Pierluigi Coppola | "Tor Vergata" University of Rome (original) (raw)

Papers by Pierluigi Coppola

This chapter presents an overview of the dual effects of the opening of the new HSR (300 Km/h) li... more This chapter presents an overview of the dual effects of the opening of the new HSR (300 Km/h) line in Italy, with a single operator between 2010 and 2012 and with the entry of a new operator since 2012. Before-and-after effects on supply, demand and prices are presented, allowing the analysis of the evolution of new HSR services on the multimodal intercity travel market as well as a first evaluation of the competition within a typically monopolistic market. Analyses are based on source data (laws and regulations, business plans, timetables, prices) as well as ad hoc extensive surveys, such as on-board counts on the high-speed and intercity trains, retrospective surveys, and revealed preference/stated preference (RP/SP) interviews., Results from an integrated modeling system developed to assess the effects of timetables/services/prices in terms of HSR and competing modes (air/ auto/railways) were used in the analyses.

European Transport Conference, 2010Association for European Transport (AET), 2010

Disp, Jun 1, 2013

The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with p... more The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content. This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden.

From Europe to US and to China, Governments and several PPP entrepreneurs are investing in develo... more From Europe to US and to China, Governments and several PPP entrepreneurs are investing in developing High Speed Railways (HSR) networks. In facts, HSR is world-wide acknowledged as a sustainable and efficient transportation mode for intercity medium-haul trips (i.e. 400-800 Km long), although empirical evidences show it could be attractive also for shorter trips (e.g. 150-200 Km long). In Italy major investments in High Speed Railways (HSR) have been carried out in the last decades resulting in a current network approximately 1300 Km long. The HSR service, started in 2005 between Rome and Naples, now includes several city pairs. The level of service is expected to be further improved with the completion of the new stations in Naples, Florence, Turin and Rome that will allow direct service avoiding calls at central stations in dense urban area, and, on the other hand, with the entrance in the HSR market of a new private operator (i.e. Nuovo Trasporto Viaggiatori- NTV), competing with the incumbent Trenitalia. These changes create the conditions in the Italian national transportation market, for a unique case study to investigate the behavior of long-distance passengers. The objective of this paper is twofold. In the first part, we present the results of a study on the HSR in Italy, giving a clear picture of what is the current scenario and what has been its evolution starting from the introduction of the HSR service on the National railways network (i.e. 2007). The analysis is based on longitudinal surveys carried out between years 2008 and 2011 and mathematical models aiming at estimating the impacts of HSR on the modal split, the trip frequency and the distribution of intercity trips, as well as of the changes induced on people lifestyles and land-use patterns. In the second part of the paper we review retrospectively the studies on HSR carried on in Italy dated back to the early Eighty’s, comparing those traffic forecasting to the observed current demand, using a back-casting technique. The review will start considering the modeling approach, the level of zoning of the study area and the segmentation of the demand. Moreover, it will take into consideration the assumptions on the growth of the National Economy and the relative elasticity of the intercity passenger demand; the assumptions on the development of the road network and of the evolution of the air transport and the competing alternative railways services. A specific emphasis will be given to the issue of the induced demand: whether or not it has been considered, and, if positive, how and to what extent.

11th World Conference on Transport ResearchWorld Conference on Transport Research Society, 2007

This paper aims at analyzing to what extent changing accessibility affects the distribution of re... more This paper aims at analyzing to what extent changing accessibility affects the distribution of residential and economic activities in a region. The study is carried out by mean of empirical and modeling analyses. The case study is that of the Regione Campania, one of the 20 administrative regions of Italy. The empirical study consists of before-and-after analyses correlating the variation of zone accessibility to the variation of population and other economic activities (Commerce, services, etc) over a 20 years long period. The results of the analyses carried on show that the impact of accessibility on the location of certain economic sectors is negligible (e.g. for Public services, Wholesale), while it is significant for Residents, Retail, Private Services location. In the latter case, however, it is evident that there are other factors affecting such location choice even stronger than accessibility (e.g. housing prices, congestion of the urban system, and so on). In order to deeper investigate such issues, an integrated modelling framework simulating land-use and transport interaction is proposed. The results of the aggregated calibration of the model parameters are presented and discussed in the paper.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE 7TH WORLD CONGRESS ON INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS, 2000

