Wolfgang Maennig | University of Hamburg (original) (raw)
Papers by Wolfgang Maennig
SSRN Electronic Journal
This study demonstrates that psycho-economic determinants are significant in the awarding of yell... more This study demonstrates that psycho-economic determinants are significant in the awarding of yellow cards in a soccer match. This is the first multivariate analysis of the number of yellow cards given to a team in a match, and the study concludes that the characteristics of the referee, a home match effect, a derby match effect, and whether a team wins are crucial. The absolute point difference in relation to the current opponent can play a role as well. This is also the first work to analyze the probability of a team's player collecting his fifth yellow card. We find that the probability is not determined by the characteristics of the referee but by whether a team wins, by whether a team plays at its home pitch and by the quality of the teams participating in the subsequent matches. Soccer players tend to collect their fifth yellow card and their suspension by choice when playing against a better opponent in the next match. For teams in the lower range, the opponent after next plays a role as well.
We provide the first systematic documentation and analysis of a generation gap in direct democrac... more We provide the first systematic documentation and analysis of a generation gap in direct democracy outcomes across a wide range of topics using postelection survey data covering more than 300 Swiss referenda and four decades. We find that older voters are more likely to resist reform projects, particularly those that are associated with the political left. We separate age and cohort effects without imposing functional form constraints using a panel rank regression approach. The aging effect on political orientation is robust for controlling for arbitrary cohort effects and appears to be driven by expected utility maximization and not by habituation-induced status-quo bias. Our results suggest that population aging raises the hurdle for investment-like reform projects with positive net present values, long-run benefits and short-run costs in direct polls.
The Palgrave Handbook on the Economics of Manipulation in Sport
With the revelation of the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) corruption sc... more With the revelation of the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) corruption scandal in May 2015, the integrity and thus the general configuration of (international) sports organizations were publicly contested. The principle of moral behavior in international sports organizations (Arnold 1994) was clearly violated, and the high (self) esteem of sports suffered. The accusations of corruption regarding the Men's FIFA World Cups 1 (BBC 2015) as well as the bribing scandals during the Olympic bidding processes 2 stained the integrity of sports. Sport values, also condensed in the concept of "Olympic spirit" (or "Olympism" (Adi 2014)), are based on the philosophy that best performances (should) lead to best results and rewards. Sport serves as a symbol for respect, self-discipline, health, and deserved
Social Science Research Network, 2018
With the revelation of the Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) corruption sc... more With the revelation of the Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) corruption scandal in May 2015, the integrity and thus the general configuration of (international) sports organizations were publicly contested. The principle of moral behavior in international sports organizations (Arnold 1994) was clearly violated, and the high (self) esteem of sports suffered. The accusations of corruption regarding the Men’s FIFA World Cups (BBC 2015) as well as the bribing scandals during the Olympic bidding processes stained the integrity of sports. Sports values, also condensed in the concept of “Olympic spirit” (or “Olympism” (Adi 2014)), are based on the philosophy that best performances (should) lead to best results and rewards. This article deals with the concept of (good) governance in sports organizations, existing challenges and issues that have yet to be resolved. It lays out ideas for enhanced good governance through the example of mega-events.
This study uses the example of the 2006 soccer World Cup in Germany to examine whether any system... more This study uses the example of the 2006 soccer World Cup in Germany to examine whether any systematic relationships exist between infrastructure investments on the one hand and investments in the respective stadium on the other. Particular attention is paid to an examination of whether the relative infrastructure costs in the case of newly-built stadia differ from those relating to stadia that have been reconstructed or extended. Such systematic relationships, or “rules of thumb”, could be used in the future to simplify the prediction of the expected volume of necessary infrastructure measures for major sporting events (other soccer World Cups, the Olympic Games, etc.) on the basis of the investment required for the sports venues. Our study makes use of a cluster and discriminance analysis and concludes that such general rules cannot be derived from the 2006 World Cup in Germany.
