Shivaji Mukherjee | University of Toronto (original) (raw)

Papers by Shivaji Mukherjee

Social Science Research Network, Aug 25, 2013

What are the long-term effects of colonial institutions on insurgency? My article shows the histo... more What are the long-term effects of colonial institutions on insurgency? My article shows the historical origins of insurgency by addressing the puzzle of why the persistent Maoist insurgency, considered to be India's biggest internal security threat, affects some districts along the central eastern corridor of India but not others. Combining archival and interview data from fieldwork in Maoist zones with an original district-level quantitative data set, I demonstrate that different types of British colonial indirect rule set up the structural conditions of ethnic inequality and state weakness that facilitate emergence of Maoist control. I address the issue of selection bias, by developing a new instrument for the British choice of indirect rule through princely states, based on the exogenous effect of wars in Europe on British decisions in India. This article reconceptualizes colonial indirect rule and also presents new data on rebel control and precolonial rebellions.

INSURGENCY AND COUNTERINSURGENCY IN SOUTH ASIA Moeed Yusuf, editor Washington, DC: United States ... more INSURGENCY AND COUNTERINSURGENCY IN SOUTH ASIA Moeed Yusuf, editor Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2014 315 pagesThis book presents a comparative study of the conflict in South Asia. Although the region is characterized by noticeable historical and cultural similarities it is described as the least economically integrated in the world. The book is divided into four parts and nine chapters. The introduction and conclusion sections of the book make it easier for readers to understand the major focus and lessons from the various case studies.Part one is on India and discusses the conflict in Kashmir and India's response to Kashmir's insurgency. Part two focuses on Pakistan and considers the Taliban insurgency in FATA and the response of the state to Pakistani Taliban onslaught. Part three, which focuses on Nepal, examines Nepal's Maoist insurgency and Nepal's response to the armed insurgency including its political settlement. Part four focuses on Sri Lanka and discusses many missed opportunities as a result of post-independence ethnic tensions and insurgency. All the chapters provide useful insights into the dynamics underpinning the progression of conflict in the four cases examined in the book. The contributors studying the causes of insurgency analyzed contexts and factors responsible for tensions that can potentially build up to violent insurgency.The most recurring theme in all the chapters of the book was the absence of a holistic counterinsurgency approach by the states in question. All four states led with a security-centered strategy heavily focused on the use of force, intelligence-driven action plans, and heavy-handed measures in dealing with the local population. Authors of the Kashmir, Pakistani, and Nepalese case studies criticize this approach and emphasize the need for broader methods, including political and economic interventions.The book also indicates that the dilemma for peacebuilders is that the periods without manifest violence are the least likely to get the needed attention of the future antagonists. As is evident from the cases discussed in the book, states are reluctant to acknowledge problems that merit compromise at a time when the marginalized population is not willing or able to threaten violence. In each of the four cases, it is clear that states felt no compulsion to compromise early on. In fact, complacency led to heavyhanded responses, which, in turn, further stimulated the insurgents and their support base. This is exactly why local and external peacebuilders are essential since they can create awareness of the potential repercussions of unyieldingness upon the principal actors long before sustained violence breaks out. …

World Development, Nov 1, 2018

What are the long term effects of colonial institutions on insurgency? The literature on civil wa... more What are the long term effects of colonial institutions on insurgency? The literature on civil wars has not explored the historical legacies of colonial institutions for insurgency. I address this gap in the literature, by exploiting sub-national variation in the most important internal security threat in the world's largest democracy-the Maoist insurgency in India. Within India, I focus on the crucial case of the Maoist rebels in the tribal state of Chhattisgarh in central India which epitomizes the causal mechanism of indirect rule through native princely states creating enclaves of weak state capacity, low development and tribal grievances due to natural resource exploitation. I test my theory on a new dataset at the sub district level within Chhattisgarh, and use instrumental variable regression to address endogeneity due to selection bias, combined with historical analysis and interview data to demonstrate path dependence. This study demonstrates historical origins of weak state capacity and ethnic grievances due to natural resource exploitation, which are important explanations for civil war onset. It also sets the agenda for further research on other cases where colonial indirect rule creates conditions for insurgency, like the Taliban in FATA in Pakistan, the ethnic insurgencies in Burma's peripheries, and leftist insurgencies in Nepal, Peru and Colombia.

