding, but scanners from outside typically have little or no familiarity with current agency issues. This paper briefly describes an effort to develop a list of current issues for the Forest Service to be used by scanners in the Forest Futures Horizon Scanning project. Twelve broad current issues are identified and summarized.

Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks, 2012

Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to crimina... more Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.

Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks, 2012

The Career Planning and Adult Development Journal, 2015

This article argues that work is going through a transformation. It makes the case by analyzing t... more This article argues that work is going through a transformation. It makes the case by analyzing three key assumptions about the role of work (1) work is central to individual's identity (2) work structures daily life, and (3) work is the primary source of income. Three driving forces are challenging those assumptions - the rise of automation and machine intelligence, shifts in individual values, and the rise of a new economy - are described. The conclusion is that challenges to these assumptions are indeed underway and at varying stages of maturity. The implications for career development suggest a dual approach of maintaining a short-term focus on careers and gradually expanding the notion of career development into a more integrated, holistic approach of life planning.Career advisors are continuously challenged with providing guidance that balances the short-and long-term interests of clients. This special issue focuses on the long-term, and this article explores the long-term...

The Forest Futures Horizon Scanning Project, 2019

The Implications Wheel ® is a structured brainstorming technique to explore possible consequences... more The Implications Wheel ® is a structured brainstorming technique to explore possible consequences of any type of change. This paper describes an exploratory application of the Implications Wheel method to uncover potential consequences of important emerging issues identified through horizon scanning. The issue "growing apathy toward the environment" was explored. We found that even a quick, smallscale application of the method can identify many useful insights: 155 implications were generated, including many scored as highly significant.

On the Horizon, 2017

Purpose This paper aims to describe the approach used by the research team to explore the topic o... more Purpose This paper aims to describe the approach used by the research team to explore the topic of future student needs. It described the specific method, Framework Foresight, and how it was adapted to meet the circumstances of topic and client. Design/methodology/approach This paper focuses on the approach that guided the original research study on which this special issue is based. It describes the use of the Framework Foresight method developed by the Houston Foresight program and how it was adapted for the project. Findings The paper demonstrates how the Framework Foresight method can be effectively used to explore the future of a topic, in this case future student needs. It points out how it can be adapted or customized to suit particular topic or client needs. Research limitations/implications The research focused on the student perspective and identified implications of those findings for higher education institutions and their stakeholders. It did not explicitly focus on how...

This article advocates for the professionalization of foresight as beneficial to development of t... more This article advocates for the professionalization of foresight as beneficial to development of the field. It offers three reasons why: providing a focus for field-building, aiding credibility, and attracting talent. It then explores the current state of professionalization by assessing where foresight stands against the standard criteria of a profession. It concludes with recommendation on what needs to be done and how to proceed, suggesting social constructionism as a guiding perspective and five projects or initiatives to guide the process.

Bishop, and I recently co-authored Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight,... more Bishop, and I recently co-authored Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight, a book that culls the wisdom of three dozen leading futurists from around the globe. Our question to these futurists was: What are the best ways to do foresight? Their answers yielded 115 guidelines which we feel concisely capture how executives and analysts can successfully apply foresight. We then organized the guidelines into six steps fundamental to application (see The Foresight Framework). Our goal was to provide a handy reference guide to what professionals should be thinking and doing to effectively apply foresight. We also asked our contributors to explain the key benefits of the 115 guidelines. This yielded 316 benefit statements, highlighting the multiple ways organizations can benefit from foresight.

World Futures Review, 2021

The increasing complexity and uncertainty of the future may stimulate demand for more monitoring ... more The increasing complexity and uncertainty of the future may stimulate demand for more monitoring emerging issues. Futurists have long advocated for monitoring the future on an ongoing basis or for tracking the findings of project work in practice. However, clients have historically been reluctant to invest time and money in monitoring, and little practical guidance is available on how to set up a monitoring. This article describes a pilot monitoring capability that is simple and practical to implement. It was developed as a “plug-in” to supplement an ongoing horizon scanning system. The monitoring system tracks the movement of emerging issues that were identified by horizon scanning. It provides a means to keep policy-makers informed about the progress of emerging issues and provides advance warning to develop an appropriate strategic response.

Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association, 2019

World Future Review, 2009

Futurists are frequently asked "How have your predictions turned out?" We quickly explain that we... more Futurists are frequently asked "How have your predictions turned out?" We quickly explain that we don't make predictions, which are specific statements about whether something either will or won't happen by a specific date. They are a yesor-no proposition. Futurists, we say, prefer forecasting, which involves statements about the likelihood or probability of whether something will happen within a specified timefi'ame. Of course, if you make enough predictions, you're bound to eventually get one right, owing to the laws of chance rather than any particular insight into the future. The predictor will often then complain that "I predicted xyz, and no one listened," neglecting to mention that dozens of other predictions didn't pan out. Most futurists would say "so what" to the argument of predictions made in a vacuum. Put another way, we avoid the fool's gold of trying to make accurate predictions, but seek to inspire our clients to think and act differently about the future by offering "forecasts" instead. Introducing the Forecasts Clients do occasionally ask for our most probable or best-guess forecast, and this provides us the best avenue to address the accuracy question. For the purposes of this article I'll use one Andy Hines is an adjunct professor of futures studies at the University of Houston and a managing director of Social Technoiogies. He is also a co-founder and vice chairman of the Association of Professional Futurists.

Foresight, 2004

Considers branding more in line with bringing forth self‐knowledge and self‐expression than the c... more Considers branding more in line with bringing forth self‐knowledge and self‐expression than the creation of a cultivated or false self. It's not about selling “new and improved” futures tools. Rather, it's about discovering the inner and authentic you and proclaiming it to your clients. The personal brand is about recognizing who you are and what you do best, and communicating that to clients.

foresight, 1999

Answering this question is one way to determine futures or foresight deliverables. Another reason... more Answering this question is one way to determine futures or foresight deliverables. Another reason for sorting our deliverables derives from the 'delivery difficulties' I talked about in my last column.The first step in selling a programme or in addressing the delivery issue in a ...

Foresight-The journal of future studies, strategic …, 2000

The mantra in the corporation today is speed, speed, speed. Everybody is talking about the need t... more The mantra in the corporation today is speed, speed, speed. Everybody is talking about the need to get to market faster. The big driver of this infatuation is the emergence, or fear of, the `dot.coms'. Big, slow, lumbering corporations, especially those that sell physical goods ...