Jason Miklian | University of Oslo (original) (raw)

Articles by Jason Miklian

Journal of Peace Research (Preprint), 2023

There is increasing interest in the potential of media sentiment to be a leading indicator or eve... more There is increasing interest in the potential of media sentiment to be a
leading indicator or even predictor of future conflict events. Literature
establishes that sentiment can be central to conflict escalation processes,
and that news media may capture and reflect peaceful or conflictual
sentiment within a given society. Moreover, analysis through machine
learning and natural language processing techniques increasingly allow
us to gather and process sentiment data at unprecedented scale, depth,
and accuracy. We draw on GDELT’s global sample of more than five
billion media articles to test the relationship between media reported
sentiment and conflict events, utilizing the PRIO-GRID data structure at
daily and monthly intervals. We find that more conflictual sentiment is
significantly associated with spatially and temporally proximate future
conflict events as measured by the ACLED, SCAD and UCDP-GED
datasets. We propose that conflict sentiment can help us analyze conflict
escalation processes more precisely by measuring emotional intensity
and direction through media sentiment analysis, delivering new value for peace and conflict research

Business Horizons (Preprint), 2023

Most existing literature on business and crisis frames crisis as a singular event that a business... more Most existing literature on business and crisis frames crisis as a singular event that a business must navigate to survive through or thrive after. But how do firms survive through a series of intersecting and overlapping crises (a polycrisis environment), and how do their strategies differ when operating through an environment of perpetual crisis? In Lebanon, overlapping crises grounded in weak political institutions, economic instability and disasters have profoundly impacted Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). Beirut SMEs operate in a complex urban environment, where neighboring conflicts, urban insecurity and sectarian divisions impact operations. These firms are often promoted in economic development discourses as engines of resilient livelihood creation, but do SMEs negotiate these conditions in productive ways for the community, and can a ‘perpetual crisis operating mentality’ deliver positive societal or economic dividends? This paper addresses these questions by developing a framework conceptualizing SME strategies to perpetual crises, drawing on 34 in-depth qualitative interviews with SME owners in Beirut. We find that SMEs use nuanced strategies to contend with multidimensional crises that are distinct from singular crisis approaches, and discuss how ‘urban crisis as condition’ may shape our understandings of SMEs as peace and development actors. We use these findings to build theory on the role of small business in perpetual crisis and on how survival strategies in such settings can upend business resilience.

Business Horizons (Preprint), 2023

The private sector has become an important part of the peace and conflict landscape, including th... more The private sector has become an important part of the peace and conflict landscape, including the business case that multinational corporations (MNCs) make for peacebuilding support. This article uses the Indonesian context to explore the foreign MNC-conflict relationship in the manufacturing sector and to challenge the inherent value of this business case across all business sectors. We analyze the effects of various dimensions of corporate investment-based presence on violent conflicts, utilizing a cross-sectional model at the district level. We find that in industrial subsectors that are upward in the value chain, intensive in raw materials and low-skilled work (e.g., Heavy Industries, Food & Tobacco), foreign firm presence exacerbates local violent conflicts. Results in other sectors further down the value chain confirm the potentially positive role of MNCs in peacebuilding. These findings are also relevant for the wider CSR literature in that relationships between host countries and MNCs in fragile or conflict-affected areas are more complex than previously acknowledged, and call for additional research into sector-specific variances on business impacts in fragile and conflict-affected settings.

Forum for Development Studies, 2020

But while COVID-19 may be pulling back our veneers of societal normalcy and stability, it did not create the weaknesses that it is exposing. Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, asymmetric relations between local and global power structures were on the rise. These fractures included deepening divides between key North and South actors as governments, businesses and citizens in the North attach renewed importance to overcoming domestic challenges at the expense of their global consequences (Bhambra, 2017), for example in prioritizing cheap fuel over climate action. But they also included new divides between North and North states that crystallized when leaders in the United States and the United Kingdom questioned fundamental alliances that were created at the end of the Second World War, finding populist ‘homegrown solutions’ to be more attractive. And new constellations of cooperation between South and South countries have emerged as they seek to make a greater stamp on global policy and clarifying their own internationalist trajectories in global leadership vacuums. In short, COVID-19 is not a catalyst for societal change, but an accelerant.

