Ray Wyatt | University of Melbourne (original) (raw)
Papers by Ray Wyatt
The following pages comprise one of two volumes of "dissertations" submitted by the 196... more The following pages comprise one of two volumes of "dissertations" submitted by the 1968 students of the Diploma of Town and Regional Planning, as part of their final year subject "Advanced Practical Work".1. Public open space / G. J. Cole -- 2. The neighbourhood concept in 1968 / L. S. Rudolph -- 3. Professional planning in Victoria / B. G. Hill -- 4. Rehabilitation of Inner-suburban residential areas / P. Sanders -- 5. Land use prediction models / R. Wyatt
Springer eBooks, Nov 20, 2016
Norman and Tina trawled their system’s databanks to find that traditional, human-driven stakehold... more Norman and Tina trawled their system’s databanks to find that traditional, human-driven stakeholder workshops might entrench attitudinal differences rather than foster greater consensus like computer-driven workshops do. They also found tentative evidence for hypotheses such as older people preferring easy plans, Westerners preferring plans that are correct and effective and people from the East favouring plans that are efficient and acceptable. In addition, they uncovered similarities in the planning priorities of students from places as far apart as Brazil and Sardinia, and they mapped people’s attitudes within different types of neighbourhood.
Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 1996
In this paper, advice-giving software which uses various strategy-evaluation criteria is describe... more In this paper, advice-giving software which uses various strategy-evaluation criteria is described. Ultimately the software will make use of an artificial neural network to connect the scores of strategies on the evaluation criteria with their overall desirability scores, and such 'learning' will, in theory, enable the software to give better and better advice the more it is used. To test
Springer eBooks, Nov 20, 2016
Springer eBooks, Nov 20, 2016
Springer eBooks, Nov 20, 2016
Springer eBooks, Nov 20, 2016
Springer eBooks, Nov 20, 2016
Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 1980
It is argued that acknowledgement of complexity is followed by feelings of helplessness which gen... more It is argued that acknowledgement of complexity is followed by feelings of helplessness which generate three distinct policymaking styles. These three, labelled analytical abdication, analytical alchemy, and analytical addiction, are outlined in terms of their logical bases, strengths, and weaknesses. A natural tendency for the emphasis of fashion to oscillate between all three, in order to speed progress towards greater understanding, is demonstrated, and its inhibition by policymakers' general intolerance towards work based on viewpoints radically different from their own is criticised. More tolerance towards useful features of each approach is thus suggested as the best tactic against the growing complexity problem.
Environment and Planning B-planning & Design, 1996
This paper looks at the context, underlying theory, problem- types solved, and applications of ne... more This paper looks at the context, underlying theory, problem- types solved, and applications of network analysis in urban planning. The power of network analysis is shown to derive from its mathematically precise roots in graph theory and matrix algebra, which allows it to use the proven and widely-applicable theorems from each field. It is thus able to bring logic, precision and much insight to analysis of flow patterns, shortest routes, longest routes, and optimal combinations of variables. Its application to such areas as geographical analysis, traffic planning, critical path scheduling and optimisation of households' distribution is then discussed, always hypercritically, so as to keep potential users fully aware of the dangers of misapplication of the techniques in policy making. Then, some of the unsolved problems of network analysis are outlined together with a concluding comment on the technique's general strengths and weaknesses. Finally, a brief description is given of an alternative approach to ultra-complex problems, where traditional network analysis can break down. In the appendix, step-by-step instruction are given for solving maximal flow, shortest route, critical path schedule and simplex linear programming problems respectively. (Author/TRRL)
Springer eBooks, Nov 20, 2016
Journal of Urban Management, Jun 1, 2021
