Carlos Caldarelli | Universidade Estadual de Londrina (original) (raw)

Papers by Carlos Caldarelli

Dynamic hedging effectiveness for soybean farmers in Rondonópolis (MT) with futures contracts of... more Dynamic hedging effectiveness for soybean farmers in Rondonópolis (MT) with futures contracts of BM&F is calculated through optimal hedge determination, using the bivariate GARCH BEKK model, which considers the conditional correlations of the prices series, comparing the results with the minimum variance model effectiveness, calculated by OLS, the unhedged and the naïve hedge positions. The financial effectiveness of the dynamic

Avaliação do desempenho dos novos instrumentos de política de garantia de preços agrícolas de 200... more Avaliação do desempenho dos novos instrumentos de política de garantia de preços agrícolas de 2004 a 2007 Grupo de Pesquisa 1: Comercialização, mercados e preços. Resumo -O objetivo deste artigo é avaliar o desempenho dos instrumentos da Política de Garantia de Preços Agrícolas (PGPA), criados a partir de 2004, em termos de produtos e regiões. Os contratos de opção privada que começaram a ser criados a partir de 2004 possuem característica de transferir à iniciativa privada a responsabilidade de abastecer áreas previamente determinadas. O PEPRO -Prêmio para Escoamento em Opção Privada, o PROP -Prêmio de Risco para Opção Privada e o PESOJA -Prêmio de Risco para a Soja, constituem os novos instrumentos para operacionalização da PGPA. Esse trabalho avaliou o dinamismo destes em comparação com os já existentes. Observou-se que os novos instrumentos, assim como os já operantes, se mostraram concentrados por cultura e por estado. Se concentrando em produtos voltados ao mercado e em produtos nos quais os mercados são organizados, tais como: soja, milho e algodão. Os produtos beneficiados têm ainda característica de possuírem elasticidade preço da demanda alta. Quanto à concentração por Estado, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás e Bahia apresentaram maior volume negociado. Palavras-chave: Comercialização, sustentação de preços, política de garantia de preços agrícolas. Abstract: This paper analyzes the performance of new Agricultural Price Support Policies (PGPA) created since 2004, by different products and regions. The contracts of private option, which had been started since 2004, have characteristic that transfer to the private initiative the responsibility to supply previously definitive areas. The PEPRO

Organizacoes Rurais Agroindustriais, Jan 6, 2015

RESUMO Objetiva-se, neste artigo, caracterizar o perfil exportador do agronegócio do estado de Ma... more RESUMO Objetiva-se, neste artigo, caracterizar o perfil exportador do agronegócio do estado de Mato Grosso do Sul, identificar quais segmentos possuem vantagens comparativas reveladas -competitividade -, quem são os parceiros mais representativos, assim como o tipo de comércio que se realiza. A metodologia utilizada permitiu avaliar, a partir de dados ex post, o desempenho competitivo dos segmentos do agronegócio, assim como os pontos fortes, fracos e neutros nas relações comerciais do Estado. Foram utilizados os índices: Gini-Hirschman; vantagem comparativa revelada (VCR); contribuição para o saldo comercial (CS); taxa de cobertura (TC) e comércio intraindústria (ICI). Os resultados mostraram que as exportações possuem uma forte dependência do agronegócio, com predominância dos segmentos carnes, complexo soja, complexo sucroalcooleiro e celulose. As exportações apresentam crescimento nos últimos quinze anos, porém a predominância dos segmentos do agronegócio vem sendo reduzida, nos últimos anos. O estudo permite concluir que importantes segmentos para o agronegócio do Estado apresentam elevada contribuição para o saldo comercial, entretanto, a baixa competitividade (VCR), sinaliza necessidade de investimentos nesses setores para um bom desempenho de Mato Grosso do Sul no comércio exterior.

Resumo O presente artigo tem por objetivo analisar o comportamento da balança comercial brasileir... more Resumo
O presente artigo tem por objetivo analisar o comportamento da balança comercial brasileira no período de 2000 a 2014. Procura-se compreender os fatores principais que contribuíram de forma positiva para a evolução do saldo: o crescimento dos preços, a demanda externa das commodities e o crescimento da economia mundial. A análise dos resultados destaca o desempenho das exportações do país em um contexto de taxa de câmbio flexível, frente a movimentos de apreciação e depreciação da moeda doméstica durante o período de estudo. Os resultados encontrados demonstram que as empresas exportadoras brasileiras parecem ser beneficiadas por períodos de apreciação cambial. Além disso, demonstrou-se que a pauta exportadora do país está cada vez mais concentrada em produtos básicos, o que pode ser prejudicial ao seu dinamismo no futuro.
Palavras-chave
Exportações, Desempenho Comercial, Taxa de câmbio.
Abstract
This article aims to analyze the Brazilian's trade balance behavior, in the period from 2000 to 2014. Tried to understand the main factors that contributed positively to the evolution of the balance: the price’s growth, external demand for commodities and the world economy’s growth. The analysis highlights the export performance of the country in a context of flexible exchange rate, compared to movements of appreciation and depreciation of the domestic currency during the study period. The results show that Brazilian industries exporters seem to be benefited by periods of currency appreciation. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that the country’s export list is increasingly concentrated in basic products, which may be detrimental to its momentum in the future.

Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural, Sep 2013

This paper investigates the ratio between real exchange rate and chicken meat prices in Brazil, f... more This paper investigates the ratio between real exchange rate and chicken meat prices in Brazil, from 2008 to 2012. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was applied. The results show a long-run ratio between the real exchange rate and the frozen broiler price – cointegration. However, evidences of the chicken meat price sensibility to the exchange rate are weak for the analyzed period. On the other hand, the paper suggests the evidence of the commodity currency. The paper highlights the importance of analyzing effects of the frozen chick meat on exchange rate in Brazil in the recent period.

This study aims to analyze Paraná 's municipal development in the years 2000, 2005 and 2010, to v... more This study aims to analyze Paraná 's municipal development in the years 2000, 2005 and 2010, to verify the presence of spatial autocorrelation and cluster formation among its municipalities. As development indicator index FIRJAN Municipal Development - IFDM was used considering the aggregate: employ / income, education and health. Carried out the descriptive statistical analysis of the evolution of IFDM and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) to verify the existence of spatial correlation and identification of cities' cluster developed and undeveloped. The present study concluded that the municipal development, using the data from the IFDM, showed improvement, not only in the State but also in most municipalities, both for the overall index Education and Health. Regarding the spatial analysis of the data it was found that spatial autocorrelation exists and it is positive for all years studied. In the three years analyzed, clusters development is distributed in three regions: North Central, West, and Metropolitan Curitiba. Clusters of underdevelopment were distributed in central and eastern state.

Organizações Rurais & Agroindustriais (Lavras), Jul 2009

The soy agroindustry complex in Brazil and in Paraná state: exportations and competitiveness from... more The soy agroindustry complex in Brazil and in Paraná state: exportations and competitiveness from 1990 to 2007 RESUMO A sojicultura brasileira tem apresentado resultados promissores nos últimos anos, assumindo papel atuante na pauta de exportações brasileiras. O presente artigo analisa o comportamento das exportações de soja e derivados, para o Brasil e Paraná, no período de 1990 até 2007. Os procedimentos metodológicos são descritos a seguir:a) identificação dos produtos mais representativos da cadeia -a soja em grão, o farelo de soja e óleo de soja -; e b) cálculo e análise dos resultados do modelo "Constant Market-Share" (CMS), com o objetivo de decompor as fontes de crescimento das exportações em quatro componentes: o crescimento do comércio mundial, composição da pauta de exportação, destino das exportações e o efeito competitividade. Os resultados sinalizam que o complexo da soja apresentou diversificação, pois houve desconcentração das exportações brasileiras e paranaenses, mas verificou-se a concentração do mercado exportador e o consequente acirramento da concorrência internacional. As fontes do crescimento do complexo soja no Brasil e no Paraná foram: a competitividade e o comércio mundial no período 1990/1994, dada a abertura comercial pós 1990 e no período 2000/2007, o efeito competitividade derivado dos investimentos em pesquisa e desenvolvimento. Os principais gargalos para o crescimento das exportações foram a infraestrutura, o protecionismo e a carência de políticas de interação entre os diferentes segmentos do complexo.

This article analyzes interdependence existence bet ween soybean and corn market in Brazil and Pa... more This article analyzes interdependence existence bet ween soybean and corn market in Brazil and Parana in the period of January of 2000 and Nov ember of 2008. The analyses contemplate the use of the Time Series Econometric methodology, testing the unit root in the series, by augmented Dickey-Fuller test, the co -integration and the proceeding the Vector Error Correction model (VEC) analyses. The article still uses the impulse response function and the error variance decomposition. The results show one great interaction between the markets and predominance to the shocks come to national soybean market. It is conclude that the Brazilian soybean market is a goo d indicative to one future trend in the soybean market of Parana and corn market of Parana and Brazil.

