Raul Chamorro | Universidad Nacional de Colombia (National University of Colombia) (original) (raw)

Papers by Raul Chamorro

Research paper thumbnail of Deuda pública y sostenibilidad fiscal en Colombia: análisis mediante funciones de reacción fiscal*1

Ensayos de Economía, 32 (61), 2022

En este artículo se evalúa la sostenibilidad fi scal en Colombia mediante la utilización de tres ... more En este artículo se evalúa la sostenibilidad fi scal en Colombia mediante la utilización de tres metodologías diferentes: pruebas de estacionariedad; estimación de funciones de reacción fi scal-lineal y no lineal-por mínimos cuadrados en dos etapas y por el método generalizado de momentos; y cálculo del indicador sintético de sostenibilidad fi scal propuesto por Mackiewicz-Łyziak y Łyziak, (2019). En el cálculo de este indicador se incorpora el efecto de la tasa de interés de la deuda, la cual se considera como una variable endógena, así como se evalúa la respuesta de la tasa de interés frente a variaciones en el nivel de deuda. Los resultados, aunque muestran el cumplimiento de algunas de las condiciones de sostenibilidad para Colombia hasta el año 2019, también resaltan el riesgo que representa el alto nivel de endeudamiento que alcanzó el país en 2020, producto de la reciente crisis de la pandemia del Covid-19.

Research paper thumbnail of The Composition of Government Spending and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: The Case of Latin America

PSN: Development Strategies (Topic), 2012

This paper aims to identify the effects of the two economic components of government spending, na... more This paper aims to identify the effects of the two economic components of government spending, namely, capital and current spending, on the per capita economic growth rate in a set of Latin American countries over the period 1975-2000. Within the neoclassical framework (Solow, 1956; Swan, 1956), government spending, and public policy in general, has no role in determining the long-run economic growth rate, since this is determined by the exogenous population growth and technological progress rates. On the other hand, in some endogenous growth models developed mainly since the early 1990s, such as Easterly (1990), Barro (1990), Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992, and 2004), Cashin (1995), Bajo-Rubio (2001), and Milbourne et al. (2003), fiscal policy affects the long-term growth rate through decisions on either taxes or expenditures.The empirical literature tends to reject the predictions of the neoclassical model, in the sense that according to this model, fiscal policy cannot affect grow...

Research paper thumbnail of Política fiscal subnacional y ciclos económicos regionales: análisis para el caso de los departamentos en Colombia, 2000-2016

Raúl Alberto Chamorro-Narváez Andrés Camilo Santos-Ospina Andrés Felipe Urrea-Bermúdez Resumen En... more Raúl Alberto Chamorro-Narváez Andrés Camilo Santos-Ospina Andrés Felipe Urrea-Bermúdez Resumen En este documento se analiza la sensibilidad de un conjunto de variables fiscales con respecto a la brecha del PIB departamental, medida como la diferencia entre el crecimiento observado y su crecimiento de largo plazo. Por medio de un modelo de datos panel con efectos fijos y temporales se encontró que tanto los ingresos totales como las transferencias de las gobernaciones tendieron a ser procíclicas frente a la brecha del PIB durante el periodo 2000-2016, en contravía de la expectativa empírica. Por su parte, el recaudo propio y los gastos totales evidenciaron aciclicidad. Estos resultados sugieren limitaciones de la política fiscal departamental en Colombia para atenuar los efectos derivados de los ciclos económicos; aspecto deseable para lograr una estabilidad en la provisión de bienes y servicios públicos a su cargo.

Research paper thumbnail of Total Factor Productivity in The Colombian Manufacturing Industry

The purpose of the paper is to measure and to analyze total factor productivity -- TFP -- growth ... more The purpose of the paper is to measure and to analyze total factor productivity -- TFP -- growth in the Colombian manufacturing industry over the period 1985-2007. During this period, specifically from the early 90s, Colombia applied several policy actions aiming at increasing trade openness of its economy. Thus, it is possible to analyze performance of several subsectors of the Colombian manufacturing industry before and after trade liberalization. TFP growth is measured by using Harberger’s Two-Deflator Method, whose main characteristic is that although it is a robust method, is not difficult to use, and the amount of data needed for calculations is easier to handle with, compared with traditional methods. The results of the paper show that manufacturing productivity was higher after the trade liberalization process was largely consolidated.