Conflict, Security and Development, 2019

After Myanmar ended military rule in 2011, significant foreign investment arrived to facilitate a... more After Myanmar ended military rule in 2011, significant foreign investment arrived to facilitate a profitable transition to an integrated regional economy, and under the promise that foreign actors can help facilitate peaceful long-term development. However, these firms have also tacitly supported an ethnic cleansing committed by the government that most have partnered with or funded. This article builds theory on economic opening, development and conflict, using research from Myanmar to forward three arguments about business actions in fragile, at-risk countries. First, international-led regulatory reform has had little impact on endemic corruption at the micro- or meso-levels, as local elites and international businesses remain the primary beneficiaries. Second, ‘development’ is a contentious topic, defined locally not as broad societal growth but the unjustified picking of winners and losers in society by foreign entities. Third, business ventures are exacerbating ethnic tensions through a liberal peace-building mentality that is unresponsive to either local conflicts or local communities. The article closes by offering three ways that these findings open future research avenues on business engagement as peace-builders and development agents in developing yet fragile states.

Sustainability, 2019

After decades of isolation, Myanmar opened up its economy to international trade in 2012. This op... more After decades of isolation, Myanmar opened up its economy to international trade in 2012. This opening led to a rapid influx of international investment, exposure to the international corporate social responsibility (CSR) community and presumed pressures to conform to related norms and practices. We report on a large-scale survey of firms operating in Myanmar, comparing perceptions of corporate practitioners of CSR and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Our findings show that awareness levels of CSR among domestic Myanmar firms match those of their international peers, but the application of and selection criteria for CSR implementation by domestic firms in Myanmar differs from typical CSR activities observed in other parts of the world, in particular by Global North firms. More surprisingly, Myanmar firms have a higher awareness of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) than their multinational counterparts. Our findings have implications for CSR advocacy in Myanmar as well as for the dissemination of corporate responsibility and sustainability into the developing world more generally.

PRIO Policy Brief, 2019

Colombia’s transition to a post-conflict country has brought security gains and economic benefits... more Colombia’s transition to a post-conflict country has brought security gains and economic benefits to many parts of the country. However, this transition has come amidst political polarization, state weakness, and continuing illicit economies. In this brief, we discuss how the private sector has reacted to this changing political and economic environment. We present lessons learned from our research, confirming that the “logic of the firm” takes different shapes in transition from conflict to peace. We recommend that policies to promote business participation in post-conflict peacebuilding should include the identification of specific business opportunities and potential markets in the regions and economic sectors considered most promising.

What are the conditions under which businesses can move beyond ‘doing no harm’ in the fragile an... more What are the conditions under which businesses can move beyond ‘doing no harm’ in the fragile and conflict-affected societies where they work to deliver more tangible positive peace dividends? Designed for businesses, practitioners, scholars and others who are interested and engaged in corporate impact in such areas, this report provides an overview of the main lessons from a four-year study of corporate peacebuilding initiatives across a range of contexts. Its main findings are formulated as seven key questions which can help evaluate risks and improve impact.

Journal of International Relations and Development, 2018

This article explores the implications of ‘business for peace’ (B4P), a new global governance par... more This article explores the implications of ‘business for peace’ (B4P), a new global governance paradigm that aims to put international businesses at the frontline of peace, stability and development efforts in fragile and conflictaffected states. This article argues that B4P entails a shift in the balance between public and private authority across what we coin the ‘business–peace nexus’ and which comprises corporate peacebuilding activities across different spatial scales and institutional settings. We explore B4P’s agency across two distinct nodes in this nexus—in global peacebuilding and development architectures, and in local peacebuilding settings in the Democratic Republic of Congo—to articulate the B4P paradigm’s multiple and contradictory effects on the balance between public and private authority in contemporary peacebuilding. On the one hand, B4P tips institutional scales towards the public by embedding corporations within public accountability structures. On the other hand, by legitimising businesses as peace actors, the B4P framework risks institutionalising asymmetrical encounters between firms and people affected by their operations. We deploy the term ‘asymmetrical governance’ to explain how the amalgamation of global and national, public and private into the operational presence of corporations skews the balance of power in their encounters with local populations.

The purpose of this article is to determine to what extent that it is possible to ‘game’ the curr... more The purpose of this article is to determine to what extent that it is possible to ‘game’ the current academic citation system by artificial means. This article studies a twelve month period of scholarly promotion through a variety of mechanisms in order to test the ability of incentive-based promotion to generate academic citations as calculated by Google Scholar. My primary hypothesis is that the Google Scholar algorithm is not sophisticated enough to be able to distinguish between the value of actual and artificial citations, and thus the citation-based system is flawed and should be de-prioritized as an assessment tool for academics until such gaps are eliminated. A follow-up article will assess the results of this experiment and its methodology, and discuss what implications that these findings may have for the current citation-based system of academic value measurement for scholars.

