Marc Elie Ostainvil | Université du Québec en Outaouais (original) (raw)
Papers by Marc Elie Ostainvil
Il s’agit d’une etude comparative de la performance previsionnelle de deux modeles bien connus da... more Il s’agit d’une etude comparative de la performance previsionnelle de deux modeles bien connus dans le domaine de la finance, a savoir le modele CAPM ou MEDAF et le modele d’Arrow-Debreu qui tient compte de l’evaluation du rendement d’un titre contingent, appele titre d’Arrow-Debreu, en absence d’arbitrage. Notre travail se limite a la comparaison du pouvoir predictif des modeles CAPM et Arrow-Debreu. Nous utilisons deux criteres pour determiner lequel de ces deux modeles est vraisemblablement le plus performant au cours de la periode choisie et pour 10 titres determines. Nous proposons a cet effet, un algorithme original pour estimer le rendement d’un titre a l’aide du modele d’Arrow-Debreu. Pour cela Breden et Lutzenberger (1978) et Banz et Miller (1978) ont utilise le modele d’evaluation des options de Black-Scholes pour estimer le prix des titres contingents. Le CAPM, une fois le rendement conditionnel moyen fixe pour chaque etat de la nature, a servi a evaluer le rendement du titre dans chacun des etats possibles de la nature. On trouve pour une annee donnee, le rendement d’Arrow Debreu pour le titre i choisi note RiAD dans tout le document, en faisant la somme sur l’ensemble des etats possibles du produit du rendement du titre contingent a un etat donne de la nature et de la probabilite d’occurrence de cet etat. Le CAPM est aussi utilise separement pour estimer annuellement le rendement du meme titre i. Pour comparer le degre de performance previsionnelle d’un modele par rapport a un autre, nous avons utilise les criteres de MAE (Ecart absolu moyen en francais) et de RMQE (Racine Ecart Quadratique moyen en francais) que nous definirons plus bas. Le modele presentant un MAE ou un RMQE le plus faible est considere comme ayant la meilleure performance previsionnelle des prix des titres choisis pour la periode 1985-2014. A cet effet, nous avons choisi pour mener cette recherche dix (10) titres sur le marche americain durant la periode 1985-2014. Nos resultats ont demontre que pour l’ensemble des titres et la periode consideres, le modele CAPM s’est revele dominant selon les deux criteres RAE et RMQE. Dans notre travail, la moyenne des ecarts obtenue pour les deux criteres etant moins importante pour le modele CAPM que celle trouvee pour le modele d’Arrow Debreu pour la majorite des titres choisis, on pourrait conclure que le modele CAPM serait plus performant que le modele d’Arrow-Debreu (ou du moins l’algorithme simple propose pour evaluer le rendement d’Arrow-Debreu) pour evaluer le rendement des prix des titres. En d’autres termes, pour evaluer le rendement d’un titre donne, le modele CAPM fournirait vraisemblablement des resultats plus proches de la moyenne des valeurs observees des titres que l’algorithme d’estimation du modele d’Arrow-Debreu.
Il s’agit d’une etude comparative de la performance previsionnelle de deux modeles bien connus da... more Il s’agit d’une etude comparative de la performance previsionnelle de deux modeles bien connus dans le domaine de la finance, a savoir le modele CAPM ou MEDAF et le modele d’Arrow-Debreu qui tient compte de l’evaluation du rendement d’un titre contingent, appele titre d’Arrow-Debreu, en absence d’arbitrage. Notre travail se limite a la comparaison du pouvoir predictif des modeles CAPM et Arrow-Debreu. Nous utilisons deux criteres pour determiner lequel de ces deux modeles est vraisemblablement le plus performant au cours de la periode choisie et pour 10 titres determines. Nous proposons a cet effet, un algorithme original pour estimer le rendement d’un titre a l’aide du modele d’Arrow-Debreu. Pour cela Breden et Lutzenberger (1978) et Banz et Miller (1978) ont utilise le modele d’evaluation des options de Black-Scholes pour estimer le prix des titres contingents. Le CAPM, une fois le rendement conditionnel moyen fixe pour chaque etat de la nature, a servi a evaluer le rendement du t...