Research paper thumbnail of A Functional Classification of Government Spending and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries

The objective of this article is to determine the effects of different components of government s... more The objective of this article is to determine the effects of different components of government spending on the per capita economic growth rate in a set of Latin American countries over the period 1975-2000. Within the neoclassical framework (Solow, 1956; Swan, 1956), government spending, and public policy in general, has no role in determining the long-run economic growth rate, since this is determined by the exogenous population growth and technological progress rates. On the other hand, in some endogenous growth models developed mainly since the early 1990s, such as Easterly (1990), Barro (1990), Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992, and 2004), Cashin (1995), Bajo-Rubio (2001), and Milbourne et al. (2003), fiscal policy affects the long-term growth rate through decisions on either taxes or expenditures. The empirical literature tends to reject the prediction of the neoclassical model of no role of fiscal policy in determining the growth rate in the long term. However, results are far from conclusive. As long as theoretical models about the influence of public spending on growth is concerned, some of them such as Barro (1990), Cashin (1995), Bajo-Rubio (2000), and Milbourne et al. (2003) predict that a positive effect is expected to be found in countries where the size of government is smaller than a certain threshold, and a negative one in countries where the size of government is bigger than that. Therefore, since generally speaking, with few exceptions, one finds very large public sectors only in developed countries (DCs), studies evaluating the impact of public expenditure on growth should analyze DCs and less developed countries (LDCs) separately. Within the recent growth literature framework, the study uses a generalized method of moments, as suggested by Arellano and Bond (1991), to obtain consistent and efficient estimates for a dynamic model, such as an economic growth model. Some literature finds growth promoting effects of government spending on education and health, which have been associated with spending on human capital. Nevertheless, these effects were not found in this study. The findings suggest that the only component of government spending significantly correlated with growth is that on transport and communications. Therefore, it is possible to conclude that the composition of government spending does matter for growth in the set of Latin American countries considered here.

Research paper thumbnail of Microfinance in Bogota, Colombia as a Development Strategy

This paper aims to describe and analyze a financial strategy designed and implemented in Bogota, ... more This paper aims to describe and analyze a financial strategy designed and implemented in Bogota, Colombia, in 2002, which considers microcredit as an important tool to provide poorer people credit services. Microcredit is just one of the different components of a broad concept, microfinance, which was developed as an answer to the lack of financial services for the poorer people from formal financial system. Microfinance includes the provision of financial services, such as deposits, loans and insurance to poor families who do not have access to resources of the formal financial institutions. The loans are used to invest in micro-enterprises, as well as for investing in health and education, improve housing or deal with family emergencies. However, the strategy of microfinance is not limited to provide financial services only, but also provides training in management of money and strengthens aspects like leadership, confidence, self-esteem, education and micro-management. Regarding the kind of enterprises that are the target of microfinance in Bogota, Colombia, it is important to mention that micro, small and medium sized enterprises (Mipymes thereafter) involve a big number of workers in the city. According to the Business Chamber of Bogota, there were 202,966 formally constituted enterprises in 2004, from which 201,146 were Mipymes (99%) and concentrated approximately 70% of total formal employment. Particularly regarding Mipymes, 86% were micro, 11% small and 3% medium sized businesses. Mipymes are engaged mainly in trading and the repair of all kinds of motor vehicles (35.4%), followed by real estate activities (13.2%), manufacturing (12.3%); transport, storage and communications (11.6%); and hotels and restaurants (11.3%). Behavior of firms in Bogota evidences the importance of micro-enterprises and small enterprises in employment generation. However, these types of enterprises face various problems regarding their creation and their operation; among them, the main ones are associated with their financing and management. Faced with this situation, the Treasury Secretary of Bogota implemented a strategy of financial lines in April 2002 to help them, which is based on a scheme of credit throughout the financial system. The main objectives of the financial lines are: i) To facilitate access to credit to micro and small entrepreneurs, ii) to improve the levels of income and employment in the city, and iii) to improve the quality of life of the micro and small entrepreneurs in Bogota. The financial lines designed to help micro, small and medium-sized businesses managed by the Treasury Secretary of Bogota have meant a significant shift in attention to formal business of the city. This financing program for Mipymes was designed with the aim of solving the cyclical problem arisen by the banking crisis of 1999, which led financial institutions to be prepared to accept a lower risk and to raise the interest rates, which discriminated the Mipyme sector of bank financing in a recession and unemployment scenario.

