Ali Akarca | University of Illinois at Chicago (original) (raw)

Papers by Ali Akarca

Iktisat Isletme Ve Finans, 2010

Koc University Tusiad Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Mar 7, 2014

The Impact of population mobility on provincial turnout rates in the 2011 Turkish parliamentary e... more The Impact of population mobility on provincial turnout rates in the 2011 Turkish parliamentary election is studied, controlling for the effects of other socio-economic, demographic, political and institutional factors. Consequences of migration both at destinations and origins are considered. According to the robust regressions estimated, the relationship between turnout and education is inverse U-shaped, and between turnout and age (including generational effects), it is U-shaped. Immigration, emigration, large population, a large number of parliament members elected from a constituency, participation by large number of parties, and existence of a dominant party depress the turnout rate. However, at destinations where large numbers of immigrants from different regions are concentrated, the opportunity afforded to them to elect one of their own reduces the adverse impact of immigration significantly and in some cases even turns it to positive. That emigration, and education beyond certain level, have negative effects on turnout, that immigration's adverse effect is less in areas with high migrant concentrations, and that in Turkey, political participation is highest among the youngest voters are the novel findings of the study. The latter finding may explain why voter turnout declines in Europe and North America but not in Turkey. JEL Classifications: D72; J61

Journal of Energy Finance & Development

The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, not only caused enormous amou... more The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, not only caused enormous amounts of death, destruction and suffering, but also exposed rampant government corruption involving construction and zoning code violations. The incompetence shown by the government in providing relief, the corruption allegations in regards to those efforts, and government’s failure to prosecute corrupt officials and businessmen, further angered the public. How voters responded to these in the 2002 parliamentary election is investigated, using cross-provincial data, and controlling for other social, political and economic factors. Our results show that voters held accountable all of the political parties which participated in governments during the last decade or so, and not just the incumbents in 2002. The party in charge of the ministry responsible for earthquake relief, and parties that served longest and controlled more of the city administrations in the quake zone were blamed more. Th...

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Antalya and Muğla provinces located in southwestern Turkey have emerged as the new magnets for in... more Antalya and Muğla provinces located in southwestern Turkey have emerged as the new magnets for internal migration in the country. Characteristics of immigration from other provinces to these two are described, and analyzed in the context of the gravity model. The factors that affect the migration to Antalya and Muğla seem to be the same and their effects on the flows to each destination differ only slightly. Better job opportunities, especially in the hotel and restaurant services sector, appear as the main attraction fueling this migration. Surprisingly, the pleasant climates of the two provinces do not seem to matter. JEL Classification: J61, R23

İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 2010

Resources and Energy, 1979

1s a ~~~d~r~tio~al causatitjj running *Srom energy tb ~rn~~u~rn~~~ witfiout ~~~~~~~ This sUg@Ms t... more 1s a ~~~d~r~tio~al causatitjj running *Srom energy tb ~rn~~u~rn~~~ witfiout ~~~~~~~ This sUg@Ms that single equation dynamic ~d~~t~~~ut~ lag) regrf3sions of emp~~~rn~t 0x2 eix%gy Can be treated as reflecting behavioral r~lat~o~s~ips as opposed to solely statistical forecasting relationships. The constructed model indicates that the employment variable reacts to a change m the energy ~vaiiability inversely, after a pure delay of eight months.' The resp~nsa decays geometrically, and it is pract~~&y complete by the end of the twelfth month fallowing the shack m the energy variable. Thus, the causal dyrmmtcs between the two variables could not have becrt captured using annual data. The Song run elasticity of total employment with respect to dome&c ertergy ~nsum~~on is estimated to be -4.I355. An increase in totai ~rn~lo~rn~~t should result from a ~o~stmint on energy use, rather than the decrease aridefy predicted.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, not only caused enormous amou... more The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, not only caused enormous amounts of death, destruction and suffering, but also exposed rampant government corruption involving construction and zoning code violations. The incompetence shown by the government in providing relief, the corruption allegations in regards to those efforts, and government's failure to prosecute corrupt officials and businessmen, further angered the public. How voters responded to these in the 2002 parliamentary election is investigated, using cross-provincial data, and controlling for other social, political and economic factors. Our results show that voters held accountable all of the political parties which participated in governments during the last decade or so, and not just the incumbents in 2002. The party in charge of the ministry responsible for earthquake relief, and parties that served longest and controlled more of the city administrations in the quake zone were blamed more. The newly formed Justice and Development Party (AKP) was the beneficiary of the votes lost by these parties. The sensitivity shown by the electorate to real and perceived corruption implies that corruption problem will be tractable in Turkey, and can be reduced through increased transparency and democratization.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, caused enormous amounts of de... more The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, caused enormous amounts of death and destruction, and exposed rampant government corruption involving construction and zoning code violations, as a factor magnifying the disaster. The opposition parties and one of the incumbent parties which participated in previous national governments and held power in current and past municipal administrations were responsible for that. The other two incumbent parties came to power only a short time before the earthquakes and controlled almost none of the local administrations in the disaster zone. They on the other hand, were responsible for the incompetence shown in providing relief, for involvement in corruption related to those efforts, and for failing to prosecute the businessmen who constructed the shoddy buildings and the corrupt officials who permitted them. How voters responded to these in the 2002 parliamentary elections is investigated, using cross-provincial data, controlling for other social, political and economic factors. The fact that different groups of parties were responsible for different types of corruption and mismanagement provided us with a unique data to differentiate between voter responses to corruption and incompetence, and to corruption which has occurred before and after the earthquakes. Our results show that voters punished all of the political parties which participated in governments during the previous decade. The party in charge of the ministry responsible for disaster relief, and parties that controlled more of the city administrations in the quake zone were blamed more. The newly formed Justice and Development Party (AKP) was the main beneficiary of the votes lost by these parties. Our results corroborate the view in the corruption literature that voters react drastically only when the corruption is massive, the information on it highly-credible and well-publicized, involves large number of political parties, not accompanied by competent governance, and a non-corrupt alternative is available.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Based on the 3-way and 5-way groupings of Turkey's 81 provinces obtained in Akarca and Başlevent ... more Based on the 3-way and 5-way groupings of Turkey's 81 provinces obtained in Akarca and Başlevent (2011), we report the regional vote shares of the main parties in the Turkish party system in each nationwide election held between 1999 and 2009. The vote shares reveal that conservative right-wing parties receive a plurality of votes in all regions of the 3-way partition, but they receive significant challenge from left-wing and Turkish-nationalist parties in the west and the Kurdishnationalist parties in the east. In addition to these patterns, the 5-way partition brings out also shifts in the relative strength of the parties within each main division.

IZA Journal of Migration, 2015

The Impact of population mobility on provincial turnout rates in the 2011 Turkish parliamentary e... more The Impact of population mobility on provincial turnout rates in the 2011 Turkish parliamentary election is studied, controlling for the effects of other socio-economic, demographic, political and institutional factors. Consequences of migration both at destinations and origins are considered. According to the robust regressions estimated, the relationship between turnout and education is inverse U-shaped, and between turnout and age (including generational effects), it is U-shaped. Immigration, emigration, large population, a large number of parliament members elected from a constituency, participation by large number of parties, and existence of a dominant party depress the turnout rate. However, at destinations where large numbers of immigrants from different regions are concentrated, the opportunity afforded to them to elect one of their own reduces the adverse impact of immigration significantly and in some cases even turns it to positive. That emigration, and education beyond certain level, have negative effects on turnout, that immigration's adverse effect is less in areas with high migrant concentrations, and that in Turkey, political participation is highest among the youngest voters are the novel findings of the study. The latter finding may explain why voter turnout declines in Europe and North America but not in Turkey. JEL Classifications: D72; J61

