Probal Saha | University of Tennessee Knoxville (original) (raw)

Papers by Probal Saha

Research paper thumbnail of A community-based approach to sustainable transboundary water resources management and governance in the South-West Coastal region of Bangladesh

Sustainable Water Resources Management, 2021

The Southwest coastal region of Bangladesh is located in the Ganges delta's central portion w... more The Southwest coastal region of Bangladesh is located in the Ganges delta's central portion with the Sundarbans, between the inhabited and the Bay of Bengal. Around 405 rivers pass through the country, out of which 57 rivers are shared with other riparian countries and known as transboundary rivers. The upper riparian countries take their geographical advantage and construct obstacles, divert natural river flow or increase water usage from these sources. Another significant issue across all the riparian countries is that the centralized institutions follow a top–down method in the decision-making on transboundary water issues with almost no community participation. As the main rivers Kholpetua, Kalindi, Madar, Kopotakkho are interlinked with neighboring country India, the backwater flow effect of the Ganges river is one of the main reasons behind the low streamflow in the region. Transboundary river impacts, lack of good governance, salinity intrusion, deltaic sedimentation, and water scarcity issues are the primary reasons behind the water stress in Bangladesh's coastal region. These impacts are also further exacerbated by climate change impacts. A key finding from the cross-country visit to India showed the involvement of the local community with the local stakeholders through the initiation of Jal Chaupal, which resulted in significant and effective water interventions for the revival of the Ganges river. The learnings from India indicate that a community-based approach to sustainable transboundary water resources management would be an effective and equitable solution to the water stress issue in Bangladesh as well. In this way, the local communities' actual problems can be identified, and need-based solutions can be implemented. Furthermore, it is also essential to identify the gaps in the national policies to tackle the water stress at downstream regions, which might open an option for cooperation among the riparian countries. This study argues that although relevant policies are in place, there is no proper implementation involving the local community to work out the water issues. Therefore, this study emphasizes good governance and effective policies as critical to a sustainable shift towards integrated water resources management in coastal Bangladesh.

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Research paper thumbnail of Transforming knowledge systems for life on Earth: Visions of future systems and how to get there

Energy Research & Social Science, 2020

Formalised knowledge systems, including universities and research institutes, are important for c... more Formalised knowledge systems, including universities and research institutes, are important for contemporary societies. They are, however, also arguably failing humanity when their impact is measured against the level of progress being made in stimulating the societal changes needed to address challenges like climate change. In this research we used a novel futures-oriented and participatory approach that asked what future envisioned knowledge systems might need to look like and how we might get there. Findings suggest that envisioned future systems will need to be much more collaborative, open, diverse, egalitarian, and able to work with values and systemic issues. They will also need to go beyond producing knowledge about our world to generating wisdom about how to act within it. To get to envisioned systems we will need to rapidly scale methodological innovations, connect innovators, and creatively accelerate learning about working with intractable challenges. We will also need to create new funding schemes, a global knowledge commons, and challenge deeply held assumptions. To genuinely be a creative force in supporting longevity of human and non-human life on our planet, the shift in knowledge systems will probably need to be at the scale of the enlightenment and speed of the scientific and technological revolution accompanying the second World War. This will require bold and strategic action from governments, scientists, civic society and sustained transformational intent.

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Research paper thumbnail of Temporal Analysis of Land use Pattern Changes In Chittagong District of Bangladesh using Google Earth and ArcGIS

Annual International Conference on Chemical Processes, Ecology & Environmental Engineering (ICCPEE’16) April 28-29, 2016 Pattaya (Thailand), Apr 28, 2016

Land use is the arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover type... more Land use is the arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover type to produce, change or maintain it. Land use and land cover changes due to fast growing cities, are becoming major environmental issues for developing countries. The change analysis of various land use pattern within the city is very important for proper management so that decision makers and planners can take an effective measure. Now-a-days, Satellite based earth observation and monitoring has become a very scientific and effective tool to detect and monitor land use changes. In the present work, an attempt has been made to analyze the temporal land use pattern changes of Chittagong district using Google Earth satellite images and ArcGIS. Chittagong district is a very fast growing port city, located in the south-eastern region of Bangladesh. So to know, its land use changing pattern is much diversified and an important issue for the city planners. In this study, Google earth maps for a time period of 2002 to 2014 are collected for every two years and used for developing the land use maps of Chittagong district. Land use map is developed on the basis of four determinants - urban area, forestland, barren land and water body. From analysis, the result shows that with the increasing years from 2002 to 2014, urban area and barren land is increasing day by day while the forestland is decreasing at an alarming rate. The change of water body is decreasing but the process is a bit slow. These land use maps of Chittagong District observed from the low resolution satellite images are very important for primary level quantification of land use pattern and to show the qualitative land use change of Chittagong district with progressive years.

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Research paper thumbnail of A sustainability analysis on the trends and frequency of the channel flow of a carp breeding river against human interventions and governing public–private partnership (PPP) as adaptation

SN Applied Sciences, 2020

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Research paper thumbnail of Projected changes of inundation of cyclonic storms in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta of Bangladesh due to SLR by 2100

Journal of Earth System Science, 2019

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Research paper thumbnail of Temporal Analysis of Land Use Pattern Changes in Chittagong District of Bangladesh using Google Earth and ArcGIS

Annual Int'l Conference on Chemical Processes, Ecology & Environmental Engineering (ICCPEE’16) Pattaya (Thailand), 2016

Land use is the arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover type... more Land use is the arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover type to produce, change or maintain it. Land use and land cover changes due to fast growing cities, are becoming major environmental issues for developing countries. The change analysis of various land use pattern within the city is very important for proper management so that decision makers and planners can take an effective measure. Now-a-days, Satellite based earth observation and monitoring has become a very scientific and effective tool to detect and monitor land use changes. In the present work, an attempt has been made to analyze the temporal land use pattern changes of Chittagong district using Google Earth satellite images and ArcGIS. Chittagong district is a very fast growing port city, located in the south-eastern region of Bangladesh. So to know, its land use changing pattern is much diversified and an important issue for the city planners. In this study, Google earth maps for a...

