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Papers by Matías Mayor

ERSA conference …, Jan 1, 2004

The analysis of different economic situations and risk factors is necessary in order to properly ... more The analysis of different economic situations and risk factors is necessary in order to properly define forecasting scenarios.
In this paper we focus on the shift-share model as a useful tool in the definition of economic scenarios, based on the different components that contribute to the change of a given economic
magnitude (the so called national, sectoral and competitive effects).
Although the most commonly used methodology is based on the “constant shift” and the “constant share” hypotheses, additional options can be considered based on the expected behaviour of the competitive effect, thus leading to more realistic scenarios.
Once these new options are developed, this approach is applied to the definition of scenarios for the future evolution of the regional employment.

… , Dortmumd, August 27th …, Jan 1, 2002

The employment is a main economic variable whose evolution has shown different dynamics within th... more The employment is a main economic variable whose evolution has shown different dynamics within the European Union. Recent papers have recovered the significance of the sectoral factors in the explanation of the regional growth. In this sense, shift and share analysis has been considered an extremely useful technique and a standardization procedure has been developed to decompose the regional growth into three components: the national effect, the industry-mix effect and the competitive effect. Although shift and share analysis has been widely used in the explanation of the differences of growth between regions, this method has been criticized since its classical formulation does not allow to test hypotheses.
Therefore, stochastic models have been developed as an extension of classical shift and share analysis, allowing the implementation of inferential processes and forecasting tools. The aim of this paper is to analyze the recent evolution of the employment in the European Union, developing a stochastic shift and share model and testing the sources of regional and sectoral differences.

fceye.ull.es

En este trabajo abordamos el análisis del empleo en Asturias desde una perspectiva de género, des... more En este trabajo abordamos el análisis del empleo en Asturias desde una perspectiva de género, describiendo los rasgos que configuran la situación actual, su evolución reciente y sus perspectivas futuras. Dicho análisis resulta de gran interés en el momento presente, dado que las estrategias europeas en materia de empleo se proponen como objetivo convertir la Unión Europea en la economía más competitiva del mundo y lograr el pleno empleo en el año 2010 y que entre las debilidades detectadas para alcanzar estos objetivos se citan expresamente la insuficiente creación de empleos en el sector servicios, la elevada tasa de desempleo en general y de parados de larga duración en particular, la inadecuación entre oferta y demanda de mano de obra, la insuficiente participación femenina en el mercado laboral y la existencia de desequilibrios espaciales.
Estos dos últimos aspectos constituyen puntos clave de nuestro trabajo, ya que Asturias presenta condiciones más desfavorables que el conjunto nacional en lo que se refiere a las tasas de actividad, empleo y paro. Además, esta desventaja relativa de nuestra región se hace aún más patente cuando se analizan los indicadores correspondientes a la población femenina.
En esta situación, Asturias se enfrenta al importante reto de introducir mejoras en su mercado laboral, que le permitan acercarse a los objetivos fijados en el Consejo Europeo de Estocolmo de 2001 (tasa de empleo del 67% para la población total y del 57% para la población femenina). De ahí el interés de tratar de identificar los factores claves de la evolución reciente del empleo regional, cuantificando sus efectos diferenciales por sectores y sexos y elaborando escenarios de futuro para los próximos años.

International Journal of Manpower, 2014

ERSA conference papers, 2006

Spatial econometrics is a subdiscipline that have gained a huge popularity in the last twenty yea... more Spatial econometrics is a subdiscipline that have gained a huge popularity in the last twenty years, not only in theoretical econometrics but in empirical studies as well. Basically, spatial econometric methods measure spatial interaction and incorporate spatial structure into regression ...

Contemporary Economic Policy, 33, pp. 351-368., 2015

The aim of this paper is to study the role of municipal quality of life as a driver of tax strate... more The aim of this paper is to study the role of municipal quality of life as a driver of tax strategic interactions among local governments. The analysis is focused on the two main local taxes in Spain –property tax and motor vehicle tax- and on the municipalities above 50,000 inhabitants. Empirical evidence confirms the existence and relevance of such interactions in the property tax. On the contrary, in the case of motor vehicle tax such interaction patterns are not detected.

Revue d’Économie Régionale & Urbaine (Journal of Regional and Urban Economics), 2015

Empirical assessments of the forecasting power of spatial panel data econometric models are still... more Empirical assessments of the forecasting power of spatial panel data econometric models are still scarcely available. Moreover, several methodological contributions rely on simulated data to showcase the potential of proposed methods. While simulations may be useful to evaluate the properties of a single estimator, the empirical set-ups of simulation studies are often based on strong assumptions regarding the shape and regularity of the statistical distribution of the variables involved. It is then valuable to have, next to simulation studies, empirical assessments of competing econometric models based on real data. In this paper, we evaluate competing spatial (dynamic) panel methods, selecting a number of data sets characterized by a range of different crosssectional and temporal dimensions, as well as different levels of spatial autocorrelation. We carry out our empirical exercise on regional unemployment data for France, Spain and Switzerland. Additionally, we test different forecasting horizons, in order to investigate the speed of deterioration of forecasting quality. We compare two classes of methods: spatial vector autoregressive (SVAR) models and dynamic panel models making use of eigenvector spatial filtering (SF). We find that, as it could be expected, the unbalance between the temporal and cross-sectional dimension (T >> n) does play in favour of the SVAR model. On the other hand, the advantage of the SVAR model over the SF model appears to diminish as the forecasting horizon widens, eventually leading the SF model to being preferred for more distant forecasts.