In this paper we present a doubly dynamic models system aiming at simulating the impacts of Advan... more In this paper we present a doubly dynamic models system aiming at simulating the impacts of Advanced Traveller Information Systems (ATIS) on pre-trip users' travel choices such as route and departure time and on network performances. The overall framework consists of three main sub-models. The travel behaviour simulator models the day-today choice updating model for different user classes (e.g. informed and non-informed). The within-day dynamic traffic simulator simulates the propagation of flows on the network and estimate network performances allowing for non-stationary conditions within the simulation period and random fluctuation of supply characteristics. Finally, the ATIS model aiming at generating real-time traffic information based on current network conditions. Supply/Demand interactions are simulated within a day-today dynamic process framework.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE AET EUROPEAN TRANSPORT CONFERENCE, HELD 10-12 SEPTEMBER, 2001, HOMERTON COLLEGE, CAMBRIDGE, UK - CD-ROM, 2001

"Tor Vergata" 1. INTRODUCTION That urban land use and transport are closely inter-linked is commo... more "Tor Vergata" 1. INTRODUCTION That urban land use and transport are closely inter-linked is common wisdom among planners and the public. In facts, that the spatial separation of human activities creates the need for travel and goods transport is the underlying principle of transport analysis and forecasting. Following this principle, it is easily understandable that the suburbanisation of cities is connected with increasing spatial division of labour, and hence with ever increasing mobility. The analysis of the impacts of land-use on the transportation system is wellestablished as well as the modelling approaches (e.g. the traditional fourstages model); on the other hand, the reverse impact from transport to land use, is less well known. In order to evaluate long-term impacts on travel demand due to changes in transport supply, it is not possible to disregard the impacts on land-use and, indirectly, on travel demand. The problem of simulating such effects has been tackled by different modelling approaches, labelled in literature as "integrated land-use/transport models" (Wilson, 1997). In this paper the focus is on the impacts that transport supply has on the distribution of urban activity locations (e.g. residents, services, commerce, etc) and, consequentially, on travel demand (e.g. spatial distribution, modal split and so on). The analysis is carried on by means of models dealing with the complex interactions between transportation and urban activities. With respect to other models present in literature, what actually is pointed out in the proposed modelling approach, is the transport component. The latter is typically represented in terms of generalised transportation cost, while here it is explicitly represented by means of demand models and transportation networks. Individual choices of residential and activity location are simulated through Random Utility Theory. The interaction between different individuals (i.e. residents, firms, etc) is simulated through a static (or equilibrium) approach. The latter seems more suitable for practical applications since equilibrium models are easier to be calibrated and implemented, with respect to more complex dynamic modelling framework (Simmonds, 2000). In order to provide the context, a review of studies on the impact of transport on land-use is described in section 2. Section 3 and 4 deal with the adopted modelling framework and its applications to the urban area of Rome (Italy) in order to predict the land use and the travel demand long-term variations induced by changes in transport supply system. The results of such applications are discussed and compared with those carried out by means of traditional four-stages demand model calibrated on the same urban area. Conclusions and further research issue are dealt with in section 5.

Research in Transportation Economics, 2011

In this paper we present an activitieselocation choice model with endogenous price which simulate... more In this paper we present an activitieselocation choice model with endogenous price which simulates, based on Expected Random Utility principle, the behaviour of several agents of the urban system (e.g. the workers distinguished by income, the firms by economic sector) to estimate the spatial distribution of socioeconomic activities within the study area as well as the impact of differential changes in accessibility on the dwelling price. The study area for this research is the metropolitan area of Napoli (South Italy), for which we show the results of the model estimation and the results of a "backcasting" analysis.

EUROPEAN TRANSPORT CONFERENCE 2008; PROCEEDINGS, 2008

Spatial developments over the past decades indicate a trend towards a more diffuse settlement pat... more Spatial developments over the past decades indicate a trend towards a more diffuse settlement pattern usually defined as urban sprawl (Bruinsma et al., 2008). In a number of countries national policies were set out to explicitly counter sprawl, but in most, sprawl has ...

IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Jun 1, 2011

This paper reports on some large-scale field-testing results of a real-time freeway network traff... more This paper reports on some large-scale field-testing results of a real-time freeway network traffic surveillance tool that has recently been developed to enable a number of real-time traffic surveillance tasks. This paper first introduces the related network traffic flow model and the approaches employed to traffic state estimation, traffic state prediction, and incident alarm. The field testing of the tool for these surveillance tasks in the A3 freeway of 100 km between Naples and Salerno in southern Italy is then reported in some detail. The results obtained are quite satisfactory and promising for further future implementations of the tool.

Transportation Research Record, 2015

The new 1,000 km of high-speed rail (HSR) line between Turin and Salerno, Italy, were completed i... more The new 1,000 km of high-speed rail (HSR) line between Turin and Salerno, Italy, were completed in 2009, and new service by the Italian railways state-owned company Trenitalia started in December of that year. Furthermore, in anticipation of the European open-access regulatory framework, starting from April 2012, the new HSR private operator Nuovo Trasporto Viaggiatori entered the market and is competing with the incumbent Trenitalia. This is the first case of large-scale competition between nonsubsidized HSR operators on the same line (i.e., infrastructure managed by the state-owned company, Rete Ferroviaria Italiana). This study provides an overview of the short-term dual effects of the opening of the new HSR line operating with a single service provider (between 2010 and 2012) and of the competition between the two operators starting from 2012. Before-and-after effects on services, prices, and attracted and generated demand based on several data sources, including ad hoc surveys and a system of mathematical models, are presented. Results suggest that the dual effect of new HSR lines and the opening of competition in the market has been producing a significant increase in HSR supply (+94% of trains per day) and demand (+98% of passenger-kilometers per year). The market share in the HSR core area increased about 20% at the expense of air and automobile modes. About 13.8 million extra trips per year were estimated in 2013 with respect to rail demand in 2009 (8.3 million diverted from other modes and 5.5 million induced trips) despite the severe economic crisis faced by the country in the same period.

Automatica, 2009

Real-data testing results of a real-time nonlinear freeway traffic state estimator are presented ... more Real-data testing results of a real-time nonlinear freeway traffic state estimator are presented with a particular focus on its adaptive features. The pursued general approach to the real-time adaptive estimation of complete traffic state in freeway stretches or networks is based on stochastic nonlinear macroscopic traffic flow modeling and extended Kalman filtering. One major innovative aspect of the estimator is the real-time joint estimation of traffic flow variables (flows, mean speeds, and densities) and some important model parameters (free speed, critical density, and capacity), which leads to four significant features of the traffic state estimator: (i) avoidance of prior model calibration; (ii) automatic adaptation to changing external conditions (e.g. weather and lighting conditions, traffic composition, control measures); (iii) enabling of incident alarms; (iv) enabling of detector fault alarms. The purpose of the reported real-data testing is, first, to demonstrate feature (i) by investigating some basic properties of the estimator and, second, to explore some adaptive capabilities of the estimator that enable features (ii)-(iv). The achieved testing results are quite satisfactory and promising for further work and field applications.

EURO Journal on Transportation and Logistics, Jun 1, 2012

High speed rail (HSR) represents the future of medium-haul intercity transport. In fact, a number... more High speed rail (HSR) represents the future of medium-haul intercity transport. In fact, a number of HSR projects are being developed all over the world despite the financial and economic crisis. Such large investments require reliable demand forecasting models to develop solid business plans aiming at optimizing the fares structures and the timetables (operational level) and, on the other hand, at exploring opportunities for new businesses in the long period (strategic level). In this paper, we present a models system developed to forecast the national passenger demand for different macroeconomic, transport supply, and HSR market scenarios. The core of the model is based on the simulation of the competition between transportation modes (i.e. air, auto, rail), railways services (intercity vs. high speed rail) and HSR operators, using an explicit representation of the timetables of all competing modes/services/runs (schedule-based assignment). This requires, in turn, a diachronic network representation of the transport supply for scheduled services and a nested logit model of mode, service, operator, and run choice. To authors' knowledge this represents the first case of elastic demand, schedule-based assignment model at national scale to forecast HSR demand. The overall modeling framework has been calibrated based on extensive traffic counts and mixed RP-SP interviews gathered between 2009 and 2011, on the Italian multimodal transportation system. The results of the models estimation are presented, and, some applications to test HSR service options (i.e. fares and timetable) of a new operator entering the HSR market and competing with the national incumbent are discussed.