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Research paper thumbnail of A community-based approach to sustainable transboundary water resources management and governance in the South-West Coastal region of Bangladesh

Sustainable Water Resources Management

The Southwest coastal region of Bangladesh is located in the Ganges delta's central portion w... more The Southwest coastal region of Bangladesh is located in the Ganges delta's central portion with the Sundarbans, between the inhabited and the Bay of Bengal. Around 405 rivers pass through the country, out of which 57 rivers are shared with other riparian countries and known as transboundary rivers. The upper riparian countries take their geographical advantage and construct obstacles, divert natural river flow or increase water usage from these sources. Another significant issue across all the riparian countries is that the centralized institutions follow a top-down method in the decision-making on transboundary water issues with almost no community participation. As the main rivers Kholpetua, Kalindi, Madar, Kopotakkho are interlinked with neighboring country India, the backwater flow effect of the Ganges river is one of the main reasons behind the low streamflow in the region. Transboundary river impacts, lack of good governance, salinity intrusion, deltaic sedimentation, and...

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Research paper thumbnail of A community-based approach to sustainable transboundary water resources management and governance in the South-West Coastal region of Bangladesh

Springer, 2021

The Southwest coastal region of Bangladesh is located in the Ganges delta's central portion with ... more The Southwest coastal region of Bangladesh is located in the Ganges delta's central portion with the Sundarbans, between the inhabited and the Bay of Bengal. Around 405 rivers pass through the country, out of which 57 rivers are shared with other riparian countries and known as transboundary rivers. The upper riparian countries take their geographical advantage and construct obstacles, divert natural river flow or increase water usage from these sources. Another significant issue across all the riparian countries is that the centralized institutions follow a top-down method in the decision-making on transboundary water issues with almost no community participation. As the main rivers Kholpetua, Kalindi, Madar, Kopotakkho are interlinked with neighboring country India, the backwater flow effect of the Ganges river is one of the main reasons behind the low streamflow in the region. Transboundary river impacts, lack of good governance, salinity intrusion, deltaic sedimentation, and water scarcity issues are the primary reasons behind the water stress in Bangladesh's coastal region. These impacts are also further exacerbated by climate change impacts. A key finding from the crosscountry visit to India showed the involvement of the local community with the local stakeholders through the initiation of Jal Chaupal, which resulted in significant and effective water interventions for the revival of the Ganges river. The learnings from India indicate that a community-based approach to sustainable transboundary water resources management would be an effective and equitable solution to the water stress issue in Bangladesh as well. In this way, the local communities' actual problems can be identified, and need-based solutions can be implemented. Furthermore, it is also essential to identify the gaps in the national policies to tackle the water stress at downstream regions, which might open an option for cooperation among the riparian countries. This study argues that although relevant policies are in place, there is no proper implementation involving the local community to work out the water issues. Therefore, this study emphasizes good governance and effective policies as critical to a sustainable shift towards integrated water resources management in coastal Bangladesh.

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Research paper thumbnail of A sustainability study of the flow regulation impacts by dams in a carp breeding river using the hydrodynamic model and building block analysis

SN Applied Sciences

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Research paper thumbnail of A sustainability analysis on the trends and frequency of the channel flow of a carp breeding river against human interventions and governing public-private partnership (PPP) as adaptation

Springer Nature Applied Sciences, 2020

This study presents the trends of channel flow against human interventions and proposes an adapta... more This study presents the trends of channel flow against human interventions and proposes an adaptation plan through a public-private Partnership (PPP) model to overcome the existing deteriorating condition of the Halda River. Being the only natural carp breeding ground in Bangladesh, the Halda River is significant for the national economy. However, the river's destiny is now stricken with infrastructural obstructions, industrial and residual usage exploits, and shortsighted interventions, whereas the impacts of climate change are likely to worsen the scenarios with high salinity intrusion. The unplanned human interventions due to agricultural purposes are continuously obstructing the river flow and demolishing the carp habitats and spawning within the Halda River extremely. Most of the river bends are potential carp breeding grounds along the river stretch, and the low river flow during pre-monsoon is also impacting the sustainability of the aquatic ecosystem. To understand the issues behind the endangering Halda River, this study conducted a sustainability analysis through the river planform, stage trend, and frequency analyses. The planform analysis showed the encroachment of the river impacting the river bends, significant for aquaculture over the last three decades, whereas the stage trends showed the low availability water scenario in these four locations of the river stretch. Besides, the frequency analysis reviewed the threshold minimum flow for the survival of the aquatic habitat, showing that the flow during the pre-monsoon is unsuitable and unacceptable for the survival of the fish habitats using Gumbel distribution. Conservation of the Halda River is a national priority due to its unique ecological and commercial importance, and it is expected that the proposed PPP framework will ensure the long-term sustainability of the river ecosystem. This article is analysing the existing situation of the Halda River and proposing a joint effort from government and private organisation through the PPP model for sustainable ecosystem management as well as the economic benefits of the country. Working together, each of the stakeholders will find direct benefits and can be instrumental for the survival of the Halda River.

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Research paper thumbnail of Assessment of flow regulation impacts by dams in Halda river using hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling

7th International Conference on Water and Flood Management-ICWFM, 2019

Halda, one of the major tributaries of tidal river Karnaphuli, is well known as the country’s mai... more Halda, one of the major tributaries of tidal river Karnaphuli, is well known as the country’s main spawning ground. Naturally fertilized eggs of carps collected from Halda River are hatched in mud-made scoops on the river bank for aquaculture purposes (Khan & Azadi, 2006). The river habitat is under constant threat due to human interventions like loop cutting, pollution from paper mill and power plant, blocking natural water flow of larger tributaries by introducing sluice gates, embankments and rubber dam over the river at upstream, as well natural causes like siltation, erosion and climate change impacts (Azadi & Alam, 2013).To address these issues of the ecosystem and sustainable management, a study was conducted to understand the flow regulation impacts of dams in the Halda river. A hydrological and hydrodynamic model was simulated for the demand without dam scenarios to analyze the flow regulation impacts for fish habitat and spawning in the river area.

