Brendan O'Leary | University of Pennsylvania (original) (raw)

Papers by Brendan O'Leary

The UK general election has done Ireland and its northern neighbour one immense favour. A hard UK... more The UK general election has done Ireland and its northern neighbour one immense favour. A hard UKEXIT, defined as the entire UK leaving the customs union and the single market, is off the agenda for now. Brendan O'Leary argues that Theresa May's difficulties in enforcing such a uniform mode of leaving the EU will prove an opportunity for Ireland's new Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar. Dublin's hand has therefore been strengthened by what has just happened Dublin's hand has therefore been strengthened by what has just happened. It will have to keep a laser-like focus on ensuring no restoration of a hard border as the first item of business, and then all of its other interests may fall into place. The conjunction of May's folly and Corbyn's successful campaign may be much better for Irish nationalists of all stripes than the grinning faces of the DUP's 10 MPs currently suggest.

Oxford University Press eBooks, May 31, 2022

Public discussions about how the UK is to exit from the European Union have been too simplified, ... more Public discussions about how the UK is to exit from the European Union have been too simplified, and have failed to come up with any solution that recognizes that only England and Wales in fact voted to leave. Brendan O'Leary outlines a way forward where those nations wanting to remain in the EU might be able to do so. There has as yet been no Brexit, and there will not be-because there is no such entity as 'Britain'. There could, however, be a UKexit. But those who insist that a 52-48 vote is good enough to take the entire UK out of the EU would trigger a serious crisis of legitimacy. England and Wales have voted to leave the European Union, but Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Gibraltar have voted to remain. These differing outcomes have to be the central focus of political attention while we wait for the debris of broken expectations to settle. First things first: saving the UK But there is a constitutional compromise that would avoid the genuine prospect that a referendum on Scottish independence-promoted by the SNP and the Green Party-will lead to the break-up of the union of Great Britain. The Scots have every right to hold such a referendum, because the terms specified in the SNP's election manifesto have been met: a major material change in circumstances has occurred. The same constitutional compromise could diminish turbulence spilling into Northern Ireland. The same day that Nicola Sturgeon publicly indicated preparations for a second Scottish referendum, the Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland, Martin McGuinness (Sinn Féin), demanded that a poll be held to enable Irish reunification. Sinn Féin has a point. Many in Northern Ireland fear that a UK-wide exit would restore a border across Ireland, and strip away core components of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. Does the narrow outcome of a UK-wide

Intereconomics, Jul 1, 2016

Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.

The Northern Ireland Assembly by Brendan O'Leary A political rather than a religious miracle... more The Northern Ireland Assembly by Brendan O'Leary A political rather than a religious miracle occurred in Ireland on Good Friday. An Agreement was reached by the prime ministers of Ireland and the UK, and the leaders of eight political parties in Northern Ireland. Credit for the ...

Oxford University Press eBooks, Apr 11, 2019

This chapter explains the development of the concepts of consociation and arbitration in politica... more This chapter explains the development of the concepts of consociation and arbitration in political science. Full consociations reference political systems characterized by parity, proportionality, autonomy, and veto powers among the several parties to the pact. There are, however, important variations in the manner and the extent to which consociations are formally institutionalized. Arbitration defines political roles and policies through which third parties profess to act as neutral mediators willing to pursue impartially the shared and several interests of potentially conflicting ethnic groups. The chapter reviews both normative and explanatory debates over the formation and breakdown of consociations, and intimates their importance for the case at hand, Northern Ireland.

Oxford University Press eBooks, Apr 11, 2019

This chapter describes and explains the emergence and development of the Irish peace process. It ... more This chapter describes and explains the emergence and development of the Irish peace process. It discusses how the previously suspended inter-party and intergovernmental talks begun under the auspices of the Anglo-Irish Agreement were melded with that process. The Framework Documents that anticipated the 1998 Agreement are analysed, as well as the bargaining about bargaining that preceded the 1997–8 negotiations. The republican and loyalist ceasefires are examined, and the responses to which they gave rise are analysed.

West European Politics, Jul 1, 1993

... calculations. TABLE 2 SEATS HF.LD BY PARTIES IN DÁIL ÉIREANN 1ЧН7--У2 Party Net gain Net gain... more ... calculations. TABLE 2 SEATS HF.LD BY PARTIES IN DÁIL ÉIREANN 1ЧН7--У2 Party Net gain Net gain Fianna Fail Fine Gael Labour Progressive Democrats Workers' Party* Democratic Left Democratic Socialist Party! Green ...

