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Papers by Daniel S Gressang

Small wars & insurgencies, Sep 1, 2000

In the President's National Security Strategy, terrorism is presented as one of the most pres... more In the President's National Security Strategy, terrorism is presented as one of the most pressing and disturbing threats to both the interests and national security of the United States. The threat of terrorist attack against Americans abroad is quite obviously at odds with the administration's stated goal of creating and maintaining a peaceful and secure international environment. But terrorism is not seen simply as a threat, it is a growing threat. The possibility that terrorists would consider using weapons of mass destruction (WMD) chemical, biological, or nuclear devices against America and American interests has emerged in US policy as a leading concern. To guard against these threats, the United States has aggressively pursued a policy of deterrence and coordinated response, designed to minimize the severity of terrorist actions while also fostering a spirit of international cooperation against terrorism. The intent, quite clearly, is to create, through unilateral and multilateral actions, an environment which is not conducive to terrorist activities.

The Journal of Conflict Studies, Sep 9, 1994

International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, Sep 20, 2022

Intelligence and national security, Jan 12, 2015

to Soviet fears of espionage and internal subversion, Checkist themes that still linger in curren... more to Soviet fears of espionage and internal subversion, Checkist themes that still linger in current Russian political discourse. Intelligence activities not only gathered information about the opponent’s hostility, but were often taken as prima facie evidence by the opponent as confirmation of their competitor’s hostile intent. These finely crafted and lively essays thus raise several profound issues about the craft of intelligence and the impact of intelligence on international conflict. The authors make clear that intelligence scholars and practitioners are deeply embedded in their historical moment, which creates a set of intellectual, bureaucratic and ideological blinders that make it difficult for them to step outside their contemporary context to entertain alternative hypotheses or even to see ‘the big picture.’ Strategic demands also shape institutional forms and routines that in turn influence intelligence analysis. For instance, only late in the Cold War did policymakers come to realize that intelligence actually shed light not only on the intentions of the opponent, but on the sometimes irrational fears that motivated the opponent’s behavior, fears that could be mitigated by moderating one’s own initiatives. In other words, our theories of intelligence, not just strategic demands and politics, shapes our practice of intelligence, and those theories are often tied to a specific strategic setting. Ultimately, the essays suggest that when it comes to tracing the relationship among intelligence, policy and outcomes, it is difficult to separate causes from effects.

International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, Jun 14, 2021

Abstract: There are various dimensions of the COVID-19 warning problem. For example, how did the ... more Abstract: There are various dimensions of the COVID-19 warning problem. For example, how did the scientific, intelligence, and strategic studies communities issue accurate diffuse warnings of the growing risk of a global pandemic? This raises the possibility that the warnings issued might have been misleading because they focus on the disease’s details and not on the second- and third-order effects that would significantly impede national and global responses to coronavirus. The pandemic outbreak also led to the acceleration of ongoing work in the pharmaceutical industry, producing “game-changing” medical advances that might soon be replicated in other fields. It may be time to develop a specialized organization—a warning “skunkworks”—whose sole mission is to identify and assess the impact of novel developments in both domestic and international settings.

Terrorism and Political Violence, Sep 1, 2001

One of the more debated aspects of the study of terrorism over the last few years has been the li... more One of the more debated aspects of the study of terrorism over the last few years has been the likelihood of terrorists using weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The immediacy of the question has been brought home by a rash of terrorist spectaculars, pushing as never before the possibility of WMD use by non-state actors into the spotlight. The February 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center in New York City forced Americans to realize committed adversaries could strike in the United States as easily as they could abroad. Aum Shinrikyo’s sarin gas attack on the Tokyo subway in March 1995 represnted the first large-scale use of mass-casualty weapons by a non-state actor for the express purpose of causing large numbers of deaths and injuries. Only weeks later, the bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City underscored for Americans the potential for large-scale attacks by domestic groups or individuals. The attacks on Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia and on the United States Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania likewise demonstrated the sophistication, coordination and dedication expected of today’s terrorists. These attacks make the question of potential WMD use by terrorists an important and timely one, especially when considered in light of the explosion in information availability and growing concerns over proliferation and material control issues. The possible level of physical destruction, injury and loss of life from these weapons is so great in and of itself that the potential for terrorist acquisition and use warrants serious consideration. Jessica Stern, Walter Laqueur, and others have presented chilling scenarios for terrorist WMD use, directing our attention to the unparalleled devastation which could result. Such ‘what if’ visions provide a valuable service in directing inquiry both to the critical necessity of effective prevention and deterrence and to the attendant consequences should those efforts fail. By the same token, the specter of WMD use, or the credible threat of use, conjures deeply held fears and insecurities. With the exception of