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Using data drawn from a survey conducted shortly after the 2002 elections, we investigate the Jus... more Using data drawn from a survey conducted shortly after the 2002 elections, we investigate the Justice and Development Party's (AKP) election victory from the perspective of inter-party vote movements. Our aim is not only to identify the parties from which the AKP votes originated, but also the segments of these parties' voter bases the party appealed to in particular. Descriptive statistics suggest that almost all of the voters who had voted for the pro-Islamist party in 1999, about half of those who supported the center-right and the ultra-nationalist parties, and one-fifth to two fifth of the supporters of the center-left parties were captured by the AKP. Given that the actual vote share of the party was 34.3 percent, we interpret these figures as evidence of further voter realignment after the election. Our econometric work reveals that confidence in the economic performance of the party was a leading factor in the election outcome. For the voters attracted from the left-of-center parties, ideological factors also played an important role, whereas in the case of voters transferred from the far-right pro-Islamist and ultra-nationalist parties, it was the demographic factors. For the voters coming from the center-right, both sets of variables were important.

Public Finance Review, 1998

International Advances in Economic Research, 1997

International Advances in Economic Research, 1998

International Advances in Economic Research, 2006

The effects of changes in per capita real GDP, real taxes and real government transfer payments o... more The effects of changes in per capita real GDP, real taxes and real government transfer payments on midterm congressional election outcomes during the 1946Y2002 period are examined. Voters are found to take all of these, except taxes and transfers at the state and local government levels, into account in casting their ballots. However, the weights they place on each are found not to be the same. Consequently, the common practice of summarizing the economic conditions faced by voters through disposable income seems to be inappropriate. Also, omission of tax and transfer variables from the vote equation, and using vote swing rather than vote share as the dependent variable is found to result in underestimation of the coefficient of per capita GDP growth. (JEL D70).

European Urban and Regional Studies, 2011

Using province-level data from five nationwide elections held during the past decade, we examine ... more Using province-level data from five nationwide elections held during the past decade, we examine the main voting patterns in Turkey. By means of cluster analysis, we classify the 81 provinces according to vote shares of the major parties and independent candidates, and repeat this exercise for each election held between 1999 and 2009. We find that three-way and five-way partitions of the country adequately capture the main political cleavages in Turkey. Although the conservative right-wing parties receive a plurality of votes in all regions of the three-way partition, they receive significant challenge from left-wing and Turkish nationalist parties in the west and from the Kurdish nationalist parties in the east. In addition to these patterns, the five-way partition brings out shifts in the relative strength of the parties within each main division. Our results also show that, despite the major political realignment that occurred during the period under examination, the groupings of provinces remain mainly unchanged. Therefore, we construct 'composite clusters' by classifying provinces in the group in which they appear the majority of the time. The distinct socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the composite clusters suggest that differences in social and economic structures lie at the root of differing regional political tendencies and their persistence.

Working Papers, 2009

In 2002 elections more than half of the voters cast their ballots for a different party than the ... more In 2002 elections more than half of the voters cast their ballots for a different party than the one they chose in 1999. Two new parties received more than two-fifths of the votes. The combined vote share of the three incumbent parties dropped to 14.7 percent from 53.4 in 1999. The 1999 and 2002 election outcomes are analyzed at the provincial level, through a system of regression equations. The results obtained indicate that votes moved from the Virtue, Nationalist Action, Motherland and True Path parties (FP, MHP, ANAP and DYP) to the Justice and Development Party (AKP), from the Democratic Left Party (DSP) to the Republican People's and Young parties (CHP and GP), and from the Democratic Left, Nationalist Action and Motherland parties (DSP, MHP and ANAP) to the True Path Party (DYP). The newly formed Justice and Development Party (AKP), the winner of the 2002 election and the ruling party since then, is found to have captured all of the far-right Islamist, about half of the far-right nationalist, and more than half of the center-right votes. This will give clues as to the stability of the party and the policies it is likely to pursue. The voters appear to have been influenced by the rampant government corruption involving construction and zoning code violations, exposed by the two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, the incompetence shown by the government in providing relief, the continued corruption in regards to those efforts, and government's failure to prosecute corrupt officials and businessmen. They are found to have held accountable all of the political parties which participated in governments during the last decade or so, and not just the incumbents in 2002. The party in charge of the ministry responsible for earthquake relief, and parties which served longest and controlled more of the city administrations in the quake zone were blamed more. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) was the beneficiary of the votes lost by these parties. The sensitivity shown by the electorate to real and perceived corruption implies that corruption problem will be tractable in Turkey, and can be reduced through increased transparency and democratization. The voters may have been affected by the 2001 economic crisis as well. However this does not appear to be due to its impact on their incomes in that year but perhaps due to government's incompetence in the creation and management of the crisis. The party preferences of Turkish voters are found to depend on their socioeconomic characteristics as well.