Journal of Conflict Resolution, Sep 27, 2017

What are the long-term effects of colonial institutions on insurgency? My article shows the histo... more What are the long-term effects of colonial institutions on insurgency? My article shows the historical origins of insurgency by addressing the puzzle of why the persistent Maoist insurgency, considered to be India's biggest internal security threat, affects some districts along the central eastern corridor of India but not others. Combining archival and interview data from fieldwork in Maoist zones with an original district-level quantitative data set, I demonstrate that different types of British colonial indirect rule set up the structural conditions of ethnic inequality and state weakness that facilitate emergence of Maoist control. I address the issue of selection bias, by developing a new instrument for the British choice of indirect rule through princely states, based on the exogenous effect of wars in Europe on British decisions in India. This article reconceptualizes colonial indirect rule and also presents new data on rebel control and precolonial rebellions.

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Jun 2, 2021

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Jun 2, 2021

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Jun 2, 2021

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Jun 2, 2021

The Economic Journal, Nov 16, 2021

Does pre-colonial history-and in particular the role of interstate warfare-help explain long-run ... more Does pre-colonial history-and in particular the role of interstate warfare-help explain long-run development patterns across India? To address this question, we construct a new geocoded database of historical conflicts on the Indian subcontinent. We document a robust positive relationship between pre-colonial conflict exposure and local economic development today. Drawing on archival and secondary data, we show that districts that were more exposed to pre-colonial conflict experienced greater early state-making, followed by lower political violence and higher investments in physical and human capital in the long term.

Civil Wars, Apr 3, 2014

There is a puzzle yet unanswered by theorists of civil war – why are the longest insurgencies low... more There is a puzzle yet unanswered by theorists of civil war – why are the longest insurgencies low levels of violence? I argue that medium capacity states with multiple insurgencies tend to choose a counter insurgency strategy of containment vis-à-vis peripheral sons of the soil insurgencies, causing them to become stalemated low scale conflicts. While the current literature focuses on commitment problems, or low state capacity to explain such persistent low intensity insurgencies, my theory suggests that central politicians of these medium capacity states try to follow a policy of containment, particularly vis-à-vis the peripheral ethnic ‘sons of the soil’ insurgencies which are of low priority in terms of threat to political survival of these central politicians. The theory is tested on the Fearon (2004) data-set, and shows that those medium capacity states with multiple conflicts and sons of the soil insurgencies tend to have these low intensity long lasting insurgencies. This paper contributes to the literature on civil war duration, and also to the literature on sons of the soil conflicts. It investigates the different conditions under which state elites do not have sufficient incentives to try and eliminate rebels, because it is unacceptably costly to do so.

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Jun 2, 2021

What explains the peculiar spatial variation of Maoist insurgency in India? Mukherjee develops a ... more What explains the peculiar spatial variation of Maoist insurgency in India? Mukherjee develops a novel typology of colonial indirect rule and land tenure in India, showing how they can lead to land inequality, weak state and Maoist insurgency. Using a multi-method research design that combines qualitative analysis of archival data on Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh states, Mukherjee demonstrates path dependence of land/ethnic inequality leading to Maoist insurgency. This is nested within a quantitative analysis of a district level dataset which uses an instrumental variable analysis to address potential selection bias in colonial choice of princely states. The author also analyses various Maoist documents, and interviews with key human rights activists, police officers, and bureaucrats, providing rich contextual understanding of the motivations of agents. Furthermore, he demonstrates the generalizability of his theory to cases of colonial frontier indirect rule causing ​ethnic secessionist insurgency in Burma, and the Taliban insurgency in Pakistan.

Colonial Institutions and Civil War, 2021

Asian Security, 2021

What is the role of colonial institutions in creating the conditions for nativist sons of the soi... more What is the role of colonial institutions in creating the conditions for nativist sons of the soil (SoS) insurgency? The literature on sons of the soil conflicts has not explored the historical legacies of colonial institutions, nor has it sufficiently analyzed how land tenure institutions create sons of the soil conflict. I address these gaps, by proposing a theory of how British colonial indirect rule and land tenure institutions in India caused exploitation of land resources of indigenous tribes by ethnic outsiders, which caused SoS grievances that persisted through path dependence and were later mobilized by Maoist rebels in the former princely state of Bastar in Central India. I show generalizability of this mechanism to other cases of leftist insurgency in Colombia, Mexico and Philippines.

