Mohammed Shuaibu | University of Abuja, Nigeria (original) (raw)
Papers by Mohammed Shuaibu
Economic and Financial Review, Sep 1, 2011
This paper examined the determinants of international reserves holding in Nigeria, where a huge a... more This paper examined the determinants of international reserves holding in Nigeria, where a huge amount of foreign reserves is necessary to ensure good macroeconomic policy and international credit worthiness. Adopting a dynamic modeling approach combined with the Mizon-Richard encompassing test, both precautionary and mercantilist motives explain holding of foreign reserves in Nigeria. Specifically, the current account variability and past levels of external reserves drive reserve holding in the short run. In the long run, the former and the money supply are significant determinants. Therefore, enhancement of exports through support for quality and competitiveness of non-oil exports are key to reserves management.
Energy & Environment
Investigating the current and future dynamics of energy consumption in modern economies such as t... more Investigating the current and future dynamics of energy consumption in modern economies such as the UK is crucial. This paper predicts the UK's energy consumption using data spanning January 1995 to March 2022 by comparing and evaluating the forecast performance of machine learning, dynamic regression, time series and combination modelling techniques. The analysis reveals that the seasonal ARIMA and TBATS hybrid models yield the lowest forecast errors in predicting the UK's electricity and gas consumption. Although the combination forecasts performed poorly relative to other models, machine learning techniques such as neural network and support vector regression produced better results compared to the dynamic regression models, whereas the seasonal hybrid model performed better than the machine learning and time series models. The results indicate that the UK's electricity consumption would either stabilise or decline over the forecast horizon, suggesting that it will ta...
Nigeria continues its recovery from the 2016 recession, sustaining an estimated 2 percent growthr... more Nigeria continues its recovery from the 2016 recession, sustaining an estimated 2 percent growthrate in 2019. The collapse of global oil prices during 2014–16, combined with lower domestic oil production, led to a sudden slowdown in economic activity. Nigeria’s annual real GDP growth rate, which averaged 7 percent from 2000 to 2014, fell to 2.7 percent in 2015 and to -1.6 percent in 2016. Growth rebounded to 0.8 percent in 2017, 1.9 percent in 2018, and then plateaued at 2 percent in the first half of 2019, where it is expected to remain for the rest of the year. Services, particularly telecoms, remained the main driver of growth in 2019, although trade started contracting amidst increasing use of policy measures aimed at import substitution. Agricultural growth picked up slightly but remains affected by insurgency in the Northeast region and ongoing farmer-herder conflicts. Industrial performance was mixed: growth in the oil sector remained stable, but manufacturing production slow...
Nigeria's emergence from recession remains slow: real GDP grew by 1.9 percent in 2018. While ... more Nigeria's emergence from recession remains slow: real GDP grew by 1.9 percent in 2018. While this was above the 0.8 percent growth of 2017, it was below the population growth rate, government projections and pre-recession levels. The oil and gas sector reverted to contraction from the second quarter of the year and the non-oil economy was thus the main driver of growth in 2018. While agriculture slowed down significantly due to conflict and weather events, whose effects were not counteracted by direct interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), non-oil, non-agricultural growth, which remained negative up to the third quarter of 2017 strengthened through 2018 - but remained weak – with services (primarily ICT) resuming as the key driver. As the oil sector is not labor-intensive, and the non-oil economy was still relatively weak, nearly a quarter of the work force was unemployed in 2018; and another 20 percent under-employed. With 3.9 million net entrants into the labor fo...
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2022
This paper examines the residential demand for electricity in Nigeria as a function of real gross... more This paper examines the residential demand for electricity in Nigeria as a function of real gross domestic product per capita, price of electricity, and price of a substitute between 1970 to 2007. The bounds testing approach used to cointegration within an autoregressive distributed framework, suggested by Pesaran et al. (2001). In the long run, we found that income and the price of substitute emerges as the main determinant of electricity demand in Nigeria, while electricity price is insignificant. The relationship among the variables is stable and significant.