Oxford University Press eBooks, Mar 18, 2004

The chapter discusses the use of the comparative method by Northern Ireland's political parti... more The chapter discusses the use of the comparative method by Northern Ireland's political partisans and academics. It shows how analogies with other conflicts have been used by partisans to further their political agendas. These analogies are tied to important international norms, and their use by Northern Ireland's politicians are an attempt to influence international opinion, as well as cement group solidarity. The second part of the chapter summarizes how Northern Ireland has been analysed by academics employing important comparative political theories, including consociationalism and integrationism.

Brill | Nijhoff eBooks, 2008

The partition of Ireland in 1920 and creation of 'Northern' Ireland was justified by Brit... more The partition of Ireland in 1920 and creation of 'Northern' Ireland was justified by British policy-makers as a way of dealing with the rival identities, interests and demands of Irish nationalists and Ulster unionists. Three conflict-management regimes in and over Northern Ireland have existed since its construction. The first, 'divide and partial quit', was embedded in the Government of Ireland Act and the 1921 Treaty and lasted until 1969-1972. The second, 'arbitration with intermittent efforts to promote power-sharing', was in effect throughout most of the period between 1972 and 1985. The third, 'inter-governmentalism and coercive consociation', emerged in 1985. It established the institutional and policy environment that made complex power-sharing agreement of 1998 possible. Complex power-sharing is not exhausted by the preceding description and analysis of the elaborate consociational provisions in the Agreement. It also directly and crucially addressed the core national self-determination dispute. Keywords: complex power-sharing; confederal institutions; conflict-management regimes; consociation; federacy; inter-governmentalism; Northern Ireland; peace process; self-determination dispute; treaty

Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies, May 24, 2023

Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks, Oct 25, 2019

Oxford University Press eBooks, Apr 11, 2019

In the latter half of the Union, participation crises occurred across the institutional spectrum,... more In the latter half of the Union, participation crises occurred across the institutional spectrum, with many Irish men and women choosing exit rather than voice or loyalty. That, however, produced a better-resourced Irish diaspora in an emergent great power. Catholics achieved some limited social mobility, but experienced regression in some occupations; by contrast, Presbyterians more clearly benefited from pan-Protestantism. The churches deepened their institutional strength in education, including higher education. The undemocratic character of the Union is emphasized in this chapter, but the secret ballot and the eventual widening of the male franchise made more visible what had long been evident: most Irish Catholics preferred repeal of the Union, home rule, or independence, or some variant thereof. The expanded electorate, in conjunction with modernization, underpinned the electoral solidification of nationalism and unionism, respectively supported by cultural Catholics and cultural Protestants, especially in Ulster, where polarization was deepest. The formation of Irish nationalism and republicanism in party formats, initially focused on land rights and home rule, and the countermovement of Irish and Ulster unionism are treated. The First World War postponed conflict in a newly para-militarized Ireland.

Oxford University Press eBooks, Apr 11, 2019

This chapter examines how and when the Irish Free State went from partial to full political decol... more This chapter examines how and when the Irish Free State went from partial to full political decolonization. It argues that Collins’s stepping-stone theory of the Treaty of 1921 would be proved correct, but that de Valéra and Childers and their allies also correctly observed the deficiencies of that treaty. The fate of southern Protestants is examined. The wilder allegations of genocide and ethnic expulsion are demonstrated to be without merit; their twentieth-century story is mostly one of integration and assimilation. Fianna Fáil’s program of constitutional transformation is traced and its significance for Northern Ireland evaluated. The Irish Free State’s state-building and consolidation of its sovereignty were diplomatic accomplishments of both Cumann na nGaedheal and Fianna Fáil governments. The program of Irish state-building clashed with the aspirations behind all-Ireland nation-building. The “economic war” of the 1930s and the Anglo-Irish Agreements of 1938 are surveyed, before the decisions of de Valéra’s cabinet regarding neutrality in the Second World War and the supposed British offer of reunification are interpreted for their long-run significance for Northern Ireland.

This chapter explores the concept and measurement of nationalism and its implications for interna... more This chapter explores the concept and measurement of nationalism and its implications for international security. It surveys canonical approaches and recent contributions to the literature that revise earlier simplistic understandings of nationalist conflict and national identification. It explores the uses of nationalism in diversionary war, self-determination movements, and great power Realpolitik competition, drawing insights from social psychology to explain the changing salience of national identity and analyzing the conditions under which nationalism can foster violent conflict within or between states. Complex connections between nationalism and war are outlined, highlighting the inherently contingent nature of national conflict. Analysts have been quick to predict the decline of nationalist conflict. The chapter considers the broad set of conditions that are consistent with such predictions, while also identifying scenarios in which nationalist conflicts can proliferate.