Ce travail de recherche qui releve du domaine de la finance, traite de la cointegration, du model... more Ce travail de recherche qui releve du domaine de la finance, traite de la cointegration, du modele d’actualisation des dividendes et de l'evaluation des prix des actions. Il etudie la relation existant entre le ratio cours benefices nets d’une entreprise (Price earnings ratio ou P/E) et le ratio prix dividendes (P/D). Les preuves empiriques et theoriques etablies recemment, soutiennent que les cours ne doivent pas etre trop volatiles pour qu’ils soient predits par les modeles d’actualisation des dividendes pris au sens large, c’est-a-dire englobant les dividendes ordinaires plus tout autre versement special. A la lumiere de la crise financiere de 2008, debutee aux Etats-Unis dans le secteur immobilier, et qui par la suite s’est propagee au niveau mondial, sur la base des donnees pertinentes relativement aux variables precitees, nous nous proposons de presenter le modele d'actualisation des dividendes qui etudie la relation entre les notions de dividendes et prix des actions ...
Book Reviews by Marc Elie Ostainvil
Revue des Études Haïtiennes, 2024
Abstract This article explores the concept of "inverted democracy" in Haiti, where democratic mec... more Abstract
This article explores the concept of "inverted democracy" in Haiti, where democratic mechanisms, designed to ensure citizen participation and social justice, are hijacked to maintain the privileges of a minority elite. Through an in-depth analysis, it highlights the historical roots of this phenomenon, current institutional challenges, and potential solutions for inclusive governance.
The article begins with a historical overview of Haiti, emphasizing the fractures created by the independence debt, excessive centralization of power, and foreign interference. These factors weakened public institutions and limited their ability to meet the needs of the majority. Electoral processes, often manipulated, and systemic corruption are also identified as major obstacles to citizen participation and democratic legitimacy.
The analysis reveals that Haiti’s chronic dependence on international aid has undermined its national sovereignty while exacerbating social and economic inequalities. The findings show that deficient infrastructure, lack of access to basic services, and the exclusion of marginalized populations fuel a cycle of poverty and political disengagement.
Despite these challenges, opportunities for transformation emerge. The article proposes ambitious institutional reforms, such as strengthening mechanisms for transparency and accountability, and calls for collective mobilization, including the diaspora, to rebuild equitable governance. It also highlights the importance of investing in the local economy, particularly in agriculture and small businesses, to reduce external dependence and promote inclusive growth.
In conclusion, this article emphasizes that, although the challenges are complex, Haiti possesses the human resources and capacity needed to reverse the dynamics of inverted democracy. It calls for concerted actions to strengthen institutions, promote social justice, and build a society where freedom, equality, and solidarity become tangible realities for all Haitian citizens.
Keywords: Haiti, inverted democracy, public institutions, corruption, economic dependence, citizen participation, institutional reforms, collective mobilization.
Revue des Études Haïtiennes, 2024
Abstract This article explores the concept of "inverted democracy" in Haiti, where democratic mec... more Abstract
This article explores the concept of "inverted democracy" in Haiti, where democratic mechanisms, designed to ensure citizen participation and social justice, are hijacked to maintain the privileges of a minority elite. Through an in-depth analysis, it highlights the historical roots of this phenomenon, current institutional challenges, and potential solutions for inclusive governance.
The article begins with a historical overview of Haiti, emphasizing the fractures created by the independence debt, excessive centralization of power, and foreign interference. These factors weakened public institutions and limited their ability to meet the needs of the majority. Electoral processes, often manipulated, and systemic corruption are also identified as major obstacles to citizen participation and democratic legitimacy.
The analysis reveals that Haiti’s chronic dependence on international aid has undermined its national sovereignty while exacerbating social and economic inequalities. The findings show that deficient infrastructure, lack of access to basic services, and the exclusion of marginalized populations fuel a cycle of poverty and political disengagement.
Despite these challenges, opportunities for transformation emerge. The article proposes ambitious institutional reforms, such as strengthening mechanisms for transparency and accountability, and calls for collective mobilization, including the diaspora, to rebuild equitable governance. It also highlights the importance of investing in the local economy, particularly in agriculture and small businesses, to reduce external dependence and promote inclusive growth.
