Erik Melander | Uppsala University (original) (raw)
Papers by Erik Melander
European Journal of International …, Jan 1, 2009
It is widely believed that the human impact of civil conflict in the present era is especially de... more It is widely believed that the human impact of civil conflict in the present era is especially destructive. Proponents of the ‘new wars’ thesis hold that today’s conflicts are fuelled by exclusive identities, motivated by greed in the absence of strong states, and unchecked by the disinterested great powers, resulting in increased battle severity, civilian death and displacement. The ratio of civilian to military casualties is claimed to have tilted, so that the overwhelming majority of those killed today are civilians. Using systematic data that are comparable across cases and over time we find that, contrary to the ‘new wars’ thesis, the human impact of civil conflict is considerably lower in the post-Cold War period. We argue that this pattern reflects the decline of ideological conflict, the restraining influence of globalization on governments, and the increasing rarity of superpower campaigns of destabilization and counter-insurgency through proxy warfare.
The Slippery Slope to GenocideReducing Identity Conflicts and Preventing Mass Murder, 2012
Journal of Peace Research, 2013
ABSTRACT This article presents the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (UCDP GED). The UCDP GED is a... more ABSTRACT This article presents the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (UCDP GED). The UCDP GED is an event dataset that disaggregates three types of organized violence (state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence) both spatially and temporally. Each event – defined as an instance of organized violence with at least one fatality – comes with date, geographical location, and identifiers that allow the dataset to be linked to and merged with other UCDP datasets. The first version of the dataset covers events of fatal violence on the African continent between 1989 and 2010. This article, firstly, introduces the rationale for the new dataset, and explains the basic coding procedures as well as the quality controls. Secondly, we discuss some of the data’s potential weaknesses in representing the universe of organized violence, as well as some potential biases induced by the operationalizations. Thirdly, we provide an example of how the data can be used, by illustrating the association between cities and organized violence, taking population density into account. The UCDP GED is a useful resource for conflict analyses below the state and country-year levels, and can provide us with new insights into the geographical determinants and temporal sequencing of warfare and violence.
International Interactions, Jan 1, 2006
In this paper we introduce some theoretical and methodological refinements to account for effects... more In this paper we introduce some theoretical and methodological refinements to account for effects of duration dependence in forced migration flows that have not been noticed in previous research. The engine of previous theoretical arguments on forced migration has been a decision theoretic model in which the potential migrants estimate the threat to their security and then weigh this threat
Civil Wars, Jan 1, 2007
Civil war and other forms of generalized violence have been identified as the main determinants o... more Civil war and other forms of generalized violence have been identified as the main determinants of forced migration. Yet, there are still large variations across armed conflicts that have not been accounted for. In this article we examine new measures of armed conflict that indicate the magnitude and scope of fighting. We find that the geographical scope of fighting and
presentation to the conference The Quality of …, Jan 1, 2005
Abstract will be provided by author.
What can third parties do to end armed conflict? This paper presents a new event dataset on third... more What can third parties do to end armed conflict? This paper presents a new event dataset on third-party measures in intrastate conflict dyads, Managing Intrastate Conflict (MIC), covering as a minimum the years 1993-2004. The rationale behind MIC is to enable the systematic ...
papers.ssrn.com
Prepared for delivery at the Abstract In this study on the relationship between the quality of go... more Prepared for delivery at the Abstract In this study on the relationship between the quality of government institutions and civil war we examine the effect of bureaucracy quality on the risk of civil war in different institutional settings. In autocratic regimes governments cannot rely on mass media, opinion polls, public expressions of popular opinion and so on to keep it informed about the nature and scope popular grievances. Instead, autocratic regimes will largely have to rely on various government agencies to inform them about the state of public opinion. We argue that this makes the quality of the government bureaucracies important for the maintenance of civil peace in autocratic states. More autonomous and meritocratic bureaucracies will be better able to provide the information needed to devise strategies and policies that reduce the risk of violent challenges to government power. Using a cross-sectional time-series dataset covering most countries of the world during the period 1985-2004, and a comprehensive set of control variables, we find that high bureaucracy quality is indeed strongly associated with civil peace in autocratic regimes. These results are robust to alternative specifications.
