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Papers by fabrizio coricelli
Social Science Research Network, 2002
PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), 2010
Price-wage dynamics and inflation in socialist economies
This article analyzes the determinants of open inflation in transitional socialist economies, wit... more This article analyzes the determinants of open inflation in transitional socialist economies, with reference to recent experience in Hungary and Poland. A simple inflation model is centered on the transmission process and on the short-run dynamics of inflation. Further incorporating a number of features specific to socialist economies and working with quarterly data, dynamic price, and wage equations are estimated. The estimated equations allow satisfactory exploration of the role and weight of foreign prices and domestic factors in propagating inflation. Foreign prices matter, but developments on the cost side are critical in relating exogenous, policy-driven adjustments to the price level to increases in the rate of inflation. The absence of conventional market-based, equilibrating mechanisms requires that nominal anchors, particularly wage restraints, feature prominently in any stabilization program adopted by reforming socialist economies. Copyright 1992 by Oxford University Press.
Focus on European Economic Integration, 2006
Exchange-Rate Policy in the Czech Republic: The Perils of Sticking to Fixed Exchange Rates
Springer eBooks, Aug 22, 2007
The stability of the Czech crown during the period 1991 to 1997 (during 1991 to 1993 the crown of... more The stability of the Czech crown during the period 1991 to 1997 (during 1991 to 1993 the crown of the former Czechoslovakia) was considered an example of success in maintaining macroeconomic stability in a period of radical economic changes. The budget deficit was under control throughout the transition, monetary policy was always prudent, inflation was among the lowest in transition
The ‘New Europe’ Household Lending Market
Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks, Nov 28, 2006
Exchange Rate Arrangements in Transition to EMU: Some Arguments in Favor of Early Adoption of the Euro
Springer eBooks, 2002
Central and East European countries (CEECs) in the process of accession to the European Union (EU... more Central and East European countries (CEECs) in the process of accession to the European Union (EU) face fundamental challenges to the conduct of macroeconomic policies. These countries are characterized by growth rates faster than those of EU countries and attendant large current account deficits. Fast productivity growth in the tradable sectors implies an equilibrium appreciation of the real exchange rate. Large current account deficits imply accumulation of foreign debt. Debt in these countries is already skewed toward foreign rather than toward domestic debt. Furthermore, in some cases, such as Poland, there is a large stock of foreign currency deposits. These factors expose countries to the adverse effects of exchange rate swings. The experience of emerging markets indicates that exchange rate flexibility ends up as being a straitjacket rather than a vehicle for more freedom in domestic policies or as a shock absorber. Exchange rate flexibility in a world of free capital movements tends to be associated with high interest rate spreads, high real interest rates, and vulnerability of the domestic economy and the financial sector to external shocks.
Price-Wage Dynamics and Inflation in Socialist Economies: Empirical Models for Hungary and Poland
The World Bank Economic Review, 1992
This article analyzes the determinants of open inflation in transitional socialist economies, wit... more This article analyzes the determinants of open inflation in transitional socialist economies, with reference to recent experience in Hungary and Poland. A simple inflation model is centered on the transmission process and on the short-run dynamics of inflation. Further incorporating a number of features specific to socialist economies and working with quarterly data, dynamic price, and wage equations are estimated. The estimated equations allow satisfactory exploration of the role and weight of foreign prices and domestic factors in propagating inflation. Foreign prices matter, but developments on the cost side are critical in relating exogenous, policy-driven adjustments to the price level to increases in the rate of inflation. The absence of conventional market-based, equilibrating mechanisms requires that nominal anchors, particularly wage restraints, feature prominently in any stabilization program adopted by reforming socialist economies. Copyright 1992 by Oxford University Press.
Journal of Comparative Economics, Dec 1, 2001
Social Science Research Network, 2022
Deep Blue (University of Michigan), Sep 1, 2008
Dealing with enterprises' bad loans
Economics of Transition, 1993
... deal with bad loans. Swapping all state enterprise loans - good and bad - for Treasury bills ... more ... deal with bad loans. Swapping all state enterprise loans - good and bad - for Treasury bills is likely to have serious fiscal implications in the short run (see Begg and Portes, 1992; Levine and Scott 1992). In present value terms ...
Inter-enterprise arrears in economies in transition
Empirica, Feb 1, 1994
ABSTRACT
Social Science Research Network, 2006
The MIT Press eBooks, 2004
Social Science Research Network, 2000
Social Science Research Network, 2014
EU Membership or Thatcher's Structural Reforms: What Drove the Great British Reversal?
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Feb 1, 2017
This paper presents a dissonant view on post-war British economic performance. A defining feature... more This paper presents a dissonant view on post-war British economic performance. A defining feature is the decline of the UK relative to the six founding members of the European Union after 1945. However, this relative decline stopped. The conventional view is that a turning point occurs in the mid-1980s when Mrs Thatcher implements far-reaching structural reforms. This paper asks whether econometric evidence supports this conventional view and finds it does not. We then examine an alternative hypothesis: this turning point occurs around 1970 when the UK joined the European Community. We find strong econometric support for this view. The intuition we offer is that EU membership signalled the prominence of business groups that chose to compete at the high-tech end of the common European market against those business groups that preferred comparative advantage driven Commonwealth markets (mostly former colonies). Those pro-Europe business groups later become the constituency that provides support for Mrs Thatcher's reforms. Without this vital support, we argue, Mrs Thatcher's structural reforms would not have been nearly as effective, if proposed and implemented at all.