In conclusion, this article emphasizes that, although the challenges are complex, Haiti possesses the human resources and capacity needed to reverse the dynamics of inverted democracy. It calls for concerted actions to strengthen institutions, promote social justice, and build a society where freedom, equality, and solidarity become tangible realities for all Haitian citizens.
Keywords: Haiti, inverted democracy, public institutions, corruption, economic dependence, citizen participation, institutional reforms, collective mobilization.
Revue des Études Haïtiennes, 2024
Abstract This article explores the concept of "inverted democracy" in Haiti, where democratic mec... more Abstract
This article explores the concept of "inverted democracy" in Haiti, where democratic mechanisms, designed to ensure citizen participation and social justice, are hijacked to maintain the privileges of a minority elite. Through an in-depth analysis, it highlights the historical roots of this phenomenon, current institutional challenges, and potential solutions for inclusive governance.
The article begins with a historical overview of Haiti, emphasizing the fractures created by the independence debt, excessive centralization of power, and foreign interference. These factors weakened public institutions and limited their ability to meet the needs of the majority. Electoral processes, often manipulated, and systemic corruption are also identified as major obstacles to citizen participation and democratic legitimacy.
The analysis reveals that Haiti’s chronic dependence on international aid has undermined its national sovereignty while exacerbating social and economic inequalities. The findings show that deficient infrastructure, lack of access to basic services, and the exclusion of marginalized populations fuel a cycle of poverty and political disengagement.
Despite these challenges, opportunities for transformation emerge. The article proposes ambitious institutional reforms, such as strengthening mechanisms for transparency and accountability, and calls for collective mobilization, including the diaspora, to rebuild equitable governance. It also highlights the importance of investing in the local economy, particularly in agriculture and small businesses, to reduce external dependence and promote inclusive growth.
In conclusion, this article emphasizes that, although the challenges are complex, Haiti possesses the human resources and capacity needed to reverse the dynamics of inverted democracy. It calls for concerted actions to strengthen institutions, promote social justice, and build a society where freedom, equality, and solidarity become tangible realities for all Haitian citizens.
Keywords: Haiti, inverted democracy, public institutions, corruption, economic dependence, citizen participation, institutional reforms, collective mobilization.
Il s’agit d’une etude comparative de la performance previsionnelle de deux modeles bien connus da... more Il s’agit d’une etude comparative de la performance previsionnelle de deux modeles bien connus dans le domaine de la finance, a savoir le modele CAPM ou MEDAF et le modele d’Arrow-Debreu qui tient compte de l’evaluation du rendement d’un titre contingent, appele titre d’Arrow-Debreu, en absence d’arbitrage. Notre travail se limite a la comparaison du pouvoir predictif des modeles CAPM et Arrow-Debreu. Nous utilisons deux criteres pour determiner lequel de ces deux modeles est vraisemblablement le plus performant au cours de la periode choisie et pour 10 titres determines. Nous proposons a cet effet, un algorithme original pour estimer le rendement d’un titre a l’aide du modele d’Arrow-Debreu. Pour cela Breden et Lutzenberger (1978) et Banz et Miller (1978) ont utilise le modele d’evaluation des options de Black-Scholes pour estimer le prix des titres contingents. Le CAPM, une fois le rendement conditionnel moyen fixe pour chaque etat de la nature, a servi a evaluer le rendement du titre dans chacun des etats possibles de la nature. On trouve pour une annee donnee, le rendement d’Arrow Debreu pour le titre i choisi note RiAD dans tout le document, en faisant la somme sur l’ensemble des etats possibles du produit du rendement du titre contingent a un etat donne de la nature et de la probabilite d’occurrence de cet etat. Le CAPM est aussi utilise separement pour estimer annuellement le rendement du meme titre i. Pour comparer le degre de performance previsionnelle d’un modele par rapport a un autre, nous avons utilise les criteres de MAE (Ecart absolu moyen en francais) et de RMQE (Racine Ecart Quadratique moyen en francais) que nous definirons plus bas. Le modele presentant un MAE ou un RMQE le plus faible est considere comme ayant la meilleure performance previsionnelle des prix des titres choisis pour la periode 1985-2014. A cet effet, nous avons choisi pour mener cette recherche dix (10) titres sur le marche americain durant la periode 1985-2014. Nos resultats ont demontre que pour l’ensemble des titres et la periode consideres, le modele CAPM s’est revele dominant selon les deux criteres RAE et RMQE. Dans notre travail, la moyenne des ecarts obtenue pour les deux criteres etant moins importante pour le modele CAPM que celle trouvee pour le modele d’Arrow Debreu pour la majorite des titres choisis, on pourrait conclure que le modele CAPM serait plus performant que le modele d’Arrow-Debreu (ou du moins l’algorithme simple propose pour evaluer le rendement d’Arrow-Debreu) pour evaluer le rendement des prix des titres. En d’autres termes, pour evaluer le rendement d’un titre donne, le modele CAPM fournirait vraisemblablement des resultats plus proches de la moyenne des valeurs observees des titres que l’algorithme d’estimation du modele d’Arrow-Debreu.
