Milan Lapin | Comenius University (original) (raw)

Papers by Milan Lapin

World Geomorphological Landscapes

Global Precipitations and Climate Change, 1994

Predicted climate change connected with the increase in the atmospheric greenhouse effect will pr... more Predicted climate change connected with the increase in the atmospheric greenhouse effect will probably cause changes of atmospheric circulation and, from this, resulting changes of precipitation, cloudiness, snowcover, air humidity and other climatic elements all over the world. These changes can seriously influence the natural environment and socio-economic activities in many countries. The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) expressed the risks of possible climate change and the necessary measures for reduction of those risks in the Framework Convention on Climate Change and in Convention Agenda 21. In this paper some model calculations and scientific assessments of the possible impacts of the temperature rise and the precipitation regime change upon water balance, relative air humidity and snow cover variability in Central Europe are presented. Calculation of water balance elements was carried out according to the Zubenok - Budyko complex method. At assessment of climate warming impacts upon changes of relative air humidity and snow cover characteristics was used an empirical correlation method. Two climatological stations (Hurbanovo 115 m a.s.l. and Liptovský Hradok 640 m a.s.l.) were used as a basic source for all calculations, and seven other ones in Slovakia for the correlation method applications. This paper represents a brief review of results obtained in completing some of the Czechoslovak National Climate Programme tasks in 1991 and 1992.

There are several meteorological stations in Slovakia (30-45, dependent on climatic element) with... more There are several meteorological stations in Slovakia (30-45, dependent on climatic element) with complete and good quality observations since 1951 (some of them only since 1961). Three stations have complete data since 1881. Most of these stations well represent such important sub-regions like the Danubian Lowland, other lowlands and hollows in Slovakia, or the area around the Tatra Mts. This paper presents some details on daily air humidity characteristics and daily saturation deficit at Hurbanovo (115 m a. s. l. SW Slovakia) in 1961-2009, including some information on air temperature, precipitation and modeled evapotranspiration. In 2007 the newest Canadian CGCM3.1 climatic model with daily data outputs have been analyzed (IPCC emission scenarios SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 were applied). Selected information on scenarios of daily air humidity data in 1961-2100 for Hurbanovo and other localities in Slovakia are presented , all based only on the CGCM3.1 outputs and the Slovak Hydrometeoro...

Global warming became the reality. The rate and duration of warming in the 20th century is probab... more Global warming became the reality. The rate and duration of warming in the 20th century is probably the biggest within the last 1000 years (about 0.6 K from 1861). In the Northern hemisphere the 1991-2000 decade was the warmest of the last millennium. The year 1998 was globally the warmest and 2002 the second warmest since the beginning of climatologic observations. The temperature trend in Slovakia is analogous to the global one, since 1901 the warming has reached a level of about 1.1 K. Climate system variability has not changed significantly. This paper discusses the estimation of sufficiently exact thermal parameters for the heating season in Slovakia, mainly in conditions anticipated during the first decades of the 21st century. Data from 32 clima-tologic stations during the period of 1961-2003 have been used. V poslednom období sme svedkami globálneho otepľovania, ktoré predstavuje asi 0,6 K od r. 1861. Miera a dĺžka trvania oteplenia v 20. storočí bola prav-depodobne väčšia a...

This paper is devoted to detection of some expected changes in the climatological regime (means, ... more This paper is devoted to detection of some expected changes in the climatological regime (means, variability, frequency distribution) at selected elements due to climate change. Very reliable time series of daily data (air temperature and relative humidity since 1951) measured by the meteorological stations at Hurbanovo, 115 m a.s.l., SW Slovakia, Poprad, 695 m a.sl., at the foot of the High Tatras mountains and Lomnický štít, 2635 m a.s.l., the 3 rd highest peak in Slovakia have been utilized. More over the daily aerological data measured at the Poprad-Gánovce Observatory since 1961 (850 hPa) were elaborated for comparisons with those obtained by ground measurements. Some results are compared also with those designed as climate change scenarios for Slovakia based on the modified CGCM2 GCM outputs. The results showed very significant increase in temperature and decrease in relative humidity in the April to August season after 1990. Only selected results are presented in this extende...

