Marcel van Egmond | University of Amsterdam (original) (raw)

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Papers by Marcel van Egmond

Encyclopedia of Quality of Life and Well-Being Research, 2014

Journal of Population Research, 2010

This paper examines trends over time in attitudes to gender equality in Australia. We use data fr... more This paper examines trends over time in attitudes to gender equality in Australia. We use data from repeated cross-sectional surveys in Australia to investigate trends in beliefs about men's and women's work and family roles between 1986 and 2005. We find that men are consistently more conservative than women, that younger cohorts tend to be less conservative than older cohorts, but those born between 1960 and 1980 are more egalitarian on some issues than those born after 1980. There is also evidence that the overall trend toward more egalitarian gender attitudes is most marked in Australia up until the mid-1990s with the trend flattening and in some cases, even reversing after this period. The paper concludes that there is currently a period of relative stability in gender attitudes in Australia, but with some tendency toward more conservative views.

European Journal of Political Research, 1998

Research into electoral participation has produced two traditions, one focusing mainly on individ... more Research into electoral participation has produced two traditions, one focusing mainly on individual level explanations while the second concentrates primarily on aggregate level explanations. By bringing these two research approaches together, we are not only able to explain individual electoral participation more thoroughly, but we also gain additional insight into the influence of aggregate level characteristics on individual behavior. We combine eight National Election Studies held in the Netherlands between 1971 and 1994 enabling us to study variation on the individual and the contextual (aggregate) level, including interactions between these two levels. Findings show that the addition of contextual characteristics form a significant improvement to an individual level model predicting electoral participation. Findings also confirm our expectation that the influence of individual characteristics such as education or political interest is dependent upon contextual characteristics describing for instance the salience of the election.

Electoral Studies, 2011

Increasing politicization in EU member states about European issues can be expected to strengthen... more Increasing politicization in EU member states about European issues can be expected to strengthen the impact of attitudes towards Europe on vote choice in European Parliament (EP) elections. At the same time this impact is likely to vary between voters and contexts as a function of political information. This study explores the role of political information in explaining individual and contextual heterogeneity in the degree of EU issue voting. Using a two-step hierarchical estimation procedure to explore both individual and contextual variation, we show that while EU issue voting in the 2009 EP elections is only slightly more pronounced among the politically sophisticated, it is clearly more extensive in contexts that provide higher levels of political information on European matters.

This study reassesses the ability of the mass media to influence voter opinions directly. Combini... more This study reassesses the ability of the mass media to influence voter opinions directly. Combining data on media content with individuals' assessments of British political parties during the 2005 general election campaign allows a test of newspapers' persuasive influence in a way previously considered a 'virtual impossibility'. Utilizing repeated measures from the 2005 BES campaign panel, multilevel regression analysis reveals significant impact of partisan slant not just on the evaluation of the party mentioned but also on evaluations of its competitor(s). The strongest evidence of direct media persuasion is provided by the finding that variation in slant over the campaign drives how undecided voters evaluate the incumbent government party, even when controlling for a newspaper's average partisan slant. The idea of the media as active persuader of the public has waxed and waned in media research over the past decades. The pervasiveness of the media is now accepted, but its persuasiveness is often dismissed. This article aims to challenge this notion, in line with recent work in political science and political communication investigating the conditions under which partisan bias and editorial comment can have a direct and directional impact on public opinion. 1

British Journal of Political Science, 2012

ABSTRACT This study reassesses the ability of the mass media to influence voter opinions directly... more ABSTRACT This study reassesses the ability of the mass media to influence voter opinions directly. Combining data on media content with individuals’ assessments of British political parties during the 2005 general election campaign allows a test of newspapers’ persuasive influence in a way previously considered a ‘virtual impossibility’. Utilizing repeated measures from the 2005 BES campaign panel, multilevel regression analysis reveals significant impact of partisan slant not just on the evaluation of the party mentioned but also on evaluations of its competitor(s). The strongest evidence of direct media persuasion is provided by the finding that variation in slant over the campaign drives how undecided voters evaluate the incumbent government party, even when controlling for a newspaper's average partisan slant.

