nadina mezza | Universidad Nacional de La Plata (original) (raw)
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M. A. Jinnah University, Islamabad, Pakistan
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Following the liberalization reforms of the late 80s and early 90s, several emerging market econo... more Following the liberalization reforms of the late 80s and early 90s, several emerging market economies have experienced large and persistent trade deficits. This paper focuses on the Argentine experience, examining the extent to which trade imbalances in the 1990s resulted from income and relative price movements, as well as from shifts in foreign trade elasticities associated with structural changes. New estimates of export and import equations are presented using a broader set of variables than previous studies and distinguishing between intra and extra MERCOSUR trade. We find that considerable export sensitivity to world commodity prices, domestic absorption, and economic activity in Brazil, combined with a high income elasticity of imports, are key determinants of Argentina’s trade balance.
The aims of this research project are: a) to assess the potential stagflation effects of the stab... more The aims of this research project are: a) to assess the potential stagflation effects of the stabilization and structural reform programs carried out in Argentina since December 2015; and b) to widen the knowledge and comprehension of the evolving developments of both the Argentine and the international economy, as well as their initial conditions, and the associated short-term and longterm effects of such developments. The viability of the applied anti-inflation policies was assessed, as well as those related to the promotion of both employment and economic growth. Once the main topics and issues were defined, the available data were analyzed, in order to design economic and econometric models. On a preliminary basis, it was observed that the ongoing difficulties to return to an economic growth path with price stability would obey to relative price and income distortions linked to state control mechanisms put in place between 2002 and 2015. These gave rise to economic policy dilemm...
El objetivo del proyecto es elaborar modelos que produzcan una medicion precisa de la evolucion d... more El objetivo del proyecto es elaborar modelos que produzcan una medicion precisa de la evolucion de variables claves de la economia real no disponibles en Argentina. Por un lado, en el caso de los indicadores de actividad, se utilizaron tecnicas que la literatura ha dado en llamar “aprendizaje de maquina” (Machine Learning). Su uso se encuentra justificado en el trabajo de Eurostat Big Data and Macroeconomic Nowcasting: from data access to modelling. Los resultados no fueron los esperados, ya que se debe sortear la problematica del constante truncamiento y reelaboracion de series estadisticas, proceso que ocurre con mucha frecuencia desde 2016. Actualmente, el algoritmo de IA se encuentra desarrollado en lenguaje R y se esta trabajando en una base de datos. No obstante, el algoritmo no ha sido testeado para datos heterogeneos en la dimension temporal. Por otro lado, se destaca que se arribo al estimador mensual buscado, denominado Indice Mensual de Inversion Real (IMIR-USAL), que res...
The purpose of this research project is to generate indicators and models that account for the ev... more The purpose of this research project is to generate indicators and models that account for the evolution of the real economy and the situation of financial markets. In this context, the project also aims to provide robust evidence on the role of the different levels of information and generate interest for the development of quantitative instruments in students and professors of the University. During the year 2016, models of macroeconomic indicators were defined and run for the Market Expectations Survey (REM) of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). In terms of the development of real-time indicators for economic activity, research about the quantitative methodology used in its construction was concluded. Also, exploration on the viability of possible alternative methods taking into account statistic data availability which are both relevant and sufficient has been under research. Likewise, with respect to financial markets, sufficient evidence of specific episodes of stress was f...
Following the liberalization reforms of the late 80s and early 90s, several emerging market econo... more Following the liberalization reforms of the late 80s and early 90s, several emerging market economies have experienced large and persistent trade deficits. This paper focuses on the Argentine experience, examining the extent to which trade imbalances in the 1990s resulted from income and relative price movements, as well as from shifts in foreign trade elasticities associated with structural changes. New estimates of export and import equations are presented using a broader set of variables than previous studies and distinguishing between intra and extra MERCOSUR trade. We find that considerable export sensitivity to world commodity prices, domestic absorption, and economic activity in Brazil, combined with a high income elasticity of imports, are key determinants of Argentina’s trade balance.
The aims of this research project are: a) to assess the potential stagflation effects of the stab... more The aims of this research project are: a) to assess the potential stagflation effects of the stabilization and structural reform programs carried out in Argentina since December 2015; and b) to widen the knowledge and comprehension of the evolving developments of both the Argentine and the international economy, as well as their initial conditions, and the associated short-term and longterm effects of such developments. The viability of the applied anti-inflation policies was assessed, as well as those related to the promotion of both employment and economic growth. Once the main topics and issues were defined, the available data were analyzed, in order to design economic and econometric models. On a preliminary basis, it was observed that the ongoing difficulties to return to an economic growth path with price stability would obey to relative price and income distortions linked to state control mechanisms put in place between 2002 and 2015. These gave rise to economic policy dilemm...
El objetivo del proyecto es elaborar modelos que produzcan una medicion precisa de la evolucion d... more El objetivo del proyecto es elaborar modelos que produzcan una medicion precisa de la evolucion de variables claves de la economia real no disponibles en Argentina. Por un lado, en el caso de los indicadores de actividad, se utilizaron tecnicas que la literatura ha dado en llamar “aprendizaje de maquina” (Machine Learning). Su uso se encuentra justificado en el trabajo de Eurostat Big Data and Macroeconomic Nowcasting: from data access to modelling. Los resultados no fueron los esperados, ya que se debe sortear la problematica del constante truncamiento y reelaboracion de series estadisticas, proceso que ocurre con mucha frecuencia desde 2016. Actualmente, el algoritmo de IA se encuentra desarrollado en lenguaje R y se esta trabajando en una base de datos. No obstante, el algoritmo no ha sido testeado para datos heterogeneos en la dimension temporal. Por otro lado, se destaca que se arribo al estimador mensual buscado, denominado Indice Mensual de Inversion Real (IMIR-USAL), que res...
The purpose of this research project is to generate indicators and models that account for the ev... more The purpose of this research project is to generate indicators and models that account for the evolution of the real economy and the situation of financial markets. In this context, the project also aims to provide robust evidence on the role of the different levels of information and generate interest for the development of quantitative instruments in students and professors of the University. During the year 2016, models of macroeconomic indicators were defined and run for the Market Expectations Survey (REM) of the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). In terms of the development of real-time indicators for economic activity, research about the quantitative methodology used in its construction was concluded. Also, exploration on the viability of possible alternative methods taking into account statistic data availability which are both relevant and sufficient has been under research. Likewise, with respect to financial markets, sufficient evidence of specific episodes of stress was f...