This contribution attempts a delimitation of the concept of corruption in sport and gives an over... more This contribution attempts a delimitation of the concept of corruption in sport and gives an overview of topical instances. It is thereby demonstrated why the definition of corruption in sport is especially problematic. The causes of the corruption and their social costs are analysed. The anti-corruption measures of the Amateur International Boxing Association (AIBA) and the German Football Association (DFB) are described. These are based on two fundamentally different approaches and can be regarded as representative of many anti-corruption measures in sport
We investigate whether soccer players collect their fifth yellow card and their suspension by cho... more We investigate whether soccer players collect their fifth yellow card and their suspension by choice. Using data for the German Bundesliga for the seasons 13/14 to 16/17, we show that the quality of the players own team, the quality of the teams participating in the next matches, and whether a team wins or not increase the probability of a player collecting his fifth yellow card.
Olympic Games may have impacts on income and employment in the host city, but no ex post study ha... more Olympic Games may have impacts on income and employment in the host city, but no ex post study has been carried out for European Olympic host cities to date. The present study closes this gap using the 1972 Munich Olympic Games. The data period examined in this study allows for analysis of long-term effects. In addition, the methodology avoids overestimating the significance of the effects. Finally, we report results for all possible combinations of preand post-Olympic periods. The results: income in Olympic regions grew significantly faster than in other German regions. In contrast, no employment effects were identified. JEL Classification Codes: L83, O18, R11, R53, R58
Von der Internationalisierung der Produktion und des Handels profitieren auch der Seeverkehr und ... more Von der Internationalisierung der Produktion und des Handels profitieren auch der Seeverkehr und die Seehaefen. Wurden 1985 etwa 3,3 Milliarden Tonnen ueber See gehandelt, so waren es 1996 schon fast 5 Milliarden Tonnen. Seehaefen stellen als Uebergangsort zwischen Binnen- und (Ueber)Seeverkehrstraeger Schnittstellen/Knotenpunkte im internationalen Verkehr von Waren dar und sind damit ein zentraler Teil internationaler Transportketten. Gezeigt wird im Beitrag, welchen Herausforderungen der einzelne Seehafen im verschaerften Wettbewerb um Ladung und Transportketten gegenuebersteht und welche Moeglichkeiten er hat, seine Attraktivitaet zu steigern. Hierzu werden die wesentlichen Funktionen und Aufgaben von Seehaefen dargestellt. Ferner erfolgt eine kritische Diskussion der fuer den Seehafenwettbewerb bestimmenden Determinanten, deren Relevanz im abschliessenden Teil des Beitrags empirisch anhand einer Befragung der beiden wichtigsten Akteursgruppen auf dem Markt fuer Seehafenleistunge...
In the rapidly growing body of scholarship on sport mega-events it has become commonplace to cont... more In the rapidly growing body of scholarship on sport mega-events it has become commonplace to contend that the intangible (or immeasurable) elements of these events, such as the positive emotions they can evoke among spectators, are often among their most important consequences. This paper reflects on one particular aspect of sport mega-events’ intangibles – the feel-good effect, or sense of communal wellbeing that can be elicited under certain circumstances - and the political and socio-cultural processes that are contingent with this. The paper focuses on the 2006 FIFA World Cup which was hosted in Germany, and the 2010 FIFA finals, staged in South Africa. For Germany, since the hopes for significant positive effects on tourism, income, and employment that were prominent before the World Cup were (as in the case of most other such events) not realised, the feel-good effect seemed to be the largest and most obvious effect of the 2006 World Cup. Similarly, in the case of South Africa...