Revue de la Maison Francaise dÓxford, 2002

ABSTRACT This study reassesses the ability of the mass media to influence voter opinions directly... more ABSTRACT This study reassesses the ability of the mass media to influence voter opinions directly. Combining data on media content with individuals’ assessments of British political parties during the 2005 general election campaign allows a test of newspapers’ persuasive influence in a way previously considered a ‘virtual impossibility’. Utilizing repeated measures from the 2005 BES campaign panel, multilevel regression analysis reveals significant impact of partisan slant not just on the evaluation of the party mentioned but also on evaluations of its competitor(s). The strongest evidence of direct media persuasion is provided by the finding that variation in slant over the campaign drives how undecided voters evaluate the incumbent government party, even when controlling for a newspaper's average partisan slant.

In this paper, we assess the impact of the representativeness of European party systems on satisf... more In this paper, we assess the impact of the representativeness of European party systems on satisfaction with democracy. Starting from the proposition that voters care not just about what they get out of government, but also about having their views represented, we examine whether satisfaction is driven by a new measure of policy (in)congruence that we are introducing, namely the ideological distance between a voter and his or her closest party. Using European Election Study data from 1989-2009, we measure these distances by comparing respondents' self-and party-placements on two dimensions: left-right ideology and a European integration policy scale. Controlling for a range of socio-demographic and attitudinal variables that have previously been shown to impact on system support, and working with a multilevel design that nests individuals within their country and survey year, we find that perceived policy-distance matters: the more distance a voter sees between herself and her nearest party's left-right or EU policy position, the less satisfied she is with democracy. We also observe that mean distances between voters and parties have increased in the past few years. This lends support to suggestions that recent manifestations of public dissatisfaction and cynicism in Europe has to do with the declining representativeness of party systems.

British Journal of Political Science, 2012

ABSTRACT This study reassesses the ability of the mass media to influence voter opinions directly... more ABSTRACT This study reassesses the ability of the mass media to influence voter opinions directly. Combining data on media content with individuals’ assessments of British political parties during the 2005 general election campaign allows a test of newspapers’ persuasive influence in a way previously considered a ‘virtual impossibility’. Utilizing repeated measures from the 2005 BES campaign panel, multilevel regression analysis reveals significant impact of partisan slant not just on the evaluation of the party mentioned but also on evaluations of its competitor(s). The strongest evidence of direct media persuasion is provided by the finding that variation in slant over the campaign drives how undecided voters evaluate the incumbent government party, even when controlling for a newspaper's average partisan slant.

European Parliament (EP) elections are not national parliamentary elections. Yet it is tempting t... more European Parliament (EP) elections are not national parliamentary elections. Yet it is tempting to speculate about the consequences of EP election outcomes as if they were national parliamentary (NP) elections. Indeed, politicians and the media often discuss the outcomes of the European elections in terms that refer to the national, not the European political arena. In doing so it is commonplace to present the election outcome in terms of the composition of the national parliament had this election been a national one. Such a counterfactual representation, in which European parliamentary elections are presented as national parliamentary elections, will form the central perspective of this chapter. There are several reasons why a counterfactual representation of EP election outcomes may be of interest to us. If voters act similarly in European and national parliamentary elections, the outcomes of European parliamentary elections may have considerable consequences for the national political arena. Parties that fared well in the EP elections -when compared to the preceding NP elections -may see an increase in their national political clout. A coalition partner with a particularly successful EP result may want to cash in on its European success at the national level by demanding a greater say in government -even though their national vote share has not changed. The consequences may vary from a change in the direction of a government's policies to a complete collapse of the coalition, and fall of the government. 1 All on the basis of European elections that were treated as if they were national elections. However, the counterfactual representation may also show us the flipside of the coin: what if voters do not act the same in European and national parliamentary elections? What if they would not decide to back the same party in EP and NP elections, but instead support one party in European, and another one in national parliamentary elections? As will be shown below, some voters do actually vote for different 1 To illustrate various national consequences of the 1989 European elections: the outcome of the European Elections played a role in the eventual downfall of British Prime Minister Mrs Thatcher (Franklin & Curtice , 1996, p. 95); in Spain, electoral success in those same EP elections prompted the ruling PSOE to call early national elections (del Castillo, 1996, p. 266); while the reverse was the case in Italy, where the governing parties decided against calling early national elections following their disappointing showing in the European Elections (Mannheimer, 1996, p. 200).