After Myanmar ended military rule in 2011, significant foreign investment arrived to facilitate a... more After Myanmar ended military rule in 2011, significant foreign investment arrived to facilitate a profitable transition to an integrated regional economy, and under the promise that foreign actors can help facilitate peaceful long-term development. However, these firms have also tacitly supported an ethnic cleansing committed by the government that most have partnered with or funded. This article builds theory on economic opening, development and conflict, using research from Myanmar to forward three arguments about business actions in fragile, at-risk countries. First, international-led regulatory reform has had little impact on endemic corruption at the micro or meso levels, as local elites and international businesses remain the primary beneficiaries. Second, ‘development’ is a contentious topic, defined locally not as broad societal growth but the unjustified picking of winners and losers in society by foreign entities. Third, business ventures are exacerbating ethnic tensions through a liberal peacebuilding mentality that is unresponsive to either local conflicts or local communities. The article closes by offering three ways that these findings build theory on business engagement as peacebuilders and development agents in developing yet fragile states.

SSRN Working Paper February 2017

India's cities are projected to grow by 300 million people by 2050, but this demographic transiti... more India's cities are projected to grow by 300 million people by 2050, but this demographic transition may exacerbate fragile communal and infrastructural tensions. To address these challenges, the 'Smart Cities' agenda attempts to leverage India's rapid embrace of technology to generate societal positive developmental outcomes in urban areas that emphasize the use of Internet and communications technologies (ICTs). However, local, regional and national government agencies struggle to balance embracing technology with inclusive development that protects civil rights and liberties. While the benefits are often stated, the acceleration of technology use in urban development can also create exclusionary cities, and many technologies that drive India's modernization have also facilitated riots and violence between communities. This article explores these contradictions, examining scholarship on Smart Cities and ICTs in the context of the 2015–2016 Patel/Patidar agitation in Gujarat. We conclude by offering forward pathways for the Smart Cities and mobile technology agendas that support inclusive urban growth and development in India but are also mindful of civil liberties.

How can we foster more socially responsible pro-peace innovations that also have deeper impact? I... more How can we foster more socially responsible pro-peace innovations that also have deeper impact? In arguing that incorporating contextual, area-specific and conflict-sensitive guidance enhances the quality and depth of innovation, this article calls for a new research approach on Peace Innovation (PI). This approach could help overcome four existing challenges: expanding the scholar–entrepreneur–policy triad of PI; prioritizing ethical, culturally sensitive engagement; designing innovation to more clearly deliver positive impacts in conflict environments; and glocalizing the PI playing field. We then explore five thematic areas where PI can be impactful: forecasting political economies of conflict; business and virtual peacebuilding; climate and environmentalism; migration and identity; and urbanization. Finally, we discuss how to operationalize such partnerships, moving the theoretical discussion on PI forward for both the peacebuilding and innovation communities. Pushing research frontiers forward will also help innovators develop better tools that prevent violence and promote peace in crisis and conflict environments.

What factors explain attacks on humanitarian aid workers? Most research has tended to describe tr... more What factors explain attacks on humanitarian aid workers? Most research has tended to describe trends rather than analyse the underlying reasons behind attacks. To move this agenda forward, we present to our knowledge the first peer-reviewed cross-national time-series study that identifies factors related to violent attacks on humanitarian aid workers. Our theoretical framework explores two sets of potential explanatory factors: dynamics of conflicts; and the politicization and militarization of humanitarian operations. Using a global sample at the country level from 1997 to 2014, our results suggest that: (i) the presence and severity of armed conflicts are related to increased attacks on aid workers; (ii) aid workers do not appear to face greater risks even where civilians are targeted; (iii) the presence of an international military force does not appear to add to nor decrease risks to aid workers; and (iv) the effects of peacekeeping operations upon humanitarian security are varied. We discuss this in light of the ongoing challenges facing humanitarian organizations to provide security in fragile and conflict-affected areas.