The Journal of Developing Areas, 2020
Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 2017
This study reexamines the sustainability of the current account in Nigeria over four decades usin... more This study reexamines the sustainability of the current account in Nigeria over four decades using time-series analysis on annual data from 1981 to 2013. We focus on two analytical distinctions to the inter-temporal budget constraint (IBC) hypothesis in relation to previous studies. First, we extend the standard bivariate approach to a multivariate framework that accounts for the roles of oil price variations and financial deepening, which have important implications for resource allocation. Second is the use of the Toda–Yamamoto modified Wald (MWALD)-based causality test that is also carried out to arbitrage between the results with and without a structural break. It employs both the conventional unit root test (augmented Dickey–Fuller [ADF] and Phillips–Perron [PP]) and the unit root test with a structural break (Perron, 2006; Zivot & Andrews, 1992). It also carries out the conventional residual-based cointegration test (Engle & Granger, 1987) and the residual-based cointegration ...
africametrics.org
This paper examines the residential demand for electricity in Nigeria as a function of real gross... more This paper examines the residential demand for electricity in Nigeria as a function of real gross domestic product per capita, and the price of electricity, the price of substitute and population between 1970 and 2006. We make use of the bounds testing approach to cointegration within an autoregressive distributed framework, suggested by Pesaran et al. [2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16(3) 289-326]. In the long run, we find that income, the price of substitute and population emerges as the main determinant of electricity demand in Nigeria, while electricity price is insignificant. The relationship among variables is more stable and significant. The relationship among variables is more stable and significant
International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Feb 27, 2013
Over the years, substantial theoretical and empirical studies have been conducted on the financia... more Over the years, substantial theoretical and empirical studies have been conducted on the financial development-economic growth nexus. While a strand of the literature has found a positive linkage between this critical nexus, the other suggests otherwise. This study contributes to the debate by examining the finance-growth nexus for Nigeria using the bounds testing approach to cointegration within an ARDL framework proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) and the augmented Granger causality test developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995).Empirical evidence reveals that financial development significantly affects economic growth in the short and long run. The major implication for our study therefore is that financial regulatory institutions need to be strengthened to better maximize the gains from financial development especially its role towards real sector development and job creation for the growing population.
Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, 2014
In this paper, we reassess the traditional import demand function and an augmented version that i... more In this paper, we reassess the traditional import demand function and an augmented version that includes volatility of external reserves and oil revenue inflows as explanatory variables. In each version, we examine the role of regime shifts on the stability of Nigeria's import demand function which has been ignored in previous studies. Our findings suggest the existence of a long-run relationship between import demand and its determinants. We also present evidence of one-way causality running from changes in relative prices, oil revenue inflows and volatility of international reserves to import demand in Nigeria. However, when structural breaks were introduced, bi-directional causality is observed; indicating the critical role of regime shifts in determining the stability of Nigeria's import demand. The results make a case for diversifying Nigeria's revenue inflows in a bid to dampen the effect of contemporaneous shocks that affect external reserve accumulation thereby weakening its import financing capacity.
PSN: Trade Policy (Topic), 2015
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between trade liberalisation a... more Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between trade liberalisation and intra-regional trade in some selected ECOWAS member countries, with particular focus on the role of applied and most favoured nation import tariffs. Design/methodology/approach – Data utilized were sourced from the World Bank's World Development and Governance Indicators, Mayer and Zignago (2006) distance index as well as the World Trade Organisation's World Integrated Trade System (WiTs). The sample period consists of 8 countries covering the years 1998 to 2011. Predicated on a gravity framework, system and difference generalised method of moments dynamic panel data estimators were relied upon. Findings – The empirical results showed that trade liberalisation has contributed to intra-regional trade in the West African sub-region. The potency of trade liberalisation was relatively more pronounced through the use of most favoured nation import tariff compared to applied import ...
Journal of economic development, 2020
This paper examines the relationship between current account dynamics, relative output performanc... more This paper examines the relationship between current account dynamics, relative output performance and real exchange rate adjustment in Nigeria. A structural vector autoregression model that imposes the long-run neutrality assumption of Blanchard and Quah was used to analyze data for the period 1981Q1-2017Q4. Findings show that fiscal shocks drive the dynamics of relative output and current account in Nigeria but do not explain real exchange rate adjustment. However, exchange rate shocks influence the path of relative output while a deterioration of the current account balance in response to a monetary contraction is observed, suggesting the existence of the expenditure-switching effect. The worsening of the current account in response to a fiscal expansion validates the twin-deficit hypothesis in Nigeria. The impact of shocks was found to be more pronounced under the fixed relative to a flexible exchange rate regime. The results make a case for policies that could improve the trade...
Applied Econometrics and International Development, 2016
This paper investigates the determinants of human capital development in 33 African countries ove... more This paper investigates the determinants of human capital development in 33 African countries over the period 2000 to 2013. Results of panel unit root shows that all the variables are integrated of order one while the co integration tests showed that human capital development and its determinants have a stable long-run equilibrium relationship. Specifically, all the variables significantly influence human capital development in the long run whereas the contemporaneous models suggest that only institutions matter. Through the use of alternative estimators as well as estimation of subsamples, our robustness tests reinforce our findings. Therefore, African governments may sustain human capital development through sustained education and health expenditures. At the same time, short-term gains may be attained with enhanced institutional quality as well as infrastructural development.
