Guillaume Gaulier | Université Paris 1 - Panthéon-Sorbonne (original) (raw)
Papers by Guillaume Gaulier
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
The gains in market share recorded by exporters from the South over the period 1995-2002 are all ... more The gains in market share recorded by exporters from the South over the period 1995-2002 are all the more remarkable given the unfavourable sectoral structure of global import demand. The use of bilateral and sectoral data makes it possible to distinguish the trade performance which may be directly attributed to exporters and that which follows from the positions they have
La Lettre du CEPII, 1999
Successive cycles of multilateral trade negotiations carried out within the GATT have led to a st... more Successive cycles of multilateral trade negotiations carried out within the GATT have led to a strong reduction in tariff barriers to trade within the industrialised countries. The benefits which these countries can still anticipate from the suppression of essentially non-tariff barriers to ...
Since 1997, strong growth of the French economy has also generated much employment. Such a trend,... more Since 1997, strong growth of the French economy has also generated much employment. Such a trend, which reflects the deceleration of productivity growth, could be worrying were it to affect competitiveness. However, productivity growth in manufacturing industry, which is especially exposed to international competition, appears to have maintained a constant level since the 1970s. From this point of view, comparisons
China, which since the 1980s has developed a dynamic export sector in order to drive its economic... more China, which since the 1980s has developed a dynamic export sector in order to drive its economic development, was hit hard by the collapse in global demand in late 2008. This episode revealed the fragility of the Chinese growth model, which is currently at a crossroads, not only as a result of the global context but also owing to the
The paper analyses the rapid progress and the consequences of China's integration in Asian pr... more The paper analyses the rapid progress and the consequences of China's integration in Asian production networks. International processing activities, based on Asian inputs and mainly carried out by Asian affiliates have been the engine of China's trade expansion in the nineties. China's position in « triangular trade », characterised by deficits with Asia in intermediate goods and surpluses with "Western"
Modern international trade theories show that the nature of the specialization of a country is no... more Modern international trade theories show that the nature of the specialization of a country is non-neutral on its growth performances. However, most empirical studies concentrate on the relation between growth and trade openness at the macroeconomic level, i.e. without taking into account potential specialization effects. A rough examination of the data suggests that the growth performance of economies is not
Cet article presente une methode d'evaluation de l'ouverture commerciale applicable au ni... more Cet article presente une methode d'evaluation de l'ouverture commerciale applicable au niveau de marches elementaires (plus de 5000 produits et 200 pays). Les barrieres aux echanges sont identifiees grace a un indicateur de discrimination commerciale revelee. Cette mesure tire parti des distorsions dans la structure par fournisseurs sur chaque marche d'importation.
The gains in market share recorded by exporters from the South over the period 1995-2002 are all ... more The gains in market share recorded by exporters from the South over the period 1995-2002 are all the more remarkable given the unfavourable sectoral structure of global import demand. The use of bilateral and sectoral data makes it possible to distinguish the trade performance which may be directly attributed to exporters and that which follows from the positions they have
Export and import price indices are useful instruments in international economics. We document he... more Export and import price indices are useful instruments in international economics. We document here TradePrices, our database of aggregated and sectoral trade price indices for all countries, computed using unit values given by BACI, the CEPII’s database of international trade at the product-level covering the period 1995-2004. Its rich country dimension allow an international comparison of prices evolutions. We compute
The link between regional integration and intra-industry trade (IIT) has been under scrutiny sinc... more The link between regional integration and intra-industry trade (IIT) has been under scrutiny since it has been first suggested by the European integration process. However, the lack of reliable data and the difficulty to find a robust model for IIT made this relationship difficult to prove. This paper tackles this issue using an harmonised dataset at the most detailed level
This paper documents the construction of BACI, our international trade database, which covers mor... more This paper documents the construction of BACI, our international trade database, which covers more than 200 countries and 5,000 products, between 1994 and 2007. New approaches have been developed to reconcile data reported by almost 150 countries to the United Nations Statistics Division, collated via COMTRADE. When both exporting and importing countries report to Comtrade, we have two different figures
We develop an improved shift-share methodology and employ it to estimate the trade competitivenes... more We develop an improved shift-share methodology and employ it to estimate the trade competitiveness of 88 world countries during the 1995-2002 period and to identify factors that drove each country’s increase or drop in exports market share. Along with the export competitiveness, we consider the geographical and sectoral dimension of countries’ initial position on different import markets and of their
Économie & prévision, 2003
... AuteursGuillaume Gaulier[(*] [ CEPII. E-mail : G Gaulier@cepii. fr ... suitedu même auteur. .... more ... AuteursGuillaume Gaulier[(*] [ CEPII. E-mail : G Gaulier@cepii. fr ... suitedu même auteur. ... 37 La β-convergence est une condition nécessaire, mais non suffisante, à la σ - convergence[18] [18] Voir Hénin et Le Pen (1995) pour la démonstration du lien... suite. ...