Data and code to replicate all the results in the article Dincecco, Mark; Fenske, James; Menon, A... more Data and code to replicate all the results in the article Dincecco, Mark; Fenske, James; Menon, Anil; and Mukherjee, Shivaji "Pre-Colonial Warfare and Long-Run Development in India," Economic Journal.

Colonial Institutions and Civil War, 2021

Civil Wars, 2014

There is a puzzle yet unanswered by theorists of civil war – why are the longest insurgencies low... more There is a puzzle yet unanswered by theorists of civil war – why are the longest insurgencies low levels of violence? I argue that medium capacity states with multiple insurgencies tend to choose a counter insurgency strategy of containment vis-à-vis peripheral sons of the soil insurgencies, causing them to become stalemated low scale conflicts. While the current literature focuses on commitment problems, or low state capacity to explain such persistent low intensity insurgencies, my theory suggests that central politicians of these medium capacity states try to follow a policy of containment, particularly vis-à-vis the peripheral ethnic ‘sons of the soil’ insurgencies which are of low priority in terms of threat to political survival of these central politicians. The theory is tested on the Fearon (2004) data-set, and shows that those medium capacity states with multiple conflicts and sons of the soil insurgencies tend to have these low intensity long lasting insurgencies. This paper contributes to the literature on civil war duration, and also to the literature on sons of the soil conflicts. It investigates the different conditions under which state elites do not have sufficient incentives to try and eliminate rebels, because it is unacceptably costly to do so.

Supplemental Material, JCR-16-0250.R1 for Colonial Origins of Maoist Insurgency in India: Histori... more Supplemental Material, JCR-16-0250.R1 for Colonial Origins of Maoist Insurgency in India: Historical Institutions and Civil War by Michael C. Horowitz, Matthew Fuhrmann, and Shivaji Mukherjee in Journal of Conflict Resolution

Colonial Institutions and Civil War

Social Science Research Network, Aug 25, 2013

What are the long-term effects of colonial institutions on insurgency? My article shows the histo... more What are the long-term effects of colonial institutions on insurgency? My article shows the historical origins of insurgency by addressing the puzzle of why the persistent Maoist insurgency, considered to be India's biggest internal security threat, affects some districts along the central eastern corridor of India but not others. Combining archival and interview data from fieldwork in Maoist zones with an original district-level quantitative data set, I demonstrate that different types of British colonial indirect rule set up the structural conditions of ethnic inequality and state weakness that facilitate emergence of Maoist control. I address the issue of selection bias, by developing a new instrument for the British choice of indirect rule through princely states, based on the exogenous effect of wars in Europe on British decisions in India. This article reconceptualizes colonial indirect rule and also presents new data on rebel control and precolonial rebellions.

INSURGENCY AND COUNTERINSURGENCY IN SOUTH ASIA Moeed Yusuf, editor Washington, DC: United States ... more INSURGENCY AND COUNTERINSURGENCY IN SOUTH ASIA Moeed Yusuf, editor Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2014 315 pagesThis book presents a comparative study of the conflict in South Asia. Although the region is characterized by noticeable historical and cultural similarities it is described as the least economically integrated in the world. The book is divided into four parts and nine chapters. The introduction and conclusion sections of the book make it easier for readers to understand the major focus and lessons from the various case studies.Part one is on India and discusses the conflict in Kashmir and India's response to Kashmir's insurgency. Part two focuses on Pakistan and considers the Taliban insurgency in FATA and the response of the state to Pakistani Taliban onslaught. Part three, which focuses on Nepal, examines Nepal's Maoist insurgency and Nepal's response to the armed insurgency including its political settlement. Part four focuses on Sri Lanka and discusses many missed opportunities as a result of post-independence ethnic tensions and insurgency. All the chapters provide useful insights into the dynamics underpinning the progression of conflict in the four cases examined in the book. The contributors studying the causes of insurgency analyzed contexts and factors responsible for tensions that can potentially build up to violent insurgency.The most recurring theme in all the chapters of the book was the absence of a holistic counterinsurgency approach by the states in question. All four states led with a security-centered strategy heavily focused on the use of force, intelligence-driven action plans, and heavy-handed measures in dealing with the local population. Authors of the Kashmir, Pakistani, and Nepalese case studies criticize this approach and emphasize the need for broader methods, including political and economic interventions.The book also indicates that the dilemma for peacebuilders is that the periods without manifest violence are the least likely to get the needed attention of the future antagonists. As is evident from the cases discussed in the book, states are reluctant to acknowledge problems that merit compromise at a time when the marginalized population is not willing or able to threaten violence. In each of the four cases, it is clear that states felt no compulsion to compromise early on. In fact, complacency led to heavyhanded responses, which, in turn, further stimulated the insurgents and their support base. This is exactly why local and external peacebuilders are essential since they can create awareness of the potential repercussions of unyieldingness upon the principal actors long before sustained violence breaks out. …