Electoral Studies, 2007

1995 Turkish parliamentary election was held almost under the conditions of a controlled experime... more 1995 Turkish parliamentary election was held almost under the conditions of a controlled experiment. The unique cross-section data pertaining to this election is utilized to study the voter behavior in Turkey. Turkish voters are found to take government's economic performance into account but not look back beyond one year. A poor performance is found to benefit the extremist opposition parties at the expense of the major incumbent party. The minor incumbent and the centrist opposition parties appear to be unaffected by economic conditions. Voters also exhibit a tendency to vote against the parties holding power. The party preferences of Turkish voters depend on their socioeconomic characteristics as well.

Using data drawn from a nationwide voter-tendencies survey conducted shortly before the July 2007... more Using data drawn from a nationwide voter-tendencies survey conducted shortly before the July 2007 parliamentary election in Turkey, inter-party vote movements during the 2002-2007 period are investigated with the Justice and Development Party (AKP) as the focal point. A descriptive analysis relying on two and four-way partitions of the dataset reveals that, in comparison to the relatively small group of 'deserters' from the party, the 'newcomers' to the AKP are younger, mostly female, more satisfied with the performance of the economy, and more likely to be pro-EU membership. The data also shows that AKP supporters are less educated and less concerned with the threats to secularism than the rest of the voters. The key finding of the econometric work is that economic evaluationsespecially retrospective ones-have a strong association with the party choice in the 2007 elections.

Iktisat Isletme Ve Finans, 2010

Koc University Tusiad Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Mar 7, 2014

The Impact of population mobility on provincial turnout rates in the 2011 Turkish parliamentary e... more The Impact of population mobility on provincial turnout rates in the 2011 Turkish parliamentary election is studied, controlling for the effects of other socio-economic, demographic, political and institutional factors. Consequences of migration both at destinations and origins are considered. According to the robust regressions estimated, the relationship between turnout and education is inverse U-shaped, and between turnout and age (including generational effects), it is U-shaped. Immigration, emigration, large population, a large number of parliament members elected from a constituency, participation by large number of parties, and existence of a dominant party depress the turnout rate. However, at destinations where large numbers of immigrants from different regions are concentrated, the opportunity afforded to them to elect one of their own reduces the adverse impact of immigration significantly and in some cases even turns it to positive. That emigration, and education beyond certain level, have negative effects on turnout, that immigration's adverse effect is less in areas with high migrant concentrations, and that in Turkey, political participation is highest among the youngest voters are the novel findings of the study. The latter finding may explain why voter turnout declines in Europe and North America but not in Turkey. JEL Classifications: D72; J61

Journal of Energy Finance & Development

The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, not only caused enormous amou... more The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, not only caused enormous amounts of death, destruction and suffering, but also exposed rampant government corruption involving construction and zoning code violations. The incompetence shown by the government in providing relief, the corruption allegations in regards to those efforts, and government’s failure to prosecute corrupt officials and businessmen, further angered the public. How voters responded to these in the 2002 parliamentary election is investigated, using cross-provincial data, and controlling for other social, political and economic factors. Our results show that voters held accountable all of the political parties which participated in governments during the last decade or so, and not just the incumbents in 2002. The party in charge of the ministry responsible for earthquake relief, and parties that served longest and controlled more of the city administrations in the quake zone were blamed more. Th...