In mid 2020 people vigorously debated which Corona virus-management strategy should be implemente... more In mid 2020 people vigorously debated which Corona virus-management strategy should be implemented-'total Lockdown', 'Partial Lockdown' or 'do Nothing'. For success, the chosen strategy would need considerable public support. So here we demonstrate how support, or otherwise, could have been predicted using our freely available Planticipate app. It self improves by sending its users' judgements to the cloud, where learning routines formulate regression-and neural network-based relationships between thirteen, key, plan-evaluation criteria and overall plan desirability. Hence whenever any set of plans are scored on the criteria, these relationships generate forecasts of plan desirability according to a number of demographic groups of past users. Our app predicted that many community groups will regard the 'do-Nothing' option as statistically significantly inferior to the other two plans, and it also made several less-than-statisticallysignificant forecasts which were extremely thought provoking. Using innovative face charts to better interpret complicated, thirteen-dimensional data, Planticipate also suggested probable reasons for such forecasts. These included an apparent fixation upon only permissiveness and productivity by people living in North America and relative pragmatism amongst females. Such revelations immediately suggested possible modifications for making different plans more acceptable to certain community groups. Given that in reality several of these modifications were only implemented later on during the pandemic, an early application of our app would almost certainly have prompted faster, more creative and more empathetic urban management. 1. Introduction This paper presents some innovative software that forecasts demographic groups' attitudes towards alternative plans in an objective and rigorous way. The program is self improving in the sense that it becomes better at predicting as more and more people use it-it learns from the serious judgements made by its past users. It is known as the "Planticipate" app, and it is free for anyone to access at https://www.planprediction.org. To demonstrate the depth of the insights that it generates, we will here use it to address what was a burning question within most countries during 2020how to best manage the Corona virus pandemic. Many words have been written about how COVID-19 might be changing the nature of urban planning and urban management, as reviewed by Sharifi and Khavarian-Garmsir (2020). For example, Ellis (2020) suggests that because emergency measures have been implemented to help the disadvantaged during the pandemic we are now well placed to continue initiatives like more public housing, encouragement of active mobility and medium-sized rather than mega-sized cities. Similarly, Muggah and Ermacora (2020) suggest that post pandemic there will be an increase in online shopping, a reciprocal fall in
Journal of Planning Education and Research, Nov 23, 2016
We demonstrate an approach that has considerable potential for more effectively analysing urban s... more We demonstrate an approach that has considerable potential for more effectively analysing urban structures. We focus upon the different neighbourhoods' different levels of liveability which, we argue, can be encapsulated using two types of statistic-"opportunity indicators" and "success indicators". For opportunity indicators we mapped different zones' "accessibility to shops" and "accessibility to jobs", and for success indicators we mapped "average income", "percentage of adults employed", "tree cover" and "lack of traffic"'. We then used what we claim to be an advance upon normal clustering methods-neural clustering, in order to cluster zones into groups that are similar. Finally, we mapped such clusters using an innovative, graphical-communication method known as face charts. By closely inspecting the maps of clustered face charts, rather than using more conventional methods, one gains more insight into the similarities and differences between our two cities.
Applied Gis, Apr 1, 2012
The prototype Spatial Optimizer 1.0 program for allocation of commodity production is demonstrate... more The prototype Spatial Optimizer 1.0 program for allocation of commodity production is demonstrated to show its potential as a decision support aid for policy making. The case study involves a set of agricultural commodities in south eastern Australia and the program uses estimates of each grid cell"s soil suitability for each of the eight crops, both in the year 2000 and in the year 2050, by which time soil characteristics are expected to have been affected by environmental change. We first predict how much total regional production will result from a judicious re-location of commodity types, both under conditions of complete flexibility and when constrained by more realistic, upper and lower limits on production, and we compare such predictions with current production levels. We also estimate potential total regional revenue, both in the short term when current prices are assumed to remain static and in the long term when prices are assumed to change according to how much of each commodity is produced compared to its current output level, and we compare these results with current agricultural revenue. Our long-term estimates are based on year 2000 soil-suitability values and then on year 2050 soil-suitability values in order to gauge the probable impacts of environmental change. Finally, we run the 2050 simulation twice more, with one of the recommended, dominant crops removed in each instance. This generates maps of some localised concentrations of other commodities that will become necessary in the future if maximum revenue is to be retained after one of the more lucrative crops is discontinued.