It is a common belief that the integrated land use/transport planning policies are a means for ma... more It is a common belief that the integrated land use/transport planning policies are a means for maximising the benefits of investment in the Transport sectors, and for promoting the cohesion and the balanced territorial growth of the European cities, i.e. strategic planning objectives of the European Union. By integrated land use/transport policies is meant those policies which define the guidelines of the land use development together withthe mid- to long-term investments in transport infrastructures. A well-known example of integrated land use/transport policies is transit oriented development. Typically, these identify the area of development within a given area, to those places which have a very high accessibility to public transport. In doing so, it is expected that the modal split would change towards the transit modes and, accordingly, the negative externalities of the use of the car would decrease. In principle this is correct, but there could be cases in which counterintuitive and negative effects arise. For instance, when the objectives of a balanced territorial growth is achieved by locating some activities (e.g. an university or a business district) in a low accessible periphery of the city, the length and the duration of thetrips could increase over a threshold acceptable for the travellers. So, it is very important for the analyst to evaluate all the consequences of integrated land use/transport policies not only on the territorial variables, but also on the mobility (travel demand) and on the performance of the transportation system. A methodology to assess the benefits of integrated land use/transport policies is presented, based on a comprehensive modelling architecture consisting of three integrated modules. The travel demand module, which, given the land-use pattern and the level of service of transportation system, simulates individual travel choices (such as tour frequency, trip distribution and mode choice) enabling the estimation of generalized travel cost and zonal accessibility. The residential location modulewhich, given the generalized travel cost, the economic activities patternand the housing supply, simulates the residential location choice of eachworker of the study area. The activity location module which, given the accessibility of each zone and the residential location pattern estimates the amount of socioeconomic activities located in each zone. Then, two casestudies are presented where such a methodology has been applied: the cityof Rome and the Regione Campania, one of the 20 administrative Regions ofItaly. In both cases, but at different planning level (urban vs. regional) the Public Administration has been carrying on strategic policies to decongest the most crowded urban areas, relocating some administrative functions and the public services in those areas which, in the future, will be served by new high frequency railway services. The application of the proposed methodology has shown some interesting results and has allowed us to make some useful considerations for further strategic planning actions. Forthe covering abstract see ITRD E145999

It is well-known that timetables setting for a transit networks can affect, to a great extent, th... more It is well-known that timetables setting for a transit networks can affect, to a great extent, the quality, the effectiveness and the efficiency of the Public Transportation (PT) system, both on the users and on the operator perspectives. Thus, given the routes and frequencies of the transit lines the problem of generating a timetable consists of identifying the "optimal" departure time of a number of operating services on different lines in a given reference period, subject to constraints on vehicles and crew availability. It is worth to distinguish between the two cases of high-frequency and the low-frequency transit network. In the case of medium/low-frequency system (typically the case of ex-urban PT networks), the optimisation of timetable can highly reduce travellers waiting time and transfer time as well as can avoid overcrowded vehicles. In order to generate timetable in medium/low frequency systems, different model specifications have been proposed in the literature. These can be grouped in two main classes: one including models aiming at maximizing the number of simultaneous bus arrivals at the connection (transfer) nodes of the network another including models aiming at matching vehicles departure time with travellers desired departure and/or arrival time at stops. In both classes of models, path flows on the transit network are assumed to be invariant with respect to the timetable. In other words, it is not considered that a variation of the timetable can modify travelers path choices. The model formulation here presented, takes into consideration such feedback. In order to simulate how travelers choices vary with the timetable the schedule-based approach to dynamic transit network modeling is followed. This allows, on the supply side, an explicit time-space representation of the transit network, and, on the demand side, the simulation of travelers path choice depending on their desired departure time from origin. The model is based on a non-linear programming formulation in which the objective function to minimize is given by the total generalized cost perceived by travelers, that is the product of the path flows times the path generalized cost computed as the weighted sum of on-board time, transfer time, early and late scheduled delay. A bi-level algorithm is developed to solve the problem: at the first level timetable is generated by minimizing the objective function for a given pattern of path flow using an heuristic technique based on local search; at the second level, given the optimal timetable previously generated, the new path flows are estimated by means of a dynamic schedule based transit assignment model. This model is iterated until convergence is achieved. The efficiency of this algorithm is demonstrated through applications to different small-scale example networks. Preliminary results have shown significant reductions of the total generalized travel cost using the proposed model formulation. Finally, in the paper, an application to the realistic case study of the railways transit network of the metropolitan area of Naples (Italy) is illustrated. For the covering abstract please see ITRD E135207.