International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence

Terrorism and Political Violence, 2001

International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 2021

Journal of Conflict Studies, Sep 9, 1994

Intelligence and National Security, 2015

DRAFT for the 2015 ISA Conference, New Orleans, LA

Small Wars & Insurgencies, 2000

Small wars & insurgencies, Sep 1, 2000

In the President's National Security Strategy, terrorism is presented as one of the most pres... more In the President's National Security Strategy, terrorism is presented as one of the most pressing and disturbing threats to both the interests and national security of the United States. The threat of terrorist attack against Americans abroad is quite obviously at odds with the administration's stated goal of creating and maintaining a peaceful and secure international environment. But terrorism is not seen simply as a threat, it is a growing threat. The possibility that terrorists would consider using weapons of mass destruction (WMD) chemical, biological, or nuclear devices against America and American interests has emerged in US policy as a leading concern. To guard against these threats, the United States has aggressively pursued a policy of deterrence and coordinated response, designed to minimize the severity of terrorist actions while also fostering a spirit of international cooperation against terrorism. The intent, quite clearly, is to create, through unilateral and multilateral actions, an environment which is not conducive to terrorist activities.

The Journal of Conflict Studies, Sep 9, 1994

International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, Sep 20, 2022

Intelligence and national security, Jan 12, 2015

to Soviet fears of espionage and internal subversion, Checkist themes that still linger in curren... more to Soviet fears of espionage and internal subversion, Checkist themes that still linger in current Russian political discourse. Intelligence activities not only gathered information about the opponent’s hostility, but were often taken as prima facie evidence by the opponent as confirmation of their competitor’s hostile intent. These finely crafted and lively essays thus raise several profound issues about the craft of intelligence and the impact of intelligence on international conflict. The authors make clear that intelligence scholars and practitioners are deeply embedded in their historical moment, which creates a set of intellectual, bureaucratic and ideological blinders that make it difficult for them to step outside their contemporary context to entertain alternative hypotheses or even to see ‘the big picture.’ Strategic demands also shape institutional forms and routines that in turn influence intelligence analysis. For instance, only late in the Cold War did policymakers come to realize that intelligence actually shed light not only on the intentions of the opponent, but on the sometimes irrational fears that motivated the opponent’s behavior, fears that could be mitigated by moderating one’s own initiatives. In other words, our theories of intelligence, not just strategic demands and politics, shapes our practice of intelligence, and those theories are often tied to a specific strategic setting. Ultimately, the essays suggest that when it comes to tracing the relationship among intelligence, policy and outcomes, it is difficult to separate causes from effects.

International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, Jun 14, 2021

Abstract: There are various dimensions of the COVID-19 warning problem. For example, how did the ... more Abstract: There are various dimensions of the COVID-19 warning problem. For example, how did the scientific, intelligence, and strategic studies communities issue accurate diffuse warnings of the growing risk of a global pandemic? This raises the possibility that the warnings issued might have been misleading because they focus on the disease’s details and not on the second- and third-order effects that would significantly impede national and global responses to coronavirus. The pandemic outbreak also led to the acceleration of ongoing work in the pharmaceutical industry, producing “game-changing” medical advances that might soon be replicated in other fields. It may be time to develop a specialized organization—a warning “skunkworks”—whose sole mission is to identify and assess the impact of novel developments in both domestic and international settings.

Terrorism and Political Violence, Sep 1, 2001

One of the more debated aspects of the study of terrorism over the last few years has been the li... more One of the more debated aspects of the study of terrorism over the last few years has been the likelihood of terrorists using weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The immediacy of the question has been brought home by a rash of terrorist spectaculars, pushing as never before the possibility of WMD use by non-state actors into the spotlight. The February 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center in New York City forced Americans to realize committed adversaries could strike in the United States as easily as they could abroad. Aum Shinrikyo’s sarin gas attack on the Tokyo subway in March 1995 represnted the first large-scale use of mass-casualty weapons by a non-state actor for the express purpose of causing large numbers of deaths and injuries. Only weeks later, the bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City underscored for Americans the potential for large-scale attacks by domestic groups or individuals. The attacks on Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia and on the United States Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania likewise demonstrated the sophistication, coordination and dedication expected of today’s terrorists. These attacks make the question of potential WMD use by terrorists an important and timely one, especially when considered in light of the explosion in information availability and growing concerns over proliferation and material control issues. The possible level of physical destruction, injury and loss of life from these weapons is so great in and of itself that the potential for terrorist acquisition and use warrants serious consideration. Jessica Stern, Walter Laqueur, and others have presented chilling scenarios for terrorist WMD use, directing our attention to the unparalleled devastation which could result. Such ‘what if’ visions provide a valuable service in directing inquiry both to the critical necessity of effective prevention and deterrence and to the attendant consequences should those efforts fail. By the same token, the specter of WMD use, or the credible threat of use, conjures deeply held fears and insecurities. With the exception of

International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence

Terrorism and Political Violence, 2001

International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 2021

Journal of Conflict Studies, Sep 9, 1994

Intelligence and National Security, 2015

DRAFT for the 2015 ISA Conference, New Orleans, LA

Small Wars & Insurgencies, 2000