Jean Dubé | Université Laval (original) (raw)

Papers by Jean Dubé

Journal of Real Estate Literature

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)The increasing availability of geolocated data opens up ... more (ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)The increasing availability of geolocated data opens up new avenues to spatial analysis, especially in real estate applications. Following the identification of the spatial dependence issue by Cliff and Ord (1968), the number of scientific publications associated with the keywords spatial autocorrelation, spatial analysis, and spatial econometrics has increased since the 1990s and illustrates the enthusiasm for such methods (Exhibit 1).1 While the classical correlation statistic refers to the relations between variables, spatial autocorrelation refers to the correlation between values of different observations for a single variable and is described as the coincidence between observed variables depending on location (Anselin and Bera, 1998; Chasco and Lopez, 2008; LeSage and Pace, 2009). Spatial autocorrelation is a key concept in studies using spatial data: ''No other concept in empirical spatial research is as central to model building as is spatial autocorrelation'' (Getis, 2008, p. 299).Spatial analysis and spatial econometrics have been developed after the pioneer work of Cliff and Ord (1968) and Paelinck et al. (1979) and are a response on how to account for spatial dependence in statistical models. The difference between the two lies in how spatial dimension is accounted for in modeling strategies, especially through the data generating process (DGP) and the way we specify the spatial connections among geographical observations. In spatial econometrics, this connection is formalized through a weights matrix. Some argue that even in an exclusively spatial perspective, the weights matrix is the cornerstone of spatial econometrics, and due to its exogenous specification, also its main weakness (Anselin, 2002; Elhorst, 2010; Bhattacharjee, Castro, and Marques, 2012; Chen, 2012). On the other hand, others claim that too much attention is drawn to defining the good spatial weight matrix specification, which became the biggest myth in spatial econometrics (LeSage and Pace, 2010).In recent years, spatial econometric developments tend to include the temporal dimension to the spatial cross-sectional perspective (Arbia, 2011). Adding the temporal perspective is a critical transition to analyze the dynamic process and its evolution (Anselin, 2002). By including a temporal dependency in spatial analysis, the DGP becomes more complex. Spatiotemporal models are mainly developed through the panel or pseudo-panel perspectives (Elhorst, 2013). Few attempts have been made, outside the spatial panel analysis perspective, to combine spatial and temporal dependencies for spatial data collected over time, while not being repeated, such as in the case of real estate transactions. In such a case, time constraints are often neglected, assuming the simultaneous observation of the data (Dubeand Legros, 2011, 2013b). However, this assumption remains to be verified (Dube, Baumont, and Legros, 2013) and a misinterpretation of the data structure could affect the detection and adequate correction of spatial autocorrelation, since ignoring the temporal dimension suggests an overestimation of spatial relations.To our knowledge, no study has attempted to empirically demonstrate the impact of such omission on the spatial dependence statistics beyond a limited number of case studies or Monte Carlo simulations (e.g., Dubeand Legros, 2014a, 2015). The stakes are high because a poor detection and correction for autocorrelation may bias estimators or affect their variance and therefore invalidate the results obtained from statistical analysis. The presence of spatial autocorrelation in residuals of ordinary least squares (OLS) models leads to increased risk of type 1 error and affects the model goodness-of-fit statistic (R2) (Anselin, 2002; Haining, 2009). ''This is problematic since failing to account for serial and spatial autocorrelation when present causes the OLS estimators to lose their property of efficiency'' (Elhorst, 2001, p. …

GeoComputational Analysis and Modeling of Regional Systems, 2017

Empirical applications using individual spatial data pooled over time usually neglect the fact th... more Empirical applications using individual spatial data pooled over time usually neglect the fact that such data are not only spatially localized: they are also collected over time, i.e. temporally localized. So far, little effort has been devoted to proposing a global way for dealing with spatial data (cross-section) pooled over time, such as real estate transactions, business start-up, crime and so on. However, the spatial effect, in such a context, can be decomposed in two different components: a multidirectional spatial effect (same time period) and a unidirectional spatial effect (previous time period). Based on real estate literature, this chapter presents different spatio-temporal autoregressive (STAR) models and shows how spatial econometrics models can be extended for empirical investigation. Using a Monte Carlo experiment, we underline the effect of neglecting the decomposition of the spatial effect on the bias of the autoregressive coefficients as well as on the interpretation of the marginal effect. An empirical experiment using apartment sales in Paris between 1990 and 2003 supports the global results obtained through the Monte Carlo experiment.