Das Verkehrssystem beeinflusst die Effizienz der Verkehrsinfrastruktur wesentlich. Verkehrsstauun... more Das Verkehrssystem beeinflusst die Effizienz der Verkehrsinfrastruktur wesentlich. Verkehrsstauungen mindern nicht nur die Aufenthalts- und Wohnqualitaet in den Staedten, sondern fuehren im Wirtschaftsverkehr zu erheblichen Produktivitaetsverlusten in Form von Staukosten. Fuer Hamburg wurden diese Kosten auf ca. 111 Millionen DM fuer den Lkw-Nahverkehr von Speditionen geschaetzt. Strategien zur Sicherung der wirtschaftlichen Leistungsfaehigkeit der Staedte duerfen sich nicht auf punktuelle Massnahmen beschraenken. Sie sollen vielmehr in einem verkehrlichen Gesamtkonzept stehen, das auch den Individualverkehr einbezieht. Zur Loesung der staedtischen Stauproblematik bieten sich insbesondere Konzepte des "Road Pricing" an, die ueber eine Verdraengung des weniger zeitsensitiven Individualverkehrs die effiziente Nutzung der Strassen gewaehrleisten und zu einer Verminderung der Staukosten fuer den Wirtschaftsverkehr beitragen koennen. Ergaenzend zu einem uebergeordneten System v...
25th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference
Purpose - Most studies on real estate focus on one of the housing sectors, i.e. single family hom... more Purpose - Most studies on real estate focus on one of the housing sectors, i.e. single family homes or apartments. On average, single family houses have higher prices compared to apartments. This work looks at a relative price trend between the two asset groups, as well as its dynamics. In order to disclose information about the sources of potential changes in preferences the gap is decomposed.Design/methodology/approach - Using data form Berlin, Germany this contribution disentangles the mark-up between SFH and APP by the usual housing characteristics, amenities and socioeconomic variables. Following the majority of the hedonic literature in real estate research the analysis starts with a semi-log hedonic model. Different spatial economic approaches verify the results. Finally the Oaxaca decomposition technique is applied to distinguish between the different determinants of the observed gap.Findings – The hedonic regression results confirm earlier studies for most explanatory variables. It is shown that preferences between SFH and APP change over time, mostly driven by a higher preferences for amenities for APP and higher evaluation of the larger floorspace of SFH. Originality/value –The approach allows to estimate price indexes for real estate assets which are not dependent on the general price level or inflation. The novelty lies in filling a literature gap regarding the explanation of the price gap between single family homes and apartments.
Journal of Regional Science
To assess the likely effects of population ageing on the outcomes of direct democracy, we analyze... more To assess the likely effects of population ageing on the outcomes of direct democracy, we analyze the effect of age on voting decisions in public referenda. To this end, we provide the first quantitative review of the literature and a case study of the Stuttgart 21 referendum on one of the largest infrastructure projects in Germany. The evidence suggests that intergenerational conflicts arising from population ageing will likely be limited to areas in which the net present value differs particularly strongly across generations, such as education and health spending, green energy, and major transport projects. In such instances, however, the effect can be quantitatively relevant, raising the question of whether, as population ageing progresses, decisions should be based on social cost-benefit analyses, instead of referenda.
International Handbook on the Economics of Mega Sporting Events, 2012
We investigate at the precinct-level the 2001 stadium referendum for the Allianz-Arena in Munich,... more We investigate at the precinct-level the 2001 stadium referendum for the Allianz-Arena in Munich, where voters had to decide upon a projected site as well as on public subsidies for provision of transport infrastructure. This is the first analysis of a stadium referendum with respect to the spatial dimension outside the U.S. The new arena, which is the home venue of the professional soccer clubs FC Bayern Munchen and TSV 1860 Munchen and also was a major venue during the FIFAWorld Cup 2006 clearly won the approval of a majority of voters in one of the referendums with the largest participation in the history of Munich. However, in proximity of the projected site, residents strongly opposed the project, which reflects in significantly reduced shares of yes-votes. Assuming rationality, we conclude that at city level residents expected an increase in utility from the new arena that justified public expenses. However, our results also point to considerable proximity cost, probably related to the presence of fan crowds and congestion. This finding contradicts the existing evidence on stadium impact from the U.S. There are also major differences in the socio-economic determinants of voting behavior, indicating that the expected net-benefit of proximity to professional sports facilities may vary across sports and countries.
