Navaratnam Ravinthirakumaran | Vavuniya campus of the university of jafna (original) (raw)
Papers by Navaratnam Ravinthirakumaran
South Asia Economic Journal, Feb 4, 2016
The export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis suggests that there is a strong positive linear relationsh... more The export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis suggests that there is a strong positive linear relationship between a country’s exports and economic growth. For many years, theoretical and empirical studies have examined the causal relationship between exports and economic growth and found that this relationship is one of interdependence rather than of unilateral causation. The purpose of this article is to empirically re-examine the ELG hypothesis in the context of two small South Asian countries: Bangladesh for the period of 1980–2011 and Sri Lanka for the period of 1984–2011. Using a model that controls for a host of domestic and international factors, this article tests the ELG hypothesis by employing the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test for cointegration and the Granger causality tests. The empirical results confirm the validity of the ELG hypothesis for both Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
International journal for innovation education and research, Aug 31, 2016
The impact of fiscal deficit on economic growth is one of the most widely debated issues among ec... more The impact of fiscal deficit on economic growth is one of the most widely debated issues among economists and policy makers in both developed and developing countries in the recent period. This paper seeks to examine the impact of fiscal deficit on economic growth in selected South Asian countries, namely, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka using time series annual data over the period 1980 to 2014. The paper uses cointegration analysis, error correction modelling and Granger causality test under a Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework. The results from this study confirmed that the fiscal deficit has a negative impact on economic growth in the South Asian countries considered in this study except Nepal, which confirmed the positive impact. The results also highlighted that the direction of causality for the SAARC countries is mixed where fiscal deficit causes economic growth for Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan, but the reverse is true for India and Sri Lanka.
Empirical Economics, Oct 13, 2018
The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect predicts that an exogenous adverse shock to terms of t... more The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect predicts that an exogenous adverse shock to terms of trade of a small economy leads to deterioration in its current account balance, and conversely. Most countries across the globe, large or small, have adopted trade liberalization for economic prosperity, which make the terms of trade of much importance for policy making. In this paper, we examine the validity of the HLM effect for five of the eight members of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation-a South Asian regional intergovernmental organization-over the period 1980-2015. Despite the potential for benefit from trade, the area remains understudied. We apply the cointegration and the Granger (non-) causality tests by employing both time series and panel methods. For a long-run equilibrium relationship, we implement the bounds testing approach, complemented by panel cointegration tests. For causality, in addition to testing for heterogeneous panels, we apply the conventional vector error correction model. We find support for the HLM effect for Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, but not India, the largest economy, conforming to the HLM prediction. The findings should help policymakers in assessing opportunities and challenges caused by exogenous shock from continued globalization and help to stay better prepared to address them.
International Journal of Accounting and Business Finance
Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy
Twin deficits hypothesis postulates that there is a strong positive linear relationship between a ... more Twin deficits hypothesis postulates that there is a strong positive linear relationship between a country’s budget deficit and its current account deficit. This paper empirically investigates the existence of this relationship in five South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries using time-series data for the period 1980 - 2012. The paper uses cointegration analysis, error correction modeling and Granger causality test under a vector autoregression framework. The results show that the direction of causality for the SAARC countries is mixed. The findings confirm that budget deficit causes current account deficit for Pakistan and Sri Lanka, whereas the reverse is true for India and Nepal. The direction of causality is found to be unidirectional from current account deficit to budget deficit in the short run for Bangladesh.
An International Journal of Tourism and Hospitality (Anatolia), 2022
The paper investigates the relationship between tourism, energy consumption, trade openness, econ... more The paper investigates the relationship between tourism, energy consumption, trade openness, economic growth, and CO2 emissions for 20 economies of the APEC region from 1995 to 2017. This paper employs cross-sectional dependence with heterogeneous panel estimation techniques. The data confirms cross-sectional dependence, and the CIPS panel unit root test shows that the variables are stationary at their first differences. The Westerlund panel cointegration test affirms a long-run relationship among the variables. Tourism and trade openness have significant positive effects on CO2 emissions while economic growth and energy consumption adversely affect CO2 emissions in the long-run. The panel non-causality test reveals that there is a one-way causality running from tourism to CO2 emissions and economic growth to CO2 emissions.
... led to the completion of the thesis. I also owe a debt of gratitude to other members of the t... more ... led to the completion of the thesis. I also owe a debt of gratitude to other members of the thesis committee, Professor Anthony Chin and Dr Gamini Prenaretne who also offered ... parents. I also thank my father-in-law, Jeyaseelan, brothers and sisters, and my brothers-...
The IUP Journal of Applied Finance, 2019
Despite Sri Lanka has achieved impressive results in human development indicators over the decade... more Despite Sri Lanka has achieved impressive results in human development indicators over the decades, continuously it has encountered difficulties in its battle against poverty. Since the independence, the country has recovered significantly, mainly through the implementation of various social assistant programmes. However, the poverty in Sri Lanka is still widespread and acute, and is generally a rural phenomenon. Poverty reduction has been slow due to widening inequalities among income groups and across regions, and because growth is concentrated in Western Province. Sri Lanka has a long history of social programs and of food subsidies in particular. Like many other countries, the government of Sri Lanka has a number of social assistance and poverty alleviation programs. The largest one of these is the samurdhi program which was introduced in 1995. The main objective of Samurdhi is to ensure the participation of the poor in the production process by increasing access to resources fo...
