Hugh Possingham | The University of Queensland, Australia (original) (raw)

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Papers by Hugh Possingham

Nature communications, Jan 14, 2015

Multinational conservation initiatives that prioritize investment across a region invariably navi... more Multinational conservation initiatives that prioritize investment across a region invariably navigate trade-offs among multiple objectives. It seems logical to focus where several objectives can be achieved efficiently, but such multi-objective hotspots may be ecologically inappropriate, or politically inequitable. Here we devise a framework to facilitate a regionally cohesive set of marine-protected areas driven by national preferences and supported by quantitative conservation prioritization analyses, and illustrate it using the Coral Triangle Initiative. We identify areas important for achieving six objectives to address ecosystem representation, threatened fauna, connectivity and climate change. We expose trade-offs between areas that contribute substantially to several objectives and those meeting one or two objectives extremely well. Hence there are two strategies to guide countries choosing to implement regional goals nationally: multi-objective hotspots and complementary set...

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity and its impacts can act synergistically t... more Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity and its impacts can act synergistically to heighten the severity of other threats. Most research on projecting species range shifts under climate change has not been translated to informing priority management strategies on the ground. We develop a prioritization framework to assess strategies for managing threats to biodiversity under climate change and apply it to the management of invasive animal species across one sixth of the Australian continent, the Lake Eyre Basin. We collected information from key stakeholders and experts on the impacts of invasive animals on 148 of the region's most threatened species and 11 potential strategies. Assisted by models of current distributions of threatened species and their projected distributions, experts estimated the cost, feasibility and potential benefits of each strategy for improving the persistence of threatened species with and without climate change. We discover that the relative cost-effectiveness of invasive animal control strategies is robust to climate change, with the management of feral pigs being the highest priority for conserving threatened species overall. Complementary sets of strategies to protect as many threatened species as possible under limited budgets change when climate change is considered, with additional strategies required to avoid impending extinctions from the region. Overall we find that the ranking of strategies by cost-effectiveness was relatively unaffected by including climate change into decision-making, even though the benefits of the strategies were lower. Future climate conditions and impacts on range shifts become most important to consider when designing comprehensive management plans for the control of invasive animals under limited budgets to maximize the number of threatened species that can be protected.

Geographic range size is often conceptualized as a fixed attribute of a species and treated as su... more Geographic range size is often conceptualized as a fixed attribute of a species and treated as such for the purposes of quantification of extinction risk; species occupying smaller geographic ranges are assumed to have a higher risk of extinction, all else being equal. However many species are mobile, and their movements range from relatively predictable to-and-fro migrations to complex irregular movements shown by nomadic species. These movements can lead to substantial temporary expansion and contraction of geographic ranges, potentially to levels which may pose an extinction risk. By linking occurrence data with environmental conditions at the time of observations of nomadic species, we modeled the dynamic distributions of 43 arid-zone nomadic bird species across the Australian continent for each month over 11 years and calculated minimum range size and extent of fluctuation in geographic range size from these models. There was enormous variability in predicted spatial distribution over time; 10 species varied in estimated geographic range size by more than an order of magnitude, and 2 species varied by >2 orders of magnitude. During times of poor environmental conditions, several species not currently classified as globally threatened contracted their ranges to very small areas, despite their normally large geographic range size. This finding raises questions about the adequacy of conventional assessments of extinction risk based on static geographic range size (e.g., IUCN Red Listing). Climate change is predicted to affect the pattern of resource fluctuations across much of the southern hemisphere, where nomadism is the dominant form of animal movement, so it is critical we begin to understand the consequences of this for accurate threat assessment of nomadic species. Our approach provides a tool for discovering spatial dynamics in highly mobile species and can be used to unlock valuable information for improved extinction risk assessment and conservation planning.