SSRN Electronic Journal
This study demonstrates that psycho-economic determinants are significant in the awarding of yell... more This study demonstrates that psycho-economic determinants are significant in the awarding of yellow cards in a soccer match. This is the first multivariate analysis of the number of yellow cards given to a team in a match, and the study concludes that the characteristics of the referee, a home match effect, a derby match effect, and whether a team wins are crucial. The absolute point difference in relation to the current opponent can play a role as well. This is also the first work to analyze the probability of a team's player collecting his fifth yellow card. We find that the probability is not determined by the characteristics of the referee but by whether a team wins, by whether a team plays at its home pitch and by the quality of the teams participating in the subsequent matches. Soccer players tend to collect their fifth yellow card and their suspension by choice when playing against a better opponent in the next match. For teams in the lower range, the opponent after next plays a role as well.
We provide the first systematic documentation and analysis of a generation gap in direct democrac... more We provide the first systematic documentation and analysis of a generation gap in direct democracy outcomes across a wide range of topics using postelection survey data covering more than 300 Swiss referenda and four decades. We find that older voters are more likely to resist reform projects, particularly those that are associated with the political left. We separate age and cohort effects without imposing functional form constraints using a panel rank regression approach. The aging effect on political orientation is robust for controlling for arbitrary cohort effects and appears to be driven by expected utility maximization and not by habituation-induced status-quo bias. Our results suggest that population aging raises the hurdle for investment-like reform projects with positive net present values, long-run benefits and short-run costs in direct polls.
The Palgrave Handbook on the Economics of Manipulation in Sport
With the revelation of the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) corruption sc... more With the revelation of the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) corruption scandal in May 2015, the integrity and thus the general configuration of (international) sports organizations were publicly contested. The principle of moral behavior in international sports organizations (Arnold 1994) was clearly violated, and the high (self) esteem of sports suffered. The accusations of corruption regarding the Men's FIFA World Cups 1 (BBC 2015) as well as the bribing scandals during the Olympic bidding processes 2 stained the integrity of sports. Sport values, also condensed in the concept of "Olympic spirit" (or "Olympism" (Adi 2014)), are based on the philosophy that best performances (should) lead to best results and rewards. Sport serves as a symbol for respect, self-discipline, health, and deserved
Social Science Research Network, 2018
With the revelation of the Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) corruption sc... more With the revelation of the Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) corruption scandal in May 2015, the integrity and thus the general configuration of (international) sports organizations were publicly contested. The principle of moral behavior in international sports organizations (Arnold 1994) was clearly violated, and the high (self) esteem of sports suffered. The accusations of corruption regarding the Men’s FIFA World Cups (BBC 2015) as well as the bribing scandals during the Olympic bidding processes stained the integrity of sports. Sports values, also condensed in the concept of “Olympic spirit” (or “Olympism” (Adi 2014)), are based on the philosophy that best performances (should) lead to best results and rewards. This article deals with the concept of (good) governance in sports organizations, existing challenges and issues that have yet to be resolved. It lays out ideas for enhanced good governance through the example of mega-events.
This study uses the example of the 2006 soccer World Cup in Germany to examine whether any system... more This study uses the example of the 2006 soccer World Cup in Germany to examine whether any systematic relationships exist between infrastructure investments on the one hand and investments in the respective stadium on the other. Particular attention is paid to an examination of whether the relative infrastructure costs in the case of newly-built stadia differ from those relating to stadia that have been reconstructed or extended. Such systematic relationships, or “rules of thumb”, could be used in the future to simplify the prediction of the expected volume of necessary infrastructure measures for major sporting events (other soccer World Cups, the Olympic Games, etc.) on the basis of the investment required for the sports venues. Our study makes use of a cluster and discriminance analysis and concludes that such general rules cannot be derived from the 2006 World Cup in Germany.