World Development, Nov 1, 2018

What are the long term effects of colonial institutions on insurgency? The literature on civil wa... more What are the long term effects of colonial institutions on insurgency? The literature on civil wars has not explored the historical legacies of colonial institutions for insurgency. I address this gap in the literature, by exploiting sub-national variation in the most important internal security threat in the world's largest democracy-the Maoist insurgency in India. Within India, I focus on the crucial case of the Maoist rebels in the tribal state of Chhattisgarh in central India which epitomizes the causal mechanism of indirect rule through native princely states creating enclaves of weak state capacity, low development and tribal grievances due to natural resource exploitation. I test my theory on a new dataset at the sub district level within Chhattisgarh, and use instrumental variable regression to address endogeneity due to selection bias, combined with historical analysis and interview data to demonstrate path dependence. This study demonstrates historical origins of weak state capacity and ethnic grievances due to natural resource exploitation, which are important explanations for civil war onset. It also sets the agenda for further research on other cases where colonial indirect rule creates conditions for insurgency, like the Taliban in FATA in Pakistan, the ethnic insurgencies in Burma's peripheries, and leftist insurgencies in Nepal, Peru and Colombia.

Journal of Conflict Resolution, Sep 27, 2017

What are the long-term effects of colonial institutions on insurgency? My article shows the histo... more What are the long-term effects of colonial institutions on insurgency? My article shows the historical origins of insurgency by addressing the puzzle of why the persistent Maoist insurgency, considered to be India's biggest internal security threat, affects some districts along the central eastern corridor of India but not others. Combining archival and interview data from fieldwork in Maoist zones with an original district-level quantitative data set, I demonstrate that different types of British colonial indirect rule set up the structural conditions of ethnic inequality and state weakness that facilitate emergence of Maoist control. I address the issue of selection bias, by developing a new instrument for the British choice of indirect rule through princely states, based on the exogenous effect of wars in Europe on British decisions in India. This article reconceptualizes colonial indirect rule and also presents new data on rebel control and precolonial rebellions.

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Jun 2, 2021

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Jun 2, 2021

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Jun 2, 2021

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Jun 2, 2021

The Economic Journal, Nov 16, 2021

Does pre-colonial history-and in particular the role of interstate warfare-help explain long-run ... more Does pre-colonial history-and in particular the role of interstate warfare-help explain long-run development patterns across India? To address this question, we construct a new geocoded database of historical conflicts on the Indian subcontinent. We document a robust positive relationship between pre-colonial conflict exposure and local economic development today. Drawing on archival and secondary data, we show that districts that were more exposed to pre-colonial conflict experienced greater early state-making, followed by lower political violence and higher investments in physical and human capital in the long term.