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Antalya and Muğla provinces located in southwestern Turkey have emerged as the new magnets for in... more Antalya and Muğla provinces located in southwestern Turkey have emerged as the new magnets for internal migration in the country. Characteristics of immigration from other provinces to these two are described, and analyzed in the context of the gravity model. The factors that affect the migration to Antalya and Muğla seem to be the same and their effects on the flows to each destination differ only slightly. Better job opportunities, especially in the hotel and restaurant services sector, appear as the main attraction fueling this migration. Surprisingly, the pleasant climates of the two provinces do not seem to matter. JEL Classification: J61, R23

İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 2010

Resources and Energy, 1979

1s a ~~~d~r~tio~al causatitjj running *Srom energy tb ~rn~~u~rn~~~ witfiout ~~~~~~~ This sUg@Ms t... more 1s a ~~~d~r~tio~al causatitjj running *Srom energy tb ~rn~~u~rn~~~ witfiout ~~~~~~~ This sUg@Ms that single equation dynamic ~d~~t~~~ut~ lag) regrf3sions of emp~~~rn~t 0x2 eix%gy Can be treated as reflecting behavioral r~lat~o~s~ips as opposed to solely statistical forecasting relationships. The constructed model indicates that the employment variable reacts to a change m the energy ~vaiiability inversely, after a pure delay of eight months.' The resp~nsa decays geometrically, and it is pract~~&y complete by the end of the twelfth month fallowing the shack m the energy variable. Thus, the causal dyrmmtcs between the two variables could not have becrt captured using annual data. The Song run elasticity of total employment with respect to dome&c ertergy ~nsum~~on is estimated to be -4.I355. An increase in totai ~rn~lo~rn~~t should result from a ~o~stmint on energy use, rather than the decrease aridefy predicted.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, not only caused enormous amou... more The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, not only caused enormous amounts of death, destruction and suffering, but also exposed rampant government corruption involving construction and zoning code violations. The incompetence shown by the government in providing relief, the corruption allegations in regards to those efforts, and government's failure to prosecute corrupt officials and businessmen, further angered the public. How voters responded to these in the 2002 parliamentary election is investigated, using cross-provincial data, and controlling for other social, political and economic factors. Our results show that voters held accountable all of the political parties which participated in governments during the last decade or so, and not just the incumbents in 2002. The party in charge of the ministry responsible for earthquake relief, and parties that served longest and controlled more of the city administrations in the quake zone were blamed more. The newly formed Justice and Development Party (AKP) was the beneficiary of the votes lost by these parties. The sensitivity shown by the electorate to real and perceived corruption implies that corruption problem will be tractable in Turkey, and can be reduced through increased transparency and democratization.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, caused enormous amounts of de... more The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, caused enormous amounts of death and destruction, and exposed rampant government corruption involving construction and zoning code violations, as a factor magnifying the disaster. The opposition parties and one of the incumbent parties which participated in previous national governments and held power in current and past municipal administrations were responsible for that. The other two incumbent parties came to power only a short time before the earthquakes and controlled almost none of the local administrations in the disaster zone. They on the other hand, were responsible for the incompetence shown in providing relief, for involvement in corruption related to those efforts, and for failing to prosecute the businessmen who constructed the shoddy buildings and the corrupt officials who permitted them. How voters responded to these in the 2002 parliamentary elections is investigated, using cross-provincial data, controlling for other social, political and economic factors. The fact that different groups of parties were responsible for different types of corruption and mismanagement provided us with a unique data to differentiate between voter responses to corruption and incompetence, and to corruption which has occurred before and after the earthquakes. Our results show that voters punished all of the political parties which participated in governments during the previous decade. The party in charge of the ministry responsible for disaster relief, and parties that controlled more of the city administrations in the quake zone were blamed more. The newly formed Justice and Development Party (AKP) was the main beneficiary of the votes lost by these parties. Our results corroborate the view in the corruption literature that voters react drastically only when the corruption is massive, the information on it highly-credible and well-publicized, involves large number of political parties, not accompanied by competent governance, and a non-corrupt alternative is available.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Based on the 3-way and 5-way groupings of Turkey's 81 provinces obtained in Akarca and Başlevent ... more Based on the 3-way and 5-way groupings of Turkey's 81 provinces obtained in Akarca and Başlevent (2011), we report the regional vote shares of the main parties in the Turkish party system in each nationwide election held between 1999 and 2009. The vote shares reveal that conservative right-wing parties receive a plurality of votes in all regions of the 3-way partition, but they receive significant challenge from left-wing and Turkish-nationalist parties in the west and the Kurdishnationalist parties in the east. In addition to these patterns, the 5-way partition brings out also shifts in the relative strength of the parties within each main division.

