Giampiero Bambagioni | University of Perugia, Italy (original) (raw)

Papers by Giampiero Bambagioni

Aestimum, 2024

According to IVS 2023 the terminal value of a DCFA can be calculated in respect of the three fund... more According to IVS 2023 the terminal value of a DCFA can be calculated in respect of the three fundamental appraisal approach: market, income and cost. Specifically, “Where the asset is expected to continue beyond the explicit forecast period, valuers must estimate the value of the asset at the end of that period. The terminal value is then discounted back to the valuation date, normally using the same discount rate as applied to the forecast cash flow” (IVS 105 Valuation Approaches and Methods, para 50.20). Although academic and professional normally refer to direct capitalization to calculate the exit value (scrap value, going out value) different approaches are possible. In particular it is possible to calculate the exit value using the market approach. The present work starts from an original model of Discounted Cash Flow Analysis proposed by Simonotti (2006) to propose possible alternative to the original formula. The model proposed, as defined for the paper “Prudential Value DCFA Formula (PVF)” provides methodological alternatives to the original model in order to apply the method in different property market conditions allowing the appraiser to represent even property market in recovery or falling market phase, or prudential assessment of worth and opinion of value. In particular the proposed model replace the compound growth of the property value included in the traditional Simonotti’s model, with a linear growth or even a combination of both. The paper emphasize how property valuation standards can not be considered as immutable but they may be considered in constant evolution. In delivering an opinion of value for mortgage lending purposes the approach of professional academician and real estate analyst need to be able to respond to change of external conditions, in consideration of the sustainability of the cash flows in the long term, for the entire duration of the loan (and therefore for the purpose of identifying the long-term sustainable value of the asset). The approach is functional, inter alia, for the purpose of identifying the “prudential value” as defined by the innovative banking regulation (Basel 3) according to the definition of loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for loan origination and monitoring.

Aestimum, 2023

For International Valuation Standards (IVS) the estimate of the "forced sale" value implies a val... more For International Valuation Standards (IVS) the estimate of the "forced sale" value implies a value judgment with reference to a degeneration of the market value basis, since "a forced sale" is a description of the situation in which the exchange takes place, not a distinct basis of value (IVS 2022, Par. 170.1).The paper illustrates a model that can be used to measure the difference between market value and forced sale value, as an aid to real estate valuations related to real estate executions. The proposed method is aimed at determining the difference between the estimated values and the final sales values obtained through the executive process, on the basis of the Short Table Market Comparison Approach (MCA). This method contributes more appropriately to the estimate of the value obtainable from the outcome of the enforcement process than arbitrary reductions in the market value. An application on a small sample of residential properties undergoing enforcement procedure highlights the possibility of using the Short Table MCA even with a limited number of comparables.

Aestimum, 2023

Social Science Research Network, Nov 16, 2018

This publication reflects the emergence of key international agreements, such as the 2030 Agenda ... more This publication reflects the emergence of key international agreements, such as the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; the Geneva UN Charter on Sustainable Housing; the New Urban Agenda; the Paris Agreement, and the Basel III Agreement, have led to the establishment of new global and regional policy frameworks for future activities on sustainable urban development at all levels. The current publication also includes updates on the issues such as urbanization, migration and mobility flows, technology and innovation; the growth of emerging markets and asset competition, the change in housing demand oriented towards green buildings and new designs; energy consumption and climate change; and other relevant phenomena. Moreover, this version of the Policy Framework for Sustainable Real Estate Markets maintains that, contrary to the widespread belief that finance and real estate sectors have negative impact on sustainability, they can actually contribute to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals with the implementation of effective and compatible principles. In particular, the publication shows that these principles can be incorporated by national, local and municipal governments and applied to various forms of real estate. This publication is an update to the 2010 Policy Framework for Sustainable Real Estate Markets, that was also published by the UNECE Real Estate Market Advisory Group. --- United Nations Pubblication: ISBN 978-92-1-117210-2 eISBN 978-92-1-004293-2

Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, 2017

Nell'ambito della valutazione di consistenti patrimoni immobiliari le metodologie valutative fann... more Nell'ambito della valutazione di consistenti patrimoni immobiliari le metodologie valutative fanno essenzialmente riferimento alle "stime di massa" (mass appraisal); in questi ultimi decenni numerose sono le applicazioni di modelli statistici ed econometrici sviluppate da diversi autori per indagare le funzioni di formazione dei valori per ambiti estimativi a larga scala quali: • Modelli di regressione (regression models): utilizzati principalmente per quantificare economicamente gli effetti determinati da fattori ambientali, localizzativi, sociali e edilizi sul valore dei beni immobiliari [1-5]; • Reti neurali artificiali: utilizzate principalmente per prevedere i valori immobiliari e per definire omogenei segmenti di mercato [6-10]; • Metodi di analisi spaziale: utilizzati per verificare, tramite applicazioni GIS, il peso di alcune variabili localizzative quali l'"accessibilità" [11-15]; • Modelli ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models): utilizzati per spiegare i prezzi degli immobili residenziali in relazione ad alcune variabili macroeconomiche [16-19]. L'applicazione di questi modelli estimativi dipende dalla disponibilità dei dati di mercato (prezzi o affitti), nonché dalle informazioni quantitative e qualitative delle caratteristiche dei beni. È noto, infatti, che il valore di un bene immobiliare dipende dalle sue caratteristiche e dall'importanza (peso) che queste assumono nella formazione dei prezzi di mercato [20-23]. La mancanza di trasparenza del mercato reale e l'insufficienza di dati campionari portano, quindi, a sperimentare nuovi approcci nella stima dei beni immobiliari, sempre più orientati verso lo studio del processo decisionale e le funzioni di utilità che caratterizzano gli attori del mercato (compratori e venditori). Curto e Simonotti [24] identificano-nel contesto della teoria delle decisioni-utili strumenti teorici e metodologici per la definizione di metodi qualitativi e quantitativi,

"During seminar organized at United Nations Economic Commission fo Europe (UNECE) Headquarte... more "During seminar organized at United Nations Economic Commission fo Europe (UNECE) Headquarters in Geneve by the relative Real Estate Market Advisory Group (REM) and the UNECE Secretariat, it was highlighted that the current global financial crisis is the result of inadequate regulation of real estate and financial markets. Real estate bubbles were allowed to inflate, mortgage lending was inadequately supervised, financial markets were allowed to develop complex financial instruments that few understood, credit risk was inadequately modelled, and credit rating agencies failed to carry out their fundamental role. Investors also failed to properly understand the instruments they were buying and consumers failed to evaluate the risks they were undertaking in buying inflated property with innovative mortgages. Experts in the meeting agreed on the need to develop a framework for Real Estate Markets (and financial sectors related to Real Estate) that could be useful to promote stability and sustainability and to minimize the effects of the crisis. The ""KEY COMPONENTS OF REAL ESTATE MARKETS FRAMEWORK"" represents a specific attempt to address the current lack of regulations and guidance but, taken alone it cannot provide an exhaustive solution to the more complex issues related to the lack of adequate housing present in several countries in the UNECE region, which require comprehensive polices and the direct intervention of Governments. To that end the document is structured as follows: Following each of the ten principles the underlying rationale is briefly explained, always followed by a number of key indicators that should be taken into account when implementing the given principle for improvement of the real estate market. The study also advocates bringing greater harmonization to the sets of national town-planning and building laws, which n in some countries n are often regulated by very diverse and contradictory local laws. Good governance is in need of harmonized and appropriate regulations in the building and real estate sector as well. The main aims of this document are to: 1. promote the understanding of some critical issues of the real-estate sector, in order to better develop management tactics and strategies that may assist to different extents depending on the level of development of national economies n in the identification of solutions to the current financial market crisis world-wide; and 2. define rules and principles that may promote the development of solutions within different enforcement frameworks according to the development level of the national real-estate markets and in compliance with the respective legal systems, so that medium and long-term economic and social benefits may be drawn."

Rights of translation, reproduction by any means (including microfilm, films, photocopies, etc.),... more Rights of translation, reproduction by any means (including microfilm, films, photocopies, etc.), electronic memorization and total or partial adaptation, are reserved for all countries. Quotation is permitted provided that specific reference is made to the publisher, editor, and supervisor of the work.