This contribution attempts a delimitation of the concept of corruption in sport and gives an over... more This contribution attempts a delimitation of the concept of corruption in sport and gives an overview of topical instances. It is thereby demonstrated why the definition of corruption in sport is especially problematic. The causes of the corruption and their social costs are analysed. The anti-corruption measures of the Amateur International Boxing Association (AIBA) and the German Football Association (DFB) are described. These are based on two fundamentally different approaches and can be regarded as representative of many anti-corruption measures in sport
We investigate whether soccer players collect their fifth yellow card and their suspension by cho... more We investigate whether soccer players collect their fifth yellow card and their suspension by choice. Using data for the German Bundesliga for the seasons 13/14 to 16/17, we show that the quality of the players own team, the quality of the teams participating in the next matches, and whether a team wins or not increase the probability of a player collecting his fifth yellow card.
Olympic Games may have impacts on income and employment in the host city, but no ex post study ha... more Olympic Games may have impacts on income and employment in the host city, but no ex post study has been carried out for European Olympic host cities to date. The present study closes this gap using the 1972 Munich Olympic Games. The data period examined in this study allows for analysis of long-term effects. In addition, the methodology avoids overestimating the significance of the effects. Finally, we report results for all possible combinations of preand post-Olympic periods. The results: income in Olympic regions grew significantly faster than in other German regions. In contrast, no employment effects were identified. JEL Classification Codes: L83, O18, R11, R53, R58
Von der Internationalisierung der Produktion und des Handels profitieren auch der Seeverkehr und ... more Von der Internationalisierung der Produktion und des Handels profitieren auch der Seeverkehr und die Seehaefen. Wurden 1985 etwa 3,3 Milliarden Tonnen ueber See gehandelt, so waren es 1996 schon fast 5 Milliarden Tonnen. Seehaefen stellen als Uebergangsort zwischen Binnen- und (Ueber)Seeverkehrstraeger Schnittstellen/Knotenpunkte im internationalen Verkehr von Waren dar und sind damit ein zentraler Teil internationaler Transportketten. Gezeigt wird im Beitrag, welchen Herausforderungen der einzelne Seehafen im verschaerften Wettbewerb um Ladung und Transportketten gegenuebersteht und welche Moeglichkeiten er hat, seine Attraktivitaet zu steigern. Hierzu werden die wesentlichen Funktionen und Aufgaben von Seehaefen dargestellt. Ferner erfolgt eine kritische Diskussion der fuer den Seehafenwettbewerb bestimmenden Determinanten, deren Relevanz im abschliessenden Teil des Beitrags empirisch anhand einer Befragung der beiden wichtigsten Akteursgruppen auf dem Markt fuer Seehafenleistunge...
In the rapidly growing body of scholarship on sport mega-events it has become commonplace to cont... more In the rapidly growing body of scholarship on sport mega-events it has become commonplace to contend that the intangible (or immeasurable) elements of these events, such as the positive emotions they can evoke among spectators, are often among their most important consequences. This paper reflects on one particular aspect of sport mega-events’ intangibles – the feel-good effect, or sense of communal wellbeing that can be elicited under certain circumstances - and the political and socio-cultural processes that are contingent with this. The paper focuses on the 2006 FIFA World Cup which was hosted in Germany, and the 2010 FIFA finals, staged in South Africa. For Germany, since the hopes for significant positive effects on tourism, income, and employment that were prominent before the World Cup were (as in the case of most other such events) not realised, the feel-good effect seemed to be the largest and most obvious effect of the 2006 World Cup. Similarly, in the case of South Africa...