IZA Journal of Migration, 2015

The Impact of population mobility on provincial turnout rates in the 2011 Turkish parliamentary e... more The Impact of population mobility on provincial turnout rates in the 2011 Turkish parliamentary election is studied, controlling for the effects of other socio-economic, demographic, political and institutional factors. Consequences of migration both at destinations and origins are considered. According to the robust regressions estimated, the relationship between turnout and education is inverse U-shaped, and between turnout and age (including generational effects), it is U-shaped. Immigration, emigration, large population, a large number of parliament members elected from a constituency, participation by large number of parties, and existence of a dominant party depress the turnout rate. However, at destinations where large numbers of immigrants from different regions are concentrated, the opportunity afforded to them to elect one of their own reduces the adverse impact of immigration significantly and in some cases even turns it to positive. That emigration, and education beyond certain level, have negative effects on turnout, that immigration's adverse effect is less in areas with high migrant concentrations, and that in Turkey, political participation is highest among the youngest voters are the novel findings of the study. The latter finding may explain why voter turnout declines in Europe and North America but not in Turkey. JEL Classifications: D72; J61

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Using data drawn from a survey conducted shortly after the 2002 elections, we investigate the Jus... more Using data drawn from a survey conducted shortly after the 2002 elections, we investigate the Justice and Development Party's (AKP) election victory from the perspective of inter-party vote movements. Our aim is not only to identify the parties from which the AKP votes originated, but also the segments of these parties' voter bases the party appealed to in particular. Descriptive statistics suggest that almost all of the voters who had voted for the pro-Islamist party in 1999, about half of those who supported the center-right and the ultra-nationalist parties, and one-fifth to two fifth of the supporters of the center-left parties were captured by the AKP. Given that the actual vote share of the party was 34.3 percent, we interpret these figures as evidence of further voter realignment after the election. Our econometric work reveals that confidence in the economic performance of the party was a leading factor in the election outcome. For the voters attracted from the left-of-center parties, ideological factors also played an important role, whereas in the case of voters transferred from the far-right pro-Islamist and ultra-nationalist parties, it was the demographic factors. For the voters coming from the center-right, both sets of variables were important.

Public Finance Review, 1998

International Advances in Economic Research, 1997

International Advances in Economic Research, 1998

International Advances in Economic Research, 2006

The effects of changes in per capita real GDP, real taxes and real government transfer payments o... more The effects of changes in per capita real GDP, real taxes and real government transfer payments on midterm congressional election outcomes during the 1946Y2002 period are examined. Voters are found to take all of these, except taxes and transfers at the state and local government levels, into account in casting their ballots. However, the weights they place on each are found not to be the same. Consequently, the common practice of summarizing the economic conditions faced by voters through disposable income seems to be inappropriate. Also, omission of tax and transfer variables from the vote equation, and using vote swing rather than vote share as the dependent variable is found to result in underestimation of the coefficient of per capita GDP growth. (JEL D70).