The literature on the relationship between the private sector, armed conflict, and peacebuilding ... more The literature on the relationship between the private sector, armed conflict, and peacebuilding has extensively analyzed how companies adapt to unstable contexts, what risks they face and how they are tackled, and the degree to which expected peace dividends serve as motivation for companies to engage in peacebuilding. However, while the importance of the private sector for war-to-peace transitions is clear, little has been said about the specific strategies adopted by companies in transition periods. How do companies prepare for peace? What choices do they face? How essential is the role of the CEO or owner? What unique strategies do firms take to adapt to political change? This paper aims to build theory on business strategies in times of transition from conflict to peace to prioritize an under-studied branch of business-peace literature. We identify four types of business strategies for peace (operational, political, philanthropic, public relations). We explore these strategies through choices of firms operating in Colombia to expose key literature gaps and suggest five new research strands that have the potential to integrate strategy and risk calculations into testable study of business-peace relationships.

WORKING PAPER DRAFT, ISA 2017 - PLEASE DO NOT CITE WITHOUT PERMISSION

The agenda on business and peace has made significant theoretical and empirical progress in the p... more The agenda on business and peace has made significant theoretical and empirical progress in the past decade, and we are at an inflection point regarding its forward value for scholars, practitioners and firms. In support, this article provides a forward pathway for the business-peace framework, illustrating the practical advantages of how emerging literature can refine our forward understanding of the business-peace relationship, illuminating research opportunities as new actors expand the boundaries of what we consider business contributions to peace. First, five business-peace assertions are updated in reflection of new research. Next, three key forces that drive assertions for business contributions to peace action of motivation, integration, and effectiveness are explored. Finally, reactions by tech firms in the United States to Donald Trump's executive order banning citizens of seven countries are briefly explored to show potential new business-peace research streams as this global order shifts. Political and economic 'seismic shifts' are drawn upon throughout to lay out the theoretical future of the business-peace agenda in reflection of the growing global prominence of Global South businesses in conflict and crisis regions, the rise of illiberal democracy and more inward-facing nationalisms, and the influence of both upon the multilateral institutions that have been a core proponent of this agenda.

The new 'Business For Peace' (B4P) paradigm urges corporations to become more active political pa... more The new 'Business For Peace' (B4P) paradigm urges corporations to become more active political participants in conflict zones and fragile post-conflict environments of operation. This thrust is designed both to harness the local power of corporations for good, and as a potential alternative to traditional development aid. While B4P's positive impact through economic opening and Corporate Social Responsibility is assumed, corporate presence can exacerbate conflict dynamics in certain settings. As B4P is becoming a standardized component of multilateral development and aid activities per the United Nations Global Compact B4P platform and the UN's 'Delivering As One' mandate, exploring B4P's influence on business, development, and conflict is increasingly relevant to understanding institutional responses to peace and peacebuilding.

In this course, held at the Research School on Peace and Conflict by the Peace Research Institute Oslo, we will unpack the relationships between business, conflict and liberal peace politics that led to the B4P and broader business-peace frameworks, and collaboratively explore how businesses see their new role as peacebuilders and peacemakers, particularly within the international community's multi-billion dollar development agenda in fragile and conflict-affected states.

The course is structured as follows: After a brief introductory session to discuss the agenda and learn course participants’ backgrounds and motivations, we will hold two 3-hour sessions per day for the three-day course period, each designed to address a different thematic challenge of business and peace scholarship and practice. Sessions are designed to be collaborative and discussion-oriented, with the readings and discussion questions to be used as a springboard for questions of interest by participants. At the end of each day we will hold a brief concluding wrap-up session to tackle big picture questions and distill key lessons from the day’s discussion.

Additional information and course signup is available at: http://www.peaceconflictresearch.org/Courses/Course/?x=1107

(forthcoming in Business, Peace and Sustainable Development, 2017)

El análisis de los puntos claves del proyecto: “Huellas de Paz” (HP) de la Federación Nacional de... more El análisis de los puntos claves del proyecto: “Huellas de Paz” (HP) de la Federación Nacional de Cafeteros en Colombia permite observar cómo iniciativas de construcción de paz impulsadas por el sector privado pueden mejorar el desarrollo económico y social a nivel local. El caso de HP afirma varias ideas existentes alrededor de la idea de «empresa y paz» y da luces para entender ciertos vacíos en la literatura. Este caso también ofrece caminos para que los hacedores de política pública respalden, bajo circunstancias específicas, futuras alianzas por el desarrollo con el sector empresarial y esfuerzos locales de construcción de paz desde la empresa privada. Los resultados aquí presentados pueden guiar a las firmas a considerar iniciativas similares, tener en cuenta la agenda de «empresa y paz» a futuro y mejorar potencialmente la probabilidad de éxito de este tipo de iniciativas en regiones frágiles y afectadas por el conflicto armado.

