Mathew Barlow | University of Massachusetts, Lowell (original) (raw)

Papers by Mathew Barlow

ABSTRACT El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual variability, with... more ABSTRACT El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual variability, with global impacts on weather and climate that have seasonal predictability. Research on the link between interannual ENSO variability and the leading mode of intraseasonal variability, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), has focused mainly on the role of MJO initiating or terminating ENSO. We use observational analysis and modeling to show that the MJO has an important simultaneous link to ENSO: strong MJO activity significantly weakens the atmospheric branch of ENSO. For weak MJO conditions relative to strong MJO conditions, the average magnitude of ENSO-associated tropical precipitation anomalies increases by 63%, and the strength of hemispheric teleconnections increases by 58%. Since the MJO has predictability beyond three weeks, the relationships shown here suggest that there may be subseasonal predictability of the ENSO teleconnections to continental circulation and precipitation.

Journal of Geophysical Research, 2004

1] MODIS-based leaf area index (LAI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are used t... more 1] MODIS-based leaf area index (LAI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are used to examine detailed information regarding actual growing season and total annual production for various regions. Overall, MODIS LAI has larger variability and demonstrates more information regarding the evolution and structure of the seasonal vegetation characteristics. In contrast, the NDVI saturates around 0.7 and tends to overestimate the growing season in regions where it is already long. Next, a climatic impact index (CII) is derived to provide additional information regarding the potential sensitivity of vegetation to changes in climatic variables by accounting for the length of growing season. By normalizing the growth rate to the biome-average growth rate, this index can identify fractional loss of annual production, as opposed to the absolute loss which may be strongly weighted by the overall growth rate for different ecosystems. Our index provides a quantitative framework for assessing the importance of the length of the growing season in determining climatic vulnerability. In the last part of the paper, we use the long time series AVHRR products as a substitute for the MODIS products and test the temporal characteristics of the CII. Major drought events are well-captured by the CII, suggesting potential use as a monitoring and evaluation tool. Furthermore, the strong positive correlation between the CII and the vegetation condition index (VCI) suggests that the CII can quantitatively identify the effects of climatic variability upon vegetation activity. (2004), Climate-related vegetation characteristics derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) leaf area index and normalized difference vegetation index,

Geophysical Research Letters, 2007

The boreal winter response to tropical convection in the eastern Indian Ocean is investigated by ... more The boreal winter response to tropical convection in the eastern Indian Ocean is investigated by increasing the mid-level diabatic heating for that region in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.1. The response is quite similar to the analytic Gill solution to steady heating, with a pair of Rossby wave packets poleward and to the west of the heating, extending into mid-latitudes, and a Kelvin response to the east of the heating. Changes to tropical convection in the eastern Indian Ocean are an important component of several important modes of atmospheric variability, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation, some El Niño-Southern Oscillation events, and the Indian Ocean Dipole. The simulated response has considerable similarities to observational aspects of these modes, both in terms of the Gill-like circulation patterns and changes to precipitation over Southwest Asia, demonstrating the central importance of the Indian Ocean convection in determining the regional response.

Proceedings of The National Academy of Sciences, 2008

Since 1980, the number of undernourished people in eastern and southern Africa has more than doub... more Since 1980, the number of undernourished people in eastern and southern Africa has more than doubled. Rural development stalled and rural poverty expanded during the 1990s. Population growth remains very high, and declining per-capita agricultural capacity retards progress toward Millennium Development goals. Analyses of in situ station data and satellite observations of precipitation have identified another problematic trend: main growing-season rainfall receipts have diminished by Ϸ15% in food-insecure countries clustered along the western rim of the Indian Ocean. Occurring during the main growing seasons in poor countries dependent on rain-fed agriculture, these declines are societally dangerous. Will they persist or intensify? Tracing moisture deficits upstream to an anthropogenically warming Indian Ocean leads us to conclude that further rainfall declines are likely. We present analyses suggesting that warming in the central Indian Ocean disrupts onshore moisture transports, reducing continental rainfall. Thus, late 20th-century anthropogenic Indian Ocean warming has probably already produced societally dangerous climate change by creating drought and social disruption in some of the world's most fragile food economies. We quantify the potential impacts of the observed precipitation and agricultural capacity trends by modeling "millions of undernourished people" as a function of rainfall, population, cultivated area, seed, and fertilizer use. Persistence of current tendencies may result in a 50% increase in undernourished people by 2030. On the other hand, modest increases in per-capita agricultural productivity could more than offset the observed precipitation declines. Investing in agricultural development can help mitigate climate change while decreasing rural poverty and vulnerability.

Monthly Weather Review, 2005

Analysis of daily observations shows that wintertime (November-April) precipitation over Southwes... more Analysis of daily observations shows that wintertime (November-April) precipitation over Southwest Asia is modulated by Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) activity in the eastern Indian Ocean, with strength comparable to the interannual variability. Daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for 1979-2001 is used to provide a long and consistent, but indirect, estimate of precipitation, and daily records from 13 stations in Afghanistan reporting at least 50% of the time for 1979-85 are used to provide direct, but shorter and irregularly reported, precipitation data. In the station data, for the average of all available stations, there is a 23% increase in daily precipitation relative to the mean when the phase of the MJO is negative (suppressed tropical convection in the eastern Indian Ocean), and a corresponding decrease when the MJO is positive. The distribution of extremes is also affected such that the 10 wettest days all occur during the negative MJO phase. The longer record of OLR data indicates that the effect of the MJO is quite consistent from year to year, with the anomalies averaged over Southwest Asia more negative (indicating more rain) for the negative phase of the MJO for each of the 22 yr in the record. Additionally, in 9 of the 22 yr the average influence of the MJO is larger than the interannual variability (e.g., the relationship results in anomalously wet periods even in dry years and vice versa).