Defining the Spatial Scale in Modern Regional Analysis: New Challenges from Data at Local Level, 2012

In any economic analysis, regions or municipalities should not be regarded as isolated spatial un... more In any economic analysis, regions or municipalities should not be regarded as isolated spatial units, but rather as highly interrelated small open economies. These spatial interrelations must be considered also when the aim is to forecast economic variables. For example, policy makers need accurate forecasts of the unemployment evolution in order to design short- or long-run local welfare policies. These predictions should then consider the spatial interrelations and dynamics of regional unemployment. In addition, a number of papers have demonstrated the improvement in the reliability of long-run forecasts when spatial dependence is accounted for. We estimate a heterogeneouscoefficients dynamic panel model employing a spatial filter in order to account for spatial heterogeneity and/or spatial autocorrelation in both the levels and the dynamics of unemployment, as well as a spatial vector-autoregressive (SVAR) model. We compare the short-run forecasting performance of these methods, and in particular, we carry out a sensitivity analysis in order to investigate if different number and size of the administrative regions influence their relative forecasting performance. We compute short-run unemployment forecasts in two countries with different administrative territorial divisions and data frequency: Switzerland (26 regions, monthly data for 34 years) and Spain (47 regions, quarterly data for 32 years)

The main goal of this study is to determine the effects of socio-economic, demographic and land-u... more The main goal of this study is to determine the effects of socio-economic, demographic and land-use factors on long-distance travel. Intercity trips are not very frequent activities, which caused a large share of the survey respondents to report zero kilometres travelled. The Double Hurdle Model, Infrequent Purchase Model and Heckman Selection Models are estimated. Distance travelled in trips longer than 50 km. is a function of gender, age, income, size of municipality, region of residence, mode of transport and trip purpose. Results indicate that zeroes reported in the survey are caused by corner solutions, which allow us to make recommendations about designing long-distance surveys.

Economics and Business Letters, 2014

Economic forecasting is a well-recognized field of study in economists. However, the ability of e... more Economic forecasting is a well-recognized field of study in economists. However, the ability of economists to make forecast has often been questioned. Recently, Lahiry (2011) summarizes this idea, saying that 'There is skepticism not only by laymen but by most academic economists regarding the true capability of macroeconomic forecasters. The conventional wisdom is that economic forecasters are mere charlatans.' Despite such negative opinions residing in part of the professional and academic domains of economics, businesses and policymakers need predictions, especially when the world economy is experiencing the Great Recession. In this sense, Kennedy (2003, p. 364) asserted that 'even if forecasts are poor, there are none better, and perhaps a poor forecast is better than none at all.'

Road transportation infrastructure projects in Spain have been promoted, raising the quality of S... more Road transportation infrastructure projects in Spain have been promoted, raising the quality of Spain’s road transportation network to European standards in a short period of time. The objective of this chapter is to measure the output effect of road transportation infrastructure in Spain in the period between 1997 and 2006. In particular we estimate a production function using a panel dataset of Spanish provinces (NUTS 3) in order to account for marginal productivity effects within a province and to document the existence of spillover effects outside the provincial boundaries through the use of spatial econometric methodologies. Road infrastructure endowment indicators are measured using three different indicators: an accessibility measure, the traditional road stock indicators and a variable to accommodate the stock indicator to the degree of utilization. Estimation results show that road transportation infrastructure positively impacts upon the performance of the Spanish economy. The spillover effects of road infrastructure stock and accessibility on neighbouring provinces are larger than direct impacts caused by the infrastructure where it is located.

Papers in Regional Science, Nov 2012

This paper focuses on the differences in the levels of accessibility to public employment offices... more This paper focuses on the differences in the levels of accessibility to public employment offices in the Spanish municipalities. Hence the main purpose is to evaluate the role of the public employment services in local labour markets by considering the physical distance to employment offices and the spatial structure of their catchment areas. First, we propose an accessibility measure and, second, we estimate a spatial model and test whether a higher accessibility to employment offices could contribute to reduce local unemployment rates. The results suggest that policy-makers should strive to improve the accessibility to employment offices so that adequate assistance to find suitable employment may be ensured to every jobseeker.

Información del artículo La dinámica sectorial y regional del empleo en la UE.

Resumen: This paper focuses on the differences in the levels of accessibily to public employment ... more Resumen: This paper focuses on the differences in the levels of accessibily to public employment offices in Spain. We use administrative data to explore the distribution of unemployed workers and local unemployment rates in the 8,109 Spanish municipalities in 2009.

