Lorena Barberia | Universidade de São Paulo (original) (raw)
Journal Articles by Lorena Barberia
A national laboratory-based surveillance system was adapted to monitor the situation of SARS-CoV-... more A national laboratory-based surveillance system was adapted to monitor the situation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil. The objective of the study was to compare the challenges in implementing COVID-19 surveillance strategies based on the Ministry of Health's (MoH) distribution of RT-PCR tests to different types of laboratories. This retrospective study analyzed the MoH's testing policies and distribution of RT-PCR tests to laboratories during the first, second, and third waves. Recipient laboratories were divided into groups: public health laboratories that belonged to the national network of public health laboratories (Group 1); public laboratories granted authorization during the pandemic (Group 2); and High-Capacity Testing Centers (Group 3). We analyzed the timing and duration of COVID-19 testing policies and the allocation of tests to laboratories by group and wave. Using t-tests, we analyzed the difference in the weekly average of tests distributed to labs by group and using Pearson's correlation coefficient, analyzed the test distribution according to infection and death rates. Between epiweek 9, 2020, and epiweek 22, 2022, the MoH distributed an average of 263,004 RT-PCR tests per week. The weekly average of tests distributed was highest in the second wave (310,327 tests), followed by the first (218,005 tests) and third waves (201,226 tests). There was a significant increase in the mean weekly tests distributed in the second wave compared to the first and third waves (p = 0.047; IC 8.29-1110.71). We found a significant difference between the weekly average of tests distributed in the first and second wave (p < 0.001; IC-209.83-76.20) to Group 2. Group 3 received the second-highest number of tests from the MoH overall, with PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH
Global Health Research and Policy, 2022
Background: Surveillance efforts are essential to pandemic control, especially where the state is... more Background: Surveillance efforts are essential to pandemic control, especially where the state is the primary health provider, such as Brazil. When public health testing guidelines limit molecular tests, there are reductions in detection efforts aimed at early recognition, isolation, and treatment of those infected with the virus. This study evaluates the effectiveness of surveillance policies to control the COVID-19 pandemic in São Paulo. Methods: We conducted an interrupted time series analysis with a segmented regression model to analyze if changes in the state's guidelines improved RT-PCR testing outcomes in Brazil's most affluent and largest state, São Paulo. Anonymized daily data on the RT-PCR tests conducted in public laboratories belonging to the statewide network from March 1, 2020 to June 5, 2021 were extracted from the Sao Paulo State open-source database, while the data on the genomic sequences were obtained from GISAID. We then aggregated these data for the 17 regional health departments in the state to evaluate regional-level outcomes. Results: The public health system restricted RT-PCR testing to hospitalized cases in the first months. Testing was expanded to permit symptomatic testing of non-hospitalized persons only in July 2020, but a statistically significant increase in surveillance efforts was not observed. Case definition was expanded to allow case confirmation based on clinical, laboratory and image data criteria other than an RT-PCR test without increasing the testing effort for asymptomatic suspicious cases in September 2020. There was an increase in the mean volume of testing in each RHD, but the test positivity rate increased due to insufficient testing expansion. Results also show an uneven improvement in testing outcomes following these changes across the state's regional health departments. Conclusions: Evidence suggests that lower RT-PCR testing and genomic surveillance efforts are associated with areas characterized by a higher population concentration and a greater population reliance on the public health system. Our results highlight the need to structure health surveillance and information systems for disease control and prevention in emergency settings considering local demographics and vulnerabilities. In high prevalence settings, efforts at identifying and including vulnerable populations in routine and enhanced surveillance programs during COVID-19 must be significantly improved.
Revista USP, 2021
Desde o início da pandemia de covid-19, houve grande interesse acerca do papel intermediário exer... more Desde o início da pandemia de covid-19, houve grande interesse acerca do papel intermediário exercido pela política e da maneira pela qual ela afeta decisões governamentais e individuais sobre o desenvolvimento e a procura por vacinas, bem como da implementação da vacinação. Um fator adicional que tem contribuído para a politização desses processos tem sido a difusão de informações falsas através das mídias sociais relacionadas ao vírus e às vacinas. Neste artigo, exploramos
a forma como as atitudes acerca dos imunizantes desenvolvidos para
proteger a população dos sintomas mais graves causados pelo Sars-Cov-2 estão correlacionadas com a ideologia. Utilizamos os dados provenientes da pesquisa “Valores em Crise” para analisar em que medida as atitudes dos eleitores em relação à vacinação afetam
a probabilidade individual de vacinação contra o Sars-Cov-2.
Lancet Regional Health Americas, 2021
School reopening and COVID-19 in Brazil
Revita de Administração Pública , 2021
In Brazil, sub-national governments have played a particularly important role as the key actors i... more In Brazil, sub-national governments have played a particularly important role as the key actors implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions to halt the spread of COVID-19. Building on the methodology proposed by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), we coded the stringency levels of state-level school, commerce, services, industry, public gathering, and private event closure policies and describe these actions' duration at the state-level in Brazil from early February to mid-May 2020. Our results suggest significant heterogeneity across Brazil and across weeks in social distancing policy stringency during this period. We then apply dynamic times-series cross-sectional methods to evaluate the effect of anti-contagion policies on the population's mobility using cell phone location data. We find that anti-contagion policies had a significant effect on producing higher adherence to remaining at home even though social distancing policies were relatively moderate as compared to other countries. Our results also suggest that social distancing policies have a greater impact when a more complete and coherent set of policies were introduced and sustained by state governments.