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Research paper thumbnail of A sustainability study of the flow regulation impacts by dams in a carp breeding river using the hydrodynamic model and building block analysis

Spring Nature Applied Sciences, Oct 17, 2019

Halda, one of the major tributaries of the mountainous river Karnaphuli, is well known as the cou... more Halda, one of the major tributaries of the mountainous river Karnaphuli, is well known as the country's only natural carp spawning ground. Naturally fertilized eggs of carps collected from Halda River are hatched in mud-made scoops on the river bank for aquaculture purposes. However, the river habitat is under constant threat due to human interventions like loop cutting, pollution from the paper mill and power plant, blocking natural water flow of larger tributaries by introducing sluice gates, embankments and rubber dam over the river at upstream, as well natural causes like siltation, erosion and climate change impacts. A study is conducted to address the issues of the ecosystem, sustainable management and the flow regulation impacts of dams in the Halda River, although the flow regulation assessments are conducted based on the macroinvertebrate, index-based framework, land-use effects on the hydrology, new indicators development, hydrologic impact assessment, hydrodynamics in dam regulated rivers, surface-water hydrodynamics and regimes of a small mountain stream and wide range of initiatives. In our case, we considered runoff flow, mountainous flow and dams in the rivers are primary parameters for assessment, so based on previous studies we decided to simulate a hydrologic and hydrodynamic model for the dam and without dam scenarios. Major difficulties and challenges for the environmental flow analysis of a river are continuous data availability. In this research, a hydrologic model ArcSWAT has been built to assess the contribution of rainfall on the river discharge to be used as output from the tributaries in the hydrodynamic model Delft3D. The research findings help us to perceive the effect of the dams on fish breeding condition in the river. In order to perform the environment flow analysis of the river, Tennant method has been followed in the study, which is a secure and reliable approach. The flow regulation impacts are assessed for fish habitat and spawning in the river area based on the simulations. Finally, the findings are further analyzed for velocity profiles for dams by building block method for the sustainable aquatic habitat in the Halda River.

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Research paper thumbnail of Projected changes of inundation of cyclonic storms in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta of Bangladesh due to SLR by 2100

Journal of Earth System Science- Springer, 2019

Almost every year, Bangladesh experiences disasters such as tropical cyclones, storm surges, coas... more Almost every year, Bangladesh experiences disasters such as tropical cyclones, storm surges, coastal erosion or floods. Tropical cyclones originate from the North Indian Ocean and often cause devastating flood inundations in Bangladesh. Storm surges of the Bay of Bengal (BOB) are larger compared to other regions of the world for similar cyclones due to amplification by the shallow water depth, huge continental shelf and convergent coastlines. This scenario of inundation for such storm surges in the future when the sea level rise (SLR) occurs due to global warming will be different from the present. The densely populated coastal region of Bangladesh is likely to become more vulnerable in the future due to SLR. Disaster risks can be reduced if storm surges can be predicted well ahead. To assess the possible changes of inundation in the future, a widely used coastal model, Delft3D, has been applied for this BOB region. The model has been validated for the storm surge of three recent devastating cyclones, namely, Sidr, Aila and Roanu in the southern coast of Bangladesh. The validated model has been run to produce inundation maps and statistics for cyclonic storm surges such as Sidr, Aila and Roanu and probable SLR. Three possible SLR boundary conditions are chosen from the business-as-usual climate scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5 with values of 0.5 m (lower limit), 1 m (upper limit) and 1.5 m (extreme case, considering the subsidence and a rapid collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet). It is found that a category 4 cyclone such as cyclone Sidr would inundate 2.6%, 3.67% and 5.84% of the area of the country if the SLR is 0.5, 1 and 1.5 m, which will affect the livelihood of nearly 4.1, 7.0 and 9.1 million people of Bangladesh, respectively. It will also inundate up to 21.0%, 42.1% and 65.1% of the Sundarbans mangrove forest, which will undoubtedly affect the ecology of this unique ecosystem.

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Research paper thumbnail of Changes of inundation patterns of the tropical cyclone 'Roanu' using online coupled delft3d and swan model under different sea level rise conditions

6th International Conference on Water & Flood Management, 2017

Bangladesh, one of the most disaster-prone country in south Asian region experiences tropical cyc... more Bangladesh, one of the most disaster-prone country in south Asian region experiences tropical cyclones, storm surges, coastal erosions and floods almost every year. Very recently, tropical cyclone ‚Roanu' has caused extreme devastation across the country. Roanu originating from a low pressure area at south of Sri Lanka, gradually drifted towards north and intensified into a cyclonic storm on 19 May 2016. Although, wind shear and land interaction has weaken severity of the cyclone, it casused severe flooding in Bangladesh and Srilanka. Cyclone Roanu turning very deadly for the city of Chittagong, caused severe wind damages, destroyed coastal embankments and triggered heavy rain landslides. Such damages has become great concern to learn flood inundation patterns for such storm surges when sea level will rise due to global warming. To investigate the changes, a hydro-morphological model, Delft3D has been applied and validated for storm surges in the southern coast of Bangladesh. For storm surge simulation, the tropical cyclone toolbox of Delft Dashboard is used on the platform of Delft3D flow module. Model has been calibrated using tidal gague data from BIWTA and simulated to produce inundation maps for Cyclone Roanu under the persent and future conditions considering different sea level rise scenarios.