Climate change due to enhanced greenhouse effect will probably result in several interesting chan... more Climate change due to enhanced greenhouse effect will probably result in several interesting changes in global and regional climate. One of them is the global warm- ing. Because of changed energetic balance daily regime it seems that the daily minimum temperatures will increase more than the daily maximum ones. On the other hand, daily range of air temperature is influenced by several other fac- tors (atmospheric circulation, solar radiation, cloudiness, air humidity, soil moisture, upwind and lee effects etc.). The paper contains a sample from the analysis of past conditions in change of air temperature daily range at several Slovak stations in 1961-2010 and possible change in daily air temperature range up to the time frame of the year 2100 using climate change scenarios by four climatic models (global CGCM3.1 and ECHAM5, regional KNMI and MPI) and three emission scenarios (IPCC SRES A2. B1 and A1B). The analysis results showed that the precipitation and air humidity regime change...

In the paper the review of very high one- to five-day precipitation total scenarios for the 2010,... more In the paper the review of very high one- to five-day precipitation total scenarios for the 2010, 2030 and 2075 time frames is presented. These totals can potentially cause flash floods in the medium-scale river basins in Slovakia. There is presented briefly also the method of scenarios design for unusually dry periods. As a base the Canadian GCMs CCCM 1997 and CCCM 2000 as well as the U.S.A. GISS 1998 model outputs regionally modified for Slovakia have been used. The measured series of extraordinary high precipitation totals in the river basins Kysuca and upper Hron in the period 1951-2001 have been used as the reference. The year 1992 represents a reference dry and warm year there.

Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 2016

Bulletin of Geography. Physical Geography Series, 2009

In this paper methods of climate-change scenario projection in Slovakia for the 21st century are ... more In this paper methods of climate-change scenario projection in Slovakia for the 21st century are outlined. Temperature and precipitation time series of the Hurbanovo Observatory in 1871-2007 (Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute) and data from four global GCMs (GISS 1998, CGCM1, CGCM2, HadCM3) are utilized for the design of climate change scenarios. Selected results of different climate change scenarios (based on different methods) for the region of Slovakia (up to 2100) are presented. The increase in annual mean temperature is about 3°C, though the results are ambiguous in the case of precipitation. These scenarios are required by users in impact studies, mainly from the hydrology, agriculture and forestry sectors.

Soil and Water Research, 2008

The trends of carbon sequestration behaviour have been estimated for the most fertile soil type o... more The trends of carbon sequestration behaviour have been estimated for the most fertile soil type of Slovakia based on the prognosticated regional climate change scenario. The processes were modelled and simulated by CENTURY 5 model to provide these inputs: predicted information about quantification of carbon and nitrogen fluxes, and primary net of organic matter production. Soil conditions were represented by the soil type calcareous Haplic Chernozem (Danubian lowland), and the climatic scenario was related to the meteorological station Hurbanovo modelled for the period of 2005−2090. The dynamics of soil carbon and nitrogen was assessed using a conventional cropping system, concretely for 5-years crop rotation winter wheat-maize-oats (feed)-alfalfa-alfalfa modified into two alternatives: with fertilisation and without irrigation (ALT1), and excluding fertilisation and irrigation (ALT2). The model CENTURY 5 provides the simulation of three soil organic matter pools: the active (labile...

Contributions to Geophysics and Geodesy, 2013

In the study the potential impact of climate change on river runoff in the upper Hron River, V´ah... more In the study the potential impact of climate change on river runoff in the upper Hron River, V´ah River, and Laborec River basin was evaluated using the Hron conceptual spatially-lumped rainfall-runoff model, which was driven by regional circulation models of atmosphere. The rainfall-runoff model was calibrated with data from the 1981-1995 period and validated with data from the 1996-2010 period. Changes in climate variables in the future were expressed by three different regional climate change projections: KNMI, MPI and ALADIN-Climate for the period 1961-2100. Changes in the seasonal runoff distribution were evaluated by a comparison of the simulated long-term mean monthly discharges in the river basin outlets in future decades with the present stage.