This article analyzes interdependence existence bet ween soybean and corn market in Brazil and Pa... more This article analyzes interdependence existence bet ween soybean and corn market in Brazil and Parana in the period of January of 2000 and Nov ember of 2008. The analyses contemplate the use of the Time Series Econometric methodology, testing the unit root in the series, by augmented Dickey-Fuller test, the co -integration and the proceeding the Vector Error Correction model

Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural, 2013

This paper investigates the ratio between real exchange rate and chicken meat prices in Brazil, f... more This paper investigates the ratio between real exchange rate and chicken meat prices in Brazil, from 2008 to 2012. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was applied. The results show a long-run ratio between the real exchange rate and the frozen broiler price – cointegration. However, evidences of the chicken meat price sensibility to the exchange rate are weak for the analyzed period. On the other hand, the paper suggests the evidence of the commodity currency. The paper highlights the importance of analyzing effects of the frozen chick meat on exchange rate in Brazil in the recent period.

Economia e Desenvolvimento, 2014

This study aims to analyze Paraná 's municipal development in the years 2000, 2005 and 20... more This study aims to analyze Paraná 's municipal development in the years 2000, 2005 and 2010, to verify the presence of spatial autocorrelation and cluster formation among its municipalities. As development indicator index FIRJAN Municipal Development - IFDM was used considering the aggregate: employ / income, education and health. Carried out the descriptive statistical analysis of the evolution of IFDM and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) to verify the existence of spatial correlation and identification of cities' cluster developed and undeveloped. The present study concluded that the municipal development, using the data from the IFDM, showed improvement, not only in the State but also in most municipalities, both for the overall index Education and Health. Regarding the spatial analysis of the data it was found that spatial autocorrelation exists and it is positive for all years studied. In the three years analyzed, clusters development is distributed in three regions: North Central, West, and Metropolitan Curitiba. Clusters of underdevelopment were distributed in central and eastern state.

Planejamento e Políticas Públicas, Jun 24, 2015

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the Paraná’s state universities and ... more The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the Paraná’s state universities and
economic development between 2006 and 2010. We estimate different panel data models including all
municipalities of Paraná. We use the Indexes of Municipality Development of Rio de Janeiro’s Industrial
Federation (Firjan-IFDM) to measure the economic development: the aggregate indicator, the subindexes
of employment / income, education and health as measures of municipal economic development. The results indicate that the Paraná state universities have a significant positive interaction with the indicator of employment/income, on the other hand, it is observed that the relationship between these institutions and the indicators of education and health are significantly inferior.

Dynamic hedging effectiveness for soybean farmers in Rondonópolis (MT) with futures contracts of... more Dynamic hedging effectiveness for soybean farmers in Rondonópolis (MT) with futures contracts of BM&F is calculated through optimal hedge determination, using the bivariate GARCH BEKK model, which considers the conditional correlations of the prices series, comparing the results with the minimum variance model effectiveness, calculated by OLS, the unhedged and the naïve hedge positions. The financial effectiveness of the dynamic

Avaliação do desempenho dos novos instrumentos de política de garantia de preços agrícolas de 200... more Avaliação do desempenho dos novos instrumentos de política de garantia de preços agrícolas de 2004 a 2007 Grupo de Pesquisa 1: Comercialização, mercados e preços. Resumo -O objetivo deste artigo é avaliar o desempenho dos instrumentos da Política de Garantia de Preços Agrícolas (PGPA), criados a partir de 2004, em termos de produtos e regiões. Os contratos de opção privada que começaram a ser criados a partir de 2004 possuem característica de transferir à iniciativa privada a responsabilidade de abastecer áreas previamente determinadas. O PEPRO -Prêmio para Escoamento em Opção Privada, o PROP -Prêmio de Risco para Opção Privada e o PESOJA -Prêmio de Risco para a Soja, constituem os novos instrumentos para operacionalização da PGPA. Esse trabalho avaliou o dinamismo destes em comparação com os já existentes. Observou-se que os novos instrumentos, assim como os já operantes, se mostraram concentrados por cultura e por estado. Se concentrando em produtos voltados ao mercado e em produtos nos quais os mercados são organizados, tais como: soja, milho e algodão. Os produtos beneficiados têm ainda característica de possuírem elasticidade preço da demanda alta. Quanto à concentração por Estado, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás e Bahia apresentaram maior volume negociado. Palavras-chave: Comercialização, sustentação de preços, política de garantia de preços agrícolas. Abstract: This paper analyzes the performance of new Agricultural Price Support Policies (PGPA) created since 2004, by different products and regions. The contracts of private option, which had been started since 2004, have characteristic that transfer to the private initiative the responsibility to supply previously definitive areas. The PEPRO