The following pages comprise one of two volumes of "dissertations" submitted by the 196... more The following pages comprise one of two volumes of "dissertations" submitted by the 1968 students of the Diploma of Town and Regional Planning, as part of their final year subject "Advanced Practical Work".1. Public open space / G. J. Cole -- 2. The neighbourhood concept in 1968 / L. S. Rudolph -- 3. Professional planning in Victoria / B. G. Hill -- 4. Rehabilitation of Inner-suburban residential areas / P. Sanders -- 5. Land use prediction models / R. Wyatt
Springer eBooks, Nov 20, 2016
Norman and Tina trawled their system’s databanks to find that traditional, human-driven stakehold... more Norman and Tina trawled their system’s databanks to find that traditional, human-driven stakeholder workshops might entrench attitudinal differences rather than foster greater consensus like computer-driven workshops do. They also found tentative evidence for hypotheses such as older people preferring easy plans, Westerners preferring plans that are correct and effective and people from the East favouring plans that are efficient and acceptable. In addition, they uncovered similarities in the planning priorities of students from places as far apart as Brazil and Sardinia, and they mapped people’s attitudes within different types of neighbourhood.
Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 1996
In this paper, advice-giving software which uses various strategy-evaluation criteria is describe... more In this paper, advice-giving software which uses various strategy-evaluation criteria is described. Ultimately the software will make use of an artificial neural network to connect the scores of strategies on the evaluation criteria with their overall desirability scores, and such 'learning' will, in theory, enable the software to give better and better advice the more it is used. To test
Springer eBooks, Nov 20, 2016
Springer eBooks, Nov 20, 2016
Springer eBooks, Nov 20, 2016
Springer eBooks, Nov 20, 2016
Springer eBooks, Nov 20, 2016
Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 1980
It is argued that acknowledgement of complexity is followed by feelings of helplessness which gen... more It is argued that acknowledgement of complexity is followed by feelings of helplessness which generate three distinct policymaking styles. These three, labelled analytical abdication, analytical alchemy, and analytical addiction, are outlined in terms of their logical bases, strengths, and weaknesses. A natural tendency for the emphasis of fashion to oscillate between all three, in order to speed progress towards greater understanding, is demonstrated, and its inhibition by policymakers' general intolerance towards work based on viewpoints radically different from their own is criticised. More tolerance towards useful features of each approach is thus suggested as the best tactic against the growing complexity problem.
Environment and Planning B-planning & Design, 1996
This paper looks at the context, underlying theory, problem- types solved, and applications of ne... more This paper looks at the context, underlying theory, problem- types solved, and applications of network analysis in urban planning. The power of network analysis is shown to derive from its mathematically precise roots in graph theory and matrix algebra, which allows it to use the proven and widely-applicable theorems from each field. It is thus able to bring logic, precision and much insight to analysis of flow patterns, shortest routes, longest routes, and optimal combinations of variables. Its application to such areas as geographical analysis, traffic planning, critical path scheduling and optimisation of households' distribution is then discussed, always hypercritically, so as to keep potential users fully aware of the dangers of misapplication of the techniques in policy making. Then, some of the unsolved problems of network analysis are outlined together with a concluding comment on the technique's general strengths and weaknesses. Finally, a brief description is given of an alternative approach to ultra-complex problems, where traditional network analysis can break down. In the appendix, step-by-step instruction are given for solving maximal flow, shortest route, critical path schedule and simplex linear programming problems respectively. (Author/TRRL)
Springer eBooks, Nov 20, 2016
Journal of Urban Management, Jun 1, 2021