Electoral Studies, 2011

Increasing politicization in EU member states about European issues can be expected to strengthen... more Increasing politicization in EU member states about European issues can be expected to strengthen the impact of attitudes towards Europe on vote choice in European Parliament (EP) elections. At the same time this impact is likely to vary between voters and contexts as a function of political information. This study explores the role of political information in explaining individual and contextual heterogeneity in the degree of EU issue voting. Using a two-step hierarchical estimation procedure to explore both individual and contextual variation, we show that while EU issue voting in the 2009 EP elections is only slightly more pronounced among the politically sophisticated, it is clearly more extensive in contexts that provide higher levels of political information on European matters.► EU issue voting in EP elections is a wide-spread phenomenon by 2009. ► We find evidence of individual and contextual variation in EU issue voting in the 2009 EP elections. ► EU issue voting is only slightly more pronounced among the politically sophisticated. ► EU issue voting is more extensive in contexts providing high levels of EU-related information.

Journal of European Social Policy, 2012

This paper argues that immigration has competing implications for attitudes about the welfare sta... more This paper argues that immigration has competing implications for attitudes about the welfare state depending on the level at which immigration is experienced. Variations across occupations in shares of employees that are foreign born raise insecurities of those in such occupations in ways that might overwhelm the way high foreign-born shares of the population might reduce solidarity or increase fiscal burdens. Hence, experiencing more immigration in one's occupation might be more positive for support for government redistribution than experiencing more national-level immigration. We test this and other expectations on survey data in 17 European polities, focused on occupational and national measures of immigration. While national-level exposure to foreign-born residents tends to diminish support for government redistribution, occupational-level exposure to immigration tends to spur such support. These results suggest that immigration is relevant to the politics of inequality, but in ways more complicated than recent scholarship suggests.

European Journal of Political Research, 1998

Research into electoral participation has produced two traditions, one focusing mainly on individ... more Research into electoral participation has produced two traditions, one focusing mainly on individual level explanations while the second concentrates primarily on aggregate level explanations. By bringing these two research approaches together, we are not only able to explain individual electoral participation more thoroughly, but we also gain additional insight into the influence of aggregate level characteristics on individual behavior. We combine eight National Election Studies held in the Netherlands between 1971 and 1994 enabling us to study variation on the individual and the contextual (aggregate) level, including interactions between these two levels. Findings show that the addition of contextual characteristics form a significant improvement to an individual level model predicting electoral participation. Findings also confirm our expectation that the influence of individual characteristics such as education or political interest is dependent upon contextual characteristics describing for instance the salience of the election.

Encyclopedia of Quality of Life and Well-Being Research, 2014

Journal of Population Research, 2010

This paper examines trends over time in attitudes to gender equality in Australia. We use data fr... more This paper examines trends over time in attitudes to gender equality in Australia. We use data from repeated cross-sectional surveys in Australia to investigate trends in beliefs about men's and women's work and family roles between 1986 and 2005. We find that men are consistently more conservative than women, that younger cohorts tend to be less conservative than older cohorts, but those born between 1960 and 1980 are more egalitarian on some issues than those born after 1980. There is also evidence that the overall trend toward more egalitarian gender attitudes is most marked in Australia up until the mid-1990s with the trend flattening and in some cases, even reversing after this period. The paper concludes that there is currently a period of relative stability in gender attitudes in Australia, but with some tendency toward more conservative views.

European Journal of Political Research, 1998

Research into electoral participation has produced two traditions, one focusing mainly on individ... more Research into electoral participation has produced two traditions, one focusing mainly on individual level explanations while the second concentrates primarily on aggregate level explanations. By bringing these two research approaches together, we are not only able to explain individual electoral participation more thoroughly, but we also gain additional insight into the influence of aggregate level characteristics on individual behavior. We combine eight National Election Studies held in the Netherlands between 1971 and 1994 enabling us to study variation on the individual and the contextual (aggregate) level, including interactions between these two levels. Findings show that the addition of contextual characteristics form a significant improvement to an individual level model predicting electoral participation. Findings also confirm our expectation that the influence of individual characteristics such as education or political interest is dependent upon contextual characteristics describing for instance the salience of the election.

Electoral Studies, 2011

Increasing politicization in EU member states about European issues can be expected to strengthen... more Increasing politicization in EU member states about European issues can be expected to strengthen the impact of attitudes towards Europe on vote choice in European Parliament (EP) elections. At the same time this impact is likely to vary between voters and contexts as a function of political information. This study explores the role of political information in explaining individual and contextual heterogeneity in the degree of EU issue voting. Using a two-step hierarchical estimation procedure to explore both individual and contextual variation, we show that while EU issue voting in the 2009 EP elections is only slightly more pronounced among the politically sophisticated, it is clearly more extensive in contexts that provide higher levels of political information on European matters.