Resumen: La política social y de empleo constituye una pieza clave de la denominada «Agenda de Li... more Resumen: La política social y de empleo constituye una pieza clave de la denominada «Agenda de Lisboa», encaminada a conseguir que la Unión Europea llegue a convertirse en la economía más competitiva del mundo y logre el pleno empleo en el horizonte 2010. En este contexto, la estrategia europea de empleo persigue la obtención de más y mejores empleos y la igualdad de oportunidades, teniendo en cuenta la dimensión territorial de la política de cohesión.

ERSA conference …, Jan 1, 2004

… , Dortmumd, August 27th …, Jan 1, 2002

fceye.ull.es

International Journal of Manpower, 2014

ERSA conference papers, 2006

Contemporary Economic Policy, 33, pp. 351-368., 2015

Revue d’Économie Régionale & Urbaine (Journal of Regional and Urban Economics), 2015

Defining the Spatial Scale in Modern Regional Analysis: New Challenges from Data at Local Level, 2012

Economics and Business Letters, 2014

Papers in Regional Science, Nov 2012

Información del artículo La dinámica sectorial y regional del empleo en la UE.

Small Business Economics

The dramatic growth of unemployment figures in Spain during the economic downturn has increased p... more The dramatic growth of unemployment figures in Spain during the economic downturn has increased policies fostering entrepreneurship, particularly among the youth. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of a Spanish programme fostering self-employment among unemployed youth workers. We use an administrative dataset (the Continuous Working Lives Sample) to study the survival of subsidized start-ups compared to those not subsidized. Using a differences-in-differences approach, our results suggest that the programme has no effect in terms of survival rates.

In transport economics, modeling modal choice is a fundamental key for policy makers trying to im... more In transport economics, modeling modal choice is a fundamental key for policy makers trying to improve the sustainability of transportation systems. However, existing empirical literature has focused on short- distance travel within urban systems. This paper contributes to the limited number of investigations on mode choice in medium- and long-distance travel. The main objective of this research is to study the impacts of socio-demographic and economic variables, land-use features and trip attributes on long-distance travel mode choice. Using data from 2007 Spanish National Mobility Survey we apply a multilevel multinomial logit model that accounts for the potential problem of spatial heterogeneity in order to explain long-distance travel mode choice. This approach permits us to compute how the probability of choosing among private car, bus and train varies depending on the traveler spatial location at regional level. Results indicate that travelers characteristics, trip features, cost of usage of transport modes and geographical variables have significant impacts on long-distance mode choice.

Revista de Economía Mundial - Journal of World Economy, Dec 31, 2014

Los sistemas de transportes y logística han estado estrechamente relacionados a las transformacio... more Los sistemas de transportes y logística han estado estrechamente relacionados a las transformaciones históricas en el comercio, la inversión y la movilidad del capital humano a escala mundial. La movilidad de personas y mercancías a lo largo del tiempo y el espacio (Díaz-Jara 2007), y la accesibilidad territorial han sido el núcleo central de los cambios estructurales de la economía y de la integración regional (Colomb y Santinha2014). Las oportunidades comerciales y de inversiones han sido, en gran medida, el resultado de transformaciones en las infraestructuras de transporte y de innovaciones en la logística que han permitido la movilidad y el acceso a los mercados y a recursos físicos y humanos. Una parte importante del flujo de actividad económica y social se deriva así de los sistemas de transportes y del desempeño logístico de las naciones, regiones y personas (Arviset al. 2012).Sin embargo, junto a su impacto positivo sobre la economía y la sociedad, los sistemas de transporte y comunicaciones también tienen efectos y externalidades negativas, tales como la congestión, la polución o los accidentes. Además, transporte y la logística constituyen un conglomerado de actividades comercialescon atributos operativos y técnicos propios,tales como los costos de transporte, capacidad, eficiencia, fiabilidad y velocidad. Los sistemas de transporte están evolucionando dentro de un conjunto de relaciones entre la oferta de servicios de transporte, dependiente de la infraestructura y la capacidad operativa de la red, y la demanda, que responde a las necesidades de movilidad y accesibilidad de bienes, servicios y recursos físicos y humanos.

Transportation infrastructure services may cause an impact on the economy of the region in which ... more Transportation infrastructure services may cause an impact on the economy of the region in which they are located and, additionally, they are likely to have an impact on other regions. This effect has been labeled the spillover effect. In this study, the existence of direct and spillover effects of road, railway, airport and seaport infrastructure projects is tested by estimating a production function. Together with this primary objective, two common concerns in the literature are addressed: the lack of theoretical foundations for spatial econometrics models and the likely endogenous relationship between transport infrastructure and economic development. The estimated production function takes the form of a Spatial Durbin Model and is estimated using panel data from the 47 peninsular Spanish provinces by alternatively applying a Maximum Likelihood estimator and Instrumental Variables/Generalized Method of Moments estimators. According to the estimates, road transport infrastructure positively affects the output of the region in which the infrastructure is located and its neighboring provinces, while the remaining modes of transportation projects cause no significant impacts on average.