Economic and Financial Review, Sep 1, 2011
This paper examined the determinants of international reserves holding in Nigeria, where a huge a... more This paper examined the determinants of international reserves holding in Nigeria, where a huge amount of foreign reserves is necessary to ensure good macroeconomic policy and international credit worthiness. Adopting a dynamic modeling approach combined with the Mizon-Richard encompassing test, both precautionary and mercantilist motives explain holding of foreign reserves in Nigeria. Specifically, the current account variability and past levels of external reserves drive reserve holding in the short run. In the long run, the former and the money supply are significant determinants. Therefore, enhancement of exports through support for quality and competitiveness of non-oil exports are key to reserves management.
Energy & Environment
Investigating the current and future dynamics of energy consumption in modern economies such as t... more Investigating the current and future dynamics of energy consumption in modern economies such as the UK is crucial. This paper predicts the UK's energy consumption using data spanning January 1995 to March 2022 by comparing and evaluating the forecast performance of machine learning, dynamic regression, time series and combination modelling techniques. The analysis reveals that the seasonal ARIMA and TBATS hybrid models yield the lowest forecast errors in predicting the UK's electricity and gas consumption. Although the combination forecasts performed poorly relative to other models, machine learning techniques such as neural network and support vector regression produced better results compared to the dynamic regression models, whereas the seasonal hybrid model performed better than the machine learning and time series models. The results indicate that the UK's electricity consumption would either stabilise or decline over the forecast horizon, suggesting that it will ta...
Nigeria continues its recovery from the 2016 recession, sustaining an estimated 2 percent growthr... more Nigeria continues its recovery from the 2016 recession, sustaining an estimated 2 percent growthrate in 2019. The collapse of global oil prices during 2014–16, combined with lower domestic oil production, led to a sudden slowdown in economic activity. Nigeria’s annual real GDP growth rate, which averaged 7 percent from 2000 to 2014, fell to 2.7 percent in 2015 and to -1.6 percent in 2016. Growth rebounded to 0.8 percent in 2017, 1.9 percent in 2018, and then plateaued at 2 percent in the first half of 2019, where it is expected to remain for the rest of the year. Services, particularly telecoms, remained the main driver of growth in 2019, although trade started contracting amidst increasing use of policy measures aimed at import substitution. Agricultural growth picked up slightly but remains affected by insurgency in the Northeast region and ongoing farmer-herder conflicts. Industrial performance was mixed: growth in the oil sector remained stable, but manufacturing production slow...
Nigeria's emergence from recession remains slow: real GDP grew by 1.9 percent in 2018. While ... more Nigeria's emergence from recession remains slow: real GDP grew by 1.9 percent in 2018. While this was above the 0.8 percent growth of 2017, it was below the population growth rate, government projections and pre-recession levels. The oil and gas sector reverted to contraction from the second quarter of the year and the non-oil economy was thus the main driver of growth in 2018. While agriculture slowed down significantly due to conflict and weather events, whose effects were not counteracted by direct interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), non-oil, non-agricultural growth, which remained negative up to the third quarter of 2017 strengthened through 2018 - but remained weak – with services (primarily ICT) resuming as the key driver. As the oil sector is not labor-intensive, and the non-oil economy was still relatively weak, nearly a quarter of the work force was unemployed in 2018; and another 20 percent under-employed. With 3.9 million net entrants into the labor fo...
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2022
This paper examines the residential demand for electricity in Nigeria as a function of real gross... more This paper examines the residential demand for electricity in Nigeria as a function of real gross domestic product per capita, price of electricity, and price of a substitute between 1970 to 2007. The bounds testing approach used to cointegration within an autoregressive distributed framework, suggested by Pesaran et al. (2001). In the long run, we found that income and the price of substitute emerges as the main determinant of electricity demand in Nigeria, while electricity price is insignificant. The relationship among the variables is stable and significant.
The Journal of Developing Areas, 2020
Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 2017
This study reexamines the sustainability of the current account in Nigeria over four decades usin... more This study reexamines the sustainability of the current account in Nigeria over four decades using time-series analysis on annual data from 1981 to 2013. We focus on two analytical distinctions to the inter-temporal budget constraint (IBC) hypothesis in relation to previous studies. First, we extend the standard bivariate approach to a multivariate framework that accounts for the roles of oil price variations and financial deepening, which have important implications for resource allocation. Second is the use of the Toda–Yamamoto modified Wald (MWALD)-based causality test that is also carried out to arbitrage between the results with and without a structural break. It employs both the conventional unit root test (augmented Dickey–Fuller [ADF] and Phillips–Perron [PP]) and the unit root test with a structural break (Perron, 2006; Zivot & Andrews, 1992). It also carries out the conventional residual-based cointegration test (Engle & Granger, 1987) and the residual-based cointegration ...