Das Verkehrssystem beeinflusst die Effizienz der Verkehrsinfrastruktur wesentlich. Verkehrsstauun... more Das Verkehrssystem beeinflusst die Effizienz der Verkehrsinfrastruktur wesentlich. Verkehrsstauungen mindern nicht nur die Aufenthalts- und Wohnqualitaet in den Staedten, sondern fuehren im Wirtschaftsverkehr zu erheblichen Produktivitaetsverlusten in Form von Staukosten. Fuer Hamburg wurden diese Kosten auf ca. 111 Millionen DM fuer den Lkw-Nahverkehr von Speditionen geschaetzt. Strategien zur Sicherung der wirtschaftlichen Leistungsfaehigkeit der Staedte duerfen sich nicht auf punktuelle Massnahmen beschraenken. Sie sollen vielmehr in einem verkehrlichen Gesamtkonzept stehen, das auch den Individualverkehr einbezieht. Zur Loesung der staedtischen Stauproblematik bieten sich insbesondere Konzepte des "Road Pricing" an, die ueber eine Verdraengung des weniger zeitsensitiven Individualverkehrs die effiziente Nutzung der Strassen gewaehrleisten und zu einer Verminderung der Staukosten fuer den Wirtschaftsverkehr beitragen koennen. Ergaenzend zu einem uebergeordneten System v...
25th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference
Purpose - Most studies on real estate focus on one of the housing sectors, i.e. single family hom... more Purpose - Most studies on real estate focus on one of the housing sectors, i.e. single family homes or apartments. On average, single family houses have higher prices compared to apartments. This work looks at a relative price trend between the two asset groups, as well as its dynamics. In order to disclose information about the sources of potential changes in preferences the gap is decomposed.Design/methodology/approach - Using data form Berlin, Germany this contribution disentangles the mark-up between SFH and APP by the usual housing characteristics, amenities and socioeconomic variables. Following the majority of the hedonic literature in real estate research the analysis starts with a semi-log hedonic model. Different spatial economic approaches verify the results. Finally the Oaxaca decomposition technique is applied to distinguish between the different determinants of the observed gap.Findings – The hedonic regression results confirm earlier studies for most explanatory variables. It is shown that preferences between SFH and APP change over time, mostly driven by a higher preferences for amenities for APP and higher evaluation of the larger floorspace of SFH. Originality/value –The approach allows to estimate price indexes for real estate assets which are not dependent on the general price level or inflation. The novelty lies in filling a literature gap regarding the explanation of the price gap between single family homes and apartments.
Journal of Regional Science
To assess the likely effects of population ageing on the outcomes of direct democracy, we analyze... more To assess the likely effects of population ageing on the outcomes of direct democracy, we analyze the effect of age on voting decisions in public referenda. To this end, we provide the first quantitative review of the literature and a case study of the Stuttgart 21 referendum on one of the largest infrastructure projects in Germany. The evidence suggests that intergenerational conflicts arising from population ageing will likely be limited to areas in which the net present value differs particularly strongly across generations, such as education and health spending, green energy, and major transport projects. In such instances, however, the effect can be quantitatively relevant, raising the question of whether, as population ageing progresses, decisions should be based on social cost-benefit analyses, instead of referenda.
International Handbook on the Economics of Mega Sporting Events, 2012
We investigate at the precinct-level the 2001 stadium referendum for the Allianz-Arena in Munich,... more We investigate at the precinct-level the 2001 stadium referendum for the Allianz-Arena in Munich, where voters had to decide upon a projected site as well as on public subsidies for provision of transport infrastructure. This is the first analysis of a stadium referendum with respect to the spatial dimension outside the U.S. The new arena, which is the home venue of the professional soccer clubs FC Bayern Munchen and TSV 1860 Munchen and also was a major venue during the FIFAWorld Cup 2006 clearly won the approval of a majority of voters in one of the referendums with the largest participation in the history of Munich. However, in proximity of the projected site, residents strongly opposed the project, which reflects in significantly reduced shares of yes-votes. Assuming rationality, we conclude that at city level residents expected an increase in utility from the new arena that justified public expenses. However, our results also point to considerable proximity cost, probably related to the presence of fan crowds and congestion. This finding contradicts the existing evidence on stadium impact from the U.S. There are also major differences in the socio-economic determinants of voting behavior, indicating that the expected net-benefit of proximity to professional sports facilities may vary across sports and countries.