In mid 2020 people vigorously debated which Corona virus-management strategy should be implemente... more In mid 2020 people vigorously debated which Corona virus-management strategy should be implemented-'total Lockdown', 'Partial Lockdown' or 'do Nothing'. For success, the chosen strategy would need considerable public support. So here we demonstrate how support, or otherwise, could have been predicted using our freely available Planticipate app. It self improves by sending its users' judgements to the cloud, where learning routines formulate regression-and neural network-based relationships between thirteen, key, plan-evaluation criteria and overall plan desirability. Hence whenever any set of plans are scored on the criteria, these relationships generate forecasts of plan desirability according to a number of demographic groups of past users. Our app predicted that many community groups will regard the 'do-Nothing' option as statistically significantly inferior to the other two plans, and it also made several less-than-statisticallysignificant forecasts which were extremely thought provoking. Using innovative face charts to better interpret complicated, thirteen-dimensional data, Planticipate also suggested probable reasons for such forecasts. These included an apparent fixation upon only permissiveness and productivity by people living in North America and relative pragmatism amongst females. Such revelations immediately suggested possible modifications for making different plans more acceptable to certain community groups. Given that in reality several of these modifications were only implemented later on during the pandemic, an early application of our app would almost certainly have prompted faster, more creative and more empathetic urban management. 1. Introduction This paper presents some innovative software that forecasts demographic groups' attitudes towards alternative plans in an objective and rigorous way. The program is self improving in the sense that it becomes better at predicting as more and more people use it-it learns from the serious judgements made by its past users. It is known as the "Planticipate" app, and it is free for anyone to access at https://www.planprediction.org. To demonstrate the depth of the insights that it generates, we will here use it to address what was a burning question within most countries during 2020how to best manage the Corona virus pandemic. Many words have been written about how COVID-19 might be changing the nature of urban planning and urban management, as reviewed by Sharifi and Khavarian-Garmsir (2020). For example, Ellis (2020) suggests that because emergency measures have been implemented to help the disadvantaged during the pandemic we are now well placed to continue initiatives like more public housing, encouragement of active mobility and medium-sized rather than mega-sized cities. Similarly, Muggah and Ermacora (2020) suggest that post pandemic there will be an increase in online shopping, a reciprocal fall in
Journal of Planning Education and Research, Nov 23, 2016
We demonstrate an approach that has considerable potential for more effectively analysing urban s... more We demonstrate an approach that has considerable potential for more effectively analysing urban structures. We focus upon the different neighbourhoods' different levels of liveability which, we argue, can be encapsulated using two types of statistic-"opportunity indicators" and "success indicators". For opportunity indicators we mapped different zones' "accessibility to shops" and "accessibility to jobs", and for success indicators we mapped "average income", "percentage of adults employed", "tree cover" and "lack of traffic"'. We then used what we claim to be an advance upon normal clustering methods-neural clustering, in order to cluster zones into groups that are similar. Finally, we mapped such clusters using an innovative, graphical-communication method known as face charts. By closely inspecting the maps of clustered face charts, rather than using more conventional methods, one gains more insight into the similarities and differences between our two cities.
Applied Gis, Apr 1, 2012
The prototype Spatial Optimizer 1.0 program for allocation of commodity production is demonstrate... more The prototype Spatial Optimizer 1.0 program for allocation of commodity production is demonstrated to show its potential as a decision support aid for policy making. The case study involves a set of agricultural commodities in south eastern Australia and the program uses estimates of each grid cell"s soil suitability for each of the eight crops, both in the year 2000 and in the year 2050, by which time soil characteristics are expected to have been affected by environmental change. We first predict how much total regional production will result from a judicious re-location of commodity types, both under conditions of complete flexibility and when constrained by more realistic, upper and lower limits on production, and we compare such predictions with current production levels. We also estimate potential total regional revenue, both in the short term when current prices are assumed to remain static and in the long term when prices are assumed to change according to how much of each commodity is produced compared to its current output level, and we compare these results with current agricultural revenue. Our long-term estimates are based on year 2000 soil-suitability values and then on year 2050 soil-suitability values in order to gauge the probable impacts of environmental change. Finally, we run the 2050 simulation twice more, with one of the recommended, dominant crops removed in each instance. This generates maps of some localised concentrations of other commodities that will become necessary in the future if maximum revenue is to be retained after one of the more lucrative crops is discontinued.