Canadian Journal of Regional Science, 2021

En géographie économique, les déterminants du développement économique favorisent souvent les gra... more En géographie économique, les déterminants du développement économique favorisent souvent les grandes villes et agglomérations. Pour les plus petites villes, plusieurs études ont souligné l’importance des facteurs endogènes dans le développement et, par extension, le rôle de la territorialité. À ce jour, peu d’études statistiques ont formellement démontré, du moins à grande échelle, le lien qui peut exister entre les facteurs classiques de localisation, le profil démographique et le portrait socio-économique sur la présence et l’émergence d’initiatives locales de développement. Cette étude propose donc de contribuer à réduire cet écart. À partir de données autodéclarées sur la localisation d’initiatives locales au Québec, deux modèles statistiques sont estimés : i) un premier axé sur la présence/absence d’initiatives (régression logistique); et ii) un second basé sur le nombre d’initiatives (régression binomiale négative). Dans les deux cas, les résultats suggèrent qu’il existe une ...

Canadian Journal of Regional Science, 2021

Depuis les années 2000, les microbrasseries et leurs produits ont connu un essor impressionnant. ... more Depuis les années 2000, les microbrasseries et leurs produits ont connu un essor impressionnant. Si certains écrits se sont intéressés aux particularités des microbrasseries et de ses consommateurs, encore peu d’efforts ont été voués à explorer l’hypothèse selon laquelle cette industrie représente un vecteur de développement économique, mais aussi social. Bien que la microbrasserie, et plus particulièrement le broue-pub, poursuive un objectif économique indéniable (une rentabilité minimale pour rester en affaire), elle est aussi fortement impliquée dans le développement social et culturel. C’est du moins ce que révèle un sondage en ligne auprès des microbrasseurs du Québec ainsi que sur une analyse exhaustive des sites internet des entreprises.

242 pagesInternational audienc

This paper addresses the possible problem related to using strictly spatial modelling techniques ... more This paper addresses the possible problem related to using strictly spatial modelling techniques for spatial data poole d over time. For these data, such as real estate, the spatial dimension is present, but subject to constraints related to temporal dimension. Three empirical examples are presented to investigate the impact of neglecting the temporal dimension in spatial analysis and to show how such an approach overestimates the pattern of spatial dependence, and overestimates the spatial autoregressive coefficient estimated. If generalized to all other empirical applications, this conclusion may have important considerations if one tries to measure the effect of extrinsic amenities on house prices.

The paper applies an urban growth model in which determinants and indicators of growth (populatio... more The paper applies an urban growth model in which determinants and indicators of growth (population, employment, wages, and human capital) appear on both sides of the equation. The model captures feedback and circular effects grounded in a general equilibrium perspective. The econometric model, a seemingly unrelated regression panel (SUR-P) with city fixed effects, is estimated for a system of 135 Canadian cities. The results reveal a system in which the determinants of growth for cities are largely consistent with the literature but also that the same determinants (city attributes) affect differently growth depending on the indicators selected.

Sustainability, 2021

This paper aims to estimate and decompose the spatial and temporal effect of a flood event occurr... more This paper aims to estimate and decompose the spatial and temporal effect of a flood event occurring in the city of Laval in 1998 using a hedonic pricing model (HPM) based on a difference-in-differences (DID) estimator. The empirical investigation of the impact of flood as a natural disaster must take into account the fact that the negotiation process between buyers and sellers may well occur before the event. It is argued that the evaluation procedure needs to be adjusted to account for this reality because the estimation of the effects may otherwise be biased and isolate other effects. To test this hypothesis, the study focuses on transactions occurring between (1995 and 2001) and within designated floodplains to adequately isolate and decompose the impact of flood. The original database contains information on 252 single-family houses transactions. The results suggest that the estimation of the impact is time dependent, with a measured negative effect appearing several months aft...

Review of Regional Studies, 2016

This paper draws on location theories to statistically identify the relationship between the loca... more This paper draws on location theories to statistically identify the relationship between the location of individual business establishments and the characterization of their local economic environment. Taking a micro-spatial perspective, the paper develops indicators from distance-based measures (DBM) to serve as independent variables in a discrete choice model (DCM). Using a 2006 database of individual business establishments in the Lower-St-Lawrence region—a coherent, nonmetropolitan subsystem of cities in the province of Québec, Canada—we provide an empirical analysis of the determinants of individual establishments’ location decisions in relation to their main economic activity within a random utility model (RUM) framework. The results show that distance to nearby centers, co-location (specialization), and the size of establishments are statistically related to location decisions. However, unlike previous studies, it is also found that discrete location choices of business estab...