Social Science Research Network, 2002
PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), 2010
Price-wage dynamics and inflation in socialist economies
This article analyzes the determinants of open inflation in transitional socialist economies, wit... more This article analyzes the determinants of open inflation in transitional socialist economies, with reference to recent experience in Hungary and Poland. A simple inflation model is centered on the transmission process and on the short-run dynamics of inflation. Further incorporating a number of features specific to socialist economies and working with quarterly data, dynamic price, and wage equations are estimated. The estimated equations allow satisfactory exploration of the role and weight of foreign prices and domestic factors in propagating inflation. Foreign prices matter, but developments on the cost side are critical in relating exogenous, policy-driven adjustments to the price level to increases in the rate of inflation. The absence of conventional market-based, equilibrating mechanisms requires that nominal anchors, particularly wage restraints, feature prominently in any stabilization program adopted by reforming socialist economies. Copyright 1992 by Oxford University Press.
Focus on European Economic Integration, 2006
Exchange-Rate Policy in the Czech Republic: The Perils of Sticking to Fixed Exchange Rates
Springer eBooks, Aug 22, 2007
The stability of the Czech crown during the period 1991 to 1997 (during 1991 to 1993 the crown of... more The stability of the Czech crown during the period 1991 to 1997 (during 1991 to 1993 the crown of the former Czechoslovakia) was considered an example of success in maintaining macroeconomic stability in a period of radical economic changes. The budget deficit was under control throughout the transition, monetary policy was always prudent, inflation was among the lowest in transition
The ‘New Europe’ Household Lending Market
Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks, Nov 28, 2006
Exchange Rate Arrangements in Transition to EMU: Some Arguments in Favor of Early Adoption of the Euro
Springer eBooks, 2002
Central and East European countries (CEECs) in the process of accession to the European Union (EU... more Central and East European countries (CEECs) in the process of accession to the European Union (EU) face fundamental challenges to the conduct of macroeconomic policies. These countries are characterized by growth rates faster than those of EU countries and attendant large current account deficits. Fast productivity growth in the tradable sectors implies an equilibrium appreciation of the real exchange rate. Large current account deficits imply accumulation of foreign debt. Debt in these countries is already skewed toward foreign rather than toward domestic debt. Furthermore, in some cases, such as Poland, there is a large stock of foreign currency deposits. These factors expose countries to the adverse effects of exchange rate swings. The experience of emerging markets indicates that exchange rate flexibility ends up as being a straitjacket rather than a vehicle for more freedom in domestic policies or as a shock absorber. Exchange rate flexibility in a world of free capital movements tends to be associated with high interest rate spreads, high real interest rates, and vulnerability of the domestic economy and the financial sector to external shocks.
Price-Wage Dynamics and Inflation in Socialist Economies: Empirical Models for Hungary and Poland
The World Bank Economic Review, 1992
This article analyzes the determinants of open inflation in transitional socialist economies, wit... more This article analyzes the determinants of open inflation in transitional socialist economies, with reference to recent experience in Hungary and Poland. A simple inflation model is centered on the transmission process and on the short-run dynamics of inflation. Further incorporating a number of features specific to socialist economies and working with quarterly data, dynamic price, and wage equations are estimated. The estimated equations allow satisfactory exploration of the role and weight of foreign prices and domestic factors in propagating inflation. Foreign prices matter, but developments on the cost side are critical in relating exogenous, policy-driven adjustments to the price level to increases in the rate of inflation. The absence of conventional market-based, equilibrating mechanisms requires that nominal anchors, particularly wage restraints, feature prominently in any stabilization program adopted by reforming socialist economies. Copyright 1992 by Oxford University Press.
Journal of Comparative Economics, Dec 1, 2001
Social Science Research Network, 2022
Deep Blue (University of Michigan), Sep 1, 2008
Dealing with enterprises' bad loans
Economics of Transition, 1993
... deal with bad loans. Swapping all state enterprise loans - good and bad - for Treasury bills ... more ... deal with bad loans. Swapping all state enterprise loans - good and bad - for Treasury bills is likely to have serious fiscal implications in the short run (see Begg and Portes, 1992; Levine and Scott 1992). In present value terms ...
Inter-enterprise arrears in economies in transition
Empirica, Feb 1, 1994
ABSTRACT
Social Science Research Network, 2006
The MIT Press eBooks, 2004
Social Science Research Network, 2000
Social Science Research Network, 2014
EU Membership or Thatcher's Structural Reforms: What Drove the Great British Reversal?
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Feb 1, 2017
This paper presents a dissonant view on post-war British economic performance. A defining feature... more This paper presents a dissonant view on post-war British economic performance. A defining feature is the decline of the UK relative to the six founding members of the European Union after 1945. However, this relative decline stopped. The conventional view is that a turning point occurs in the mid-1980s when Mrs Thatcher implements far-reaching structural reforms. This paper asks whether econometric evidence supports this conventional view and finds it does not. We then examine an alternative hypothesis: this turning point occurs around 1970 when the UK joined the European Community. We find strong econometric support for this view. The intuition we offer is that EU membership signalled the prominence of business groups that chose to compete at the high-tech end of the common European market against those business groups that preferred comparative advantage driven Commonwealth markets (mostly former colonies). Those pro-Europe business groups later become the constituency that provides support for Mrs Thatcher's reforms. Without this vital support, we argue, Mrs Thatcher's structural reforms would not have been nearly as effective, if proposed and implemented at all.