Foreign Affairs, Mar 25, 2019

West European Politics, 1990

... two seats in the Cabinet for their party's six deputies.3 The leader of the Progress... more ... two seats in the Cabinet for their party's six deputies.3 The leader of the Progressive Democrats, Desmond O'Malley, became Minister ... Anderson, Richard Doherty, Brian Farrell, Dr. Garret FitzGerald, Tom Garvin, Conor Lenihan, Tom Lyne, Seán O'Leary, Ella Shanahan, Jennifer ...

Government and Opposition, Mar 26, 2021

How much public and elite support is there for the use of a citizens' assemblya random selection ... more How much public and elite support is there for the use of a citizens' assemblya random selection of citizens brought together to consider a policy issueto tackle major, deadlock-inducing disagreements in deeply divided places with consociational political institutions? We focus on Northern Ireland and use evidence from a cross-sectional attitude survey, a survey-based experiment and elite interviews. We find that the general public support decision-making by a citizens' assembly, even when the decision reached is one they personally disagree with. However, support is lower among those with strong ideological views. We also find that elected politicians oppose delegating decision-making power to an 'undemocratic' citizens' assembly, but are more supportive of recommendation-making power. These findings highlight the potential for post-conflict consociations to be amended, with the consent of the parties, to include citizens' assemblies that make recommendations but not binding policy.

Regional Studies, Jun 4, 2020

The UK general election has done Ireland and its northern neighbour one immense favour. A hard UK... more The UK general election has done Ireland and its northern neighbour one immense favour. A hard UKEXIT, defined as the entire UK leaving the customs union and the single market, is off the agenda for now. Brendan O'Leary argues that Theresa May's difficulties in enforcing such a uniform mode of leaving the EU will prove an opportunity for Ireland's new Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar. Dublin's hand has therefore been strengthened by what has just happened Dublin's hand has therefore been strengthened by what has just happened. It will have to keep a laser-like focus on ensuring no restoration of a hard border as the first item of business, and then all of its other interests may fall into place. The conjunction of May's folly and Corbyn's successful campaign may be much better for Irish nationalists of all stripes than the grinning faces of the DUP's 10 MPs currently suggest.

Oxford University Press eBooks, May 31, 2022

Public discussions about how the UK is to exit from the European Union have been too simplified, ... more Public discussions about how the UK is to exit from the European Union have been too simplified, and have failed to come up with any solution that recognizes that only England and Wales in fact voted to leave. Brendan O'Leary outlines a way forward where those nations wanting to remain in the EU might be able to do so. There has as yet been no Brexit, and there will not be-because there is no such entity as 'Britain'. There could, however, be a UKexit. But those who insist that a 52-48 vote is good enough to take the entire UK out of the EU would trigger a serious crisis of legitimacy. England and Wales have voted to leave the European Union, but Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Gibraltar have voted to remain. These differing outcomes have to be the central focus of political attention while we wait for the debris of broken expectations to settle. First things first: saving the UK But there is a constitutional compromise that would avoid the genuine prospect that a referendum on Scottish independence-promoted by the SNP and the Green Party-will lead to the break-up of the union of Great Britain. The Scots have every right to hold such a referendum, because the terms specified in the SNP's election manifesto have been met: a major material change in circumstances has occurred. The same constitutional compromise could diminish turbulence spilling into Northern Ireland. The same day that Nicola Sturgeon publicly indicated preparations for a second Scottish referendum, the Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland, Martin McGuinness (Sinn Féin), demanded that a poll be held to enable Irish reunification. Sinn Féin has a point. Many in Northern Ireland fear that a UK-wide exit would restore a border across Ireland, and strip away core components of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. Does the narrow outcome of a UK-wide

Intereconomics, Jul 1, 2016

Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.

The Northern Ireland Assembly by Brendan O'Leary A political rather than a religious miracle... more The Northern Ireland Assembly by Brendan O'Leary A political rather than a religious miracle occurred in Ireland on Good Friday. An Agreement was reached by the prime ministers of Ireland and the UK, and the leaders of eight political parties in Northern Ireland. Credit for the ...