United Nations Pubblication, 2019

This publication reflects the emergence of key international agreements, such as the 2030 Agenda ... more This publication reflects the emergence of key international agreements, such as the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; the Geneva UN Charter on Sustainable Housing; the New Urban Agenda; the Paris Agreement, and the Basel III Agreement, have led to the establishment of new global and regional policy frameworks for future activities on sustainable urban development at all levels.
The current publication also includes updates on the issues such as urbanization, migration and mobility flows, technology and innovation; the growth of emerging markets and asset competition, the change in housing demand oriented towards green buildings and new designs; energy consumption and climate change; and other relevant phenomena. Moreover, this version of the Policy Framework for Sustainable Real Estate Markets maintains that, contrary to the widespread belief that finance and real estate sectors have negative impact on sustainability, they can actually contribute to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals with the implementation of effective and compatible principles. In particular, the publication shows that these principles can be incorporated by national, local and municipal governments and applied to various forms of real estate.
This publication is an update to the 2010 Policy Framework for Sustainable Real Estate Markets, that was also published by the UNECE Real Estate Market Advisory Group.
---
United Nations Pubblication:
ISBN 978-92-1-117210-2
eISBN 978-92-1-004293-2

QEI | Quaderni di Economia Immobiliare, 2019

La vigente normativa bancaria prevede che il Loan-to-value (LTV) sia stimato in base al corrente ... more La vigente normativa bancaria prevede che il Loan-to-value (LTV) sia stimato in base al corrente valore di mercato e che le esposizioni pienamente e totalmente garantite da ipoteche sugli immobili possano beneficiare di una preferenziale ponderazione del rischio che richiede una minore allocazione del capitale. In quest'ottica il valore di credito ipotecario (Mortgage Lending Value) è finalizzato alla prudente valutazione della futura commerciabilità dell'immobile ma è crescente l'interesse scientifico-metodologico per il Long-Term Sustainable Value (LTS-V).

In this study, the interdependency is presented between the characteristics of the buildings and ... more In this study, the interdependency is presented between the characteristics of the buildings and the relative economic value, in order to plan economic policies and preconditions for improving the quality of the European buildings heritage through access, by an holistic approach, to the necessary financial resources. The economic value of a real estate asset is closely connected to the construction features and their performance over time (lifecycle). Safer, more comfortable and productive buildings for inhabitants are at the same time more operationally efficient and economically convenient for the owners. Solidity characteristics and static resistance to earthquakes, eco-efficiency and other constructive qualities of the building will provide benefits in the long term, and they are directly related the LCC (life cycle cost) including specific construction and/or maintenance costs. Moreover, these characteristics have an impact on the " market value " and on the " mortgage lending value " of properties, as well as on the possibility of financing the purchase through access to more affordable mortgages, and to make really feasible conversions even in the absence of public financial resources. This study introduces a new approach for conversions involving whole buildings or city areas. This research identifies the economic sustainability of a project by combining principles and suitable methodologies, together with performance and other characteristics. These aspects constitute the essential prerequisite for obtaining mortgages from banks and/or financial resources from international investors.

Techne Journal of Technology For Architecture and Environment, 2012

La valorizzazione e la costruzione edilizia richiedono un approccio olistico che consenta una val... more La valorizzazione e la costruzione edilizia richiedono un approccio olistico che consenta una valutazione complessiva dell'investimento anche per gli aspetti di natura urbanistico-tecnico-economica. La valutazione è realizzabile ex ante mediante studi di fattibilità (peraltro espressamente previsti per le fattispecie richiamate nel Regolamento di attuazione ed esecuzione del Codice del contratti pubblici (D.P.R. 207/2010); a tal fine è necessario contemperare i «vincoli del progetto» che sostanziano in quattro macroaree: Risorse (e Sostenibilità economica), Cost Engineering, Tempi, Prestazioni/Qualità. Dimostrare la sostenibilità economica di una iniziativa edilizia coniugando principi e regole certe coerenti con le best practices internazionali -ancor più nel corrente quadro congiunturale economico-finanziario internazionale -costituisce il presupposto essenziale per il reperimento di risorse, talvolta anche presso investitori istituzionali internazionali, che consentano di sviluppare con continuità tutte le fasi del processo edilizio. Una intelligente valorizzazione dell'immenso patrimonio pubblico nazionale favorirà anche lo sviluppo economico-sociale del sistema Paese. Parole chiave: Patrimonio immobiliare, Valorizzazione economica, Valutazione, Sostenibilità, Progetti.