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Research paper thumbnail of Recommending Areas for Advocacy to Improve the Lives and Livelihood Issues of Haor Dwellers

3rd International Conference on Sustainable Development 2019, 2019

The Haor region of Bangladesh is considered to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts for... more The Haor region of Bangladesh is considered to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts for its unique physical setting and hydrology. Changing weather patterns including temperature rise, reduced and erratic rainfall are identified as negative causes on agricultural production regarding annual rice harvest, winter crops, and fisheries. The Haor region contributes almost 16.5 percent of the total rice production of Bangladesh and 6-8 percent of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on an average. Any slowdown in the economy of the Haor region will undoubtedly affect our national growth. The major problems in the Haor area are the water and agriculture-related problems. The area also faces water-related problems such as flash flood, river bank erosion, drainage congestion, poor navigability, sedimentation. Moreover, agriculture-based problems such as monoculture cropping system, single robi season crop and extreme crop losses due to floods are another concern. The region also experiences widespread problems of flood insecurity due to a combination of factors such as- crop losses because of flash floods and erosion, poor access to markets, especially during the flood season due to lack of communication. Pre-monsoon flash floods are among the significant disasters which engulf the primary production sector and thus challenges the lives and livelihoods of the haor inhabitants. The haor region is generally considered to have lagged behind the overall progress of national development in Bangladesh regarding various key indicators of social and economic development. Humanitarian Coordination Task Team (HCTT) triggered a Coordinated Needs Assessment (CNA) in May 2017 after the March flash flood that identified the worst affected 15 Upazila with 57,837 Households. To understand the needs, opportunities, and livelihoods of the local community of the North-east Haor region, a study was conducted to address the advocacy issues and identify the possible way forward. The short study was carried out based on reviewing previous studies and a short field visit from 26 February to 1 March 2018. The study was limited to three Upazilas in the Haor areas- Tahirpur and Derai under Sunamganj district and Itna under Kishoreganj district. The study showed that the affected people are in need of agriculture and livelihood inputs for livestock and other agro-supplies. They are also searching for alternative livelihood options as there is nothing to do at that moment thus increased internal displacement and migration to cities. Based on the primary and secondary information, the study has pointed out some significant problems in Haor areas and recommended a number of issues for advocacy to address these problems and to fulfill the needs of the haor region inhabitants.

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Research paper thumbnail of River Assessment and Water Management Strategy for South-West coastal Region of Bangladesh

International Journal of Management and Applied Science, 2018

The upstream-downstream water sharing between transboundary riversis challenging and growing conf... more The upstream-downstream water sharing between transboundary riversis challenging and growing conflicts among neighboring countries. The Ganges, one of the largest river systems in the world, rises south of the main Himalayan and divides near Gangotri (elevation 4500 m) in Uttar Pradesh, India. The river divides into two channels below Farakka. The left main river enters Bangladesh and joins the Brahmaputra River at Goalundo. Shyamnagar, Satkhira is located at the southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh and most of the rivers in this region receive flow mainly from the Ganges river system. After the construction of Farakka Dam, distributary rivers of the Ganges inside Bangladesh are slowly facing death for not receiving their winter flow. As a result freshwater source is decreasing and the salinity situation has been aggravated in the southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh. The major portion of the floodplain is low-lying, barely one meter above mean sea level and below high tide level. Moreover, people's interest in shrimp culture has aggravated salinity in the region along with the climate change impacts. So, it is necessary to prepare a distinct and realistic water management plan for the southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh. To understand the changes in the region, major rivers are assessed by trend analysis and Satellite map overlays. In cooperation with the local community and based on the river assessment findings, major five problems have been ranked and a 5year phase water management strategy has been proposed for the southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh.

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Research paper thumbnail of Temporal Analysis of Land Use Pattern Changes in Chittagong District of Bangladesh using Google Earth and ArcGIS.

Annual Int'l Conference on Chemical Processes, Ecology & Environmental Engineering (ICCPEE’16) Pattaya (Thailand), 2016

Land use is the arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover typ... more Land use is the arrangements, activities and inputs
people undertake in a certain land cover type to produce, change or
maintain it. Land use and land cover changes due to fast growing
cities, are becoming major environmental issues for developing
countries. The change analysis of various land use pattern within the
city is very important for proper management so that decision makers
and planners can take an effective measure. Now-a-days, Satellite
based earth observation and monitoring has become a very scientific
and effective tool to detect and monitor land use changes. In the
present work, an attempt has been made to analyze the temporal land
use pattern changes of Chittagong district using Google Earth satellite
images and ArcGIS. Chittagong district is a very fast growing port city,
located in the south-eastern region of Bangladesh. So to know, its land
use changing pattern is much diversified and an important issue for the
city planners. In this study, Google earth maps for a time period of
2002 to 2014 are collected for every two years and used for developing
the land use maps of Chittagong district. Land use map is developed
on the basis of four determinants - urban area, forestland, barren land
and water body. From analysis, the result shows that with the
increasing years from 2002 to 2014, urban area and barren land is
increasing day by day while the forestland is decreasing at an alarming
rate. The change of water body is decreasing but the process is a bit
slow. These land use maps of Chittagong District observed from the
low resolution satellite images are very important for primary level
quantification of land use pattern and to show the qualitative land use
change of Chittagong district with progressive years.

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Research paper thumbnail of Hydrodynamic and Short term Flash Flood analysis of Surma River using Delft3D Model.

Surma is a mountainous river, originating at Manipur hills of India enters Bangladesh through Syl... more Surma is a mountainous river, originating at Manipur hills of India enters Bangladesh through Sylhet district. Due to its location near the foothills of Himalaya, this region has a large rate of precipitation. As a result, the river causes frequent flash flood during early monsoon causing a significant change in peak flow. Being sudden and violent in nature, flash flood causes massive destruction in the agricultural productions, transports, navigations and valuable properties. This concerns for a better understanding of Surma River and its flash Flood. The selected reach is almost 85km and spans from Surma Transit at u/s to Sunamganj at d/s. Different hydrodynamic characteristics such as variation in water level, velocity, discharge and flash flood analysis due to peak flow change at the Chhatak transit for the year 2000 are assessed. The result output shows, maximum water level and discharge of Surma River is obtained during the monsoon. The velocity is also high during this period. During the winter, discharge and velocity are almost zero. Flash Flood analysis of Surma River shows rapid change in water level and flow during the month of April, 2000 with respect to flood level. Due to its development on a short time, the changes in water level and discharge will show its devastating impact. Overall, Hydrodynamic analysis will help to understand the characteristics and features of Surma River and Flash Flood analysis will shows its development and occurrence period in Surma River along with impacts.