Il s’agit d’une etude comparative de la performance previsionnelle de deux modeles bien connus da... more Il s’agit d’une etude comparative de la performance previsionnelle de deux modeles bien connus dans le domaine de la finance, a savoir le modele CAPM ou MEDAF et le modele d’Arrow-Debreu qui tient compte de l’evaluation du rendement d’un titre contingent, appele titre d’Arrow-Debreu, en absence d’arbitrage. Notre travail se limite a la comparaison du pouvoir predictif des modeles CAPM et Arrow-Debreu. Nous utilisons deux criteres pour determiner lequel de ces deux modeles est vraisemblablement le plus performant au cours de la periode choisie et pour 10 titres determines. Nous proposons a cet effet, un algorithme original pour estimer le rendement d’un titre a l’aide du modele d’Arrow-Debreu. Pour cela Breden et Lutzenberger (1978) et Banz et Miller (1978) ont utilise le modele d’evaluation des options de Black-Scholes pour estimer le prix des titres contingents. Le CAPM, une fois le rendement conditionnel moyen fixe pour chaque etat de la nature, a servi a evaluer le rendement du t...
Ce travail de recherche qui releve du domaine de la finance, traite de la cointegration, du model... more Ce travail de recherche qui releve du domaine de la finance, traite de la cointegration, du modele d’actualisation des dividendes et de l'evaluation des prix des actions. Il etudie la relation existant entre le ratio cours benefices nets d’une entreprise (Price earnings ratio ou P/E) et le ratio prix dividendes (P/D). Les preuves empiriques et theoriques etablies recemment, soutiennent que les cours ne doivent pas etre trop volatiles pour qu’ils soient predits par les modeles d’actualisation des dividendes pris au sens large, c’est-a-dire englobant les dividendes ordinaires plus tout autre versement special. A la lumiere de la crise financiere de 2008, debutee aux Etats-Unis dans le secteur immobilier, et qui par la suite s’est propagee au niveau mondial, sur la base des donnees pertinentes relativement aux variables precitees, nous nous proposons de presenter le modele d'actualisation des dividendes qui etudie la relation entre les notions de dividendes et prix des actions ...
Revue des Études Haïtiennes, 2024
Abstract This article explores the concept of "inverted democracy" in Haiti, where democratic mec... more Abstract
This article explores the concept of "inverted democracy" in Haiti, where democratic mechanisms, designed to ensure citizen participation and social justice, are hijacked to maintain the privileges of a minority elite. Through an in-depth analysis, it highlights the historical roots of this phenomenon, current institutional challenges, and potential solutions for inclusive governance.
The article begins with a historical overview of Haiti, emphasizing the fractures created by the independence debt, excessive centralization of power, and foreign interference. These factors weakened public institutions and limited their ability to meet the needs of the majority. Electoral processes, often manipulated, and systemic corruption are also identified as major obstacles to citizen participation and democratic legitimacy.
The analysis reveals that Haiti’s chronic dependence on international aid has undermined its national sovereignty while exacerbating social and economic inequalities. The findings show that deficient infrastructure, lack of access to basic services, and the exclusion of marginalized populations fuel a cycle of poverty and political disengagement.