Oxford University Press eBooks, Apr 11, 2019

This chapter explains the development of the concepts of consociation and arbitration in politica... more This chapter explains the development of the concepts of consociation and arbitration in political science. Full consociations reference political systems characterized by parity, proportionality, autonomy, and veto powers among the several parties to the pact. There are, however, important variations in the manner and the extent to which consociations are formally institutionalized. Arbitration defines political roles and policies through which third parties profess to act as neutral mediators willing to pursue impartially the shared and several interests of potentially conflicting ethnic groups. The chapter reviews both normative and explanatory debates over the formation and breakdown of consociations, and intimates their importance for the case at hand, Northern Ireland.

Oxford University Press eBooks, Apr 11, 2019

This chapter describes and explains the emergence and development of the Irish peace process. It ... more This chapter describes and explains the emergence and development of the Irish peace process. It discusses how the previously suspended inter-party and intergovernmental talks begun under the auspices of the Anglo-Irish Agreement were melded with that process. The Framework Documents that anticipated the 1998 Agreement are analysed, as well as the bargaining about bargaining that preceded the 1997–8 negotiations. The republican and loyalist ceasefires are examined, and the responses to which they gave rise are analysed.

West European Politics, Jul 1, 1993

... calculations. TABLE 2 SEATS HF.LD BY PARTIES IN DÁIL ÉIREANN 1ЧН7--У2 Party Net gain Net gain... more ... calculations. TABLE 2 SEATS HF.LD BY PARTIES IN DÁIL ÉIREANN 1ЧН7--У2 Party Net gain Net gain Fianna Fail Fine Gael Labour Progressive Democrats Workers' Party* Democratic Left Democratic Socialist Party! Green ...

Oxford University Press eBooks, Mar 18, 2004

The chapter discusses the use of the comparative method by Northern Ireland's political parti... more The chapter discusses the use of the comparative method by Northern Ireland's political partisans and academics. It shows how analogies with other conflicts have been used by partisans to further their political agendas. These analogies are tied to important international norms, and their use by Northern Ireland's politicians are an attempt to influence international opinion, as well as cement group solidarity. The second part of the chapter summarizes how Northern Ireland has been analysed by academics employing important comparative political theories, including consociationalism and integrationism.

Brill | Nijhoff eBooks, 2008

The partition of Ireland in 1920 and creation of 'Northern' Ireland was justified by Brit... more The partition of Ireland in 1920 and creation of 'Northern' Ireland was justified by British policy-makers as a way of dealing with the rival identities, interests and demands of Irish nationalists and Ulster unionists. Three conflict-management regimes in and over Northern Ireland have existed since its construction. The first, 'divide and partial quit', was embedded in the Government of Ireland Act and the 1921 Treaty and lasted until 1969-1972. The second, 'arbitration with intermittent efforts to promote power-sharing', was in effect throughout most of the period between 1972 and 1985. The third, 'inter-governmentalism and coercive consociation', emerged in 1985. It established the institutional and policy environment that made complex power-sharing agreement of 1998 possible. Complex power-sharing is not exhausted by the preceding description and analysis of the elaborate consociational provisions in the Agreement. It also directly and crucially addressed the core national self-determination dispute. Keywords: complex power-sharing; confederal institutions; conflict-management regimes; consociation; federacy; inter-governmentalism; Northern Ireland; peace process; self-determination dispute; treaty

Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies, May 24, 2023

Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks, Oct 25, 2019

Oxford University Press eBooks, Apr 11, 2019

In the latter half of the Union, participation crises occurred across the institutional spectrum,... more In the latter half of the Union, participation crises occurred across the institutional spectrum, with many Irish men and women choosing exit rather than voice or loyalty. That, however, produced a better-resourced Irish diaspora in an emergent great power. Catholics achieved some limited social mobility, but experienced regression in some occupations; by contrast, Presbyterians more clearly benefited from pan-Protestantism. The churches deepened their institutional strength in education, including higher education. The undemocratic character of the Union is emphasized in this chapter, but the secret ballot and the eventual widening of the male franchise made more visible what had long been evident: most Irish Catholics preferred repeal of the Union, home rule, or independence, or some variant thereof. The expanded electorate, in conjunction with modernization, underpinned the electoral solidification of nationalism and unionism, respectively supported by cultural Catholics and cultural Protestants, especially in Ulster, where polarization was deepest. The formation of Irish nationalism and republicanism in party formats, initially focused on land rights and home rule, and the countermovement of Irish and Ulster unionism are treated. The First World War postponed conflict in a newly para-militarized Ireland.