Organizacoes Rurais Agroindustriais, Jan 6, 2015

RESUMO Objetiva-se, neste artigo, caracterizar o perfil exportador do agronegócio do estado de Ma... more RESUMO Objetiva-se, neste artigo, caracterizar o perfil exportador do agronegócio do estado de Mato Grosso do Sul, identificar quais segmentos possuem vantagens comparativas reveladas -competitividade -, quem são os parceiros mais representativos, assim como o tipo de comércio que se realiza. A metodologia utilizada permitiu avaliar, a partir de dados ex post, o desempenho competitivo dos segmentos do agronegócio, assim como os pontos fortes, fracos e neutros nas relações comerciais do Estado. Foram utilizados os índices: Gini-Hirschman; vantagem comparativa revelada (VCR); contribuição para o saldo comercial (CS); taxa de cobertura (TC) e comércio intraindústria (ICI). Os resultados mostraram que as exportações possuem uma forte dependência do agronegócio, com predominância dos segmentos carnes, complexo soja, complexo sucroalcooleiro e celulose. As exportações apresentam crescimento nos últimos quinze anos, porém a predominância dos segmentos do agronegócio vem sendo reduzida, nos últimos anos. O estudo permite concluir que importantes segmentos para o agronegócio do Estado apresentam elevada contribuição para o saldo comercial, entretanto, a baixa competitividade (VCR), sinaliza necessidade de investimentos nesses setores para um bom desempenho de Mato Grosso do Sul no comércio exterior.

Resumo O presente artigo tem por objetivo analisar o comportamento da balança comercial brasileir... more Resumo
O presente artigo tem por objetivo analisar o comportamento da balança comercial brasileira no período de 2000 a 2014. Procura-se compreender os fatores principais que contribuíram de forma positiva para a evolução do saldo: o crescimento dos preços, a demanda externa das commodities e o crescimento da economia mundial. A análise dos resultados destaca o desempenho das exportações do país em um contexto de taxa de câmbio flexível, frente a movimentos de apreciação e depreciação da moeda doméstica durante o período de estudo. Os resultados encontrados demonstram que as empresas exportadoras brasileiras parecem ser beneficiadas por períodos de apreciação cambial. Além disso, demonstrou-se que a pauta exportadora do país está cada vez mais concentrada em produtos básicos, o que pode ser prejudicial ao seu dinamismo no futuro.
Palavras-chave
Exportações, Desempenho Comercial, Taxa de câmbio.
Abstract
This article aims to analyze the Brazilian's trade balance behavior, in the period from 2000 to 2014. Tried to understand the main factors that contributed positively to the evolution of the balance: the price’s growth, external demand for commodities and the world economy’s growth. The analysis highlights the export performance of the country in a context of flexible exchange rate, compared to movements of appreciation and depreciation of the domestic currency during the study period. The results show that Brazilian industries exporters seem to be benefited by periods of currency appreciation. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that the country’s export list is increasingly concentrated in basic products, which may be detrimental to its momentum in the future.

Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural, Sep 2013

This paper investigates the ratio between real exchange rate and chicken meat prices in Brazil, f... more This paper investigates the ratio between real exchange rate and chicken meat prices in Brazil, from 2008 to 2012. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was applied. The results show a long-run ratio between the real exchange rate and the frozen broiler price – cointegration. However, evidences of the chicken meat price sensibility to the exchange rate are weak for the analyzed period. On the other hand, the paper suggests the evidence of the commodity currency. The paper highlights the importance of analyzing effects of the frozen chick meat on exchange rate in Brazil in the recent period.

This study aims to analyze Paraná 's municipal development in the years 2000, 2005 and 2010, to v... more This study aims to analyze Paraná 's municipal development in the years 2000, 2005 and 2010, to verify the presence of spatial autocorrelation and cluster formation among its municipalities. As development indicator index FIRJAN Municipal Development - IFDM was used considering the aggregate: employ / income, education and health. Carried out the descriptive statistical analysis of the evolution of IFDM and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) to verify the existence of spatial correlation and identification of cities' cluster developed and undeveloped. The present study concluded that the municipal development, using the data from the IFDM, showed improvement, not only in the State but also in most municipalities, both for the overall index Education and Health. Regarding the spatial analysis of the data it was found that spatial autocorrelation exists and it is positive for all years studied. In the three years analyzed, clusters development is distributed in three regions: North Central, West, and Metropolitan Curitiba. Clusters of underdevelopment were distributed in central and eastern state.