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Research paper thumbnail of A community-based approach to sustainable transboundary water resources management and governance in the South-West Coastal region of Bangladesh

Sustainable Water Resources Management, 2021

The Southwest coastal region of Bangladesh is located in the Ganges delta's central portion w... more The Southwest coastal region of Bangladesh is located in the Ganges delta's central portion with the Sundarbans, between the inhabited and the Bay of Bengal. Around 405 rivers pass through the country, out of which 57 rivers are shared with other riparian countries and known as transboundary rivers. The upper riparian countries take their geographical advantage and construct obstacles, divert natural river flow or increase water usage from these sources. Another significant issue across all the riparian countries is that the centralized institutions follow a top–down method in the decision-making on transboundary water issues with almost no community participation. As the main rivers Kholpetua, Kalindi, Madar, Kopotakkho are interlinked with neighboring country India, the backwater flow effect of the Ganges river is one of the main reasons behind the low streamflow in the region. Transboundary river impacts, lack of good governance, salinity intrusion, deltaic sedimentation, and water scarcity issues are the primary reasons behind the water stress in Bangladesh's coastal region. These impacts are also further exacerbated by climate change impacts. A key finding from the cross-country visit to India showed the involvement of the local community with the local stakeholders through the initiation of Jal Chaupal, which resulted in significant and effective water interventions for the revival of the Ganges river. The learnings from India indicate that a community-based approach to sustainable transboundary water resources management would be an effective and equitable solution to the water stress issue in Bangladesh as well. In this way, the local communities' actual problems can be identified, and need-based solutions can be implemented. Furthermore, it is also essential to identify the gaps in the national policies to tackle the water stress at downstream regions, which might open an option for cooperation among the riparian countries. This study argues that although relevant policies are in place, there is no proper implementation involving the local community to work out the water issues. Therefore, this study emphasizes good governance and effective policies as critical to a sustainable shift towards integrated water resources management in coastal Bangladesh.

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Research paper thumbnail of Transforming knowledge systems for life on Earth: Visions of future systems and how to get there

Energy Research & Social Science, 2020

Formalised knowledge systems, including universities and research institutes, are important for c... more Formalised knowledge systems, including universities and research institutes, are important for contemporary societies. They are, however, also arguably failing humanity when their impact is measured against the level of progress being made in stimulating the societal changes needed to address challenges like climate change. In this research we used a novel futures-oriented and participatory approach that asked what future envisioned knowledge systems might need to look like and how we might get there. Findings suggest that envisioned future systems will need to be much more collaborative, open, diverse, egalitarian, and able to work with values and systemic issues. They will also need to go beyond producing knowledge about our world to generating wisdom about how to act within it. To get to envisioned systems we will need to rapidly scale methodological innovations, connect innovators, and creatively accelerate learning about working with intractable challenges. We will also need to create new funding schemes, a global knowledge commons, and challenge deeply held assumptions. To genuinely be a creative force in supporting longevity of human and non-human life on our planet, the shift in knowledge systems will probably need to be at the scale of the enlightenment and speed of the scientific and technological revolution accompanying the second World War. This will require bold and strategic action from governments, scientists, civic society and sustained transformational intent.

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Research paper thumbnail of Temporal Analysis of Land use Pattern Changes In Chittagong District of Bangladesh using Google Earth and ArcGIS

Annual International Conference on Chemical Processes, Ecology & Environmental Engineering (ICCPEE’16) April 28-29, 2016 Pattaya (Thailand), Apr 28, 2016

Land use is the arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover type... more Land use is the arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover type to produce, change or maintain it. Land use and land cover changes due to fast growing cities, are becoming major environmental issues for developing countries. The change analysis of various land use pattern within the city is very important for proper management so that decision makers and planners can take an effective measure. Now-a-days, Satellite based earth observation and monitoring has become a very scientific and effective tool to detect and monitor land use changes. In the present work, an attempt has been made to analyze the temporal land use pattern changes of Chittagong district using Google Earth satellite images and ArcGIS. Chittagong district is a very fast growing port city, located in the south-eastern region of Bangladesh. So to know, its land use changing pattern is much diversified and an important issue for the city planners. In this study, Google earth maps for a time period of 2002 to 2014 are collected for every two years and used for developing the land use maps of Chittagong district. Land use map is developed on the basis of four determinants - urban area, forestland, barren land and water body. From analysis, the result shows that with the increasing years from 2002 to 2014, urban area and barren land is increasing day by day while the forestland is decreasing at an alarming rate. The change of water body is decreasing but the process is a bit slow. These land use maps of Chittagong District observed from the low resolution satellite images are very important for primary level quantification of land use pattern and to show the qualitative land use change of Chittagong district with progressive years.

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Research paper thumbnail of A sustainability analysis on the trends and frequency of the channel flow of a carp breeding river against human interventions and governing public–private partnership (PPP) as adaptation

SN Applied Sciences, 2020

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Research paper thumbnail of Projected changes of inundation of cyclonic storms in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta of Bangladesh due to SLR by 2100

Journal of Earth System Science, 2019

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Research paper thumbnail of Temporal Analysis of Land Use Pattern Changes in Chittagong District of Bangladesh using Google Earth and ArcGIS

Annual Int'l Conference on Chemical Processes, Ecology & Environmental Engineering (ICCPEE’16) Pattaya (Thailand), 2016

Land use is the arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover type... more Land use is the arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover type to produce, change or maintain it. Land use and land cover changes due to fast growing cities, are becoming major environmental issues for developing countries. The change analysis of various land use pattern within the city is very important for proper management so that decision makers and planners can take an effective measure. Now-a-days, Satellite based earth observation and monitoring has become a very scientific and effective tool to detect and monitor land use changes. In the present work, an attempt has been made to analyze the temporal land use pattern changes of Chittagong district using Google Earth satellite images and ArcGIS. Chittagong district is a very fast growing port city, located in the south-eastern region of Bangladesh. So to know, its land use changing pattern is much diversified and an important issue for the city planners. In this study, Google earth maps for a...