africametrics.org
This paper examines the residential demand for electricity in Nigeria as a function of real gross... more This paper examines the residential demand for electricity in Nigeria as a function of real gross domestic product per capita, and the price of electricity, the price of substitute and population between 1970 and 2006. We make use of the bounds testing approach to cointegration within an autoregressive distributed framework, suggested by Pesaran et al. [2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16(3) 289-326]. In the long run, we find that income, the price of substitute and population emerges as the main determinant of electricity demand in Nigeria, while electricity price is insignificant. The relationship among variables is more stable and significant. The relationship among variables is more stable and significant
International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Feb 27, 2013
Over the years, substantial theoretical and empirical studies have been conducted on the financia... more Over the years, substantial theoretical and empirical studies have been conducted on the financial development-economic growth nexus. While a strand of the literature has found a positive linkage between this critical nexus, the other suggests otherwise. This study contributes to the debate by examining the finance-growth nexus for Nigeria using the bounds testing approach to cointegration within an ARDL framework proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) and the augmented Granger causality test developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995).Empirical evidence reveals that financial development significantly affects economic growth in the short and long run. The major implication for our study therefore is that financial regulatory institutions need to be strengthened to better maximize the gains from financial development especially its role towards real sector development and job creation for the growing population.
Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, 2014
In this paper, we reassess the traditional import demand function and an augmented version that i... more In this paper, we reassess the traditional import demand function and an augmented version that includes volatility of external reserves and oil revenue inflows as explanatory variables. In each version, we examine the role of regime shifts on the stability of Nigeria's import demand function which has been ignored in previous studies. Our findings suggest the existence of a long-run relationship between import demand and its determinants. We also present evidence of one-way causality running from changes in relative prices, oil revenue inflows and volatility of international reserves to import demand in Nigeria. However, when structural breaks were introduced, bi-directional causality is observed; indicating the critical role of regime shifts in determining the stability of Nigeria's import demand. The results make a case for diversifying Nigeria's revenue inflows in a bid to dampen the effect of contemporaneous shocks that affect external reserve accumulation thereby weakening its import financing capacity.
PSN: Trade Policy (Topic), 2015
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between trade liberalisation a... more Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between trade liberalisation and intra-regional trade in some selected ECOWAS member countries, with particular focus on the role of applied and most favoured nation import tariffs. Design/methodology/approach – Data utilized were sourced from the World Bank's World Development and Governance Indicators, Mayer and Zignago (2006) distance index as well as the World Trade Organisation's World Integrated Trade System (WiTs). The sample period consists of 8 countries covering the years 1998 to 2011. Predicated on a gravity framework, system and difference generalised method of moments dynamic panel data estimators were relied upon. Findings – The empirical results showed that trade liberalisation has contributed to intra-regional trade in the West African sub-region. The potency of trade liberalisation was relatively more pronounced through the use of most favoured nation import tariff compared to applied import ...
Journal of economic development, 2020
This paper examines the relationship between current account dynamics, relative output performanc... more This paper examines the relationship between current account dynamics, relative output performance and real exchange rate adjustment in Nigeria. A structural vector autoregression model that imposes the long-run neutrality assumption of Blanchard and Quah was used to analyze data for the period 1981Q1-2017Q4. Findings show that fiscal shocks drive the dynamics of relative output and current account in Nigeria but do not explain real exchange rate adjustment. However, exchange rate shocks influence the path of relative output while a deterioration of the current account balance in response to a monetary contraction is observed, suggesting the existence of the expenditure-switching effect. The worsening of the current account in response to a fiscal expansion validates the twin-deficit hypothesis in Nigeria. The impact of shocks was found to be more pronounced under the fixed relative to a flexible exchange rate regime. The results make a case for policies that could improve the trade...
Applied Econometrics and International Development, 2016
This paper investigates the determinants of human capital development in 33 African countries ove... more This paper investigates the determinants of human capital development in 33 African countries over the period 2000 to 2013. Results of panel unit root shows that all the variables are integrated of order one while the co integration tests showed that human capital development and its determinants have a stable long-run equilibrium relationship. Specifically, all the variables significantly influence human capital development in the long run whereas the contemporaneous models suggest that only institutions matter. Through the use of alternative estimators as well as estimation of subsamples, our robustness tests reinforce our findings. Therefore, African governments may sustain human capital development through sustained education and health expenditures. At the same time, short-term gains may be attained with enhanced institutional quality as well as infrastructural development.