Civil Wars, Apr 3, 2014

There is a puzzle yet unanswered by theorists of civil war – why are the longest insurgencies low... more There is a puzzle yet unanswered by theorists of civil war – why are the longest insurgencies low levels of violence? I argue that medium capacity states with multiple insurgencies tend to choose a counter insurgency strategy of containment vis-à-vis peripheral sons of the soil insurgencies, causing them to become stalemated low scale conflicts. While the current literature focuses on commitment problems, or low state capacity to explain such persistent low intensity insurgencies, my theory suggests that central politicians of these medium capacity states try to follow a policy of containment, particularly vis-à-vis the peripheral ethnic ‘sons of the soil’ insurgencies which are of low priority in terms of threat to political survival of these central politicians. The theory is tested on the Fearon (2004) data-set, and shows that those medium capacity states with multiple conflicts and sons of the soil insurgencies tend to have these low intensity long lasting insurgencies. This paper contributes to the literature on civil war duration, and also to the literature on sons of the soil conflicts. It investigates the different conditions under which state elites do not have sufficient incentives to try and eliminate rebels, because it is unacceptably costly to do so.

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Jun 2, 2021

What explains the peculiar spatial variation of Maoist insurgency in India? Mukherjee develops a ... more What explains the peculiar spatial variation of Maoist insurgency in India? Mukherjee develops a novel typology of colonial indirect rule and land tenure in India, showing how they can lead to land inequality, weak state and Maoist insurgency. Using a multi-method research design that combines qualitative analysis of archival data on Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh states, Mukherjee demonstrates path dependence of land/ethnic inequality leading to Maoist insurgency. This is nested within a quantitative analysis of a district level dataset which uses an instrumental variable analysis to address potential selection bias in colonial choice of princely states. The author also analyses various Maoist documents, and interviews with key human rights activists, police officers, and bureaucrats, providing rich contextual understanding of the motivations of agents. Furthermore, he demonstrates the generalizability of his theory to cases of colonial frontier indirect rule causing ​ethnic secessionist insurgency in Burma, and the Taliban insurgency in Pakistan.

Colonial Institutions and Civil War, 2021

Asian Security, 2021

What is the role of colonial institutions in creating the conditions for nativist sons of the soi... more What is the role of colonial institutions in creating the conditions for nativist sons of the soil (SoS) insurgency? The literature on sons of the soil conflicts has not explored the historical legacies of colonial institutions, nor has it sufficiently analyzed how land tenure institutions create sons of the soil conflict. I address these gaps, by proposing a theory of how British colonial indirect rule and land tenure institutions in India caused exploitation of land resources of indigenous tribes by ethnic outsiders, which caused SoS grievances that persisted through path dependence and were later mobilized by Maoist rebels in the former princely state of Bastar in Central India. I show generalizability of this mechanism to other cases of leftist insurgency in Colombia, Mexico and Philippines.

Data and code to replicate all the results in the article Dincecco, Mark; Fenske, James; Menon, A... more Data and code to replicate all the results in the article Dincecco, Mark; Fenske, James; Menon, Anil; and Mukherjee, Shivaji "Pre-Colonial Warfare and Long-Run Development in India," Economic Journal.

Colonial Institutions and Civil War, 2021

Civil Wars, 2014

There is a puzzle yet unanswered by theorists of civil war – why are the longest insurgencies low... more There is a puzzle yet unanswered by theorists of civil war – why are the longest insurgencies low levels of violence? I argue that medium capacity states with multiple insurgencies tend to choose a counter insurgency strategy of containment vis-à-vis peripheral sons of the soil insurgencies, causing them to become stalemated low scale conflicts. While the current literature focuses on commitment problems, or low state capacity to explain such persistent low intensity insurgencies, my theory suggests that central politicians of these medium capacity states try to follow a policy of containment, particularly vis-à-vis the peripheral ethnic ‘sons of the soil’ insurgencies which are of low priority in terms of threat to political survival of these central politicians. The theory is tested on the Fearon (2004) data-set, and shows that those medium capacity states with multiple conflicts and sons of the soil insurgencies tend to have these low intensity long lasting insurgencies. This paper contributes to the literature on civil war duration, and also to the literature on sons of the soil conflicts. It investigates the different conditions under which state elites do not have sufficient incentives to try and eliminate rebels, because it is unacceptably costly to do so.

Supplemental Material, JCR-16-0250.R1 for Colonial Origins of Maoist Insurgency in India: Histori... more Supplemental Material, JCR-16-0250.R1 for Colonial Origins of Maoist Insurgency in India: Historical Institutions and Civil War by Michael C. Horowitz, Matthew Fuhrmann, and Shivaji Mukherjee in Journal of Conflict Resolution

Colonial Institutions and Civil War