This study reassesses the ability of the mass media to influence voter opinions directly. Combini... more This study reassesses the ability of the mass media to influence voter opinions directly. Combining data on media content with individuals' assessments of British political parties during the 2005 general election campaign allows a test of newspapers' persuasive influence in a way previously considered a 'virtual impossibility'. Utilizing repeated measures from the 2005 BES campaign panel, multilevel regression analysis reveals significant impact of partisan slant not just on the evaluation of the party mentioned but also on evaluations of its competitor(s). The strongest evidence of direct media persuasion is provided by the finding that variation in slant over the campaign drives how undecided voters evaluate the incumbent government party, even when controlling for a newspaper's average partisan slant. The idea of the media as active persuader of the public has waxed and waned in media research over the past decades. The pervasiveness of the media is now accepted, but its persuasiveness is often dismissed. This article aims to challenge this notion, in line with recent work in political science and political communication investigating the conditions under which partisan bias and editorial comment can have a direct and directional impact on public opinion. 1

British Journal of Political Science, 2012

ABSTRACT This study reassesses the ability of the mass media to influence voter opinions directly... more ABSTRACT This study reassesses the ability of the mass media to influence voter opinions directly. Combining data on media content with individuals’ assessments of British political parties during the 2005 general election campaign allows a test of newspapers’ persuasive influence in a way previously considered a ‘virtual impossibility’. Utilizing repeated measures from the 2005 BES campaign panel, multilevel regression analysis reveals significant impact of partisan slant not just on the evaluation of the party mentioned but also on evaluations of its competitor(s). The strongest evidence of direct media persuasion is provided by the finding that variation in slant over the campaign drives how undecided voters evaluate the incumbent government party, even when controlling for a newspaper's average partisan slant.

Revue de la Maison Francaise dÓxford, 2002

ABSTRACT This study reassesses the ability of the mass media to influence voter opinions directly... more ABSTRACT This study reassesses the ability of the mass media to influence voter opinions directly. Combining data on media content with individuals’ assessments of British political parties during the 2005 general election campaign allows a test of newspapers’ persuasive influence in a way previously considered a ‘virtual impossibility’. Utilizing repeated measures from the 2005 BES campaign panel, multilevel regression analysis reveals significant impact of partisan slant not just on the evaluation of the party mentioned but also on evaluations of its competitor(s). The strongest evidence of direct media persuasion is provided by the finding that variation in slant over the campaign drives how undecided voters evaluate the incumbent government party, even when controlling for a newspaper's average partisan slant.

In this paper, we assess the impact of the representativeness of European party systems on satisf... more In this paper, we assess the impact of the representativeness of European party systems on satisfaction with democracy. Starting from the proposition that voters care not just about what they get out of government, but also about having their views represented, we examine whether satisfaction is driven by a new measure of policy (in)congruence that we are introducing, namely the ideological distance between a voter and his or her closest party. Using European Election Study data from 1989-2009, we measure these distances by comparing respondents' self-and party-placements on two dimensions: left-right ideology and a European integration policy scale. Controlling for a range of socio-demographic and attitudinal variables that have previously been shown to impact on system support, and working with a multilevel design that nests individuals within their country and survey year, we find that perceived policy-distance matters: the more distance a voter sees between herself and her nearest party's left-right or EU policy position, the less satisfied she is with democracy. We also observe that mean distances between voters and parties have increased in the past few years. This lends support to suggestions that recent manifestations of public dissatisfaction and cynicism in Europe has to do with the declining representativeness of party systems.

British Journal of Political Science, 2012

ABSTRACT This study reassesses the ability of the mass media to influence voter opinions directly... more ABSTRACT This study reassesses the ability of the mass media to influence voter opinions directly. Combining data on media content with individuals’ assessments of British political parties during the 2005 general election campaign allows a test of newspapers’ persuasive influence in a way previously considered a ‘virtual impossibility’. Utilizing repeated measures from the 2005 BES campaign panel, multilevel regression analysis reveals significant impact of partisan slant not just on the evaluation of the party mentioned but also on evaluations of its competitor(s). The strongest evidence of direct media persuasion is provided by the finding that variation in slant over the campaign drives how undecided voters evaluate the incumbent government party, even when controlling for a newspaper's average partisan slant.