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Research paper thumbnail of A community-based approach to sustainable transboundary water resources management and governance in the South-West Coastal region of Bangladesh

Sustainable Water Resources Management

The Southwest coastal region of Bangladesh is located in the Ganges delta's central portion w... more The Southwest coastal region of Bangladesh is located in the Ganges delta's central portion with the Sundarbans, between the inhabited and the Bay of Bengal. Around 405 rivers pass through the country, out of which 57 rivers are shared with other riparian countries and known as transboundary rivers. The upper riparian countries take their geographical advantage and construct obstacles, divert natural river flow or increase water usage from these sources. Another significant issue across all the riparian countries is that the centralized institutions follow a top-down method in the decision-making on transboundary water issues with almost no community participation. As the main rivers Kholpetua, Kalindi, Madar, Kopotakkho are interlinked with neighboring country India, the backwater flow effect of the Ganges river is one of the main reasons behind the low streamflow in the region. Transboundary river impacts, lack of good governance, salinity intrusion, deltaic sedimentation, and...

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Research paper thumbnail of A community-based approach to sustainable transboundary water resources management and governance in the South-West Coastal region of Bangladesh

Springer, 2021

The Southwest coastal region of Bangladesh is located in the Ganges delta's central portion with ... more The Southwest coastal region of Bangladesh is located in the Ganges delta's central portion with the Sundarbans, between the inhabited and the Bay of Bengal. Around 405 rivers pass through the country, out of which 57 rivers are shared with other riparian countries and known as transboundary rivers. The upper riparian countries take their geographical advantage and construct obstacles, divert natural river flow or increase water usage from these sources. Another significant issue across all the riparian countries is that the centralized institutions follow a top-down method in the decision-making on transboundary water issues with almost no community participation. As the main rivers Kholpetua, Kalindi, Madar, Kopotakkho are interlinked with neighboring country India, the backwater flow effect of the Ganges river is one of the main reasons behind the low streamflow in the region. Transboundary river impacts, lack of good governance, salinity intrusion, deltaic sedimentation, and water scarcity issues are the primary reasons behind the water stress in Bangladesh's coastal region. These impacts are also further exacerbated by climate change impacts. A key finding from the crosscountry visit to India showed the involvement of the local community with the local stakeholders through the initiation of Jal Chaupal, which resulted in significant and effective water interventions for the revival of the Ganges river. The learnings from India indicate that a community-based approach to sustainable transboundary water resources management would be an effective and equitable solution to the water stress issue in Bangladesh as well. In this way, the local communities' actual problems can be identified, and need-based solutions can be implemented. Furthermore, it is also essential to identify the gaps in the national policies to tackle the water stress at downstream regions, which might open an option for cooperation among the riparian countries. This study argues that although relevant policies are in place, there is no proper implementation involving the local community to work out the water issues. Therefore, this study emphasizes good governance and effective policies as critical to a sustainable shift towards integrated water resources management in coastal Bangladesh.

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Research paper thumbnail of A sustainability study of the flow regulation impacts by dams in a carp breeding river using the hydrodynamic model and building block analysis

SN Applied Sciences

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Research paper thumbnail of A sustainability analysis on the trends and frequency of the channel flow of a carp breeding river against human interventions and governing public-private partnership (PPP) as adaptation

Springer Nature Applied Sciences, 2020

This study presents the trends of channel flow against human interventions and proposes an adapta... more This study presents the trends of channel flow against human interventions and proposes an adaptation plan through a public-private Partnership (PPP) model to overcome the existing deteriorating condition of the Halda River. Being the only natural carp breeding ground in Bangladesh, the Halda River is significant for the national economy. However, the river's destiny is now stricken with infrastructural obstructions, industrial and residual usage exploits, and shortsighted interventions, whereas the impacts of climate change are likely to worsen the scenarios with high salinity intrusion. The unplanned human interventions due to agricultural purposes are continuously obstructing the river flow and demolishing the carp habitats and spawning within the Halda River extremely. Most of the river bends are potential carp breeding grounds along the river stretch, and the low river flow during pre-monsoon is also impacting the sustainability of the aquatic ecosystem. To understand the issues behind the endangering Halda River, this study conducted a sustainability analysis through the river planform, stage trend, and frequency analyses. The planform analysis showed the encroachment of the river impacting the river bends, significant for aquaculture over the last three decades, whereas the stage trends showed the low availability water scenario in these four locations of the river stretch. Besides, the frequency analysis reviewed the threshold minimum flow for the survival of the aquatic habitat, showing that the flow during the pre-monsoon is unsuitable and unacceptable for the survival of the fish habitats using Gumbel distribution. Conservation of the Halda River is a national priority due to its unique ecological and commercial importance, and it is expected that the proposed PPP framework will ensure the long-term sustainability of the river ecosystem. This article is analysing the existing situation of the Halda River and proposing a joint effort from government and private organisation through the PPP model for sustainable ecosystem management as well as the economic benefits of the country. Working together, each of the stakeholders will find direct benefits and can be instrumental for the survival of the Halda River.

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Research paper thumbnail of Assessment of flow regulation impacts by dams in Halda river using hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling

7th International Conference on Water and Flood Management-ICWFM, 2019

Halda, one of the major tributaries of tidal river Karnaphuli, is well known as the country’s mai... more Halda, one of the major tributaries of tidal river Karnaphuli, is well known as the country’s main spawning ground. Naturally fertilized eggs of carps collected from Halda River are hatched in mud-made scoops on the river bank for aquaculture purposes (Khan & Azadi, 2006). The river habitat is under constant threat due to human interventions like loop cutting, pollution from paper mill and power plant, blocking natural water flow of larger tributaries by introducing sluice gates, embankments and rubber dam over the river at upstream, as well natural causes like siltation, erosion and climate change impacts (Azadi & Alam, 2013).To address these issues of the ecosystem and sustainable management, a study was conducted to understand the flow regulation impacts of dams in the Halda river. A hydrological and hydrodynamic model was simulated for the demand without dam scenarios to analyze the flow regulation impacts for fish habitat and spawning in the river area.