Organizações Rurais & Agroindustriais (Lavras), Jul 2009

The soy agroindustry complex in Brazil and in Paraná state: exportations and competitiveness from... more The soy agroindustry complex in Brazil and in Paraná state: exportations and competitiveness from 1990 to 2007 RESUMO A sojicultura brasileira tem apresentado resultados promissores nos últimos anos, assumindo papel atuante na pauta de exportações brasileiras. O presente artigo analisa o comportamento das exportações de soja e derivados, para o Brasil e Paraná, no período de 1990 até 2007. Os procedimentos metodológicos são descritos a seguir:a) identificação dos produtos mais representativos da cadeia -a soja em grão, o farelo de soja e óleo de soja -; e b) cálculo e análise dos resultados do modelo "Constant Market-Share" (CMS), com o objetivo de decompor as fontes de crescimento das exportações em quatro componentes: o crescimento do comércio mundial, composição da pauta de exportação, destino das exportações e o efeito competitividade. Os resultados sinalizam que o complexo da soja apresentou diversificação, pois houve desconcentração das exportações brasileiras e paranaenses, mas verificou-se a concentração do mercado exportador e o consequente acirramento da concorrência internacional. As fontes do crescimento do complexo soja no Brasil e no Paraná foram: a competitividade e o comércio mundial no período 1990/1994, dada a abertura comercial pós 1990 e no período 2000/2007, o efeito competitividade derivado dos investimentos em pesquisa e desenvolvimento. Os principais gargalos para o crescimento das exportações foram a infraestrutura, o protecionismo e a carência de políticas de interação entre os diferentes segmentos do complexo.

This article analyzes interdependence existence bet ween soybean and corn market in Brazil and Pa... more This article analyzes interdependence existence bet ween soybean and corn market in Brazil and Parana in the period of January of 2000 and Nov ember of 2008. The analyses contemplate the use of the Time Series Econometric methodology, testing the unit root in the series, by augmented Dickey-Fuller test, the co -integration and the proceeding the Vector Error Correction model (VEC) analyses. The article still uses the impulse response function and the error variance decomposition. The results show one great interaction between the markets and predominance to the shocks come to national soybean market. It is conclude that the Brazilian soybean market is a goo d indicative to one future trend in the soybean market of Parana and corn market of Parana and Brazil.

This article analyzes interdependence existence bet ween soybean and corn market in Brazil and Pa... more This article analyzes interdependence existence bet ween soybean and corn market in Brazil and Parana in the period of January of 2000 and Nov ember of 2008. The analyses contemplate the use of the Time Series Econometric methodology, testing the unit root in the series, by augmented Dickey-Fuller test, the co -integration and the proceeding the Vector Error Correction model

Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural, 2013

This paper investigates the ratio between real exchange rate and chicken meat prices in Brazil, f... more This paper investigates the ratio between real exchange rate and chicken meat prices in Brazil, from 2008 to 2012. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was applied. The results show a long-run ratio between the real exchange rate and the frozen broiler price – cointegration. However, evidences of the chicken meat price sensibility to the exchange rate are weak for the analyzed period. On the other hand, the paper suggests the evidence of the commodity currency. The paper highlights the importance of analyzing effects of the frozen chick meat on exchange rate in Brazil in the recent period.

Economia e Desenvolvimento, 2014

This study aims to analyze Paraná 's municipal development in the years 2000, 2005 and 20... more This study aims to analyze Paraná 's municipal development in the years 2000, 2005 and 2010, to verify the presence of spatial autocorrelation and cluster formation among its municipalities. As development indicator index FIRJAN Municipal Development - IFDM was used considering the aggregate: employ / income, education and health. Carried out the descriptive statistical analysis of the evolution of IFDM and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) to verify the existence of spatial correlation and identification of cities' cluster developed and undeveloped. The present study concluded that the municipal development, using the data from the IFDM, showed improvement, not only in the State but also in most municipalities, both for the overall index Education and Health. Regarding the spatial analysis of the data it was found that spatial autocorrelation exists and it is positive for all years studied. In the three years analyzed, clusters development is distributed in three regions: North Central, West, and Metropolitan Curitiba. Clusters of underdevelopment were distributed in central and eastern state.

Planejamento e Políticas Públicas, Jun 24, 2015

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the Paraná’s state universities and ... more The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the Paraná’s state universities and
economic development between 2006 and 2010. We estimate different panel data models including all
municipalities of Paraná. We use the Indexes of Municipality Development of Rio de Janeiro’s Industrial
Federation (Firjan-IFDM) to measure the economic development: the aggregate indicator, the subindexes
of employment / income, education and health as measures of municipal economic development. The results indicate that the Paraná state universities have a significant positive interaction with the indicator of employment/income, on the other hand, it is observed that the relationship between these institutions and the indicators of education and health are significantly inferior.