A recurrent theme from politicians and commentators alike is that Canada is too exposed to the U.... more A recurrent theme from politicians and commentators alike is that Canada is too exposed to the U.S. economy and could benefit from diversifying its trade pattern. In this paper we examine the validity of these calls in a context of world demographic changes. Although population ageing in Canada is expected to have a negative impact on welfare, international trade should prop up real consumption per capita through terms of trade improvements during the first half of the 21st century. This reflects a population ageing gap between Canada and many of its trading partners with younger populations whose demographic projections entail relatively smaller negative supply shocks and lesser relative price increases. The gains resulting from the globalization of trade flows might be intensified through an accurate pattern of North-South trade diversification that takes into account the extent and timing of population ageing in diverse regions of the world. The main policy implication of this an...
Revue d'économie politique, 2012
Between 1995 and 2007, the volume of world trade grew by an annual average of over 6%, twice as f... more Between 1995 and 2007, the volume of world trade grew by an annual average of over 6%, twice as fast as global production. During this period, two categories of countries increased their share in world exports 1 (see box and table 1): "emerging economies", being exporters of manufactured goods and services, which accounted for 27% of the exports of goods in 2007 (+12 points on 1995); "rentier" states, being exporters of commodities, which accounted for 13% of global exports (+4.5 points). These two categories of countries follow different patterns of integration into the international trade. The progress in the export of manufactured goods from emerging countries, among which China is the leader, is attributable to the intense international division of production processes between "rich" and low-wage countries. The strong growth experienced by emerging countries helped to boost world demand and the price of commodities which, in turn, stimulated the increase of rentier state exports (in value more than volume).
Mots clés : crise fi nancière, commerce international, déséquilibres mondiaux, marges intensives ... more Mots clés : crise fi nancière, commerce international, déséquilibres mondiaux, marges intensives et extensives, protectionnisme, pays émergents Codes JEL : F02, F10, G01 Après la chute du commerce mondial observée fi n 2008-début 2009, qui a été à la fois massive, soudaine et généralisée, un rebond est intervenu. La question de la pérennité de ce rebond a été débattue lors d'une conférence co-organisée par la Banque de France (BdF), l'École d'économie de Paris (PSE G-MonD) et le Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales (CEPII). Si les efforts de l'Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) pour apaiser les tensions entre pays ont permis de limiter les mesures protectionnistes et de faire respecter les règles multilatérales, l'économie mondiale a fait toutefois preuve d'une grande fragilité car il est devenu plus diffi cile pour un pays de compter sur ses partenaires, également touchés par la crise globale, pour stabiliser la production. En outre, le déséquilibre persistant des échanges entre pays excédentaires, comme la Chine ou l'Allemagne, et pays défi citaires, comme les États-Unis, semble se creuser à nouveau après avoir marqué le pas quelques mois, les écarts de compétitivité industrielle se combinant à des désajustements macroéconomiques (déséquilibre épargne-investissement). La trop forte dépendance des pays africains aux exportations de matières premières qui constituent souvent leur principale source de devises a été soulignée. La relative faiblesse des systèmes fi nanciers des pays africains a par ailleurs été un facteur aggravant pour les exportateurs. Tous ces facteurs pèsent sur une forte reprise des échanges : le commerce mondial, qui croissait deux fois plus vite que le PIB avant la crise, ne retrouvera pas nécessairement son dynamisme antérieur. NB : Le programme et les articles présentés peuvent être trouvés en ligne à l'adresse : http://www.banque-france.fr/gb/publications/seminaires/articles-presentes-After-the-collapsethe-reshaping-of-trade.htm.
Although economists have long stressed the limitations of using GDP to evaluate standards of livi... more Although economists have long stressed the limitations of using GDP to evaluate standards of living, the debate was recently reignited by the publication of the Stiglitz report. In 2006, the CEPII proposed an indicator incorporating certain social data items, in terms of equivalent incomes, such as leisure time, poverty associated with unemployment, longevity and size of households; this indicator takes also account of inequalities, exhaustion of natural resources, deterioration of the environment and consumption of fixed capital. In this Letter, we propose to update this indicator and above all to extend it to cover the major emerging countries. Our calculations reveal significant corrections. Generally speaking, however, aside from the fact that the size of families is now taken into account, the various corrections applied make hardly any difference to the country rankings. Overall, the same countries still suffer from low income per inhabitant, serious inequalities, a high death rate and a lack of time devoted to leisure activities.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
The gains in market share recorded by exporters from the South over the period 1995-2002 are all ... more The gains in market share recorded by exporters from the South over the period 1995-2002 are all the more remarkable given the unfavourable sectoral structure of global import demand. The use of bilateral and sectoral data makes it possible to distinguish the trade performance which may be directly attributed to exporters and that which follows from the positions they have
La Lettre du CEPII, 1999
Successive cycles of multilateral trade negotiations carried out within the GATT have led to a st... more Successive cycles of multilateral trade negotiations carried out within the GATT have led to a strong reduction in tariff barriers to trade within the industrialised countries. The benefits which these countries can still anticipate from the suppression of essentially non-tariff barriers to ...