Research paper thumbnail of Total Factor Productivity in the Bogota Manufacturing Industry, 1985-2005

The objective of this article is to measure and to analyze total factor productivity-TFPgrowth in... more The objective of this article is to measure and to analyze total factor productivity-TFPgrowth in the Bogota manufacturing industry over the period 1985-2005. From the early 90s Colombia applied several policy actions aiming at increasing trade openness of its economy. Taking this into account, this article analyzes performance of several subsectors of the Bogota manufacturing industry before and after trade liberalization. TFP growth is measured by using Harberger's Two-Deflator Method, which although it is a robust method, is not difficult to use, and the amount of data needed for calculations is easier to handle with, compared with traditional methods. The results of the paper show most of the subsectors analyzed had positive TFP growth rates during the period 1990-2005, which corresponds to a period of more openness of the Colombian economy, compared to eight out of the twenty subsectors with negative TFP growth rates in the period pre-trade liberalization, 1985-1990. On this basis, the results suggest a possible positive effect of trade liberalization of the Colombian economy on TFP of manufacturing industry of Bogota.

Research paper thumbnail of Crecimiento económico y política fiscal: una revisión crítica de la literatura

Ensayos de Economía, 2017

En este documento se discuten diferentes aspectos sobre la relación entre crecimiento económico y... more En este documento se discuten diferentes aspectos sobre la relación entre crecimiento económico y política fiscal. Desde un punto de vista teórico, se parte del modelo propuesto por Barro (1990). Luego se introducen algunos modelos desarrollados posteriormente, los cuales están en línea con los principales resultados de Barro. Por otra parte, existen muchos estudios empíricos que dan soporte al marco de los modelos de crecimiento endógeno, por cuanto aportan evidencia de que el gasto público afecta la tasa de crecimiento económico de largo plazo. Una corriente de la literatura sobre este tema resalta que los trabajos empíricos deben desagregar el gasto público. Además, es necesario incluir explícitamente la restricción presupuestaria del gobierno, dado que sus decisiones sobre gastos e ingresos no son independientes. Finalmente, cuando se consideran varios países, la técnica de datos panel parece ser mejor que otras a fin de evaluar los efectos de la política fiscal en el crecimient...

Research paper thumbnail of Crecimiento económico y política fiscal: una revisión crítica de la literatura

En este documento se discuten diferentes aspectos sobre la relación entre crecimiento económico y... more En este documento se discuten diferentes aspectos sobre la relación entre crecimiento económico
y política fiscal. Desde un punto de vista teórico, se parte del modelo propuesto por Barro (1990).
Luego se introducen algunos modelos desarrollados posteriormente, los cuales están en línea
con los principales resultados de Barro. Por otra parte, existen muchos estudios empíricos que
dan soporte al marco de los modelos de crecimiento endógeno, por cuanto aportan evidencia de
que el gasto público afecta la tasa de crecimiento económico de largo plazo. Una corriente de la
literatura sobre este tema resalta que los trabajos empíricos deben desagregar el gasto público.
Además, es necesario incluir explícitamente la restricción presupuestaria del gobierno, dado que
sus decisiones sobre gastos e ingresos no son independientes. Finalmente, cuando se consideran
varios países, la técnica de datos panel parece ser mejor que otras a fin de evaluar los efectos de la
política fiscal en el crecimiento.

Abstract
This study discusses different issues about the relationship between economic growth and fiscal
policy. From a theoretical point of view, we start with the model developed by Barro (1990). Then,
some later models are introduced, which are in line with the main results in Barro. On the other
hand, several empirical studies support the endogenous growth models framework, since government spending has been found to affect long-run economic growth rates. A number of studies on
this issue stress that empirical work needs to disaggregate public expenditure. It is also important to include explicitly the government budget constraint given that government decisions on
spending and revenues are not independent of each other. Finally, whenever several countries are
considered, panel data technique seems to be better than others in order to evaluate the effects of
fiscal policy on growth.