The relationship between peace and health is complex, multifactorial and fraught with challenges ... more The relationship between peace and health is complex, multifactorial and fraught with challenges of definitions, measurements and outcomes. This exploratory commentary on this nexus within a focus on the Americas posits this challenge clearly and calls for more scholarship and empirical work on this issue from an interdisciplinary perspective. The overall goal of this paper is to try and explore the elements that impact the relationship between peace and health with a focus on the Americas (defined as countries spanning from Canada to Argentina) in the post-Cold war period. Focusing on the 1990s and onwards, we seek to underscore why violence continues to permeate these societies despite a third and lasting wave of democratisation in the hemisphere. We hope this will allow a more robust dialogue on peace and health in the regional and global health literature.
Brazilian Political Science Review, 2022
Several recent studies have investigated if support for Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential electi... more Several recent studies have investigated if support for Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential election of 2018 is positively associated with COVID-19 infections and deaths in Brazil. In these studies, COVID-19 outcomes in 2020 and 2021 are the dependent variables, and votes for Jair Bolsonaro in the 2018 presidential election (as a proxy for ideology) are the key explanatory variable. This article discusses why ecological research designs are difficult to test empirically. We discuss why correlations between vote shares and COVID-19 outcomes using aggregate data can produce biased inferences, and we specifically focus on measurement error, aggregation bias, and spatial and temporal dynamics.
Informação de qualidade para aperfeiçoar as políticas públicas e salvar vidas Principais Resultad... more Informação de qualidade para aperfeiçoar as políticas públicas e salvar vidas Principais Resultados • Aproximadamente 18,1 milhões dos adolescentes nas faixas etárias entre 12 e 17 anos começaram a receber imunizantes para proteção para o SARS-CoV-2 em setembro de 2021. No início de outubro, 8% dessa faixa etária contavam com a imunização completa com duas doses e 70% contam com a imunização com uma dose. Aproximadamente 5 milhões de brasileiros nessa faixa etária ainda não tinham recebido nenhuma dose. • Enquanto aumenta a taxa de vacinação de adultos e adolescentes de 12 anos ou mais no Brasil, as crianças de menor idade não são elegíveis para a vacinação contra o SARS-CoV-2. Utilizando a estimativa do IBGE de que a população de 0-11 anos no Brasil representa 16,6%, há, aproximadamente, 35,2 milhões de brasileiros que não contam ainda com uma aprovação de vacina imunizante para a COVID-19. • Com o retorno presencial, os protocolos de biossegurança, que são o instrumento de gestão de risco, também se mostraram insuficientes na adoção de medidas recomendadas e eficazes no combate à transmissão do vírus SARS-CoV-2 nos ambientes escolares. Os governos estaduais Nota Técnica No. 36 Crianças e jovens menores de 12 anos permanecem sem acesso à vacina para a COVID-19 no Brasil, e apenas 8% dos jovens entre 12 e 17 anos contam com a imunização completa. Em momento delicado de retorno às aulas presenciais, essa população com menos de 18 anos, que representa quase 25% da população do país, tem sido negligenciada nos esforços em detectar o vírus por meio do uso de testes e nas análises sobre o possível aumento na incidência de casos, hospitalizações, óbitos e sequelas causadas pela infecção por COVID-19.
Nature Medicine, 2021
Brazil needs a coordinated and cooperative approach to tackle COVID-19 To the Editor-After more t... more Brazil needs a coordinated and cooperative approach to tackle COVID-19 To the Editor-After more than 14 months under siege, Brazilians continue to suffer as they see thousands of people dying every day, killed by the fast-moving respiratory pathogen SARS-CoV-2. Families are struggling to secure their livelihoods, quell hunger and, in some cases, adjust to the long-term toll of having survived infection with SARS-CoV-2. With the surge in cases, overcrowding of hospitals and high lethality, those on the front lines understand that Brazil is at war with COVID-19. The assault has been brutal 1. A quarter of all deaths from COVID-19 in Brazil were officially recorded in April 2021. Meanwhile, a SARS-CoV-2 variant
Science, 2021
Brazil has been severely hit by COVID-19, with rapid spatial spread of both cases and deaths. We ... more Brazil has been severely hit by COVID-19, with rapid spatial spread of both cases and deaths. We use daily data on reported cases and deaths to understand, measure, and compare the spatiotemporal pattern of the spread across municipalities. Indicators of clustering, trajectories, speed, and intensity of the movement of COVID-19 to interior areas, combined with indices of policy measures show that while no single narrative explains the diversity in the spread, an overall failure of implementing prompt, coordinated, and equitable responses in a context of stark local inequalities fueled disease spread. This resulted in high and unequal infection and mortality burdens. With a current surge in cases and deaths and several variants of concern in circulation, failure to mitigate the spread could further aggravate the burden.
Revista de Administração Pública, 2021
In Brazil, sub-national governments have played a particularly important role as the key actors i... more In Brazil, sub-national governments have played a particularly important role as the key actors implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions to halt the spread of COVID-19. Building on the methodology proposed by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), we coded the stringency levels of state-level school, commerce, services, industry, public gathering, and private event closure policies and describe these actions’ duration at the state-level in Brazil from early February to mid-May 2020. Our results suggest significant heterogeneity across Brazil and across weeks in social distancing policy stringency during this period. We then apply dynamic times-series cross-sectional methods to evaluate the effect of anti-contagion policies on the population’s mobility using cell phone location data. We find that anti-contagion policies had a significant effect on producing higher adherence to remaining at home even though social distancing policies were relatively moderate as compared to other countries. Our results also suggest that social distancing policies have a greater impact when a more complete and coherent set of policies were introduced and sustained by state governments.