European Parliament (EP) elections are not national parliamentary elections. Yet it is tempting t... more European Parliament (EP) elections are not national parliamentary elections. Yet it is tempting to speculate about the consequences of EP election outcomes as if they were national parliamentary (NP) elections. Indeed, politicians and the media often discuss the outcomes of the European elections in terms that refer to the national, not the European political arena. In doing so it is commonplace to present the election outcome in terms of the composition of the national parliament had this election been a national one. Such a counterfactual representation, in which European parliamentary elections are presented as national parliamentary elections, will form the central perspective of this chapter. There are several reasons why a counterfactual representation of EP election outcomes may be of interest to us. If voters act similarly in European and national parliamentary elections, the outcomes of European parliamentary elections may have considerable consequences for the national political arena. Parties that fared well in the EP elections -when compared to the preceding NP elections -may see an increase in their national political clout. A coalition partner with a particularly successful EP result may want to cash in on its European success at the national level by demanding a greater say in government -even though their national vote share has not changed. The consequences may vary from a change in the direction of a government's policies to a complete collapse of the coalition, and fall of the government. 1 All on the basis of European elections that were treated as if they were national elections. However, the counterfactual representation may also show us the flipside of the coin: what if voters do not act the same in European and national parliamentary elections? What if they would not decide to back the same party in EP and NP elections, but instead support one party in European, and another one in national parliamentary elections? As will be shown below, some voters do actually vote for different 1 To illustrate various national consequences of the 1989 European elections: the outcome of the European Elections played a role in the eventual downfall of British Prime Minister Mrs Thatcher (Franklin & Curtice , 1996, p. 95); in Spain, electoral success in those same EP elections prompted the ruling PSOE to call early national elections (del Castillo, 1996, p. 266); while the reverse was the case in Italy, where the governing parties decided against calling early national elections following their disappointing showing in the European Elections (Mannheimer, 1996, p. 200).

Electoral Studies, 2011

Increasing politicization in EU member states about European issues can be expected to strengthen... more Increasing politicization in EU member states about European issues can be expected to strengthen the impact of attitudes towards Europe on vote choice in European Parliament (EP) elections. At the same time this impact is likely to vary between voters and contexts as a function of political information. This study explores the role of political information in explaining individual and contextual heterogeneity in the degree of EU issue voting. Using a two-step hierarchical estimation procedure to explore both individual and contextual variation, we show that while EU issue voting in the 2009 EP elections is only slightly more pronounced among the politically sophisticated, it is clearly more extensive in contexts that provide higher levels of political information on European matters.► EU issue voting in EP elections is a wide-spread phenomenon by 2009. ► We find evidence of individual and contextual variation in EU issue voting in the 2009 EP elections. ► EU issue voting is only slightly more pronounced among the politically sophisticated. ► EU issue voting is more extensive in contexts providing high levels of EU-related information.

Journal of European Social Policy, 2012

This paper argues that immigration has competing implications for attitudes about the welfare sta... more This paper argues that immigration has competing implications for attitudes about the welfare state depending on the level at which immigration is experienced. Variations across occupations in shares of employees that are foreign born raise insecurities of those in such occupations in ways that might overwhelm the way high foreign-born shares of the population might reduce solidarity or increase fiscal burdens. Hence, experiencing more immigration in one's occupation might be more positive for support for government redistribution than experiencing more national-level immigration. We test this and other expectations on survey data in 17 European polities, focused on occupational and national measures of immigration. While national-level exposure to foreign-born residents tends to diminish support for government redistribution, occupational-level exposure to immigration tends to spur such support. These results suggest that immigration is relevant to the politics of inequality, but in ways more complicated than recent scholarship suggests.

European Journal of Political Research, 1998

Research into electoral participation has produced two traditions, one focusing mainly on individ... more Research into electoral participation has produced two traditions, one focusing mainly on individual level explanations while the second concentrates primarily on aggregate level explanations. By bringing these two research approaches together, we are not only able to explain individual electoral participation more thoroughly, but we also gain additional insight into the influence of aggregate level characteristics on individual behavior. We combine eight National Election Studies held in the Netherlands between 1971 and 1994 enabling us to study variation on the individual and the contextual (aggregate) level, including interactions between these two levels. Findings show that the addition of contextual characteristics form a significant improvement to an individual level model predicting electoral participation. Findings also confirm our expectation that the influence of individual characteristics such as education or political interest is dependent upon contextual characteristics describing for instance the salience of the election.