Research paper thumbnail of Deuda pública y sostenibilidad fiscal en Colombia: análisis mediante funciones de reacción fiscal*1

Ensayos de Economía, 32 (61), 2022

En este artículo se evalúa la sostenibilidad fi scal en Colombia mediante la utilización de tres ... more En este artículo se evalúa la sostenibilidad fi scal en Colombia mediante la utilización de tres metodologías diferentes: pruebas de estacionariedad; estimación de funciones de reacción fi scal-lineal y no lineal-por mínimos cuadrados en dos etapas y por el método generalizado de momentos; y cálculo del indicador sintético de sostenibilidad fi scal propuesto por Mackiewicz-Łyziak y Łyziak, (2019). En el cálculo de este indicador se incorpora el efecto de la tasa de interés de la deuda, la cual se considera como una variable endógena, así como se evalúa la respuesta de la tasa de interés frente a variaciones en el nivel de deuda. Los resultados, aunque muestran el cumplimiento de algunas de las condiciones de sostenibilidad para Colombia hasta el año 2019, también resaltan el riesgo que representa el alto nivel de endeudamiento que alcanzó el país en 2020, producto de la reciente crisis de la pandemia del Covid-19.

Research paper thumbnail of The Composition of Government Spending and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: The Case of Latin America

PSN: Development Strategies (Topic), 2012

This paper aims to identify the effects of the two economic components of government spending, na... more This paper aims to identify the effects of the two economic components of government spending, namely, capital and current spending, on the per capita economic growth rate in a set of Latin American countries over the period 1975-2000. Within the neoclassical framework (Solow, 1956; Swan, 1956), government spending, and public policy in general, has no role in determining the long-run economic growth rate, since this is determined by the exogenous population growth and technological progress rates. On the other hand, in some endogenous growth models developed mainly since the early 1990s, such as Easterly (1990), Barro (1990), Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992, and 2004), Cashin (1995), Bajo-Rubio (2001), and Milbourne et al. (2003), fiscal policy affects the long-term growth rate through decisions on either taxes or expenditures.The empirical literature tends to reject the predictions of the neoclassical model, in the sense that according to this model, fiscal policy cannot affect grow...

Research paper thumbnail of Política fiscal subnacional y ciclos económicos regionales: análisis para el caso de los departamentos en Colombia, 2000-2016

Raúl Alberto Chamorro-Narváez Andrés Camilo Santos-Ospina Andrés Felipe Urrea-Bermúdez Resumen En... more Raúl Alberto Chamorro-Narváez Andrés Camilo Santos-Ospina Andrés Felipe Urrea-Bermúdez Resumen En este documento se analiza la sensibilidad de un conjunto de variables fiscales con respecto a la brecha del PIB departamental, medida como la diferencia entre el crecimiento observado y su crecimiento de largo plazo. Por medio de un modelo de datos panel con efectos fijos y temporales se encontró que tanto los ingresos totales como las transferencias de las gobernaciones tendieron a ser procíclicas frente a la brecha del PIB durante el periodo 2000-2016, en contravía de la expectativa empírica. Por su parte, el recaudo propio y los gastos totales evidenciaron aciclicidad. Estos resultados sugieren limitaciones de la política fiscal departamental en Colombia para atenuar los efectos derivados de los ciclos económicos; aspecto deseable para lograr una estabilidad en la provisión de bienes y servicios públicos a su cargo.

Research paper thumbnail of Total Factor Productivity in The Colombian Manufacturing Industry

The purpose of the paper is to measure and to analyze total factor productivity -- TFP -- growth ... more The purpose of the paper is to measure and to analyze total factor productivity -- TFP -- growth in the Colombian manufacturing industry over the period 1985-2007. During this period, specifically from the early 90s, Colombia applied several policy actions aiming at increasing trade openness of its economy. Thus, it is possible to analyze performance of several subsectors of the Colombian manufacturing industry before and after trade liberalization. TFP growth is measured by using Harberger’s Two-Deflator Method, whose main characteristic is that although it is a robust method, is not difficult to use, and the amount of data needed for calculations is easier to handle with, compared with traditional methods. The results of the paper show that manufacturing productivity was higher after the trade liberalization process was largely consolidated.