Brazilian Political Science Review, 2018
In this study, we seek to contribute to discussions on how the quality of academic production in ... more In this study, we seek to contribute to discussions on how the quality of academic production in the field of political science should be evaluated using Brazil as a case study. We contrast the 'expert-driven approach' that is followed by CAPES, an agency of the Brazilian federal government with the 'citational' approach, which is based on the ranking of journals by mainstream indices of scientific research impact. With data provided by CAPES from 2010 to 2014, we examine to what extent journals that are ranked as having high quality by CAPES also have high impact indexes in the SCImago Journal rank index (SJR), the Hirsch index (h-index) calculated by SCImago, the h5-index and h5-median (based on the h-index period 05 years, calculated by Google Scholar Metrics), and the SNIP indicator (calculated by the CWTS Journal Indicators, included in the Scopus database). Our findings show that there is a positive, but weak correlation between citational criteria and the Qualis evaluation of the same journals. In ordered logistic regressions, we show that a journal's past Qualis scores are the most important factor for explaining its grades in the next evaluation. We show that once a journal's past Qualis score is considered, a journal's citational ranking does not influence its Qualis score with the exception of the SJR in the 2013-4 evaluation. Moreover, a journal's Qualis score is not influenced by the country of publication, language, or social science focus, all else equal.
Embora houve um aumento significativo na porcentagem de mulheres que ocupam posições de liderança... more Embora houve um aumento significativo na porcentagem de mulheres que ocupam posições de liderança política, as mulheres ainda são sub-representadas nos parlamentos, principalmente, quando se compara a porcentagem de eleitores do sexo feminino com a porcentagem de mulheres eleitas. Neste estudo, elaboramos uma revisão sobre os principais achados da literatura que busca explicar a baixa presença de mulheres na política. Para refletir sobre a sub-representação feminina na política brasileira, utilizamos tanto da literatura que analisa, especificamente, o caso brasileiro, co-mo também de estudos que tratam de casos-chave e de estudos comparados.
Health policy and planning, 2013
This study contributes to the health governance discussion by presenting a new data set that allo... more This study contributes to the health governance discussion by presenting a new data set that allows for comparisons of the management of health resources among Brazilian municipalities. Research on Brazil is particularly important as the provision of health services was decentralized in 1988 and since then municipalities have been given greater responsibilities for the management of fiscal resources for public health service provision. Based on detailed information on corruption practices (such as over-invoicing, illegal procurement and fake receipts) from audit reports of health programmes in 980 randomly selected Brazilian municipalities, this study deepens understanding of the relationship between health governance institutions and the incidence of corruption at the local level by exploring the extent to which horizontal and vertical accountabilities contribute to reducing the propensity of municipal government officials to divert public health resources for private gain. The results of our multiple regression analysis suggest that the experience of health municipal councils is correlated with reductions in the incidence of corruption in public health programmes. This impact is significant over time, with each additional year of health council experience reducing corruption incidence levels by 2.1% from baseline values. The findings reported in this study do not rely on the subjectivity of corruption measures which usually conflate the actual incidence of corruption with its perception by informants. Based on our results, we provide recommendations that can assist policy makers to reduce corruption.
Geoforum, 2010
Local economic development policies have surged in Brazil over the past decade—a major shift in t... more Local economic development policies have surged in Brazil over the past decade—a major shift in this regionally diverse country of 27 states, over 5000 municipalities, and the largest economy in Latin America. We review the stylized facts, expected patterns and policy recommendations from the foundational studies in regional and urban economics. We then provide a summary of a more recent stream of scholarship focused on local economic development (LED) studies in developed and developing countries that have surged in the last 20 years. Based on this review, we then systemize the findings emerging from studies focused on analyzing local economic development policies in Brazil recognizing the distinctive contributions emerging from both the empirical and the case studies literatures. We identify key lessons for (and from) the Brazilian experience and conclude that Brazil and Latin American countries need a new generation of studies that undertake more rigorous evaluations of these policy experiments. Finally, we recommend steps to advance such research.
ABSTRACT Abstract will be provided by author.
literature on political business cycles has produced important insights on the extent to which po... more literature on political business cycles has produced important insights on the extent to which politicians attempt to manipulate government monetary and fiscal policies to influence electoral outcomes. In particular, some of the strongest evidence produced to date suggests that electoral cycles are particularly marked in the case of government expenditures.