The Journal of animal ecology, 2012

Science (New York, N.Y.), 2012

Integrative and comparative biology, 2012

Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America, 2012

Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America, 2012

Surrogate taxa are used widely to represent attributes of other taxa for which data are sparse or... more Surrogate taxa are used widely to represent attributes of other taxa for which data are sparse or absent. Because surveying and monitoring marine biodiversity is resource intensive, our understanding and management of marine systems will need to rely on the availability of effective surrogates. The ability of any marine taxon to adequately represent another, however, is largely unknown because there are rarely sufficient data for multiple taxa in the same region(s). Here, we defined a taxonomic group to be a surrogate for another taxonomic group if they possessed similar assemblage patterns. We investigated effects on surrogate performance of (1) grouping species by taxon at various levels of resolution, (2) selective removal of rare species from analysis, and (3) the number of clusters used to define assemblages, using samples for 11 phyla distributed across 1189 sites sampled from the seabed of Australia's Great Barrier Reef. This spatially and taxonomically comprehensive data set provided an opportunity for extensive testing of surrogate performance in a tropical marine system using these three approaches for the first time, as resource and data constraints were previously limiting. We measured surrogate performance as to how similarly sampling sites were divided into assemblages between taxa. For each taxonomic group independently, we grouped sites into assemblages using Hellinger distances and medoid clustering. We then used a similarity index to quantify the concordance of assemblages between all pairs of taxonomic groups. Surrogates performed better when taxa were grouped at a phylum level, compared to taxa grouped at a finer taxonomic resolution, and were unaffected by the exclusion of spatially rare species. Mean surrogate performance increased as the number of clusters decreased. Moreover, no taxonomic group was a particularly good surrogate for any other, suggesting that the use of any one (or few) group(s) for mapping seabed biodiversity patterns is imprudent; sampling several taxonomic groups appears to be essential for understanding tropical/subtropical seabed communities. Consequently, where resource constraints do not allow complete surveying of biodiversity, it may be preferable to exclude rare species to allow investment in a broader range of taxonomic groups.

Journal of environmental management, 2013

Theoretical population biology, 2012

Science (New York, N.Y.), 2013

Biodiversity and …, Jan 1, 2007

Biological …, Jan 1, 1994

... The business of biodiversity: Applying decision theory principles to nature conservation.Poss... more ... The business of biodiversity: Applying decision theory principles to nature conservation.Possingham, H. (2001) The business of biodiversity: Applying decision theory principles to nature conservation. Tela, 9 : 1-44. Document type: Journal Article. ... Author(s), Possingham, H. ...

Ecological Applications, Jan 1, 2006

Nature communications, Jan 14, 2015

Multinational conservation initiatives that prioritize investment across a region invariably navi... more Multinational conservation initiatives that prioritize investment across a region invariably navigate trade-offs among multiple objectives. It seems logical to focus where several objectives can be achieved efficiently, but such multi-objective hotspots may be ecologically inappropriate, or politically inequitable. Here we devise a framework to facilitate a regionally cohesive set of marine-protected areas driven by national preferences and supported by quantitative conservation prioritization analyses, and illustrate it using the Coral Triangle Initiative. We identify areas important for achieving six objectives to address ecosystem representation, threatened fauna, connectivity and climate change. We expose trade-offs between areas that contribute substantially to several objectives and those meeting one or two objectives extremely well. Hence there are two strategies to guide countries choosing to implement regional goals nationally: multi-objective hotspots and complementary set...

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity and its impacts can act synergistically t... more Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity and its impacts can act synergistically to heighten the severity of other threats. Most research on projecting species range shifts under climate change has not been translated to informing priority management strategies on the ground. We develop a prioritization framework to assess strategies for managing threats to biodiversity under climate change and apply it to the management of invasive animal species across one sixth of the Australian continent, the Lake Eyre Basin. We collected information from key stakeholders and experts on the impacts of invasive animals on 148 of the region's most threatened species and 11 potential strategies. Assisted by models of current distributions of threatened species and their projected distributions, experts estimated the cost, feasibility and potential benefits of each strategy for improving the persistence of threatened species with and without climate change. We discover that the relative cost-effectiveness of invasive animal control strategies is robust to climate change, with the management of feral pigs being the highest priority for conserving threatened species overall. Complementary sets of strategies to protect as many threatened species as possible under limited budgets change when climate change is considered, with additional strategies required to avoid impending extinctions from the region. Overall we find that the ranking of strategies by cost-effectiveness was relatively unaffected by including climate change into decision-making, even though the benefits of the strategies were lower. Future climate conditions and impacts on range shifts become most important to consider when designing comprehensive management plans for the control of invasive animals under limited budgets to maximize the number of threatened species that can be protected.

Geographic range size is often conceptualized as a fixed attribute of a species and treated as su... more Geographic range size is often conceptualized as a fixed attribute of a species and treated as such for the purposes of quantification of extinction risk; species occupying smaller geographic ranges are assumed to have a higher risk of extinction, all else being equal. However many species are mobile, and their movements range from relatively predictable to-and-fro migrations to complex irregular movements shown by nomadic species. These movements can lead to substantial temporary expansion and contraction of geographic ranges, potentially to levels which may pose an extinction risk. By linking occurrence data with environmental conditions at the time of observations of nomadic species, we modeled the dynamic distributions of 43 arid-zone nomadic bird species across the Australian continent for each month over 11 years and calculated minimum range size and extent of fluctuation in geographic range size from these models. There was enormous variability in predicted spatial distribution over time; 10 species varied in estimated geographic range size by more than an order of magnitude, and 2 species varied by >2 orders of magnitude. During times of poor environmental conditions, several species not currently classified as globally threatened contracted their ranges to very small areas, despite their normally large geographic range size. This finding raises questions about the adequacy of conventional assessments of extinction risk based on static geographic range size (e.g., IUCN Red Listing). Climate change is predicted to affect the pattern of resource fluctuations across much of the southern hemisphere, where nomadism is the dominant form of animal movement, so it is critical we begin to understand the consequences of this for accurate threat assessment of nomadic species. Our approach provides a tool for discovering spatial dynamics in highly mobile species and can be used to unlock valuable information for improved extinction risk assessment and conservation planning.