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Research paper thumbnail of A sustainability study of the flow regulation impacts by dams in a carp breeding river using the hydrodynamic model and building block analysis

Spring Nature Applied Sciences, Oct 17, 2019

Halda, one of the major tributaries of the mountainous river Karnaphuli, is well known as the cou... more Halda, one of the major tributaries of the mountainous river Karnaphuli, is well known as the country's only natural carp spawning ground. Naturally fertilized eggs of carps collected from Halda River are hatched in mud-made scoops on the river bank for aquaculture purposes. However, the river habitat is under constant threat due to human interventions like loop cutting, pollution from the paper mill and power plant, blocking natural water flow of larger tributaries by introducing sluice gates, embankments and rubber dam over the river at upstream, as well natural causes like siltation, erosion and climate change impacts. A study is conducted to address the issues of the ecosystem, sustainable management and the flow regulation impacts of dams in the Halda River, although the flow regulation assessments are conducted based on the macroinvertebrate, index-based framework, land-use effects on the hydrology, new indicators development, hydrologic impact assessment, hydrodynamics in dam regulated rivers, surface-water hydrodynamics and regimes of a small mountain stream and wide range of initiatives. In our case, we considered runoff flow, mountainous flow and dams in the rivers are primary parameters for assessment, so based on previous studies we decided to simulate a hydrologic and hydrodynamic model for the dam and without dam scenarios. Major difficulties and challenges for the environmental flow analysis of a river are continuous data availability. In this research, a hydrologic model ArcSWAT has been built to assess the contribution of rainfall on the river discharge to be used as output from the tributaries in the hydrodynamic model Delft3D. The research findings help us to perceive the effect of the dams on fish breeding condition in the river. In order to perform the environment flow analysis of the river, Tennant method has been followed in the study, which is a secure and reliable approach. The flow regulation impacts are assessed for fish habitat and spawning in the river area based on the simulations. Finally, the findings are further analyzed for velocity profiles for dams by building block method for the sustainable aquatic habitat in the Halda River.

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Research paper thumbnail of Projected changes of inundation of cyclonic storms in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta of Bangladesh due to SLR by 2100

Journal of Earth System Science- Springer, 2019

Almost every year, Bangladesh experiences disasters such as tropical cyclones, storm surges, coas... more Almost every year, Bangladesh experiences disasters such as tropical cyclones, storm surges, coastal erosion or floods. Tropical cyclones originate from the North Indian Ocean and often cause devastating flood inundations in Bangladesh. Storm surges of the Bay of Bengal (BOB) are larger compared to other regions of the world for similar cyclones due to amplification by the shallow water depth, huge continental shelf and convergent coastlines. This scenario of inundation for such storm surges in the future when the sea level rise (SLR) occurs due to global warming will be different from the present. The densely populated coastal region of Bangladesh is likely to become more vulnerable in the future due to SLR. Disaster risks can be reduced if storm surges can be predicted well ahead. To assess the possible changes of inundation in the future, a widely used coastal model, Delft3D, has been applied for this BOB region. The model has been validated for the storm surge of three recent devastating cyclones, namely, Sidr, Aila and Roanu in the southern coast of Bangladesh. The validated model has been run to produce inundation maps and statistics for cyclonic storm surges such as Sidr, Aila and Roanu and probable SLR. Three possible SLR boundary conditions are chosen from the business-as-usual climate scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5 with values of 0.5 m (lower limit), 1 m (upper limit) and 1.5 m (extreme case, considering the subsidence and a rapid collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet). It is found that a category 4 cyclone such as cyclone Sidr would inundate 2.6%, 3.67% and 5.84% of the area of the country if the SLR is 0.5, 1 and 1.5 m, which will affect the livelihood of nearly 4.1, 7.0 and 9.1 million people of Bangladesh, respectively. It will also inundate up to 21.0%, 42.1% and 65.1% of the Sundarbans mangrove forest, which will undoubtedly affect the ecology of this unique ecosystem.

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Research paper thumbnail of Changes of inundation patterns of the tropical cyclone 'Roanu' using online coupled delft3d and swan model under different sea level rise conditions

6th International Conference on Water & Flood Management, 2017

Bangladesh, one of the most disaster-prone country in south Asian region experiences tropical cyc... more Bangladesh, one of the most disaster-prone country in south Asian region experiences tropical cyclones, storm surges, coastal erosions and floods almost every year. Very recently, tropical cyclone ‚Roanu' has caused extreme devastation across the country. Roanu originating from a low pressure area at south of Sri Lanka, gradually drifted towards north and intensified into a cyclonic storm on 19 May 2016. Although, wind shear and land interaction has weaken severity of the cyclone, it casused severe flooding in Bangladesh and Srilanka. Cyclone Roanu turning very deadly for the city of Chittagong, caused severe wind damages, destroyed coastal embankments and triggered heavy rain landslides. Such damages has become great concern to learn flood inundation patterns for such storm surges when sea level will rise due to global warming. To investigate the changes, a hydro-morphological model, Delft3D has been applied and validated for storm surges in the southern coast of Bangladesh. For storm surge simulation, the tropical cyclone toolbox of Delft Dashboard is used on the platform of Delft3D flow module. Model has been calibrated using tidal gague data from BIWTA and simulated to produce inundation maps for Cyclone Roanu under the persent and future conditions considering different sea level rise scenarios.