Journal of Peace Research (Preprint), 2023

Business Horizons (Preprint), 2023

Forum for Development Studies, 2020

Conflict, Security and Development, 2019

Sustainability, 2019

PRIO Policy Brief, 2019

Journal of International Relations and Development, 2018

After Myanmar ended military rule in 2011, significant foreign investment arrived to facilitate a... more After Myanmar ended military rule in 2011, significant foreign investment arrived to facilitate a profitable transition to an integrated regional economy, and under the promise that foreign actors can help facilitate peaceful long-term development. However, these firms have also tacitly supported an ethnic cleansing committed by the government that most have partnered with or funded. This article builds theory on economic opening, development and conflict, using research from Myanmar to forward three arguments about business actions in fragile, at-risk countries. First, international-led regulatory reform has had little impact on endemic corruption at the micro or meso levels, as local elites and international businesses remain the primary beneficiaries. Second, ‘development’ is a contentious topic, defined locally not as broad societal growth but the unjustified picking of winners and losers in society by foreign entities. Third, business ventures are exacerbating ethnic tensions through a liberal peacebuilding mentality that is unresponsive to either local conflicts or local communities. The article closes by offering three ways that these findings build theory on business engagement as peacebuilders and development agents in developing yet fragile states.

SSRN Working Paper February 2017

WORKING PAPER DRAFT, ISA 2017 - PLEASE DO NOT CITE WITHOUT PERMISSION

Additional information and course signup is available at: http://www.peaceconflictresearch.org/Courses/Course/?x=1107

(forthcoming in Business, Peace and Sustainable Development, 2017)

Cambridge University Press, 2024

How can business leaders navigate through a world of polycrisis? This work blends historical less... more How can business leaders navigate through a world of
polycrisis? This work blends historical lessons, firsthand accounts, and
ethical perspectives on crisis to fill a key gap in our understanding of
effective, ethical leadership through settings of crisis, conflict and/or
fragility. Pulling from historical events and contemporary research, this
Element looks past individual crises and explores a world of
overlapping, permanent crises, or “polycrisis.” It contrasts traditional
leadership responses with values of community and authenticity,
emphasizing the necessity of ethical and servant leadership when
conventional business strategies fail. This work offers insights for
anyone interested in understanding and navigating the complex
landscape of crisis and strategizes enduring leadership for constant
crises.

India's image as a powerful player in global politics and a contender to superpower status is boo... more India's image as a powerful player in global politics and a contender to superpower status is boosted by its explosive economic growth and demographic trends. While competition with China for Asian supremacy and threats from Pakistan are seen by many as the major obstacles to the realization of India's growth potential, the human security challenges in this volume have received far less attention. Analysts who ignore or underestimate these challenges not only run the risk of overlooking key impediments to India's development, but may also fail to recognize the gravity of current threats to the welfare and very survival of millions of Indian citizens.

India's explosive economic growth and emerging power status make it a key country of interest for... more India's explosive economic growth and emerging power status make it a key country of interest for policymakers, researchers and scholars within South Asia and around the world. But while many of India's threats and conflicts are strategized and discussed extensively within the confines of security studies, strategic studies and conventional international relations perspectives, many less visible challenges are set to impact significantly on India's potential for economic growth as well as the human security and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of Indian citizens.

Drawing on extensive research within India, this book looks at some of the ‘hidden risks’ that India faces, exploring how a broadened scope of what constitutes ‘risk’ itself holds value for Indian security studies practitioners and policymakers. It highlights several human security risks facing India, including the inability of the world’s largest democracy to deal effectively with widespread poverty and health issues, resource depletion and environmental mismanagement, pervasive corruption and institutionalized crime, communal violence, a protracted Maoist insurgency, and deadlocked peace processes in the Northeast among others. The book extracts common themes from these seemingly disparate problems, discussing what underlying failures allow them to persist and why policymakers heavily securitize some political issues while ignoring others.

Providing an understanding of how several lesser-studied risks can pose potential or actual threats to Indian society and its ‘emerging power’ growth narrative, this book is a useful contribution to South Asian Studies, International Security Studies and Global Politics.