Elections and Globalization on the Welfare State, …, 2008
A national laboratory-based surveillance system was adapted to monitor the situation of SARS-CoV-... more A national laboratory-based surveillance system was adapted to monitor the situation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil. The objective of the study was to compare the challenges in implementing COVID-19 surveillance strategies based on the Ministry of Health's (MoH) distribution of RT-PCR tests to different types of laboratories. This retrospective study analyzed the MoH's testing policies and distribution of RT-PCR tests to laboratories during the first, second, and third waves. Recipient laboratories were divided into groups: public health laboratories that belonged to the national network of public health laboratories (Group 1); public laboratories granted authorization during the pandemic (Group 2); and High-Capacity Testing Centers (Group 3). We analyzed the timing and duration of COVID-19 testing policies and the allocation of tests to laboratories by group and wave. Using t-tests, we analyzed the difference in the weekly average of tests distributed to labs by group and using Pearson's correlation coefficient, analyzed the test distribution according to infection and death rates. Between epiweek 9, 2020, and epiweek 22, 2022, the MoH distributed an average of 263,004 RT-PCR tests per week. The weekly average of tests distributed was highest in the second wave (310,327 tests), followed by the first (218,005 tests) and third waves (201,226 tests). There was a significant increase in the mean weekly tests distributed in the second wave compared to the first and third waves (p = 0.047; IC 8.29-1110.71). We found a significant difference between the weekly average of tests distributed in the first and second wave (p < 0.001; IC-209.83-76.20) to Group 2. Group 3 received the second-highest number of tests from the MoH overall, with PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH
Global Health Research and Policy, 2022
Background: Surveillance efforts are essential to pandemic control, especially where the state is... more Background: Surveillance efforts are essential to pandemic control, especially where the state is the primary health provider, such as Brazil. When public health testing guidelines limit molecular tests, there are reductions in detection efforts aimed at early recognition, isolation, and treatment of those infected with the virus. This study evaluates the effectiveness of surveillance policies to control the COVID-19 pandemic in São Paulo. Methods: We conducted an interrupted time series analysis with a segmented regression model to analyze if changes in the state's guidelines improved RT-PCR testing outcomes in Brazil's most affluent and largest state, São Paulo. Anonymized daily data on the RT-PCR tests conducted in public laboratories belonging to the statewide network from March 1, 2020 to June 5, 2021 were extracted from the Sao Paulo State open-source database, while the data on the genomic sequences were obtained from GISAID. We then aggregated these data for the 17 regional health departments in the state to evaluate regional-level outcomes. Results: The public health system restricted RT-PCR testing to hospitalized cases in the first months. Testing was expanded to permit symptomatic testing of non-hospitalized persons only in July 2020, but a statistically significant increase in surveillance efforts was not observed. Case definition was expanded to allow case confirmation based on clinical, laboratory and image data criteria other than an RT-PCR test without increasing the testing effort for asymptomatic suspicious cases in September 2020. There was an increase in the mean volume of testing in each RHD, but the test positivity rate increased due to insufficient testing expansion. Results also show an uneven improvement in testing outcomes following these changes across the state's regional health departments. Conclusions: Evidence suggests that lower RT-PCR testing and genomic surveillance efforts are associated with areas characterized by a higher population concentration and a greater population reliance on the public health system. Our results highlight the need to structure health surveillance and information systems for disease control and prevention in emergency settings considering local demographics and vulnerabilities. In high prevalence settings, efforts at identifying and including vulnerable populations in routine and enhanced surveillance programs during COVID-19 must be significantly improved.
Revista USP, 2021
Desde o início da pandemia de covid-19, houve grande interesse acerca do papel intermediário exer... more Desde o início da pandemia de covid-19, houve grande interesse acerca do papel intermediário exercido pela política e da maneira pela qual ela afeta decisões governamentais e individuais sobre o desenvolvimento e a procura por vacinas, bem como da implementação da vacinação. Um fator adicional que tem contribuído para a politização desses processos tem sido a difusão de informações falsas através das mídias sociais relacionadas ao vírus e às vacinas. Neste artigo, exploramos
a forma como as atitudes acerca dos imunizantes desenvolvidos para
proteger a população dos sintomas mais graves causados pelo Sars-Cov-2 estão correlacionadas com a ideologia. Utilizamos os dados provenientes da pesquisa “Valores em Crise” para analisar em que medida as atitudes dos eleitores em relação à vacinação afetam
a probabilidade individual de vacinação contra o Sars-Cov-2.
Lancet Regional Health Americas, 2021
School reopening and COVID-19 in Brazil
Revita de Administração Pública , 2021
In Brazil, sub-national governments have played a particularly important role as the key actors i... more In Brazil, sub-national governments have played a particularly important role as the key actors implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions to halt the spread of COVID-19. Building on the methodology proposed by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), we coded the stringency levels of state-level school, commerce, services, industry, public gathering, and private event closure policies and describe these actions' duration at the state-level in Brazil from early February to mid-May 2020. Our results suggest significant heterogeneity across Brazil and across weeks in social distancing policy stringency during this period. We then apply dynamic times-series cross-sectional methods to evaluate the effect of anti-contagion policies on the population's mobility using cell phone location data. We find that anti-contagion policies had a significant effect on producing higher adherence to remaining at home even though social distancing policies were relatively moderate as compared to other countries. Our results also suggest that social distancing policies have a greater impact when a more complete and coherent set of policies were introduced and sustained by state governments.
The relationship between peace and health is complex, multifactorial and fraught with challenges ... more The relationship between peace and health is complex, multifactorial and fraught with challenges of definitions, measurements and outcomes. This exploratory commentary on this nexus within a focus on the Americas posits this challenge clearly and calls for more scholarship and empirical work on this issue from an interdisciplinary perspective. The overall goal of this paper is to try and explore the elements that impact the relationship between peace and health with a focus on the Americas (defined as countries spanning from Canada to Argentina) in the post-Cold war period. Focusing on the 1990s and onwards, we seek to underscore why violence continues to permeate these societies despite a third and lasting wave of democratisation in the hemisphere. We hope this will allow a more robust dialogue on peace and health in the regional and global health literature.