Land Use Policy, 2020

This work provides a long-term study of housing development in the Brest region (France). Its mai... more This work provides a long-term study of housing development in the Brest region (France). Its main objective is to test the efficiency of the French laws and of urban planning bylaws to control housing development in the coastal zone. Based on the yearly status of available plots, a panel longitudinal analysis (1968-2009) is developed. It combines survival analyses with spatial-temporal diffusion indices, to assess their joint effects on the urban form evolution considering accessibility, proximity, spatial contiguity, temporal continuity, edge waves versus leapfrog growth, etc. That allows testing hypotheses about the diffusion processes, and the achievement of sustainable urbanism to increase density, promote adjacency and avoid urban sprawl and its detrimental effects on the environment and climate. The main finding is that national laws need land planning to deploy locally and that municipalities and stakeholders still prefer economic development over environmental conservation. That is putting emphasis on a restricted (short term) view of sustainable development.

The Annals of Regional Science, 2019

For mass appraisal in real estate, the hedonic pricing method (HPM) tends to be most commonly use... more For mass appraisal in real estate, the hedonic pricing method (HPM) tends to be most commonly used by academic researchers and the comparable sales approach (CSA) is mostly preferred by professionals. This paper shows how CSA is a constrained version of a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model, which can be implemented by simple matrix calculations. The CSA takes into account information on individual characteristics identifying similar complex goods, spatial proximity reflecting similar spatial amenities and temporal constraints by only selecting past sales. Using US transaction data from Lucas County, Ohio, we compare CSA to a-spatial HPM results, and conduct an out-of-sample exercise to gauge the prediction performance of the two approaches. The findings suggest that CSA is a very useful tool for mass appraisal, especially when the number of independent variables available is limited.

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2018

Hedonic pricing models and price equations have been extensively used to retrieve the implicit pr... more Hedonic pricing models and price equations have been extensively used to retrieve the implicit prices of urban externalities through real estate markets. Many applications have been devoted to investigating the impact of new mass transit systems, such as rail infrastructures. However, the implementation of such infrastructures usually takes some time and markets can react with an anticipation effect that can vary according to the different development phases. Moreover, the impact may be different if it acts as a substitute to existing rapid transit services. This paper focuses on the impact of substituting bus rapid transit (BRT) for light rail transit (LRT) services, taking into account temporal and spatial decomposition of the effect of new urban infrastructures using a spatial difference-indifferences (SDID) estimator based on a repeated sales approach. An empirical investigation is conducted for the case of the implementation of the tramway in Dijon (France) between 2008 and 2012 using apartment transactions occurring between 2001 and 2014. The results indicate that the impact of substituting LRT to BRT is partly anticipated at the construction phase, while the cumulative impact returns a complex pattern where the positive effect is mainly concentrated around stations located in the center of the city.

Botany, 2017

Herbarium specimens can be used to reconstruct spatiotemporal changes in plant morphology caused ... more Herbarium specimens can be used to reconstruct spatiotemporal changes in plant morphology caused by environmental pressures. The reliability of herbarium-derived data requires evaluation, because specimen collection is subject to biases. We used herbarium and field data to investigate the impact of large herbivore browsing on the size of a forb. White trillium (Trillium grandiflorum (Michaux) Salisbury) was studied because the impacts of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus Zimmermann) browsing on this species are well-known. A total of 692 herbarium specimens collected in Quebec (Canada) were used to evaluate leaf area. Leaf area values of herbarium specimens were compared with those of modern (2013, 2014) specimens collected in sites either with >8 deer per square kilometre or without deer. Flowering individuals in modern sites with deer had a significantly lower leaf area than herbarium specimens and modern specimens collected in sites without deer. The distribution of wh...

Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 2015

The article assesses the impact of the Great Recession on 83 Canadian regions, focussing on the u... more The article assesses the impact of the Great Recession on 83 Canadian regions, focussing on the unemployment rate as principal indicator. A dual empirical approach is used: examination of regional unemployment rate variations before, during and after the recession using a labour supply and demand framework; examination of the determinants of regional variations via a spatial econometric model. The findings reveal that Canadian labour markets reacted on the whole as expected to the Great Recession, labour supply adjusting to falling labour demand, thus keeping (rising) unemployment rates in check, although rarely completely. Small, rural regions were often most responsive. The primary determinant of regional variations in unemployment rates was found to be variations in neighbouring regions suggesting highly localised impacts.

Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2016

Relationships between past events, future expectations and present decisions, typically examined ... more Relationships between past events, future expectations and present decisions, typically examined through a temporal prism within applied economics, have been lately moving to the spatial dimension through spatial econometrics. However, violations of the "arrow of time", and thus causality, have been identified in spatial econometric techniques applied to spatiotemporal data consisting of observations each at a specific location and distinct moment in time. A comprehensive review classifies for the first time several redresses to this issue in a currently fragmented literature. This paper puts back the temporal dimension into spatial Hedonic Pricing models through a unique specification of a spatio-temporal model that successfully isolates three distinct effects. First, past sale prices affecting current prices, which exemplifies the "sales comparison" approach. Second, a contemporaneous peer effect that is occurring within the narrow time frame of interaction between market participants prior to a sale. Third, the signals of sellers' expectations are captured in the asking prices of other houses not yet sold, while the buyer is active in the market. This affects the final sale price, due to strategic behavior and anchoring. This is the first instance that effects other than the own asking price can be handled in such models. In "boom" market conditions, this mechanism introduces the expectation of increasing prices to the hedonic price function, potentially contributing to housing market "bubble" propagation.

Proceedings of the 17th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference - Milan, Italy, 2010

Although the hedonic framework can be said to vary substantially from the traditional sales compa... more Although the hedonic framework can be said to vary substantially from the traditional sales comparison approach used in real estate appraisal in that the former rests on much stronger conceptual grounds than the latter while benefitting from large transaction samples that enable statistical inference, both are derived from a similar paradigm with respect to how prices, hence market values, are determined. While the hedonic approach is much more explicit about the determinants of property values and can provide reliable estimates of individual attributesi marginal contribution, it may n unlike the sales comparison approach underestimate the prominent influence that surrounding properties exert on any given nearby housing unit and sale price. In this paper, a simple method for reconciling the two approaches is developed within a rigorous conceptual and methodological framework. It is based on peer effect models, an analytical device developed, and mainly used, by labour economists, which we adapt to the hedonic price equation so as to incorporate nearby propertiesi influences, thereby controlling for non observable neighbourhood effects. The ensuing model accounts for four types of effects, namely endogenous interactions effects (comparable sales influences), exogenous, or neighbourhood, effects, fixed location effects and, finally, spatial autocorrelation effects. This research relies on a database provided by the former Quebec Urban Community (CUQ) Assessment Division on some 15,700 sales of single-family detached houses that took place on the former CUQ territory between January 1990 and December 1996, with prices ranging from 50,000(Can.)to50,000 (Can.) to 50,000(Can.)to250,000. Preliminary findings suggest that integrating peer effects in the hedonic equation allows bringing out the combined impacts of endogenous, exogenous and spatially correlated effects in the house price determination process, with spatial autocorrelation of model residuals being significantly reduced without resorting to a spatial autoregressive procedure. Further investigation is still needed though in order to find out which sub-market delineation should be used to obtain optimal model performances.

Testing the Temporal Stability of Accessibility Value in Residential Hedonic Prices (by Marius Th... more Testing the Temporal Stability of Accessibility Value in Residential Hedonic Prices (by Marius Thériault, François Des Rosiers and Jean Dubé) - ABSTRACT: Bridging the gap between supply-driven and demand-driven accessibility to urban amenities, this paper assesses changes in the valuation of accessibility to labour markets, schools and shopping outlets. Accessibility indexes combine travel time, distribution of activity places and willingness to travel, summarizing opportunities from each neighbourhood. They are inserted simultaneously into a hedonic residential price model pertaining to properties sold in Quebec City in 1986, 1991 and 1996. While isolating the evolution of cross-effects of centrality and accessibility, results suggest that, when buying their homes, households put more emphasis on access to schools than to the labour market, which, in turn, outclasses shopping. Better understanding how accessibility is valued provides guidelines for decision making. Keywords: Hedoni...

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2011

This paper aims at estimating the economic impact of a supply change in the bus transit service i... more This paper aims at estimating the economic impact of a supply change in the bus transit service in a Canadian city of medium size. By using a quasi-experiment approach and a difference-indifferences (DID) estimator, it evaluates the impact of the introduction of a rapid bus transit (RBT) in Quebec City (Canada) through a spatio-temporal analysis of house price variations. The hedonic price model shows that the new service generates an increase in house price ranging from 6.9% to 2.9%, for those properties located close to the service corridor where the population is quite dense and where the service was offered initially. Using sales transaction data and municipal assessment records from 1997, the effect on price is translated into an economic impact for the whole region. The paper shows that the improvement in public transit supply generates, for Quebec City, a significant fiscal impact estimated to 6Mandaplus−valueforpropertiesownerscloseto6 M and a plus-value for properties owners close to 6Mandaplus−valueforpropertiesownerscloseto35 M over 12 years. Finally, the implications of this kind of analysis for urban planning and development are discussed.