Millions of people around world have been displaced in just the past decade by natural resource p... more Millions of people around world have been displaced in just the past decade by natural resource projects, and the complex dynamics of displacement can lead to violent conflict. Relating how displacement can influence war and violence – where it erupts, and how conflict resolution can be used to defuse tensions

In this presentation I illustrate how new global shifts can help us decipher the future of land and conflict, exploring 3 theoretical propositions for understanding the relationship between resource acquisition, displacement, and the potential for violent conflict today

According to the Human Security Report (2005; 2009/2010), India remains the world’s second most c... more According to the Human Security Report (2005; 2009/2010), India remains the world’s second most conflict-prone country (after Burma/Myanmar) in the post-World War II period. India also ranks highest in terms of cases of armed conflict and one-sided violence as of the 2002-2003 ‘Human Security Audit’. As the world’s most violent democracy, India’s armed conflicts are both numerous and protracted, but are generally low-intensity. Perhaps this is why India is seldom studied as a country in conflict. Nor does it feature in the study of post-conflict peacebuilding even as policymakers and analysts turn their attention to the external peacebuilding strategies and potentials of emerging powers (see for instance Sagar 2009, Schweller 2011). In this paper we address this gap with a structured examination and analysis of Indian responses to some of its most significant and long-lasting internal conflicts before and after the watershed 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, querying whether and how Indian approaches to peacebuilding are
best described as ‘liberal’, ‘illiberal’, or ‘hybrid’, and whether there is an inherently ‘Indian’ mode of peacebuilding at all. We aim to contribute to the critical rethinking of (il)liberal peacebuilding and hybrid peace governance, illustrating not only that peacebuilding activities can be employed internally in addition to their traditional use of external actors trying to fix ‘failed’ states, but that Indian debates on conflict management and resolution already employ the rhetoric (if not the actions) of liberal peacebuilding to justify interventions of varied degrees of liberality across the country through developmental security lenses.

SSRN Electronic Journal

Proceedings - Academy of Management, Aug 1, 2019

Forum for development studies, May 3, 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic makes us vividly aware of the major global imbalances and challenges that w... more The COVID-19 pandemic makes us vividly aware of the major global imbalances and challenges that we collectively face today (Sakketa and Koebner, 2020; Sumner et al., 2020). As we witness too often, a crisiswhether economic, political, environmental or socialtends to hit the poorest, weakest and most marginal the hardest, laying bare the most acute societal and political weaknesses of countries around the world. But while COVID-19 may be pulling back our veneers of societal normalcy and stability, it did not create the weaknesses that it is exposing. Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, asymmetric relations between local and global power structures were on the rise. These fractures included deepening divides between key North and South actors as governments, businesses and citizens in the North attach renewed importance to overcoming domestic challenges at the expense of their global consequences (Bhambra, 2017), for example in prioritizing cheap fuel over climate action. But they also included new divides between North and North states that crystallized when leaders in the United States and the United Kingdom questioned fundamental alliances that were created at the end of the Second World War, finding populist 'homegrown solutions' to be more attractive. And new constellations of cooperation between South and South countries have emerged as they seek to make a greater stamp on global policy and clarifying their own internationalist trajectories in global leadership vacuums. In short, COVID-19 is not a catalyst for societal change, but an accelerant. This Special Issue has derived its contributions from what was discussed within the Fifth Joint Nordic Conference on Development Research, held June 2019 in Copenhagen. 1 While COVID-19 is a problem of 2020, we were struck by how our contributions speak to the immediately of its consequences upon development, even though the articles were largely conceived of the year before. Further, as the conference ensured

SSRN Electronic Journal

There is increasing interest in the potential of media sentiment to be a leading indicator or eve... more There is increasing interest in the potential of media sentiment to be a leading indicator or even predictor of future conflict events. Literature establishes that sentiment can be central to conflict escalation processes, and that news media may capture and reflect peaceful or conflictual sentiment within a given society. Moreover, analysis through machine learning and natural language processing techniques increasingly allow us to gather and process sentiment data at unprecedented scale, depth, and accuracy. We draw on GDELT’s global sample of more than five billion media articles to test the relationship between media reported sentiment and conflict events, utilizing the PRIO-GRID data structure at daily and monthly intervals. We find that more conflictual sentiment is significantly associated with spatially and temporally proximate future conflict events as measured by the ACLED, SCAD and UCDP-GED datasets. We propose that conflict sentiment can help us analyze conflict escalation processes more precisely by measuring emotional intensity and direction through media sentiment analysis, delivering new value for peace and conflict research