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Research paper thumbnail of Recommending Areas for Advocacy to Improve the Lives and Livelihood Issues of Haor Dwellers

3rd International Conference on Sustainable Development 2019, 2019

The Haor region of Bangladesh is considered to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts for... more The Haor region of Bangladesh is considered to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts for its unique physical setting and hydrology. Changing weather patterns including temperature rise, reduced and erratic rainfall are identified as negative causes on agricultural production regarding annual rice harvest, winter crops, and fisheries. The Haor region contributes almost 16.5 percent of the total rice production of Bangladesh and 6-8 percent of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on an average. Any slowdown in the economy of the Haor region will undoubtedly affect our national growth. The major problems in the Haor area are the water and agriculture-related problems. The area also faces water-related problems such as flash flood, river bank erosion, drainage congestion, poor navigability, sedimentation. Moreover, agriculture-based problems such as monoculture cropping system, single robi season crop and extreme crop losses due to floods are another concern. The region also experiences widespread problems of flood insecurity due to a combination of factors such as- crop losses because of flash floods and erosion, poor access to markets, especially during the flood season due to lack of communication. Pre-monsoon flash floods are among the significant disasters which engulf the primary production sector and thus challenges the lives and livelihoods of the haor inhabitants. The haor region is generally considered to have lagged behind the overall progress of national development in Bangladesh regarding various key indicators of social and economic development. Humanitarian Coordination Task Team (HCTT) triggered a Coordinated Needs Assessment (CNA) in May 2017 after the March flash flood that identified the worst affected 15 Upazila with 57,837 Households. To understand the needs, opportunities, and livelihoods of the local community of the North-east Haor region, a study was conducted to address the advocacy issues and identify the possible way forward. The short study was carried out based on reviewing previous studies and a short field visit from 26 February to 1 March 2018. The study was limited to three Upazilas in the Haor areas- Tahirpur and Derai under Sunamganj district and Itna under Kishoreganj district. The study showed that the affected people are in need of agriculture and livelihood inputs for livestock and other agro-supplies. They are also searching for alternative livelihood options as there is nothing to do at that moment thus increased internal displacement and migration to cities. Based on the primary and secondary information, the study has pointed out some significant problems in Haor areas and recommended a number of issues for advocacy to address these problems and to fulfill the needs of the haor region inhabitants.

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Research paper thumbnail of River Assessment and Water Management Strategy for South-West coastal Region of Bangladesh

International Journal of Management and Applied Science, 2018

The upstream-downstream water sharing between transboundary riversis challenging and growing conf... more The upstream-downstream water sharing between transboundary riversis challenging and growing conflicts among neighboring countries. The Ganges, one of the largest river systems in the world, rises south of the main Himalayan and divides near Gangotri (elevation 4500 m) in Uttar Pradesh, India. The river divides into two channels below Farakka. The left main river enters Bangladesh and joins the Brahmaputra River at Goalundo. Shyamnagar, Satkhira is located at the southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh and most of the rivers in this region receive flow mainly from the Ganges river system. After the construction of Farakka Dam, distributary rivers of the Ganges inside Bangladesh are slowly facing death for not receiving their winter flow. As a result freshwater source is decreasing and the salinity situation has been aggravated in the southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh. The major portion of the floodplain is low-lying, barely one meter above mean sea level and below high tide level. Moreover, people's interest in shrimp culture has aggravated salinity in the region along with the climate change impacts. So, it is necessary to prepare a distinct and realistic water management plan for the southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh. To understand the changes in the region, major rivers are assessed by trend analysis and Satellite map overlays. In cooperation with the local community and based on the river assessment findings, major five problems have been ranked and a 5year phase water management strategy has been proposed for the southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh.

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Research paper thumbnail of Temporal Analysis of Land Use Pattern Changes in Chittagong District of Bangladesh using Google Earth and ArcGIS.

Annual Int'l Conference on Chemical Processes, Ecology & Environmental Engineering (ICCPEE’16) Pattaya (Thailand), 2016

Land use is the arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover typ... more Land use is the arrangements, activities and inputs
people undertake in a certain land cover type to produce, change or
maintain it. Land use and land cover changes due to fast growing
cities, are becoming major environmental issues for developing
countries. The change analysis of various land use pattern within the
city is very important for proper management so that decision makers
and planners can take an effective measure. Now-a-days, Satellite
based earth observation and monitoring has become a very scientific
and effective tool to detect and monitor land use changes. In the
present work, an attempt has been made to analyze the temporal land
use pattern changes of Chittagong district using Google Earth satellite
images and ArcGIS. Chittagong district is a very fast growing port city,
located in the south-eastern region of Bangladesh. So to know, its land
use changing pattern is much diversified and an important issue for the
city planners. In this study, Google earth maps for a time period of
2002 to 2014 are collected for every two years and used for developing
the land use maps of Chittagong district. Land use map is developed
on the basis of four determinants - urban area, forestland, barren land
and water body. From analysis, the result shows that with the
increasing years from 2002 to 2014, urban area and barren land is
increasing day by day while the forestland is decreasing at an alarming
rate. The change of water body is decreasing but the process is a bit
slow. These land use maps of Chittagong District observed from the
low resolution satellite images are very important for primary level
quantification of land use pattern and to show the qualitative land use
change of Chittagong district with progressive years.

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Research paper thumbnail of Hydrodynamic and Short term Flash Flood analysis of Surma River using Delft3D Model.

Surma is a mountainous river, originating at Manipur hills of India enters Bangladesh through Syl... more Surma is a mountainous river, originating at Manipur hills of India enters Bangladesh through Sylhet district. Due to its location near the foothills of Himalaya, this region has a large rate of precipitation. As a result, the river causes frequent flash flood during early monsoon causing a significant change in peak flow. Being sudden and violent in nature, flash flood causes massive destruction in the agricultural productions, transports, navigations and valuable properties. This concerns for a better understanding of Surma River and its flash Flood. The selected reach is almost 85km and spans from Surma Transit at u/s to Sunamganj at d/s. Different hydrodynamic characteristics such as variation in water level, velocity, discharge and flash flood analysis due to peak flow change at the Chhatak transit for the year 2000 are assessed. The result output shows, maximum water level and discharge of Surma River is obtained during the monsoon. The velocity is also high during this period. During the winter, discharge and velocity are almost zero. Flash Flood analysis of Surma River shows rapid change in water level and flow during the month of April, 2000 with respect to flood level. Due to its development on a short time, the changes in water level and discharge will show its devastating impact. Overall, Hydrodynamic analysis will help to understand the characteristics and features of Surma River and Flash Flood analysis will shows its development and occurrence period in Surma River along with impacts.

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