Journal of Real Estate Literature

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)The increasing availability of geolocated data opens up ... more (ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)The increasing availability of geolocated data opens up new avenues to spatial analysis, especially in real estate applications. Following the identification of the spatial dependence issue by Cliff and Ord (1968), the number of scientific publications associated with the keywords spatial autocorrelation, spatial analysis, and spatial econometrics has increased since the 1990s and illustrates the enthusiasm for such methods (Exhibit 1).1 While the classical correlation statistic refers to the relations between variables, spatial autocorrelation refers to the correlation between values of different observations for a single variable and is described as the coincidence between observed variables depending on location (Anselin and Bera, 1998; Chasco and Lopez, 2008; LeSage and Pace, 2009). Spatial autocorrelation is a key concept in studies using spatial data: ''No other concept in empirical spatial research is as central to model building as is spatial autocorrelation'' (Getis, 2008, p. 299).Spatial analysis and spatial econometrics have been developed after the pioneer work of Cliff and Ord (1968) and Paelinck et al. (1979) and are a response on how to account for spatial dependence in statistical models. The difference between the two lies in how spatial dimension is accounted for in modeling strategies, especially through the data generating process (DGP) and the way we specify the spatial connections among geographical observations. In spatial econometrics, this connection is formalized through a weights matrix. Some argue that even in an exclusively spatial perspective, the weights matrix is the cornerstone of spatial econometrics, and due to its exogenous specification, also its main weakness (Anselin, 2002; Elhorst, 2010; Bhattacharjee, Castro, and Marques, 2012; Chen, 2012). On the other hand, others claim that too much attention is drawn to defining the good spatial weight matrix specification, which became the biggest myth in spatial econometrics (LeSage and Pace, 2010).In recent years, spatial econometric developments tend to include the temporal dimension to the spatial cross-sectional perspective (Arbia, 2011). Adding the temporal perspective is a critical transition to analyze the dynamic process and its evolution (Anselin, 2002). By including a temporal dependency in spatial analysis, the DGP becomes more complex. Spatiotemporal models are mainly developed through the panel or pseudo-panel perspectives (Elhorst, 2013). Few attempts have been made, outside the spatial panel analysis perspective, to combine spatial and temporal dependencies for spatial data collected over time, while not being repeated, such as in the case of real estate transactions. In such a case, time constraints are often neglected, assuming the simultaneous observation of the data (Dubeand Legros, 2011, 2013b). However, this assumption remains to be verified (Dube, Baumont, and Legros, 2013) and a misinterpretation of the data structure could affect the detection and adequate correction of spatial autocorrelation, since ignoring the temporal dimension suggests an overestimation of spatial relations.To our knowledge, no study has attempted to empirically demonstrate the impact of such omission on the spatial dependence statistics beyond a limited number of case studies or Monte Carlo simulations (e.g., Dubeand Legros, 2014a, 2015). The stakes are high because a poor detection and correction for autocorrelation may bias estimators or affect their variance and therefore invalidate the results obtained from statistical analysis. The presence of spatial autocorrelation in residuals of ordinary least squares (OLS) models leads to increased risk of type 1 error and affects the model goodness-of-fit statistic (R2) (Anselin, 2002; Haining, 2009). ''This is problematic since failing to account for serial and spatial autocorrelation when present causes the OLS estimators to lose their property of efficiency'' (Elhorst, 2001, p. …

GeoComputational Analysis and Modeling of Regional Systems, 2017

Empirical applications using individual spatial data pooled over time usually neglect the fact th... more Empirical applications using individual spatial data pooled over time usually neglect the fact that such data are not only spatially localized: they are also collected over time, i.e. temporally localized. So far, little effort has been devoted to proposing a global way for dealing with spatial data (cross-section) pooled over time, such as real estate transactions, business start-up, crime and so on. However, the spatial effect, in such a context, can be decomposed in two different components: a multidirectional spatial effect (same time period) and a unidirectional spatial effect (previous time period). Based on real estate literature, this chapter presents different spatio-temporal autoregressive (STAR) models and shows how spatial econometrics models can be extended for empirical investigation. Using a Monte Carlo experiment, we underline the effect of neglecting the decomposition of the spatial effect on the bias of the autoregressive coefficients as well as on the interpretation of the marginal effect. An empirical experiment using apartment sales in Paris between 1990 and 2003 supports the global results obtained through the Monte Carlo experiment.