Brazilian Political Science Review, 2022
Several recent studies have investigated if support for Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential electi... more Several recent studies have investigated if support for Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential election of 2018 is positively associated with COVID-19 infections and deaths in Brazil. In these studies, COVID-19 outcomes in 2020 and 2021 are the dependent variables, and votes for Jair Bolsonaro in the 2018 presidential election (as a proxy for ideology) are the key explanatory variable. This article discusses why ecological research designs are difficult to test empirically. We discuss why correlations between vote shares and COVID-19 outcomes using aggregate data can produce biased inferences, and we specifically focus on measurement error, aggregation bias, and spatial and temporal dynamics.
Informação de qualidade para aperfeiçoar as políticas públicas e salvar vidas Principais Resultad... more Informação de qualidade para aperfeiçoar as políticas públicas e salvar vidas Principais Resultados • Aproximadamente 18,1 milhões dos adolescentes nas faixas etárias entre 12 e 17 anos começaram a receber imunizantes para proteção para o SARS-CoV-2 em setembro de 2021. No início de outubro, 8% dessa faixa etária contavam com a imunização completa com duas doses e 70% contam com a imunização com uma dose. Aproximadamente 5 milhões de brasileiros nessa faixa etária ainda não tinham recebido nenhuma dose. • Enquanto aumenta a taxa de vacinação de adultos e adolescentes de 12 anos ou mais no Brasil, as crianças de menor idade não são elegíveis para a vacinação contra o SARS-CoV-2. Utilizando a estimativa do IBGE de que a população de 0-11 anos no Brasil representa 16,6%, há, aproximadamente, 35,2 milhões de brasileiros que não contam ainda com uma aprovação de vacina imunizante para a COVID-19. • Com o retorno presencial, os protocolos de biossegurança, que são o instrumento de gestão de risco, também se mostraram insuficientes na adoção de medidas recomendadas e eficazes no combate à transmissão do vírus SARS-CoV-2 nos ambientes escolares. Os governos estaduais Nota Técnica No. 36 Crianças e jovens menores de 12 anos permanecem sem acesso à vacina para a COVID-19 no Brasil, e apenas 8% dos jovens entre 12 e 17 anos contam com a imunização completa. Em momento delicado de retorno às aulas presenciais, essa população com menos de 18 anos, que representa quase 25% da população do país, tem sido negligenciada nos esforços em detectar o vírus por meio do uso de testes e nas análises sobre o possível aumento na incidência de casos, hospitalizações, óbitos e sequelas causadas pela infecção por COVID-19.
Nature Medicine, 2021
Brazil needs a coordinated and cooperative approach to tackle COVID-19 To the Editor-After more t... more Brazil needs a coordinated and cooperative approach to tackle COVID-19 To the Editor-After more than 14 months under siege, Brazilians continue to suffer as they see thousands of people dying every day, killed by the fast-moving respiratory pathogen SARS-CoV-2. Families are struggling to secure their livelihoods, quell hunger and, in some cases, adjust to the long-term toll of having survived infection with SARS-CoV-2. With the surge in cases, overcrowding of hospitals and high lethality, those on the front lines understand that Brazil is at war with COVID-19. The assault has been brutal 1. A quarter of all deaths from COVID-19 in Brazil were officially recorded in April 2021. Meanwhile, a SARS-CoV-2 variant
Science, 2021
Brazil has been severely hit by COVID-19, with rapid spatial spread of both cases and deaths. We ... more Brazil has been severely hit by COVID-19, with rapid spatial spread of both cases and deaths. We use daily data on reported cases and deaths to understand, measure, and compare the spatiotemporal pattern of the spread across municipalities. Indicators of clustering, trajectories, speed, and intensity of the movement of COVID-19 to interior areas, combined with indices of policy measures show that while no single narrative explains the diversity in the spread, an overall failure of implementing prompt, coordinated, and equitable responses in a context of stark local inequalities fueled disease spread. This resulted in high and unequal infection and mortality burdens. With a current surge in cases and deaths and several variants of concern in circulation, failure to mitigate the spread could further aggravate the burden.
Revista de Administração Pública, 2021
In Brazil, sub-national governments have played a particularly important role as the key actors i... more In Brazil, sub-national governments have played a particularly important role as the key actors implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions to halt the spread of COVID-19. Building on the methodology proposed by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), we coded the stringency levels of state-level school, commerce, services, industry, public gathering, and private event closure policies and describe these actions’ duration at the state-level in Brazil from early February to mid-May 2020. Our results suggest significant heterogeneity across Brazil and across weeks in social distancing policy stringency during this period. We then apply dynamic times-series cross-sectional methods to evaluate the effect of anti-contagion policies on the population’s mobility using cell phone location data. We find that anti-contagion policies had a significant effect on producing higher adherence to remaining at home even though social distancing policies were relatively moderate as compared to other countries. Our results also suggest that social distancing policies have a greater impact when a more complete and coherent set of policies were introduced and sustained by state governments.