Considerazioni circa alcune possibili iniziative finalizzate a promuovere politiche economiche an... more Considerazioni circa alcune possibili iniziative finalizzate a promuovere politiche economiche anticicliche di tipo keynesiano, funzionali alla crescita del Pil, attraverso la infrastrutturazione e riqualificazione urbana, senza utilizzazione di suolo ulteriore, sulla base della straordinaria opportunità di valorizzazione e dismissione del patrimonio immobiliare pubblico a cura di Giampiero Bambagioni

Books by Giampiero Bambagioni

PPP & PRIVATE CAPITAL FOR SUSTAINABLE INFRASTRUCTURE AND SMART CITIES, Sep 2022

The achievement of the goal of the «economic and financial balance» of the project is the key to ... more The achievement of the goal of the «economic and financial
balance» of the project is the key to the feasibility of public and
private investments. For public works that can be implemented
through public-private partnership (PPPs), or through the
instrument of project finance, the contract may also cover
activities related to technical and economic feasibility analysis and
final design of related works or services.
Public infrastructure projects or private projects for urban
transformation and regeneration have to comply with, in addition to
urban planning regulations, directly or indirectly related regulations,
including both credit policies and sector-specific regulations. In
particular, the public sector is required to comply with European
and national standards that expressly require a prior assessment of
the economic and financial feasibility of the project.

Book, 2021

SOSTENIBILITA' DEL VALORE NEL FINANIAMENTO IMMOBILIARE. Long Term Sustainable Value (LTSV), stima... more SOSTENIBILITA' DEL VALORE NEL FINANIAMENTO IMMOBILIARE.
Long Term Sustainable Value (LTSV), stima delle caratteristiche Green e High-Performance degli immobili, Valutazione della sostenibilità dei finanziamenti, dei progetti infrastrutturali e di sviluppo immobiliare, alla luce degli Orientamenti EBA in materia di concessione e monitoraggio dei prestiti e dei fattori Environmental Social and Governance (ESG).
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Sostenibilità del valore nel finanziamento immobiliare.
"The theory of value needs to be reconsidered in terms of long-term sustainability. Especially when the value is associated with a property which is a collateral for a mortgage." The essay on the Sustainability of Value in Property Financing (i.e. "Sostenibilità del valore nel finanziamento immobiliare"), provides an innovative conceptual framework for understanding the correlations between Long-term sustainable value, Sustainable lending, Sustainable finance associated with Environmental Social and Governance (ESG) factors, Market sustainability and Economic development. This book (currently in Italian only) is based on an international perspective in order to contribute to the analysis of issues of increasing importance for the stakeholders of the banking and financial industry.

Aestimum, 2024

Aestimum, 2023

Social Science Research Network, Nov 16, 2018

Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture, 2017

United Nations Pubblication, 2019

This publication reflects the emergence of key international agreements, such as the 2030 Agenda ... more This publication reflects the emergence of key international agreements, such as the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; the Geneva UN Charter on Sustainable Housing; the New Urban Agenda; the Paris Agreement, and the Basel III Agreement, have led to the establishment of new global and regional policy frameworks for future activities on sustainable urban development at all levels.
The current publication also includes updates on the issues such as urbanization, migration and mobility flows, technology and innovation; the growth of emerging markets and asset competition, the change in housing demand oriented towards green buildings and new designs; energy consumption and climate change; and other relevant phenomena. Moreover, this version of the Policy Framework for Sustainable Real Estate Markets maintains that, contrary to the widespread belief that finance and real estate sectors have negative impact on sustainability, they can actually contribute to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals with the implementation of effective and compatible principles. In particular, the publication shows that these principles can be incorporated by national, local and municipal governments and applied to various forms of real estate.
This publication is an update to the 2010 Policy Framework for Sustainable Real Estate Markets, that was also published by the UNECE Real Estate Market Advisory Group.
---
United Nations Pubblication:
ISBN 978-92-1-117210-2
eISBN 978-92-1-004293-2

QEI | Quaderni di Economia Immobiliare, 2019

Techne Journal of Technology For Architecture and Environment, 2012

PPP & PRIVATE CAPITAL FOR SUSTAINABLE INFRASTRUCTURE AND SMART CITIES, Sep 2022

Book, 2021

The Real Estate Valuation Standard in Italy, published on 2016