Since 1997, strong growth of the French economy has also generated much employment. Such a trend,... more Since 1997, strong growth of the French economy has also generated much employment. Such a trend, which reflects the deceleration of productivity growth, could be worrying were it to affect competitiveness. However, productivity growth in manufacturing industry, which is especially exposed to international competition, appears to have maintained a constant level since the 1970s. From this point of view, comparisons
China, which since the 1980s has developed a dynamic export sector in order to drive its economic... more China, which since the 1980s has developed a dynamic export sector in order to drive its economic development, was hit hard by the collapse in global demand in late 2008. This episode revealed the fragility of the Chinese growth model, which is currently at a crossroads, not only as a result of the global context but also owing to the
The paper analyses the rapid progress and the consequences of China's integration in Asian pr... more The paper analyses the rapid progress and the consequences of China's integration in Asian production networks. International processing activities, based on Asian inputs and mainly carried out by Asian affiliates have been the engine of China's trade expansion in the nineties. China's position in « triangular trade », characterised by deficits with Asia in intermediate goods and surpluses with "Western"
Modern international trade theories show that the nature of the specialization of a country is no... more Modern international trade theories show that the nature of the specialization of a country is non-neutral on its growth performances. However, most empirical studies concentrate on the relation between growth and trade openness at the macroeconomic level, i.e. without taking into account potential specialization effects. A rough examination of the data suggests that the growth performance of economies is not
Cet article presente une methode d'evaluation de l'ouverture commerciale applicable au ni... more Cet article presente une methode d'evaluation de l'ouverture commerciale applicable au niveau de marches elementaires (plus de 5000 produits et 200 pays). Les barrieres aux echanges sont identifiees grace a un indicateur de discrimination commerciale revelee. Cette mesure tire parti des distorsions dans la structure par fournisseurs sur chaque marche d'importation.
The gains in market share recorded by exporters from the South over the period 1995-2002 are all ... more The gains in market share recorded by exporters from the South over the period 1995-2002 are all the more remarkable given the unfavourable sectoral structure of global import demand. The use of bilateral and sectoral data makes it possible to distinguish the trade performance which may be directly attributed to exporters and that which follows from the positions they have
Export and import price indices are useful instruments in international economics. We document he... more Export and import price indices are useful instruments in international economics. We document here TradePrices, our database of aggregated and sectoral trade price indices for all countries, computed using unit values given by BACI, the CEPII’s database of international trade at the product-level covering the period 1995-2004. Its rich country dimension allow an international comparison of prices evolutions. We compute
The link between regional integration and intra-industry trade (IIT) has been under scrutiny sinc... more The link between regional integration and intra-industry trade (IIT) has been under scrutiny since it has been first suggested by the European integration process. However, the lack of reliable data and the difficulty to find a robust model for IIT made this relationship difficult to prove. This paper tackles this issue using an harmonised dataset at the most detailed level
This paper documents the construction of BACI, our international trade database, which covers mor... more This paper documents the construction of BACI, our international trade database, which covers more than 200 countries and 5,000 products, between 1994 and 2007. New approaches have been developed to reconcile data reported by almost 150 countries to the United Nations Statistics Division, collated via COMTRADE. When both exporting and importing countries report to Comtrade, we have two different figures
We develop an improved shift-share methodology and employ it to estimate the trade competitivenes... more We develop an improved shift-share methodology and employ it to estimate the trade competitiveness of 88 world countries during the 1995-2002 period and to identify factors that drove each country’s increase or drop in exports market share. Along with the export competitiveness, we consider the geographical and sectoral dimension of countries’ initial position on different import markets and of their
Économie & prévision, 2003
... AuteursGuillaume Gaulier[(*] [ CEPII. E-mail : G Gaulier@cepii. fr ... suitedu même auteur. .... more ... AuteursGuillaume Gaulier[(*] [ CEPII. E-mail : G Gaulier@cepii. fr ... suitedu même auteur. ... 37 La β-convergence est une condition nécessaire, mais non suffisante, à la σ - convergence[18] [18] Voir Hénin et Le Pen (1995) pour la démonstration du lien... suite. ...