Research paper thumbnail of A Functional Classification of Government Spending and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries

The objective of this article is to determine the effects of different components of government s... more The objective of this article is to determine the effects of different components of government spending on the per capita economic growth rate in a set of Latin American countries over the period 1975-2000. Within the neoclassical framework (Solow, 1956; Swan, 1956), government spending, and public policy in general, has no role in determining the long-run economic growth rate, since this is determined by the exogenous population growth and technological progress rates. On the other hand, in some endogenous growth models developed mainly since the early 1990s, such as Easterly (1990), Barro (1990), Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992, and 2004), Cashin (1995), Bajo-Rubio (2001), and Milbourne et al. (2003), fiscal policy affects the long-term growth rate through decisions on either taxes or expenditures. The empirical literature tends to reject the prediction of the neoclassical model of no role of fiscal policy in determining the growth rate in the long term. However, results are far from conclusive. As long as theoretical models about the influence of public spending on growth is concerned, some of them such as Barro (1990), Cashin (1995), Bajo-Rubio (2000), and Milbourne et al. (2003) predict that a positive effect is expected to be found in countries where the size of government is smaller than a certain threshold, and a negative one in countries where the size of government is bigger than that. Therefore, since generally speaking, with few exceptions, one finds very large public sectors only in developed countries (DCs), studies evaluating the impact of public expenditure on growth should analyze DCs and less developed countries (LDCs) separately. Within the recent growth literature framework, the study uses a generalized method of moments, as suggested by Arellano and Bond (1991), to obtain consistent and efficient estimates for a dynamic model, such as an economic growth model. Some literature finds growth promoting effects of government spending on education and health, which have been associated with spending on human capital. Nevertheless, these effects were not found in this study. The findings suggest that the only component of government spending significantly correlated with growth is that on transport and communications. Therefore, it is possible to conclude that the composition of government spending does matter for growth in the set of Latin American countries considered here.

Research paper thumbnail of Microfinance in Bogota, Colombia as a Development Strategy

This paper aims to describe and analyze a financial strategy designed and implemented in Bogota, ... more This paper aims to describe and analyze a financial strategy designed and implemented in Bogota, Colombia, in 2002, which considers microcredit as an important tool to provide poorer people credit services. Microcredit is just one of the different components of a broad concept, microfinance, which was developed as an answer to the lack of financial services for the poorer people from formal financial system. Microfinance includes the provision of financial services, such as deposits, loans and insurance to poor families who do not have access to resources of the formal financial institutions. The loans are used to invest in micro-enterprises, as well as for investing in health and education, improve housing or deal with family emergencies. However, the strategy of microfinance is not limited to provide financial services only, but also provides training in management of money and strengthens aspects like leadership, confidence, self-esteem, education and micro-management. Regarding the kind of enterprises that are the target of microfinance in Bogota, Colombia, it is important to mention that micro, small and medium sized enterprises (Mipymes thereafter) involve a big number of workers in the city. According to the Business Chamber of Bogota, there were 202,966 formally constituted enterprises in 2004, from which 201,146 were Mipymes (99%) and concentrated approximately 70% of total formal employment. Particularly regarding Mipymes, 86% were micro, 11% small and 3% medium sized businesses. Mipymes are engaged mainly in trading and the repair of all kinds of motor vehicles (35.4%), followed by real estate activities (13.2%), manufacturing (12.3%); transport, storage and communications (11.6%); and hotels and restaurants (11.3%). Behavior of firms in Bogota evidences the importance of micro-enterprises and small enterprises in employment generation. However, these types of enterprises face various problems regarding their creation and their operation; among them, the main ones are associated with their financing and management. Faced with this situation, the Treasury Secretary of Bogota implemented a strategy of financial lines in April 2002 to help them, which is based on a scheme of credit throughout the financial system. The main objectives of the financial lines are: i) To facilitate access to credit to micro and small entrepreneurs, ii) to improve the levels of income and employment in the city, and iii) to improve the quality of life of the micro and small entrepreneurs in Bogota. The financial lines designed to help micro, small and medium-sized businesses managed by the Treasury Secretary of Bogota have meant a significant shift in attention to formal business of the city. This financing program for Mipymes was designed with the aim of solving the cyclical problem arisen by the banking crisis of 1999, which led financial institutions to be prepared to accept a lower risk and to raise the interest rates, which discriminated the Mipyme sector of bank financing in a recession and unemployment scenario.