The role of the state in West Asia/edited by Annika …, Jan 1, 2005
State Manipulation or Nationalist Ambition? Assessing the Causes of the Nagorno-Karabakh War1 ERI... more State Manipulation or Nationalist Ambition? Assessing the Causes of the Nagorno-Karabakh War1 ERIK MELANDER During the years 1992-94 a ruthless war raged over the constitutional status of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Province, a predominantly Armenian- ...
Journal of Gender Studies, Jan 1, 2011
This article investigates, both theoretically and empirically, the relationships between democrat... more This article investigates, both theoretically and empirically, the relationships between democratization, gender equality and peace. We argue that there is a need to scrutinize both the level of democracy as well as the level of masculine hegemony in societies. ...
Department of peace and conflict …
European Journal of International …, Jan 1, 2009
It is widely believed that the human impact of civil conflict in the present era is especially de... more It is widely believed that the human impact of civil conflict in the present era is especially destructive. Proponents of the ‘new wars’ thesis hold that today’s conflicts are fuelled by exclusive identities, motivated by greed in the absence of strong states, and unchecked by the disinterested great powers, resulting in increased battle severity, civilian death and displacement. The ratio of civilian to military casualties is claimed to have tilted, so that the overwhelming majority of those killed today are civilians. Using systematic data that are comparable across cases and over time we find that, contrary to the ‘new wars’ thesis, the human impact of civil conflict is considerably lower in the post-Cold War period. We argue that this pattern reflects the decline of ideological conflict, the restraining influence of globalization on governments, and the increasing rarity of superpower campaigns of destabilization and counter-insurgency through proxy warfare.
The Slippery Slope to GenocideReducing Identity Conflicts and Preventing Mass Murder, 2012
Journal of Peace Research, 2013
ABSTRACT This article presents the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (UCDP GED). The UCDP GED is a... more ABSTRACT This article presents the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (UCDP GED). The UCDP GED is an event dataset that disaggregates three types of organized violence (state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence) both spatially and temporally. Each event – defined as an instance of organized violence with at least one fatality – comes with date, geographical location, and identifiers that allow the dataset to be linked to and merged with other UCDP datasets. The first version of the dataset covers events of fatal violence on the African continent between 1989 and 2010. This article, firstly, introduces the rationale for the new dataset, and explains the basic coding procedures as well as the quality controls. Secondly, we discuss some of the data’s potential weaknesses in representing the universe of organized violence, as well as some potential biases induced by the operationalizations. Thirdly, we provide an example of how the data can be used, by illustrating the association between cities and organized violence, taking population density into account. The UCDP GED is a useful resource for conflict analyses below the state and country-year levels, and can provide us with new insights into the geographical determinants and temporal sequencing of warfare and violence.
International Interactions, Jan 1, 2006
In this paper we introduce some theoretical and methodological refinements to account for effects... more In this paper we introduce some theoretical and methodological refinements to account for effects of duration dependence in forced migration flows that have not been noticed in previous research. The engine of previous theoretical arguments on forced migration has been a decision theoretic model in which the potential migrants estimate the threat to their security and then weigh this threat
Civil Wars, Jan 1, 2007
Civil war and other forms of generalized violence have been identified as the main determinants o... more Civil war and other forms of generalized violence have been identified as the main determinants of forced migration. Yet, there are still large variations across armed conflicts that have not been accounted for. In this article we examine new measures of armed conflict that indicate the magnitude and scope of fighting. We find that the geographical scope of fighting and
presentation to the conference The Quality of …, Jan 1, 2005
Abstract will be provided by author.
What can third parties do to end armed conflict? This paper presents a new event dataset on third... more What can third parties do to end armed conflict? This paper presents a new event dataset on third-party measures in intrastate conflict dyads, Managing Intrastate Conflict (MIC), covering as a minimum the years 1993-2004. The rationale behind MIC is to enable the systematic ...
papers.ssrn.com
Prepared for delivery at the Abstract In this study on the relationship between the quality of go... more Prepared for delivery at the Abstract In this study on the relationship between the quality of government institutions and civil war we examine the effect of bureaucracy quality on the risk of civil war in different institutional settings. In autocratic regimes governments cannot rely on mass media, opinion polls, public expressions of popular opinion and so on to keep it informed about the nature and scope popular grievances. Instead, autocratic regimes will largely have to rely on various government agencies to inform them about the state of public opinion. We argue that this makes the quality of the government bureaucracies important for the maintenance of civil peace in autocratic states. More autonomous and meritocratic bureaucracies will be better able to provide the information needed to devise strategies and policies that reduce the risk of violent challenges to government power. Using a cross-sectional time-series dataset covering most countries of the world during the period 1985-2004, and a comprehensive set of control variables, we find that high bureaucracy quality is indeed strongly associated with civil peace in autocratic regimes. These results are robust to alternative specifications.