International Journal of Climatology, 2003

Severe drought is a notable feature of the hydrology of central Southwest (CSW) Asia. Although st... more Severe drought is a notable feature of the hydrology of central Southwest (CSW) Asia. Although studies have linked the region's interannual precipitation variability to remote forcings that include East Asia jet stream variability and western Pacific tropical convection, atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) forced by observed sea-surface temperatures demonstrate little skill in simulating interannual precipitation variability in this region. Here, statistical methods of correcting systematic errors in GCM simulations of CSW Asia precipitation are investigated. Canonical correlation analysis is used to identify model fields related to observed precipitation anomaly patterns. These relationships are then used to predict observed precipitation anomalies. This approach is applied to the ECHAM 4.5 GCM using regional precipitation, upper-level winds and western Pacific tropical precipitation as predictors of observed CSW Asia precipitation anomalies. The statistical corrections improve the GCM precipitation simulations, resulting in modest, but statistically significant, cross-validated skill in simulating CSW Asia precipitation anomalies. Applying the procedure to hindcasts with persisted sea-surface temperatures gives lower, but statistically significant, precipitation correlations in the region along the Hindu Kush mountain range. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society

Journal of Climate, 2002

Severe drought over the past three years (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001), in combination with the effect... more Severe drought over the past three years (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001), in combination with the effects of protracted sociopolitical disruption, has led to widespread famine affecting over 60 million people in central and southwest (CSW) Asia. Here both a regional and a large-scale mode of climate variability are documented that, together, suggest a possible forcing mechanism for the drought. During the boreal cold season, an inverse relationship exists between precipitation anomalies in the eastern Indian Ocean and CSW Asia. Suppression of precipitation over CSW Asia is consistent with interaction between local synoptic storms and wave energy generated by enhanced tropical rainfall in the eastern Indian Ocean. This regional out-of-phase precipitation relationship is related to large-scale climate variability through a subset of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events characterized by an enhanced signal in the warm pool region of the western Pacific Ocean. Both the prolonged duration of the 1998-2001 cold phase ENSO (La Niña) event and unusually warm ocean waters in the western Pacific appear to contribute to the severity of the drought.

Journal of Climate, 2005

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the closely related Arctic Oscillation (AO) strongly aff... more The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the closely related Arctic Oscillation (AO) strongly affect Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperatures with patterns reported similar to the global warming trend. The NAO and AO were in a positive trend for much of the 1970s and 1980s with historic highs in the early 1990s, and it has been suggested that they contributed significantly to the global warming signal. The trends in standard indices of the AO, NAO, and NH average surface temperature for December-February, 1950, and the associated patterns in surface temperature anomalies are examined. Also analyzed are factors previously identified as relating to the NAO, AO, and their positive trend: North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), Indo-Pacific warm pool SSTs, stratospheric circulation, and Eurasian snow cover.

Geophysical Research Letters, 2010

1] Winter 2009-2010 made headlines for extreme cold and snow in most of the major population cent... more 1] Winter 2009-2010 made headlines for extreme cold and snow in most of the major population centers of the industrialized countries of the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The major teleconnection patterns of the Northern Hemisphere, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) were of moderate to strong amplitude, making both potentially key players during the winter of 2009-2010. The dominant NH winter circulation pattern can be shown to have originated with a two-way stratosphere-troposphere interaction forced by Eurasian land surface and lower tropospheric atmospheric conditions during autumn. This cycle occurred twice in relatively quick succession contributing to the record low values of the AO observed. Using a skillful winter temperature forecast, it is shown that the AO explained a greater variance of the observed temperature pattern across the extratropical landmasses of the NH than did ENSO.

Journal of Climate, 2007

A diagnostic of Northern Hemisphere winter extratropical stratosphere-troposphere interactions is... more A diagnostic of Northern Hemisphere winter extratropical stratosphere-troposphere interactions is presented to facilitate the study of stratosphere-troposphere coupling and to examine what might influence these interactions. The diagnostic is a multivariate EOF combining lower-stratospheric planetary wave activity flux in December with sea level pressure in January. This EOF analysis captures a strong linkage between the vertical component of lower-stratospheric wave activity over Eurasia and the subsequent development of hemisphere-wide surface circulation anomalies, which are strongly related to the Arctic Oscillation. Wintertime stratosphere-troposphere events picked out by this diagnostic often have a precursor in autumn: years with large October snow extent over Eurasia feature strong wintertime upwardpropagating planetary wave pulses, a weaker wintertime polar vortex, and high geopotential heights in the wintertime polar troposphere. This provides further evidence for predictability of wintertime circulation based on autumnal snow extent over Eurasia. These results also raise the question of how the atmosphere will respond to a modified snow cover in a changing climate.