Despite these challenges, opportunities for transformation emerge. The article proposes ambitious institutional reforms, such as strengthening mechanisms for transparency and accountability, and calls for collective mobilization, including the diaspora, to rebuild equitable governance. It also highlights the importance of investing in the local economy, particularly in agriculture and small businesses, to reduce external dependence and promote inclusive growth.
In conclusion, this article emphasizes that, although the challenges are complex, Haiti possesses the human resources and capacity needed to reverse the dynamics of inverted democracy. It calls for concerted actions to strengthen institutions, promote social justice, and build a society where freedom, equality, and solidarity become tangible realities for all Haitian citizens.
Keywords: Haiti, inverted democracy, public institutions, corruption, economic dependence, citizen participation, institutional reforms, collective mobilization.
Revue des Études Haïtiennes, 2024
Abstract This article explores the concept of "inverted democracy" in Haiti, where democratic mec... more Abstract
This article explores the concept of "inverted democracy" in Haiti, where democratic mechanisms, designed to ensure citizen participation and social justice, are hijacked to maintain the privileges of a minority elite. Through an in-depth analysis, it highlights the historical roots of this phenomenon, current institutional challenges, and potential solutions for inclusive governance.
The article begins with a historical overview of Haiti, emphasizing the fractures created by the independence debt, excessive centralization of power, and foreign interference. These factors weakened public institutions and limited their ability to meet the needs of the majority. Electoral processes, often manipulated, and systemic corruption are also identified as major obstacles to citizen participation and democratic legitimacy.
The analysis reveals that Haiti’s chronic dependence on international aid has undermined its national sovereignty while exacerbating social and economic inequalities. The findings show that deficient infrastructure, lack of access to basic services, and the exclusion of marginalized populations fuel a cycle of poverty and political disengagement.
Despite these challenges, opportunities for transformation emerge. The article proposes ambitious institutional reforms, such as strengthening mechanisms for transparency and accountability, and calls for collective mobilization, including the diaspora, to rebuild equitable governance. It also highlights the importance of investing in the local economy, particularly in agriculture and small businesses, to reduce external dependence and promote inclusive growth.
In conclusion, this article emphasizes that, although the challenges are complex, Haiti possesses the human resources and capacity needed to reverse the dynamics of inverted democracy. It calls for concerted actions to strengthen institutions, promote social justice, and build a society where freedom, equality, and solidarity become tangible realities for all Haitian citizens.
Keywords: Haiti, inverted democracy, public institutions, corruption, economic dependence, citizen participation, institutional reforms, collective mobilization.
Revue des Études Haïtiennes, 2024
Abstract This article explores the concept of "inverted democracy" in Haiti, where democratic mec... more Abstract
This article explores the concept of "inverted democracy" in Haiti, where democratic mechanisms, designed to ensure citizen participation and social justice, are hijacked to maintain the privileges of a minority elite. Through an in-depth analysis, it highlights the historical roots of this phenomenon, current institutional challenges, and potential solutions for inclusive governance.
The article begins with a historical overview of Haiti, emphasizing the fractures created by the independence debt, excessive centralization of power, and foreign interference. These factors weakened public institutions and limited their ability to meet the needs of the majority. Electoral processes, often manipulated, and systemic corruption are also identified as major obstacles to citizen participation and democratic legitimacy.
The analysis reveals that Haiti’s chronic dependence on international aid has undermined its national sovereignty while exacerbating social and economic inequalities. The findings show that deficient infrastructure, lack of access to basic services, and the exclusion of marginalized populations fuel a cycle of poverty and political disengagement.
Despite these challenges, opportunities for transformation emerge. The article proposes ambitious institutional reforms, such as strengthening mechanisms for transparency and accountability, and calls for collective mobilization, including the diaspora, to rebuild equitable governance. It also highlights the importance of investing in the local economy, particularly in agriculture and small businesses, to reduce external dependence and promote inclusive growth.
In conclusion, this article emphasizes that, although the challenges are complex, Haiti possesses the human resources and capacity needed to reverse the dynamics of inverted democracy. It calls for concerted actions to strengthen institutions, promote social justice, and build a society where freedom, equality, and solidarity become tangible realities for all Haitian citizens.
Keywords: Haiti, inverted democracy, public institutions, corruption, economic dependence, citizen participation, institutional reforms, collective mobilization.