Brazilian Political Science Review, 2018
In this study, we seek to contribute to discussions on how the quality of academic production in ... more In this study, we seek to contribute to discussions on how the quality of academic production in the field of political science should be evaluated using Brazil as a case study. We contrast the 'expert-driven approach' that is followed by CAPES, an agency of the Brazilian federal government with the 'citational' approach, which is based on the ranking of journals by mainstream indices of scientific research impact. With data provided by CAPES from 2010 to 2014, we examine to what extent journals that are ranked as having high quality by CAPES also have high impact indexes in the SCImago Journal rank index (SJR), the Hirsch index (h-index) calculated by SCImago, the h5-index and h5-median (based on the h-index period 05 years, calculated by Google Scholar Metrics), and the SNIP indicator (calculated by the CWTS Journal Indicators, included in the Scopus database). Our findings show that there is a positive, but weak correlation between citational criteria and the Qualis evaluation of the same journals. In ordered logistic regressions, we show that a journal's past Qualis scores are the most important factor for explaining its grades in the next evaluation. We show that once a journal's past Qualis score is considered, a journal's citational ranking does not influence its Qualis score with the exception of the SJR in the 2013-4 evaluation. Moreover, a journal's Qualis score is not influenced by the country of publication, language, or social science focus, all else equal.
Embora houve um aumento significativo na porcentagem de mulheres que ocupam posições de liderança... more Embora houve um aumento significativo na porcentagem de mulheres que ocupam posições de liderança política, as mulheres ainda são sub-representadas nos parlamentos, principalmente, quando se compara a porcentagem de eleitores do sexo feminino com a porcentagem de mulheres eleitas. Neste estudo, elaboramos uma revisão sobre os principais achados da literatura que busca explicar a baixa presença de mulheres na política. Para refletir sobre a sub-representação feminina na política brasileira, utilizamos tanto da literatura que analisa, especificamente, o caso brasileiro, co-mo também de estudos que tratam de casos-chave e de estudos comparados.
Health policy and planning, 2013
This study contributes to the health governance discussion by presenting a new data set that allo... more This study contributes to the health governance discussion by presenting a new data set that allows for comparisons of the management of health resources among Brazilian municipalities. Research on Brazil is particularly important as the provision of health services was decentralized in 1988 and since then municipalities have been given greater responsibilities for the management of fiscal resources for public health service provision. Based on detailed information on corruption practices (such as over-invoicing, illegal procurement and fake receipts) from audit reports of health programmes in 980 randomly selected Brazilian municipalities, this study deepens understanding of the relationship between health governance institutions and the incidence of corruption at the local level by exploring the extent to which horizontal and vertical accountabilities contribute to reducing the propensity of municipal government officials to divert public health resources for private gain. The results of our multiple regression analysis suggest that the experience of health municipal councils is correlated with reductions in the incidence of corruption in public health programmes. This impact is significant over time, with each additional year of health council experience reducing corruption incidence levels by 2.1% from baseline values. The findings reported in this study do not rely on the subjectivity of corruption measures which usually conflate the actual incidence of corruption with its perception by informants. Based on our results, we provide recommendations that can assist policy makers to reduce corruption.
Geoforum, 2010
Local economic development policies have surged in Brazil over the past decade—a major shift in t... more Local economic development policies have surged in Brazil over the past decade—a major shift in this regionally diverse country of 27 states, over 5000 municipalities, and the largest economy in Latin America. We review the stylized facts, expected patterns and policy recommendations from the foundational studies in regional and urban economics. We then provide a summary of a more recent stream of scholarship focused on local economic development (LED) studies in developed and developing countries that have surged in the last 20 years. Based on this review, we then systemize the findings emerging from studies focused on analyzing local economic development policies in Brazil recognizing the distinctive contributions emerging from both the empirical and the case studies literatures. We identify key lessons for (and from) the Brazilian experience and conclude that Brazil and Latin American countries need a new generation of studies that undertake more rigorous evaluations of these policy experiments. Finally, we recommend steps to advance such research.
ABSTRACT Abstract will be provided by author.
literature on political business cycles has produced important insights on the extent to which po... more literature on political business cycles has produced important insights on the extent to which politicians attempt to manipulate government monetary and fiscal policies to influence electoral outcomes. In particular, some of the strongest evidence produced to date suggests that electoral cycles are particularly marked in the case of government expenditures.
Elections and Globalization on the Welfare State, …, 2008
La economía cubana a principios del siglo XXI, 2007
… , Omar E. y BARBERIA, Lorena. The Cuban …, 2004
ABSTRACT Abstract will be provided by author.
Available at SSRN 1116636, 1997
Since the commencement of hostilities between Cuba and the US in the early 1960s, both government... more Since the commencement of hostilities between Cuba and the US in the early 1960s, both governments have repeatedly attempted to influence private family money transfers across borders. This study undertakes a retrospective assessment of Cuban and US government policy on remittances from 1959 to the present. Tracing policy shifts and targeted outcomes, the paper argues that (1) the aggregate flow of remittances and their uses are highly sensitive to macroeconomic, political, and institutional factors in Cuba, the receiving country, and are less sensitive to the policies imposed by the sending country, the United States; (2) Cuban government policy has been successful in attracting remittances and partially successful in channeling these flows toward the State-controlled economy; and (3) Cuban government policies are encouraging the use of these flows for consumption and less so for savings and direct investment.