European Transport Conference, 2010Association for European Transport (AET), 2010

Disp, Jun 1, 2013

11th World Conference on Transport ResearchWorld Conference on Transport Research Society, 2007

PROCEEDINGS OF THE 7TH WORLD CONGRESS ON INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS, 2000

PROCEEDINGS OF THE AET EUROPEAN TRANSPORT CONFERENCE, HELD 10-12 SEPTEMBER, 2001, HOMERTON COLLEGE, CAMBRIDGE, UK - CD-ROM, 2001

Research in Transportation Economics, 2011

EUROPEAN TRANSPORT CONFERENCE 2008; PROCEEDINGS, 2008

IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Jun 1, 2011

Transportation Research Record, 2015

Automatica, 2009

EURO Journal on Transportation and Logistics, Jun 1, 2012

The paper fits into the themes of sustainable accessibility planning in urban areas, that can be ... more The paper fits into the themes of sustainable accessibility planning in urban areas, that can be defined as the integration of
transport and land use planning to achieve sustainable development. In particular the study proposes a tool to support the
choices of activities location, which is based on a new aggregate (zone-specific) indicator: the ‘Marginal Activity Access
Cost’, providing estimation in monetary terms of the impacts on mobility and on the environment of locating one new activity
in a specific zone of the urban area. The proposed indicator is validated through an application to the urban area of Rome.

The paper presents the ‘Marginal Activity Access Cost’, an accessibility indicator providing esti... more The paper presents the ‘Marginal Activity Access Cost’, an accessibility indicator providing estimation in monetary terms of the impacts on mobility and on the environment of locating a single new activity in a specific zone of the urban area. In the first part of this paper, the new indicator is presented and compared to other accessibility indicators proposed in literature. In the second part, the MAAC is validated through an application to the urban area of Rome. The paper concludes with brief remarks on using the proposed accessibility indicator as index of performance for sustainable spatial planning.

This paper investigates the relation between sustainability and urban form. To this aim a system ... more This paper investigates the relation between sustainability and urban form. To this aim a system of Land-Use and Transport Interactions (LUTI) models has been designed and applied to the metropolitan area of Rome, to understand the interdependence of key variables such as travel behavior, transport supply, property values, jobs and residential location. The models represent the behavior of both dwellers and transport users and how they react to changing conditions. A system of assessment indicators has been defined to systematically test and compare alternative scenarios of urban form and to evaluate to what extent different locations and density distributions of activities achieve sustainability in terms of transport performances, social and environmental impacts.

Gravity-Based Accessibility measures for Integrated Transport-land Use Planning (GraBAM), in Angela Hull, Cecília Silva and Luca Bertolini (Eds.) Accessibility Instruments for Planning Practice. COST Office, pp. 117-124., 2012

The paper fits into the general themes of land use - transport planning (Nuzzolo and Coppola, 200... more The paper fits into the general themes of land use - transport planning (Nuzzolo and Coppola, 2008a and 2008b) and accessibility (Geurs and van Wee 2004) in urban areas. It's widely recognized in academia the need for integration between mobility and land use policies in accordance with the objectives of environmental sustainability and quality of life in urban areas (Nuzzolo and Coppola, 2007; te Brömmelstroet and Bertolini, 2011). Furthermore, in recent years travel behaviours are changing in urban areas due to the increase in oil prices, the recession of Western economies, the resulting lack of financial resources for public transport subsidies. For this reasons, technicians and scientists are trying to find solutions in the short and long term to make existing transport system more efficient. In this sense the search for integrated solutions including systems engineering, transport and urban planning is a priority not only in the scientific debate but also in the operative field. Despite an extensive literature on the land use-transport interaction has been produced, simple tools for land - use transport integrated planning are not as much used; in particular tools that can support the choices of location of new activities in the definition of urban or regional plans are not widely applied (Hull et al. 2012).