European Urban and Regional Studies, 2011

Using province-level data from five nationwide elections held during the past decade, we examine ... more Using province-level data from five nationwide elections held during the past decade, we examine the main voting patterns in Turkey. By means of cluster analysis, we classify the 81 provinces according to vote shares of the major parties and independent candidates, and repeat this exercise for each election held between 1999 and 2009. We find that three-way and five-way partitions of the country adequately capture the main political cleavages in Turkey. Although the conservative right-wing parties receive a plurality of votes in all regions of the three-way partition, they receive significant challenge from left-wing and Turkish nationalist parties in the west and from the Kurdish nationalist parties in the east. In addition to these patterns, the five-way partition brings out shifts in the relative strength of the parties within each main division. Our results also show that, despite the major political realignment that occurred during the period under examination, the groupings of provinces remain mainly unchanged. Therefore, we construct 'composite clusters' by classifying provinces in the group in which they appear the majority of the time. The distinct socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the composite clusters suggest that differences in social and economic structures lie at the root of differing regional political tendencies and their persistence.

Working Papers, 2009

In 2002 elections more than half of the voters cast their ballots for a different party than the ... more In 2002 elections more than half of the voters cast their ballots for a different party than the one they chose in 1999. Two new parties received more than two-fifths of the votes. The combined vote share of the three incumbent parties dropped to 14.7 percent from 53.4 in 1999. The 1999 and 2002 election outcomes are analyzed at the provincial level, through a system of regression equations. The results obtained indicate that votes moved from the Virtue, Nationalist Action, Motherland and True Path parties (FP, MHP, ANAP and DYP) to the Justice and Development Party (AKP), from the Democratic Left Party (DSP) to the Republican People's and Young parties (CHP and GP), and from the Democratic Left, Nationalist Action and Motherland parties (DSP, MHP and ANAP) to the True Path Party (DYP). The newly formed Justice and Development Party (AKP), the winner of the 2002 election and the ruling party since then, is found to have captured all of the far-right Islamist, about half of the far-right nationalist, and more than half of the center-right votes. This will give clues as to the stability of the party and the policies it is likely to pursue. The voters appear to have been influenced by the rampant government corruption involving construction and zoning code violations, exposed by the two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, the incompetence shown by the government in providing relief, the continued corruption in regards to those efforts, and government's failure to prosecute corrupt officials and businessmen. They are found to have held accountable all of the political parties which participated in governments during the last decade or so, and not just the incumbents in 2002. The party in charge of the ministry responsible for earthquake relief, and parties which served longest and controlled more of the city administrations in the quake zone were blamed more. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) was the beneficiary of the votes lost by these parties. The sensitivity shown by the electorate to real and perceived corruption implies that corruption problem will be tractable in Turkey, and can be reduced through increased transparency and democratization. The voters may have been affected by the 2001 economic crisis as well. However this does not appear to be due to its impact on their incomes in that year but perhaps due to government's incompetence in the creation and management of the crisis. The party preferences of Turkish voters are found to depend on their socioeconomic characteristics as well.

Electoral Studies, 2007

1995 Turkish parliamentary election was held almost under the conditions of a controlled experime... more 1995 Turkish parliamentary election was held almost under the conditions of a controlled experiment. The unique cross-section data pertaining to this election is utilized to study the voter behavior in Turkey. Turkish voters are found to take government's economic performance into account but not look back beyond one year. A poor performance is found to benefit the extremist opposition parties at the expense of the major incumbent party. The minor incumbent and the centrist opposition parties appear to be unaffected by economic conditions. Voters also exhibit a tendency to vote against the parties holding power. The party preferences of Turkish voters depend on their socioeconomic characteristics as well.

Using data drawn from a nationwide voter-tendencies survey conducted shortly before the July 2007... more Using data drawn from a nationwide voter-tendencies survey conducted shortly before the July 2007 parliamentary election in Turkey, inter-party vote movements during the 2002-2007 period are investigated with the Justice and Development Party (AKP) as the focal point. A descriptive analysis relying on two and four-way partitions of the dataset reveals that, in comparison to the relatively small group of 'deserters' from the party, the 'newcomers' to the AKP are younger, mostly female, more satisfied with the performance of the economy, and more likely to be pro-EU membership. The data also shows that AKP supporters are less educated and less concerned with the threats to secularism than the rest of the voters. The key finding of the econometric work is that economic evaluationsespecially retrospective ones-have a strong association with the party choice in the 2007 elections.