A recurrent theme from politicians and commentators alike is that Canada is too exposed to the U.... more A recurrent theme from politicians and commentators alike is that Canada is too exposed to the U.S. economy and could benefit from diversifying its trade pattern. In this paper we examine the validity of these calls in a context of world demographic changes. Although population ageing in Canada is expected to have a negative impact on welfare, international trade should prop up real consumption per capita through terms of trade improvements during the first half of the 21st century. This reflects a population ageing gap between Canada and many of its trading partners with younger populations whose demographic projections entail relatively smaller negative supply shocks and lesser relative price increases. The gains resulting from the globalization of trade flows might be intensified through an accurate pattern of North-South trade diversification that takes into account the extent and timing of population ageing in diverse regions of the world. The main policy implication of this an...
Revue d'économie politique, 2012
Between 1995 and 2007, the volume of world trade grew by an annual average of over 6%, twice as f... more Between 1995 and 2007, the volume of world trade grew by an annual average of over 6%, twice as fast as global production. During this period, two categories of countries increased their share in world exports 1 (see box and table 1): "emerging economies", being exporters of manufactured goods and services, which accounted for 27% of the exports of goods in 2007 (+12 points on 1995); "rentier" states, being exporters of commodities, which accounted for 13% of global exports (+4.5 points). These two categories of countries follow different patterns of integration into the international trade. The progress in the export of manufactured goods from emerging countries, among which China is the leader, is attributable to the intense international division of production processes between "rich" and low-wage countries. The strong growth experienced by emerging countries helped to boost world demand and the price of commodities which, in turn, stimulated the increase of rentier state exports (in value more than volume).
Mots clés : crise fi nancière, commerce international, déséquilibres mondiaux, marges intensives ... more Mots clés : crise fi nancière, commerce international, déséquilibres mondiaux, marges intensives et extensives, protectionnisme, pays émergents Codes JEL : F02, F10, G01 Après la chute du commerce mondial observée fi n 2008-début 2009, qui a été à la fois massive, soudaine et généralisée, un rebond est intervenu. La question de la pérennité de ce rebond a été débattue lors d'une conférence co-organisée par la Banque de France (BdF), l'École d'économie de Paris (PSE G-MonD) et le Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales (CEPII). Si les efforts de l'Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) pour apaiser les tensions entre pays ont permis de limiter les mesures protectionnistes et de faire respecter les règles multilatérales, l'économie mondiale a fait toutefois preuve d'une grande fragilité car il est devenu plus diffi cile pour un pays de compter sur ses partenaires, également touchés par la crise globale, pour stabiliser la production. En outre, le déséquilibre persistant des échanges entre pays excédentaires, comme la Chine ou l'Allemagne, et pays défi citaires, comme les États-Unis, semble se creuser à nouveau après avoir marqué le pas quelques mois, les écarts de compétitivité industrielle se combinant à des désajustements macroéconomiques (déséquilibre épargne-investissement). La trop forte dépendance des pays africains aux exportations de matières premières qui constituent souvent leur principale source de devises a été soulignée. La relative faiblesse des systèmes fi nanciers des pays africains a par ailleurs été un facteur aggravant pour les exportateurs. Tous ces facteurs pèsent sur une forte reprise des échanges : le commerce mondial, qui croissait deux fois plus vite que le PIB avant la crise, ne retrouvera pas nécessairement son dynamisme antérieur. NB : Le programme et les articles présentés peuvent être trouvés en ligne à l'adresse : http://www.banque-france.fr/gb/publications/seminaires/articles-presentes-After-the-collapsethe-reshaping-of-trade.htm.
Although economists have long stressed the limitations of using GDP to evaluate standards of livi... more Although economists have long stressed the limitations of using GDP to evaluate standards of living, the debate was recently reignited by the publication of the Stiglitz report. In 2006, the CEPII proposed an indicator incorporating certain social data items, in terms of equivalent incomes, such as leisure time, poverty associated with unemployment, longevity and size of households; this indicator takes also account of inequalities, exhaustion of natural resources, deterioration of the environment and consumption of fixed capital. In this Letter, we propose to update this indicator and above all to extend it to cover the major emerging countries. Our calculations reveal significant corrections. Generally speaking, however, aside from the fact that the size of families is now taken into account, the various corrections applied make hardly any difference to the country rankings. Overall, the same countries still suffer from low income per inhabitant, serious inequalities, a high death rate and a lack of time devoted to leisure activities.