Research paper thumbnail of Total Factor Productivity in the Bogota Manufacturing Industry, 1985-2005

The objective of this article is to measure and to analyze total factor productivity-TFPgrowth in... more The objective of this article is to measure and to analyze total factor productivity-TFPgrowth in the Bogota manufacturing industry over the period 1985-2005. From the early 90s Colombia applied several policy actions aiming at increasing trade openness of its economy. Taking this into account, this article analyzes performance of several subsectors of the Bogota manufacturing industry before and after trade liberalization. TFP growth is measured by using Harberger's Two-Deflator Method, which although it is a robust method, is not difficult to use, and the amount of data needed for calculations is easier to handle with, compared with traditional methods. The results of the paper show most of the subsectors analyzed had positive TFP growth rates during the period 1990-2005, which corresponds to a period of more openness of the Colombian economy, compared to eight out of the twenty subsectors with negative TFP growth rates in the period pre-trade liberalization, 1985-1990. On this basis, the results suggest a possible positive effect of trade liberalization of the Colombian economy on TFP of manufacturing industry of Bogota.

Research paper thumbnail of Crecimiento económico y política fiscal: una revisión crítica de la literatura

Ensayos de Economía, 2017

En este documento se discuten diferentes aspectos sobre la relación entre crecimiento económico y... more En este documento se discuten diferentes aspectos sobre la relación entre crecimiento económico y política fiscal. Desde un punto de vista teórico, se parte del modelo propuesto por Barro (1990). Luego se introducen algunos modelos desarrollados posteriormente, los cuales están en línea con los principales resultados de Barro. Por otra parte, existen muchos estudios empíricos que dan soporte al marco de los modelos de crecimiento endógeno, por cuanto aportan evidencia de que el gasto público afecta la tasa de crecimiento económico de largo plazo. Una corriente de la literatura sobre este tema resalta que los trabajos empíricos deben desagregar el gasto público. Además, es necesario incluir explícitamente la restricción presupuestaria del gobierno, dado que sus decisiones sobre gastos e ingresos no son independientes. Finalmente, cuando se consideran varios países, la técnica de datos panel parece ser mejor que otras a fin de evaluar los efectos de la política fiscal en el crecimient...

Research paper thumbnail of Crecimiento económico y política fiscal: una revisión crítica de la literatura

En este documento se discuten diferentes aspectos sobre la relación entre crecimiento económico y... more En este documento se discuten diferentes aspectos sobre la relación entre crecimiento económico
y política fiscal. Desde un punto de vista teórico, se parte del modelo propuesto por Barro (1990).
Luego se introducen algunos modelos desarrollados posteriormente, los cuales están en línea
con los principales resultados de Barro. Por otra parte, existen muchos estudios empíricos que
dan soporte al marco de los modelos de crecimiento endógeno, por cuanto aportan evidencia de
que el gasto público afecta la tasa de crecimiento económico de largo plazo. Una corriente de la
literatura sobre este tema resalta que los trabajos empíricos deben desagregar el gasto público.
Además, es necesario incluir explícitamente la restricción presupuestaria del gobierno, dado que
sus decisiones sobre gastos e ingresos no son independientes. Finalmente, cuando se consideran
varios países, la técnica de datos panel parece ser mejor que otras a fin de evaluar los efectos de la
política fiscal en el crecimiento.

Abstract
This study discusses different issues about the relationship between economic growth and fiscal
policy. From a theoretical point of view, we start with the model developed by Barro (1990). Then,
some later models are introduced, which are in line with the main results in Barro. On the other
hand, several empirical studies support the endogenous growth models framework, since government spending has been found to affect long-run economic growth rates. A number of studies on
this issue stress that empirical work needs to disaggregate public expenditure. It is also important to include explicitly the government budget constraint given that government decisions on
spending and revenues are not independent of each other. Finally, whenever several countries are
considered, panel data technique seems to be better than others in order to evaluate the effects of
fiscal policy on growth.