Hans-Petter Bjørkli | University of Bergen (original) (raw)

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Institute of Archaeology of Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences

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Papers by Hans-Petter Bjørkli

The purpose of this study is to examine the implications of the development of the Northern Sea R... more The purpose of this study is to examine the implications of the development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) with regard to governance in the Arctic. This topic is of importance as Arctic waters are getting bluer, more accessible, exploitable and attractive to investors, both public and private. Thus, numerous states and the international shipping industry are increasingly eyeing the NSR as an alternative trade route between Asia and Europe. However, the Arctic region and the NSR waters' sovereignty remain unclear. Moreover, an increased density of international merchant vessels in the Arctic Ocean, a military reasserted Russia and the growing influence of China in international politics and trade suggest that the geopolitics of the Arctic may be challenged by the NSR. 5. Examining the Northern Sea Route 42 5.1 Destination and transit shipping on the NSR 42 5.2 The historical development of shipping via the NSR 43 5.2.1 Arctic exploration 43 5.2.2 Commercialising the NSR 43 5.2.3 World War II and the strategic role of the NSR 45 5.2.4 The NSR during the Cold War 46 5.2.5 The NSR after Soviet times 48 5.3 The modern NSR and its traffic numbers 50 5.3.1 Traffic increase from 2009 50 5.3.2 International transit shipments via the NSR 52 5.3.3 Destination shipments via the NSR 57 5.3.4 Traffic decline in 2014 59 5.4 Advantages and pull factors for a greater utilisation of the NSR 63 5.4.1 Shorter sailing distance 63 5.4.2 Political instability on the Suez-Malacca route 66 5.4.3 Arctic natural resources 67 5.4.4 China's interest in the Arctic and the NSR 69 5.4.5 Reform of the NSR Administration 71 5.5 Limitations of the NSR 71 6. The implications of the NSR on Arctic governance 75 6.1 Interpreting the NSR from a realist point of view 76 6.1.1 Territorial aggression 76 6.1.2 Aggressive rhetoric 77 6.1.3 China's increasing geopolitical weight 78 6.1.4 Strengthening of Russia's armed forces 79 6.2 The NSR through a liberalist lens 80 6.2.1 The legal regime of the Arctic and the NSR 80 6.2.2 The distribution of natural resources 84 6.2.3 The Arctic Council 84 6.2.4 A stronger Russian presence in the Arctic 85 6.3 An Arctic zone of peace 87 6.4 Conflict spillover in the Arctic 88 7. Conclusion 91 7.1 Suggestions for further research 93

The purpose of this study is to examine the implications of the development of the Northern Sea R... more The purpose of this study is to examine the implications of the development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) with regard to governance in the Arctic. This topic is of importance as Arctic waters are getting bluer, more accessible, exploitable and attractive to investors, both public and private. Thus, numerous states and the international shipping industry are increasingly eyeing the NSR as an alternative trade route between Asia and Europe. However, the Arctic region and the NSR waters' sovereignty remain unclear. Moreover, an increased density of international merchant vessels in the Arctic Ocean, a military reasserted Russia and the growing influence of China in international politics and trade suggest that the geopolitics of the Arctic may be challenged by the NSR. 5. Examining the Northern Sea Route 42 5.1 Destination and transit shipping on the NSR 42 5.2 The historical development of shipping via the NSR 43 5.2.1 Arctic exploration 43 5.2.2 Commercialising the NSR 43 5.2.3 World War II and the strategic role of the NSR 45 5.2.4 The NSR during the Cold War 46 5.2.5 The NSR after Soviet times 48 5.3 The modern NSR and its traffic numbers 50 5.3.1 Traffic increase from 2009 50 5.3.2 International transit shipments via the NSR 52 5.3.3 Destination shipments via the NSR 57 5.3.4 Traffic decline in 2014 59 5.4 Advantages and pull factors for a greater utilisation of the NSR 63 5.4.1 Shorter sailing distance 63 5.4.2 Political instability on the Suez-Malacca route 66 5.4.3 Arctic natural resources 67 5.4.4 China's interest in the Arctic and the NSR 69 5.4.5 Reform of the NSR Administration 71 5.5 Limitations of the NSR 71 6. The implications of the NSR on Arctic governance 75 6.1 Interpreting the NSR from a realist point of view 76 6.1.1 Territorial aggression 76 6.1.2 Aggressive rhetoric 77 6.1.3 China's increasing geopolitical weight 78 6.1.4 Strengthening of Russia's armed forces 79 6.2 The NSR through a liberalist lens 80 6.2.1 The legal regime of the Arctic and the NSR 80 6.2.2 The distribution of natural resources 84 6.2.3 The Arctic Council 84 6.2.4 A stronger Russian presence in the Arctic 85 6.3 An Arctic zone of peace 87 6.4 Conflict spillover in the Arctic 88 7. Conclusion 91 7.1 Suggestions for further research 93

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