The IUP Journal of Applied Finance, 2019
Many studies have examined the determinants of ethnic conflicts in multi-ethnic developing countr... more Many studies have examined the determinants of ethnic conflicts in multi-ethnic developing countries and report on myriad contributory factors including economic, political, and cultural issues. It is natural to observe many correlates because ethnic wars tend to gain their own momentum and proceed for a variety of reasons that are not directly related to the initial causes. Some interventions are necessary to end an ethnic war. The objective of this paper is to draw attention to the conditions necessary to sustain ethnic peace. Good governance, high and shared growth often top the list of conditions necessary to achieve ethnic peace. How to get good governance in developing countries is a key question. Longing for an enlightened leader to emerge and set everything right is utopian. In this exercise it is argued that openness to foreign trade and investment is an essential precondition in achieving good governance and high growth. Openness acts as a disciplining force on governments...
Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development Journal
In the present paper, the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on income inequality ... more In the present paper, the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on income inequality in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies is investigated by using annual data for the period 1990-2015. The variables used are the Gini coefficient, FDI inflows, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, trade openness and human capital. Also, panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and panel heterogeneous non-causality tests are used in this study. The panel ARDL results suggest that, in the long run, FDI inflows decrease income inequality. This supports the argument that encouraging FDI inflows does not harm the distribution of income in APEC economies. The results also confirm that GDP per capita and trade openness help reduce income inequality while human capital widens income inequality. The results from this study suggest that APEC authorities could implement sound policies to attract more FDI, as evidence indicates that those inflows would narrow income inequality in APEC economies.
Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 2015
ABSTRACT Twin deficits hypothesis postulates that there is a strong positive linear relationship ... more ABSTRACT Twin deficits hypothesis postulates that there is a strong positive linear relationship between a country’s budget deficit and its current account deficit. This paper empirically investigates the existence of this relationship in five South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries using time-series data for the period 1980�2012. The paper uses cointegration analysis, error correction modeling and Granger causality test under a vector autoregression framework. The results show that the direction of causality for the SAARC countries is mixed. The findings confirm that budget deficit causes current account deficit for Pakistan and Sri Lanka, whereas the reverse is true for India and Nepal. The direction of causality is found to be unidirectional from current account deficit to budget deficit in the short run for Bangladesh.
South Asia Economic Journal, 2014
ABSTRACT An openness-led growth hypothesis investigates the causal relationship between trade ope... more ABSTRACT An openness-led growth hypothesis investigates the causal relationship between trade openness 1 and economic growth. Indeed, trade openness can stimulate economic growth by enhancing the international flow of knowledge and innovation and by allowing economies of specialization, not only in the production of goods, but also in the generation of new knowledge and new inputs into production. The purpose of this article is to empirically examine an openness-led growth hypoth-esis, using the case of Sri Lanka for the period from 1965 to 2012. The article uses the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test for cointegration developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). The empirical results confirm the validity of the openness-led growth hypothesis for Sri Lanka. JEL: C32, F20, F41, O11
South Asia Economic Journal, Feb 4, 2016
The export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis suggests that there is a strong positive linear relationsh... more The export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis suggests that there is a strong positive linear relationship between a country’s exports and economic growth. For many years, theoretical and empirical studies have examined the causal relationship between exports and economic growth and found that this relationship is one of interdependence rather than of unilateral causation. The purpose of this article is to empirically re-examine the ELG hypothesis in the context of two small South Asian countries: Bangladesh for the period of 1980–2011 and Sri Lanka for the period of 1984–2011. Using a model that controls for a host of domestic and international factors, this article tests the ELG hypothesis by employing the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test for cointegration and the Granger causality tests. The empirical results confirm the validity of the ELG hypothesis for both Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
International journal for innovation education and research, Aug 31, 2016
The impact of fiscal deficit on economic growth is one of the most widely debated issues among ec... more The impact of fiscal deficit on economic growth is one of the most widely debated issues among economists and policy makers in both developed and developing countries in the recent period. This paper seeks to examine the impact of fiscal deficit on economic growth in selected South Asian countries, namely, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka using time series annual data over the period 1980 to 2014. The paper uses cointegration analysis, error correction modelling and Granger causality test under a Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework. The results from this study confirmed that the fiscal deficit has a negative impact on economic growth in the South Asian countries considered in this study except Nepal, which confirmed the positive impact. The results also highlighted that the direction of causality for the SAARC countries is mixed where fiscal deficit causes economic growth for Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan, but the reverse is true for India and Sri Lanka.