Geofizika, 2016

Atmospheric drought in lowlands in Slovakia is analyzed on the bases of Standardised Precipitatio... more Atmospheric drought in lowlands in Slovakia is analyzed on the bases of Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). This paper gives information about the dynamic, intensity, seasonal and territorial differences in occurrence of drought with various intensity: mild (near to normal), moderate, severe and extreme for the period 1961-2011. Future changes in occurrence of drought are determined on the basis of model data (regional circulation models KNMI and MPI) for temperature and precipitation for two periods: 2001-2050 and 2051-2100. The results show that temperature has an important role for occurrence of moderate and severe drought at monthly level and precipitation is the main factor for occurrence of extreme drought. There are an increasing number of cases with severe or extreme drought in summer for most of the investigated stations. Future projection of drought shows general tendency to increasing frequency of severe dry events in 2001-2050 and 2051-2100 while there will be a little decreasing of extremely dry months in comparison to 1961-2010.

Contributions to Geophysics and Geodesy, 2007

Heavy multi-day precipitation totals in the cold season are studied using 35 to 53 years long ser... more Heavy multi-day precipitation totals in the cold season are studied using 35 to 53 years long series of observations from 56 climatological stations in Slovakia. Maxima of three to five-day precipitation totals in the period from October till March were chosen as data sets to be analyzed, since multi-day precipitation events in the cold season that are predominantly of frontal origin involve a considerable potential for flood risk. The selected data are processed by means of the L-moments based regional frequency analysis of Hosking and Wallis. The aim of the paper is to examine, whether it is possible to identify homogeneous regions for the regional frequency analysis based purely on subjective considerations, using knowledge about the long-term regime of precipitation in the country. Several methods of process based-delineation of geographically contiguous regions are proposed and compared. At the end, regional and at-site estimates of design values for the return periods T = 20 and 100 years, respectively, are calculated and compared for selected stations from different regions, in order to assess the order of uncertainties associated with the subjective selection of the regions.

Contributions to Geophysics and Geodesy, 2015

In order to estimate possible changes in the flood regime in the mountainous regions of Slovakia,... more In order to estimate possible changes in the flood regime in the mountainous regions of Slovakia, a simple physically-based concept for climate change-induced changes in extreme 5-day precipitation totals is proposed in the paper. It utilizes regionally downscaled scenarios of the long-term monthly means of the air temperature, specific air humidity and precipitation projected for Central Slovakia by two regional (RCM) and two global circulation models (GCM). A simplified physically-based model for the calculation of short-term precipitation totals over the course of changing air temperatures, which is used to drive a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was proposed. In the paper a case study of this approach in the upper Hron river basin in Central Slovakia is presented. From the 1981–2010 period, 20 events of the basin’s most extreme average of 5-day precipitation totals were selected. Only events with continual precipitation during 5 days were considered. These 5-day precipitation ...

Last winter (Dec. 2011 – Feb. 2012) had about 0.6 °C higher mean air temperature on the Northern ... more Last winter (Dec. 2011 – Feb. 2012) had about 0.6 °C higher mean air temperature on the Northern hemisphere con-tinents than the 1961 – 1990 normal. In spite of this some continental regions were significantly below normal, mainly due to unusually cold weather during the first half of February (Central and Eastern Asia, Alaska and Southeastern Europe). On the other hand, the Northern Europe and NorthernAsia had mean temperature above normal, the Northern America and the Arctic significantly above normal. Three winter months exhibited extreme deviations of seve-ral climatologic variables from normal also in Slovakia. While 17 days (of total 91) were colder than the normal range, 41 days were warmer (normal range for daily mean temperature is ±2.7 °C from the long-term average). Southern Slovakia had only several days with snow cover and precipitation totals about 80% of normal, but some localities inthe northwestern Slovakia were paralyzed by heavy snowfalls and precipitation totals ...

The global climate becomes warmer recently. In this contribution the tendency of climate regime c... more The global climate becomes warmer recently. In this contribution the tendency of climate regime change in the region of the Danubian lowland in Slovakia is studied. In the first part of this paper the detection of climatic trends and variability at the Hurbanovo Observatory in 1871-2006 is analyzed and in the second one the climate scenarios for the 21 st century are outlined. These scenarios are based on the global climatic General Circulation Models outputs.