Canadian Journal of Regional Science, 2021

En géographie économique, les déterminants du développement économique favorisent souvent les gra... more En géographie économique, les déterminants du développement économique favorisent souvent les grandes villes et agglomérations. Pour les plus petites villes, plusieurs études ont souligné l’importance des facteurs endogènes dans le développement et, par extension, le rôle de la territorialité. À ce jour, peu d’études statistiques ont formellement démontré, du moins à grande échelle, le lien qui peut exister entre les facteurs classiques de localisation, le profil démographique et le portrait socio-économique sur la présence et l’émergence d’initiatives locales de développement. Cette étude propose donc de contribuer à réduire cet écart. À partir de données autodéclarées sur la localisation d’initiatives locales au Québec, deux modèles statistiques sont estimés : i) un premier axé sur la présence/absence d’initiatives (régression logistique); et ii) un second basé sur le nombre d’initiatives (régression binomiale négative). Dans les deux cas, les résultats suggèrent qu’il existe une ...

Canadian Journal of Regional Science, 2021

Depuis les années 2000, les microbrasseries et leurs produits ont connu un essor impressionnant. ... more Depuis les années 2000, les microbrasseries et leurs produits ont connu un essor impressionnant. Si certains écrits se sont intéressés aux particularités des microbrasseries et de ses consommateurs, encore peu d’efforts ont été voués à explorer l’hypothèse selon laquelle cette industrie représente un vecteur de développement économique, mais aussi social. Bien que la microbrasserie, et plus particulièrement le broue-pub, poursuive un objectif économique indéniable (une rentabilité minimale pour rester en affaire), elle est aussi fortement impliquée dans le développement social et culturel. C’est du moins ce que révèle un sondage en ligne auprès des microbrasseurs du Québec ainsi que sur une analyse exhaustive des sites internet des entreprises.

242 pagesInternational audienc

This paper addresses the possible problem related to using strictly spatial modelling techniques ... more This paper addresses the possible problem related to using strictly spatial modelling techniques for spatial data poole d over time. For these data, such as real estate, the spatial dimension is present, but subject to constraints related to temporal dimension. Three empirical examples are presented to investigate the impact of neglecting the temporal dimension in spatial analysis and to show how such an approach overestimates the pattern of spatial dependence, and overestimates the spatial autoregressive coefficient estimated. If generalized to all other empirical applications, this conclusion may have important considerations if one tries to measure the effect of extrinsic amenities on house prices.

The paper applies an urban growth model in which determinants and indicators of growth (populatio... more The paper applies an urban growth model in which determinants and indicators of growth (population, employment, wages, and human capital) appear on both sides of the equation. The model captures feedback and circular effects grounded in a general equilibrium perspective. The econometric model, a seemingly unrelated regression panel (SUR-P) with city fixed effects, is estimated for a system of 135 Canadian cities. The results reveal a system in which the determinants of growth for cities are largely consistent with the literature but also that the same determinants (city attributes) affect differently growth depending on the indicators selected.

Sustainability, 2021

This paper aims to estimate and decompose the spatial and temporal effect of a flood event occurr... more This paper aims to estimate and decompose the spatial and temporal effect of a flood event occurring in the city of Laval in 1998 using a hedonic pricing model (HPM) based on a difference-in-differences (DID) estimator. The empirical investigation of the impact of flood as a natural disaster must take into account the fact that the negotiation process between buyers and sellers may well occur before the event. It is argued that the evaluation procedure needs to be adjusted to account for this reality because the estimation of the effects may otherwise be biased and isolate other effects. To test this hypothesis, the study focuses on transactions occurring between (1995 and 2001) and within designated floodplains to adequately isolate and decompose the impact of flood. The original database contains information on 252 single-family houses transactions. The results suggest that the estimation of the impact is time dependent, with a measured negative effect appearing several months aft...

Review of Regional Studies, 2016

This paper draws on location theories to statistically identify the relationship between the loca... more This paper draws on location theories to statistically identify the relationship between the location of individual business establishments and the characterization of their local economic environment. Taking a micro-spatial perspective, the paper develops indicators from distance-based measures (DBM) to serve as independent variables in a discrete choice model (DCM). Using a 2006 database of individual business establishments in the Lower-St-Lawrence region—a coherent, nonmetropolitan subsystem of cities in the province of Québec, Canada—we provide an empirical analysis of the determinants of individual establishments’ location decisions in relation to their main economic activity within a random utility model (RUM) framework. The results show that distance to nearby centers, co-location (specialization), and the size of establishments are statistically related to location decisions. However, unlike previous studies, it is also found that discrete location choices of business estab...