David Rockefeller Center for Latin America Studies, 2004
Espacio Laical (Cuba), 2008
ReVista: Harvard Review of Latin America, 2005
PLOS global public health, Aug 17, 2023
A national laboratory-based surveillance system was adapted to monitor the situation of SARS-CoV-... more A national laboratory-based surveillance system was adapted to monitor the situation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil. The objective of the study was to compare the challenges in implementing COVID-19 surveillance strategies based on the Ministry of Health's (MoH) distribution of RT-PCR tests to different types of laboratories. This retrospective study analyzed the MoH's testing policies and distribution of RT-PCR tests to laboratories during the first, second, and third waves. Recipient laboratories were divided into groups: public health laboratories that belonged to the national network of public health laboratories (Group 1); public laboratories granted authorization during the pandemic (Group 2); and High-Capacity Testing Centers (Group 3). We analyzed the timing and duration of COVID-19 testing policies and the allocation of tests to laboratories by group and wave. Using t-tests, we analyzed the difference in the weekly average of tests distributed to labs by group and using Pearson's correlation coefficient, analyzed the test distribution according to infection and death rates. Between epiweek 9, 2020, and epiweek 22, 2022, the MoH distributed an average of 263,004 RT-PCR tests per week. The weekly average of tests distributed was highest in the second wave (310,327 tests), followed by the first (218,005 tests) and third waves (201,226 tests). There was a significant increase in the mean weekly tests distributed in the second wave compared to the first and third waves (p = 0.047; IC 8.29-1110.71). We found a significant difference between the weekly average of tests distributed in the first and second wave (p < 0.001; IC-209.83-76.20) to Group 2. Group 3 received the second-highest number of tests from the MoH overall, with PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH
The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, Apr 1, 2022
The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, 2023
Social Science Research Network, 2021
School closures were one of the policies adopted worldwide for containment of the COVID-19 pandem... more School closures were one of the policies adopted worldwide for containment of the COVID-19 pandemic. While this type of non-pharmaceutical intervention has proven to be an effective policy to reduce virus transmission, there has not been a systematic investigation to verify if governments implemented remote education programs to continue to deliver education to students. In Brazil's case, due to the lack of effective control of the pandemic, schools remained closed for in-person schooling over a prolonged period for the majority of the 2020 academic year. In developing countries, such as Brazil, this can increase education inequalities, especially if access to remote learning technologies is limited for vulnerable populations. In this working paper, we report the results of a novel effort to collect data to document the types of programs adopted by state and state capitals' governments to deliver remote schooling during the pandemic. We measure the duration, scope, and coverage of remote public education programs through quantitative indicators and an index that measures the overall quality of remote education programs in early childhood, primary and secondary education in Brazil in 2020. Our research reveals that there were significant delays in the adoption of these programs by both state and municipal governments. Furthermore, our findings confirm that the programs dedicated insufficient attention to ensuring access to technologies that would encourage learning, interaction and supervision of students remotely. We then show that remote education programs are correlated with previous economic and educational conditions and use survey data collected from households across Brazil to show that remote education programs affected educational outcomes. We conclude by noting that the evidence collected in our report underscores that greater attention must be directed to the challenges and problems encountered in implementing remote education programs. The available evidence suggests that policies must be designed to address the preexisting, now augmented, unequal access and unequal provision of education for vulnerable groups.
medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Apr 28, 2023
This study examined the spatial distribution and social inequalities in COVID-19 vaccine coverage... more This study examined the spatial distribution and social inequalities in COVID-19 vaccine coverage among children aged 5-11 in Brazil. First and second dose vaccine coverage was calculated for all Brazilian municipalities and analyzed by geographic region and deciles based on human development index (HDI-M) and expected years of schooling at 18 years of age. Multilevel models were used to determine the variance partition coefficient, and bivariate local Moran`s I statistic was used to assess spatial association. Results showed significant differences in vaccine coverage rates among Brazilian municipalities, with lower coverage in the North and Midwest regions. Municipalities with lower HDI and expected years of schooling had consistently lower vaccine coverage rates. Bivariate clustering analysis identified extensive concentrations of municipalities in the Northern and Northeastern regions with low vaccine coverage and low human development, while some clusters of municipalities in the Southeast and South regions with low coverage were located in areas with high HDI-M. These findings highlight the persistent municipal-level inequalities in vaccine coverage among children in Brazil and the need for targeted interventions to improve vaccine access and coverage in underserved areas.
Public Health, Jul 1, 2023
Routledge eBooks, Mar 22, 2012
The Lancet Regional Health - Americas
Blatnavik School of Government, 2020
This paper brings together information about Brazil’s federal, state and state-capital Covid-19 r... more This paper brings together information about Brazil’s federal, state and state-capital Covid-19 response policies, mobile-phone mobility data, and original survey data, to assess whether the World Health Organization’s six criteria for evaluating readiness for easing response policies are met. We find that this is broadly not the case. Using OxCGRT for federal, state and some city governments, we report that subnational governments have enacted many of these policies, and that state-government policies have significantly affected behaviour (they impact all three available measures of citizens’ mobility). Although shifts in mobility have waned over time, during the period when policy stringency has been high (from mid-March until the end of May), these shifts have remained significant. Our survey of 1,654 people identified shortcomings in citizens’ understandings of how selfisolating people should behave: 95% of the populations of eight state-capital cities mistakenly believed that self-isolation means that you can leave the house to buy essential items. Correspondingly, recently symptomatic people were more likely than those who were unlikely to be contagious to leave home only once or twice within a fortnight. As reported elsewhere, testing and contact-tracing has been limited in Brazil (even though citizens have good knowledge of how to recognise Covid-19 symptoms), and economically vulnerable groups have seen the largest income reductions. We also find indications that having a high income predicts timely access to testing, and that income support has made up for at least half of the income losses of many of those receiving it. Privately schooled children and teenagers have received higher quality home education than their publicly schooled contemporaries. At the end of the paper we provide summaries reporting policy environments and survey results for eight state capitals – Fortaleza, Goiânia, Manaus, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, and São Paulo
Cuba's process of social development has been at the center of the ongoing debate about the merit... more Cuba's process of social development has been at the center of the ongoing debate about the merits, the failures and the challenges of the Cuban socialist experiment of the last four decades. In writing this piece, that powerful history of documentation and struggle by scholars and policy makers in and out of the island was a presence, and my first appreciation is for their work. For the possibility of exploring this topic I thank, first of all, Oxfam America and its Cuba Program Officer Minor Sinclair. Sinclair, I and our families shared many times in Cuba during "the special period" and, thankfully, his perspective is present in this document. Most special thanks go also to Georgina Chabau, Jesus Ramos, Gina Rey and Rosa Oliveras who provided material and helped arrange interviews in Cuba.