Forum for Development Studies, 2020

The ten-year civil war in Nepal began in 1996 when the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (or CPN-M,... more The ten-year civil war in Nepal began in 1996 when the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (or CPN-M, also known as the Maoists) launched a violent insurgency against representatives of the government of Nepal. The Maoists justified their fight through an ideology that defined violent political struggle as an extension of class warfare against elite domination of political and economic life. The Maoists grew in areas where a vacuum of government prevailed, directing their attacks against illequipped state institutions, including the police and army, as well as civilians. The conflict increased in scope and intensity over time, and King Gyanendra responded in 2005 by disbanding Parliament, instituting a pan-Nepal political emergency and directing the Nepal Army to attack the Maoists. However, these measures turned popular support against the king and brought the Maoists, political parties and civil society together to demand a return to democracy. Massive nonviolent demonstraIn November ...

Business and Politics, 2019

How can we better understand the complex interaction effects that are triggered when businesses a... more How can we better understand the complex interaction effects that are triggered when businesses and international government agencies become partners in social development? To answer, this article presents field experiences of Heineken in the Democratic Republic of Congo, ethnic cleansing in Myanmar, and the United Nations Global Compact in Dubai, to show the impact of key multi-stakeholder business-development policies as experienced by millions of people. These cases help us understand business and sustainable development interactions by exploring existing research gaps regarding issues of discourse, guidance, and legitimacy. This article has four aims: (1) to show that business-development interactions are much more complex than most case studies are able to encapsulate; (2) to explore how unintended ripple effects of even the most promising “win-win” business-development policies can carry catastrophic consequences; (3) to illustrate the potential benefits of a novel methodology...

Academy of Management Proceedings, 2019

Conflict, Security & Development, 2019

After Myanmar ended military rule in 2011, significant foreign investment arrived to facilitate a... more After Myanmar ended military rule in 2011, significant foreign investment arrived to facilitate a profitable transition to an integrated regional economy, and under the promise that foreign actors can help facilitate peaceful long-term development. However, these firms have also tacitly supported an ethnic cleansing committed by the government that most have partnered with or funded. This article builds theory on economic opening, development and conflict, using research from Myanmar to forward three arguments about business actions in fragile, at-risk countries. First, international-led regulatory reform has had little impact on endemic corruption at the micro-or meso-levels, as local elites and international businesses remain the primary beneficiaries. Second, 'development' is a contentious topic, defined locally not as broad societal growth but the unjustified picking of winners and losers in society by foreign entities. Third, business ventures are exacerbating ethnic tensions through a liberal peace-building mentality that is unresponsive to either local conflicts or local communities. The article closes by offering three ways that these findings open future research avenues on business engagement as peacebuilders and development agents in developing yet fragile states.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2016

The conjunction of business and peace is a growing global phenomenon, but conducted and researche... more The conjunction of business and peace is a growing global phenomenon, but conducted and researched over a vast array of fields and contextual settings. This article provides theoretical order for this disparate material, illustrating cutting-edge research and highlighting the most urgent knowledge gaps to fill. Extracting findings from the business community, international organizations, and the academic community, this article maps these findings into five assertions about how businesses impact upon peace: economic engagement facilitates a peace dividend; encouraging local development facilitates local capacities for peace; importing international norms improves democratic accountability; firms can constrain the drivers or root causes of conflict; and undertaking direct diplomatic efforts with conflict actors builds and/or makes peace. These assertions provide a framework for categorizing and testing prominent business-peace arguments. They also support preliminary arguments that businesses cannot expect to be rewarded as peacebuilders just because they undertake peacebuilding activities, that economic opening only brings as much peace as a local regime will allow, and that truly courageous business-peace choices are rarely made in fragile contexts. This framework can encourage more coherent scholarly findings and more effective business engagements within the complex and challenging realm of peacebuilding. This paper was written as a contribution to the collaborative learning project entitled: Business and Peace. It is a joint project of CDA Collaborative Learning Projects (CDA), the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), and the Africa Centre for Dispute Settlement (ACDS), funded by the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The project aims to fill the large gap in evidence regarding the effectiveness of business efforts for peace, providing a framework and practical guidance for more effective planning and evaluation of business-peace initiatives, policies and practices. Comments, critiques and corrections are welcome. More information about the initiative can be found here:

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017

International Area Studies Review, 2016

Ahmedabad is often called an Indian ‘success story’ in terms of economic urbanization, but it is ... more Ahmedabad is often called an Indian ‘success story’ in terms of economic urbanization, but it is also a city highly segregated along religious and caste lines, and a flashpoint in the 2002 Hindu–Muslim riots that left thousands dead. Most of the Muslim communities relocated after the violence work in a vast informal sector around the city’s landfills and waste management peripheries that are disregarded by local government and endemic with corruption. While many scholars see this as a recipe for violent conflict, we explore the garbage slum community in Chandola to show that a leveling of social stratification and reduction of segregation amongst Hindu and Muslim communities in this slum results in a more congruous inter-group relationship than current literatures on the relationship between poverty, religion and violence might predict. However, their unity has come at the expense of jointly ‘othering’ an even more vulnerable group of newcomers – a Bangladeshi migrant community that is persecuted both by the state as well as by fellow residents. We show that while violence markers are constituted in new ways, challenging some assumptions of how inter-group violence is triggered, the fundamental societal weaknesses that facilitate such tensions remain prevalent despite changing conflict actor allegiances.

Review of International Studies, 2016

After the ‘CNN effect’ concept was coined two decades ago, it quickly became a popular shorthand ... more After the ‘CNN effect’ concept was coined two decades ago, it quickly became a popular shorthand to understand media-conflict interactions. Although the connection has probably always been more complex than what was captured in the concept, research needs to be updated in order to better understand the multifaceted contemporary environments of both media and conflict. There are growing numbers and types of media sources, and multiple interactions between media and conflict actors, policymakers and engaged publics from the local to the global and back. We argue that understanding the impact of media reporting on conflict requires a new framework that captures the multilevel and hybrid media environments of contemporary conflicts. This study provides a roadmap of how to systematically unpack this environment. It describes and explains how different levels, interactions, and forms of news reporting shape conflicts and peacebuilding in local, national and regional contexts, and how inte...

SAIS Review of International Affairs, 2013

Institutionalized corruption is pervasive in India. It requires individuals and businesses to neg... more Institutionalized corruption is pervasive in India. It requires individuals and businesses to negotiate bureaucratic mazes, pay off government servants, and break laws merely to acquire the basic elements of governance. With nearly half of India's economic activity in the informal sector, 'shadow economies' permeate the lives of every citizen. What on the surface looks like a dysfunctional or broken system operates smoothly and beneficially for the politicians, businesses, and connected individuals who use it with ease. For the average Indian citizen, however, access is challenging, and corruption is a visible reminder of the failed promise of democracy. This article broadens the anti-corruption agenda in India by recognizing how corruption carries with it ingrained structural components that cannot be disentangled from the formal sector. In some cases, what is thought of as 'corruption' actually improves operational efficiency for citizens when compared to India's overworked judiciary and extensive bureaucracy. Any serious attempt to 'fix' corruption must also account for the rationalizations of individuals and companies that engage in what are commonly seen as corrupt activities.

... &#x27;Domestic Institutions and the Duration of Civil War Settlements.&#x27; ... more ... &#x27;Domestic Institutions and the Duration of Civil War Settlements.&#x27; Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, New Orleans, March 24-27, 2002. 3 Hartzell, Caroline and Matthew Hoddie, 2005. ... 13 IRIN News Wire, 17 January 2007. ...

Climate change-induced events amplify existing social, political, economic, infrastructural and e... more Climate change-induced events amplify existing social, political, economic, infrastructural and environmental concerns in many Global South cities, and perhaps no city is more vulnerable than Bangladesh's capital of Dhaka. Climate-induced rural-urban migration is a profound concern, and Dhaka's political leaders have embraced technology-based innovation as a solution pathway. This article explores the societal impact of Dhaka's innovation environment strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Employing a case study qualitative methodology, our three findings challenge existing assumptions about innovation-urban climate mitigation relationships: First, the most effective innovations were not the most technologically advanced, but those with the highest degree of participant ownership. Second, gaps between recipient, corporate and governmental understandings of effective mitigation and adaptation harmed projects, and were driven by different definitions of risk and competing understandings of vulnerability. Third, even the most technical climate adaptation measures were inherently political in their application. We discuss how to better position urban climate innovation infrastructures in Bangladesh and beyond, including developing a better recognition of how political factors influence innovation lifecycles for urban climate mitigation and widening our definitions of 'innovation' to better incorporate more effective and inclusive climate adaptation solutions.