Land Use Policy, 2020

This work provides a long-term study of housing development in the Brest region (France). Its mai... more This work provides a long-term study of housing development in the Brest region (France). Its main objective is to test the efficiency of the French laws and of urban planning bylaws to control housing development in the coastal zone. Based on the yearly status of available plots, a panel longitudinal analysis (1968-2009) is developed. It combines survival analyses with spatial-temporal diffusion indices, to assess their joint effects on the urban form evolution considering accessibility, proximity, spatial contiguity, temporal continuity, edge waves versus leapfrog growth, etc. That allows testing hypotheses about the diffusion processes, and the achievement of sustainable urbanism to increase density, promote adjacency and avoid urban sprawl and its detrimental effects on the environment and climate. The main finding is that national laws need land planning to deploy locally and that municipalities and stakeholders still prefer economic development over environmental conservation. That is putting emphasis on a restricted (short term) view of sustainable development.

The Annals of Regional Science, 2019

For mass appraisal in real estate, the hedonic pricing method (HPM) tends to be most commonly use... more For mass appraisal in real estate, the hedonic pricing method (HPM) tends to be most commonly used by academic researchers and the comparable sales approach (CSA) is mostly preferred by professionals. This paper shows how CSA is a constrained version of a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model, which can be implemented by simple matrix calculations. The CSA takes into account information on individual characteristics identifying similar complex goods, spatial proximity reflecting similar spatial amenities and temporal constraints by only selecting past sales. Using US transaction data from Lucas County, Ohio, we compare CSA to a-spatial HPM results, and conduct an out-of-sample exercise to gauge the prediction performance of the two approaches. The findings suggest that CSA is a very useful tool for mass appraisal, especially when the number of independent variables available is limited.

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2018

Hedonic pricing models and price equations have been extensively used to retrieve the implicit pr... more Hedonic pricing models and price equations have been extensively used to retrieve the implicit prices of urban externalities through real estate markets. Many applications have been devoted to investigating the impact of new mass transit systems, such as rail infrastructures. However, the implementation of such infrastructures usually takes some time and markets can react with an anticipation effect that can vary according to the different development phases. Moreover, the impact may be different if it acts as a substitute to existing rapid transit services. This paper focuses on the impact of substituting bus rapid transit (BRT) for light rail transit (LRT) services, taking into account temporal and spatial decomposition of the effect of new urban infrastructures using a spatial difference-indifferences (SDID) estimator based on a repeated sales approach. An empirical investigation is conducted for the case of the implementation of the tramway in Dijon (France) between 2008 and 2012 using apartment transactions occurring between 2001 and 2014. The results indicate that the impact of substituting LRT to BRT is partly anticipated at the construction phase, while the cumulative impact returns a complex pattern where the positive effect is mainly concentrated around stations located in the center of the city.

Botany, 2017

Herbarium specimens can be used to reconstruct spatiotemporal changes in plant morphology caused ... more Herbarium specimens can be used to reconstruct spatiotemporal changes in plant morphology caused by environmental pressures. The reliability of herbarium-derived data requires evaluation, because specimen collection is subject to biases. We used herbarium and field data to investigate the impact of large herbivore browsing on the size of a forb. White trillium (Trillium grandiflorum (Michaux) Salisbury) was studied because the impacts of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus Zimmermann) browsing on this species are well-known. A total of 692 herbarium specimens collected in Quebec (Canada) were used to evaluate leaf area. Leaf area values of herbarium specimens were compared with those of modern (2013, 2014) specimens collected in sites either with >8 deer per square kilometre or without deer. Flowering individuals in modern sites with deer had a significantly lower leaf area than herbarium specimens and modern specimens collected in sites without deer. The distribution of wh...

Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 2015

The article assesses the impact of the Great Recession on 83 Canadian regions, focussing on the u... more The article assesses the impact of the Great Recession on 83 Canadian regions, focussing on the unemployment rate as principal indicator. A dual empirical approach is used: examination of regional unemployment rate variations before, during and after the recession using a labour supply and demand framework; examination of the determinants of regional variations via a spatial econometric model. The findings reveal that Canadian labour markets reacted on the whole as expected to the Great Recession, labour supply adjusting to falling labour demand, thus keeping (rising) unemployment rates in check, although rarely completely. Small, rural regions were often most responsive. The primary determinant of regional variations in unemployment rates was found to be variations in neighbouring regions suggesting highly localised impacts.

Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2016

Relationships between past events, future expectations and present decisions, typically examined ... more Relationships between past events, future expectations and present decisions, typically examined through a temporal prism within applied economics, have been lately moving to the spatial dimension through spatial econometrics. However, violations of the "arrow of time", and thus causality, have been identified in spatial econometric techniques applied to spatiotemporal data consisting of observations each at a specific location and distinct moment in time. A comprehensive review classifies for the first time several redresses to this issue in a currently fragmented literature. This paper puts back the temporal dimension into spatial Hedonic Pricing models through a unique specification of a spatio-temporal model that successfully isolates three distinct effects. First, past sale prices affecting current prices, which exemplifies the "sales comparison" approach. Second, a contemporaneous peer effect that is occurring within the narrow time frame of interaction between market participants prior to a sale. Third, the signals of sellers' expectations are captured in the asking prices of other houses not yet sold, while the buyer is active in the market. This affects the final sale price, due to strategic behavior and anchoring. This is the first instance that effects other than the own asking price can be handled in such models. In "boom" market conditions, this mechanism introduces the expectation of increasing prices to the hedonic price function, potentially contributing to housing market "bubble" propagation.

Proceedings of the 17th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference - Milan, Italy, 2010

Although the hedonic framework can be said to vary substantially from the traditional sales compa... more Although the hedonic framework can be said to vary substantially from the traditional sales comparison approach used in real estate appraisal in that the former rests on much stronger conceptual grounds than the latter while benefitting from large transaction samples that enable statistical inference, both are derived from a similar paradigm with respect to how prices, hence market values, are determined. While the hedonic approach is much more explicit about the determinants of property values and can provide reliable estimates of individual attributesi marginal contribution, it may n unlike the sales comparison approach underestimate the prominent influence that surrounding properties exert on any given nearby housing unit and sale price. In this paper, a simple method for reconciling the two approaches is developed within a rigorous conceptual and methodological framework. It is based on peer effect models, an analytical device developed, and mainly used, by labour economists, which we adapt to the hedonic price equation so as to incorporate nearby propertiesi influences, thereby controlling for non observable neighbourhood effects. The ensuing model accounts for four types of effects, namely endogenous interactions effects (comparable sales influences), exogenous, or neighbourhood, effects, fixed location effects and, finally, spatial autocorrelation effects. This research relies on a database provided by the former Quebec Urban Community (CUQ) Assessment Division on some 15,700 sales of single-family detached houses that took place on the former CUQ territory between January 1990 and December 1996, with prices ranging from 50,000(Can.)to50,000 (Can.) to 50,000(Can.)to250,000. Preliminary findings suggest that integrating peer effects in the hedonic equation allows bringing out the combined impacts of endogenous, exogenous and spatially correlated effects in the house price determination process, with spatial autocorrelation of model residuals being significantly reduced without resorting to a spatial autoregressive procedure. Further investigation is still needed though in order to find out which sub-market delineation should be used to obtain optimal model performances.

Testing the Temporal Stability of Accessibility Value in Residential Hedonic Prices (by Marius Th... more Testing the Temporal Stability of Accessibility Value in Residential Hedonic Prices (by Marius Thériault, François Des Rosiers and Jean Dubé) - ABSTRACT: Bridging the gap between supply-driven and demand-driven accessibility to urban amenities, this paper assesses changes in the valuation of accessibility to labour markets, schools and shopping outlets. Accessibility indexes combine travel time, distribution of activity places and willingness to travel, summarizing opportunities from each neighbourhood. They are inserted simultaneously into a hedonic residential price model pertaining to properties sold in Quebec City in 1986, 1991 and 1996. While isolating the evolution of cross-effects of centrality and accessibility, results suggest that, when buying their homes, households put more emphasis on access to schools than to the labour market, which, in turn, outclasses shopping. Better understanding how accessibility is valued provides guidelines for decision making. Keywords: Hedoni...

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2011

This paper aims at estimating the economic impact of a supply change in the bus transit service i... more This paper aims at estimating the economic impact of a supply change in the bus transit service in a Canadian city of medium size. By using a quasi-experiment approach and a difference-indifferences (DID) estimator, it evaluates the impact of the introduction of a rapid bus transit (RBT) in Quebec City (Canada) through a spatio-temporal analysis of house price variations. The hedonic price model shows that the new service generates an increase in house price ranging from 6.9% to 2.9%, for those properties located close to the service corridor where the population is quite dense and where the service was offered initially. Using sales transaction data and municipal assessment records from 1997, the effect on price is translated into an economic impact for the whole region. The paper shows that the improvement in public transit supply generates, for Quebec City, a significant fiscal impact estimated to 6Mandaplus−valueforpropertiesownerscloseto6 M and a plus-value for properties owners close to 6Mandaplus−valueforpropertiesownerscloseto35 M over 12 years. Finally, the implications of this kind of analysis for urban planning and development are discussed.