ObjectivesThis study aims to assess the progress of geographic, socioeconomic, and demographic di... more ObjectivesThis study aims to assess the progress of geographic, socioeconomic, and demographic disparities in Covid-19 vaccination coverage in Brazil over the first two years of the vaccination campaign.Study designEcologic study.MethodsData from the National Immunization Program Information System were used to estimate covid-19 vaccine coverage. Brazilian municipalities were divided into two groups based on their vaccine coverage for the booster dose. The first group comprised 20% of municipalities with the lowest coverage, while the second group (80% of municipalities) had higher coverage. The analysis was conducted separately for four age groups: 5-11, 12-17, 18-59, and 60+. Exploratory variables included socioeconomic and health services indicators. Crude and adjusted logistic regression models were used to estimate the probability of a municipality being among those with the worst vaccination coverage according to the categories of exploratory variables.ResultsBetween January/2...
Revista USP, 2021
Desde o início da pandemia de covid-19, houve grande interesse acerca do papel intermediário ex... more Desde o início da pandemia de covid-19, houve grande interesse acerca do papel intermediário exercido pela política e da maneira pela qual ela afeta decisões governamentais e individuais sobre o desenvolvimento e a procura por vacinas, bem como da implementação da vacinação. Um fator adicional que tem contribuído para a politização desses processos tem sido a difusão de informações falsas através das mídias sociais relacionadas ao vírus e às vacinas. Neste artigo, exploramos a forma como as atitudes acerca dos imunizantes desenvolvidos para proteger a população dos sintomas mais graves causados pelo Sars-Cov-2 estão correlacionadas com a ideologia. Utilizamos os dados provenientes da pesquisa “Valores em Crise” para analisar em que medida as atitudes dos eleitores em relação à vacinação afetam a probabilidade individual de vacinação contra o Sars-Cov-2.
Agenda Política, 2014
Este artigo discute objetivos, metodologia e resultados de um programa-piloto lancado para introd... more Este artigo discute objetivos, metodologia e resultados de um programa-piloto lancado para introduzir estudantes de graduacao da Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP) aos metodos quantitativos. Em 2013, o formato tradicional de aulas expositivas foi substituido por um modelo baseado na realizacao de atividades. Discute-se brevemente a pesquisa realizada acerca do ensino de metodos e tecnicas de pesquisa quantitativa em ciencia politica em diferentes paises, bem como as variadas propostas pedagogicas desenvolvidas nesse campo, para contextualizar e analisar o programa-piloto na USP, assim como reportar os resultados preliminares obtidos a partir desses esforcos.
Boletim 9 Rede Solidária de Pesquisa, 2020
Boletim 13 Rede Solidária de Pesquisa , 2020
Informação de qualidade para aperfeiçoar as políticas públicas e salvar vidas Principais conclusõ... more Informação de qualidade para aperfeiçoar as políticas públicas e salvar vidas Principais conclusões • O Brasil é o que menos testa entre os 20 países com maior taxa de óbitos por Covid-19. Além de não realizar o volume de testes necessários, o Brasil tampouco realiza testes suficientes para identificar a proporção de brasileiros que já manteve contato com o vírus. • A lacuna de informação sobre a presença e circulação do vírus entre a população está na base da subnotificação de casos positivos e deixa as decisões de distanciamento físico e de flexibilização mais sensíveis à pressão dos negócios, à política ou à subjetividade. • A média de positividade dos testes no país foi de 36% em junho de 2020, sendo que a recomendação da OMS é de até 5%, patamar não alcançado por nenhum estado brasileiro. • Grande parte dos estados torna público apenas o total de testes, sem classificação por tipo que, como se sabe, têm eficácia distinta na identificação do vírus. Somente 14 estados prestam contas do número de testes RT-PCR, que identifica mais precisamente as pessoas infectadas, e do número de testes que apontam as pessoas que já tiveram contato com o vírus e possuem anticorpos (IgM e IgG). • As secretarias de saúde do Acre, Amapá, Goiás, Rondônia, Rio de Janeiro, Roraima, São Paulo e Tocantins não apresentam nenhuma informação sobre os testes realizados em suas plataformas oficiais; • Somente 09 estados apresentaram uma taxa de positividade inferior a 20% na primeira semana de junho. E até o dia 20 de junho a testagem com resultados positivos era alta em todos os estados.
Bulletin 13, 2020
Brazil has the lowest testing rate among the 20 countries with the highest Covid-19 death rates.