Oxford University Press eBooks, Apr 11, 2019

This chapter examines how and when the Irish Free State went from partial to full political decol... more This chapter examines how and when the Irish Free State went from partial to full political decolonization. It argues that Collins’s stepping-stone theory of the Treaty of 1921 would be proved correct, but that de Valéra and Childers and their allies also correctly observed the deficiencies of that treaty. The fate of southern Protestants is examined. The wilder allegations of genocide and ethnic expulsion are demonstrated to be without merit; their twentieth-century story is mostly one of integration and assimilation. Fianna Fáil’s program of constitutional transformation is traced and its significance for Northern Ireland evaluated. The Irish Free State’s state-building and consolidation of its sovereignty were diplomatic accomplishments of both Cumann na nGaedheal and Fianna Fáil governments. The program of Irish state-building clashed with the aspirations behind all-Ireland nation-building. The “economic war” of the 1930s and the Anglo-Irish Agreements of 1938 are surveyed, before the decisions of de Valéra’s cabinet regarding neutrality in the Second World War and the supposed British offer of reunification are interpreted for their long-run significance for Northern Ireland.

This chapter explores the concept and measurement of nationalism and its implications for interna... more This chapter explores the concept and measurement of nationalism and its implications for international security. It surveys canonical approaches and recent contributions to the literature that revise earlier simplistic understandings of nationalist conflict and national identification. It explores the uses of nationalism in diversionary war, self-determination movements, and great power Realpolitik competition, drawing insights from social psychology to explain the changing salience of national identity and analyzing the conditions under which nationalism can foster violent conflict within or between states. Complex connections between nationalism and war are outlined, highlighting the inherently contingent nature of national conflict. Analysts have been quick to predict the decline of nationalist conflict. The chapter considers the broad set of conditions that are consistent with such predictions, while also identifying scenarios in which nationalist conflicts can proliferate.

Foreign Affairs, Mar 25, 2019

West European Politics, 1990

... two seats in the Cabinet for their party's six deputies.3 The leader of the Progress... more ... two seats in the Cabinet for their party's six deputies.3 The leader of the Progressive Democrats, Desmond O'Malley, became Minister ... Anderson, Richard Doherty, Brian Farrell, Dr. Garret FitzGerald, Tom Garvin, Conor Lenihan, Tom Lyne, Seán O'Leary, Ella Shanahan, Jennifer ...

Government and Opposition, Mar 26, 2021

How much public and elite support is there for the use of a citizens' assemblya random selection ... more How much public and elite support is there for the use of a citizens' assemblya random selection of citizens brought together to consider a policy issueto tackle major, deadlock-inducing disagreements in deeply divided places with consociational political institutions? We focus on Northern Ireland and use evidence from a cross-sectional attitude survey, a survey-based experiment and elite interviews. We find that the general public support decision-making by a citizens' assembly, even when the decision reached is one they personally disagree with. However, support is lower among those with strong ideological views. We also find that elected politicians oppose delegating decision-making power to an 'undemocratic' citizens' assembly, but are more supportive of recommendation-making power. These findings highlight the potential for post-conflict consociations to be amended, with the consent of the parties, to include citizens' assemblies that make recommendations but not binding policy.

Regional Studies, Jun 4, 2020

The Future of Northern Ireland, 1990

McGarry, John, and Brendan O'Leary, eds. 1990. The Future of Northern Ireland. Oxford: Oxford Uni... more McGarry, John, and Brendan O'Leary, eds. 1990. The Future of Northern Ireland. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

The book is out of print. Copyright retained by the editors and the several contributors

The Asiatic Mode of Production: Oriental Despotism, Historical Materialism and Indian History. , 1989

O'Leary, Brendan. 1989. The Asiatic Mode of Production: Oriental Despotism, Historical Materialis... more O'Leary, Brendan. 1989. The Asiatic Mode of Production: Oriental Despotism, Historical Materialism and Indian History. Vol. Foreword by Ernest Gellner. Oxford and New York: Basil Blackwell.

This is the first part of a photostat of a book that is out of print. Copyright retained by the author.

The Asiatic Mode of Production: Oriental Despotism, Historical Materialism, and Indian History, 1989

This is the second part of a photostat of this book, which is out of print.

The Politics of Ethnic Conflict Regulation, 1993

The Politics of Ethnic Conflict Regulation, edited by John McGarry and Brendan O'Leary, New York... more The Politics of Ethnic Conflict Regulation, edited by John McGarry and Brendan O'Leary, New York: Routledge.