The Journal of animal ecology, 2012

Science (New York, N.Y.), 2012

Integrative and comparative biology, 2012

Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America, 2012

Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America, 2012

Surrogate taxa are used widely to represent attributes of other taxa for which data are sparse or... more Surrogate taxa are used widely to represent attributes of other taxa for which data are sparse or absent. Because surveying and monitoring marine biodiversity is resource intensive, our understanding and management of marine systems will need to rely on the availability of effective surrogates. The ability of any marine taxon to adequately represent another, however, is largely unknown because there are rarely sufficient data for multiple taxa in the same region(s). Here, we defined a taxonomic group to be a surrogate for another taxonomic group if they possessed similar assemblage patterns. We investigated effects on surrogate performance of (1) grouping species by taxon at various levels of resolution, (2) selective removal of rare species from analysis, and (3) the number of clusters used to define assemblages, using samples for 11 phyla distributed across 1189 sites sampled from the seabed of Australia's Great Barrier Reef. This spatially and taxonomically comprehensive data set provided an opportunity for extensive testing of surrogate performance in a tropical marine system using these three approaches for the first time, as resource and data constraints were previously limiting. We measured surrogate performance as to how similarly sampling sites were divided into assemblages between taxa. For each taxonomic group independently, we grouped sites into assemblages using Hellinger distances and medoid clustering. We then used a similarity index to quantify the concordance of assemblages between all pairs of taxonomic groups. Surrogates performed better when taxa were grouped at a phylum level, compared to taxa grouped at a finer taxonomic resolution, and were unaffected by the exclusion of spatially rare species. Mean surrogate performance increased as the number of clusters decreased. Moreover, no taxonomic group was a particularly good surrogate for any other, suggesting that the use of any one (or few) group(s) for mapping seabed biodiversity patterns is imprudent; sampling several taxonomic groups appears to be essential for understanding tropical/subtropical seabed communities. Consequently, where resource constraints do not allow complete surveying of biodiversity, it may be preferable to exclude rare species to allow investment in a broader range of taxonomic groups.

Journal of environmental management, 2013

Theoretical population biology, 2012

Science (New York, N.Y.), 2013

Biodiversity and …, Jan 1, 2007

Biological …, Jan 1, 1994

... The business of biodiversity: Applying decision theory principles to nature conservation.Poss... more ... The business of biodiversity: Applying decision theory principles to nature conservation.Possingham, H. (2001) The business of biodiversity: Applying decision theory principles to nature conservation. Tela, 9 : 1-44. Document type: Journal Article. ... Author(s), Possingham, H. ...

Ecological Applications, Jan 1, 2006

Classifying species according to their risk of extinction is a common practice and underpins much... more Classifying species according to their risk of extinction is a common practice and underpins much conservation activity. The reliability of such classifications rests on the accuracy of threat categorizations, but very little is known about the magnitude and types of errors that might be expected. The process of risk classification involves combining information from many sources, and understanding the quality of each source is critical to evaluating the overall status of the species. One common criterion used to classify extinction risk is a decline in abundance. Because abundance is a direct measure of conservation status, counts of individuals are generally the preferred method of evaluating whether populations are declining. Using the thresholds from criterion A of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List (critically endangered, decline in abundance of >80% over 10 years or 3 generations; endangered, decline in abundance of 50–80%; vulnerable, decline in abundance of 30–50%; least concern or near threatened, decline in abundance of 0–30%), we assessed 3 methods used to detect declines solely from estimates of abundance: use of just 2 estimates of abundance; use of linear regression on a time series of abundance; and use of state-space models on a time series of abundance. We generated simulation data from empirical estimates of the typical variability in abundance and assessed the 3 methods for classification errors. The estimates of the proportion of falsely detected declines for linear regression and the state-space models were low (maximum 3–14%), but 33–75% of small declines (30–50% over 15 years) were not detected. Ignoring uncertainty in estimates of abundance (with just 2 estimates of abundance) allowed more power to detect small declines (95%), but there was a high percentage (50%) of false detections. For all 3 methods, the proportion of declines estimated to be >80% was higher than the true proportion. Use of abundance data to detect species at risk of extinction may either fail to detect initial declines in abundance or have a high error rate.