The role of the state in West Asia/edited by Annika …, Jan 1, 2005
State Manipulation or Nationalist Ambition? Assessing the Causes of the Nagorno-Karabakh War1 ERI... more State Manipulation or Nationalist Ambition? Assessing the Causes of the Nagorno-Karabakh War1 ERIK MELANDER During the years 1992-94 a ruthless war raged over the constitutional status of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Province, a predominantly Armenian- ...
Journal of Gender Studies, Jan 1, 2011
This article investigates, both theoretically and empirically, the relationships between democrat... more This article investigates, both theoretically and empirically, the relationships between democratization, gender equality and peace. We argue that there is a need to scrutinize both the level of democracy as well as the level of masculine hegemony in societies. ...
Department of peace and conflict …
The gender gap in attitudes to foreign policy is well established in public opinion literature. S... more The gender gap in attitudes to foreign policy is well established in public opinion literature. Studies have repeatedly reported that women tend to be more peaceful and less militaristic than men. This article reexamines attitudes of individuals in relation to foreign policy and pits the gender gap against the largely forgotten feminist gap. We argue that the individual-level relationship between gender equality attitudes on the one hand, and tolerance and benevolence on the other, is under-researched, but also that key contributions about the effects of feminism have been mostly ignored in research on the gender gap in public opinion. We return to the notion that there is a causal relationship between gender equality attitudes on the one hand, and peaceful attitudes on the other, and that this feminist gap also exists among men. In a series of novel empirical tests, we demonstrate that the attitudes to gender equality, not the biological sex of the individual, explain the attitudes towards other nationalities and religious groups. Using individual-level survey data from five countries around the Pacific: China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, and the United States of America, we show that both men and
women who reject gender equality are much more hostile both to other nations and to minorities in their own country.
International Interactions, 2013
This research note evaluates one of the commonly used measurements for political gender equality:... more This research note evaluates one of the commonly used measurements for political gender equality: representation of women in parliament. It demonstrates that caution is called for when interpreting results where this variable is used, because parliamentary representation implies different things in different settings. Societies with more women in parliament tend to have fewer intrastate armed conflicts. We investigate this statistical association with a particular focus on the East Asia. This region has seen a shift from extremely intense warfare to low levels of battle deaths at roughly the same time as great strides have been made in the representation of women in parliaments. This research note shows, however, that this statistical association is driven by authoritarian communist regimes, promoting gender equality as a part of communist ideology, and whose representative chambers have little influence over politics. Using statistical tests and empirical illustrations from East Asia, the note concludes that the political representation of women is an invalid indicator of political gender equality in East Asia. There is thus a need to nuance the picture painted in earlier research. In addition, the suggestion that more women in parliament will lead to fewer armed conflicts runs the risk of being forwarded as an oversimplified solution to complex problem, and we briefly discuss the instrumentalization of gender equality in peace and security studies.
European Journal of International …, 2009
It is widely believed that the human impact of civil conflict in the present era is especially de... more It is widely believed that the human impact of civil conflict in the present era is especially destructive. Proponents of the ‘new wars’ thesis hold that today’s conflicts are fuelled by exclusive identities, motivated by greed in the absence of strong states, and unchecked by the dis- interested great powers, resulting in increased battle severity, civilian death and displacement. The ratio of civilian to military casualties is claimed to have tilted, so that the overwhelming majority of those killed today are civilians. Using systematic data that are comparable across cases and over time we find that, contrary to the ‘new wars’ thesis, the human impact of civil conflict is considerably lower in the post-Cold War period. We argue that this pattern reflects the decline of ideological conflict, the restraining influence of globalization on governments, and the increasing rarity of superpower campaigns of destabilization and counter-insurgency through proxy warfare.
The gendered nature of war has been a consistent pattern throughout modern history. War is gender... more The gendered nature of war has been a consistent pattern throughout modern history. War is gendered in terms of who participates, as well as who it affects and how. Gender is also relevant to the causes and consequences of armed conflict.