Empirical Economics, Oct 13, 2018
The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect predicts that an exogenous adverse shock to terms of t... more The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect predicts that an exogenous adverse shock to terms of trade of a small economy leads to deterioration in its current account balance, and conversely. Most countries across the globe, large or small, have adopted trade liberalization for economic prosperity, which make the terms of trade of much importance for policy making. In this paper, we examine the validity of the HLM effect for five of the eight members of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation-a South Asian regional intergovernmental organization-over the period 1980-2015. Despite the potential for benefit from trade, the area remains understudied. We apply the cointegration and the Granger (non-) causality tests by employing both time series and panel methods. For a long-run equilibrium relationship, we implement the bounds testing approach, complemented by panel cointegration tests. For causality, in addition to testing for heterogeneous panels, we apply the conventional vector error correction model. We find support for the HLM effect for Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, but not India, the largest economy, conforming to the HLM prediction. The findings should help policymakers in assessing opportunities and challenges caused by exogenous shock from continued globalization and help to stay better prepared to address them.
International Journal of Accounting and Business Finance
Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy
Twin deficits hypothesis postulates that there is a strong positive linear relationship between a ... more Twin deficits hypothesis postulates that there is a strong positive linear relationship between a country’s budget deficit and its current account deficit. This paper empirically investigates the existence of this relationship in five South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries using time-series data for the period 1980 - 2012. The paper uses cointegration analysis, error correction modeling and Granger causality test under a vector autoregression framework. The results show that the direction of causality for the SAARC countries is mixed. The findings confirm that budget deficit causes current account deficit for Pakistan and Sri Lanka, whereas the reverse is true for India and Nepal. The direction of causality is found to be unidirectional from current account deficit to budget deficit in the short run for Bangladesh.
An International Journal of Tourism and Hospitality (Anatolia), 2022
The paper investigates the relationship between tourism, energy consumption, trade openness, econ... more The paper investigates the relationship between tourism, energy consumption, trade openness, economic growth, and CO2 emissions for 20 economies of the APEC region from 1995 to 2017. This paper employs cross-sectional dependence with heterogeneous panel estimation techniques. The data confirms cross-sectional dependence, and the CIPS panel unit root test shows that the variables are stationary at their first differences. The Westerlund panel cointegration test affirms a long-run relationship among the variables. Tourism and trade openness have significant positive effects on CO2 emissions while economic growth and energy consumption adversely affect CO2 emissions in the long-run. The panel non-causality test reveals that there is a one-way causality running from tourism to CO2 emissions and economic growth to CO2 emissions.
... led to the completion of the thesis. I also owe a debt of gratitude to other members of the t... more ... led to the completion of the thesis. I also owe a debt of gratitude to other members of the thesis committee, Professor Anthony Chin and Dr Gamini Prenaretne who also offered ... parents. I also thank my father-in-law, Jeyaseelan, brothers and sisters, and my brothers-...
The IUP Journal of Applied Finance, 2019
Despite Sri Lanka has achieved impressive results in human development indicators over the decade... more Despite Sri Lanka has achieved impressive results in human development indicators over the decades, continuously it has encountered difficulties in its battle against poverty. Since the independence, the country has recovered significantly, mainly through the implementation of various social assistant programmes. However, the poverty in Sri Lanka is still widespread and acute, and is generally a rural phenomenon. Poverty reduction has been slow due to widening inequalities among income groups and across regions, and because growth is concentrated in Western Province. Sri Lanka has a long history of social programs and of food subsidies in particular. Like many other countries, the government of Sri Lanka has a number of social assistance and poverty alleviation programs. The largest one of these is the samurdhi program which was introduced in 1995. The main objective of Samurdhi is to ensure the participation of the poor in the production process by increasing access to resources fo...
The IUP Journal of Applied Finance, 2019
Many studies have examined the determinants of ethnic conflicts in multi-ethnic developing countr... more Many studies have examined the determinants of ethnic conflicts in multi-ethnic developing countries and report on myriad contributory factors including economic, political, and cultural issues. It is natural to observe many correlates because ethnic wars tend to gain their own momentum and proceed for a variety of reasons that are not directly related to the initial causes. Some interventions are necessary to end an ethnic war. The objective of this paper is to draw attention to the conditions necessary to sustain ethnic peace. Good governance, high and shared growth often top the list of conditions necessary to achieve ethnic peace. How to get good governance in developing countries is a key question. Longing for an enlightened leader to emerge and set everything right is utopian. In this exercise it is argued that openness to foreign trade and investment is an essential precondition in achieving good governance and high growth. Openness acts as a disciplining force on governments...
Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development Journal
In the present paper, the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on income inequality ... more In the present paper, the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on income inequality in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies is investigated by using annual data for the period 1990-2015. The variables used are the Gini coefficient, FDI inflows, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, trade openness and human capital. Also, panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and panel heterogeneous non-causality tests are used in this study. The panel ARDL results suggest that, in the long run, FDI inflows decrease income inequality. This supports the argument that encouraging FDI inflows does not harm the distribution of income in APEC economies. The results also confirm that GDP per capita and trade openness help reduce income inequality while human capital widens income inequality. The results from this study suggest that APEC authorities could implement sound policies to attract more FDI, as evidence indicates that those inflows would narrow income inequality in APEC economies.
Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 2015
ABSTRACT Twin deficits hypothesis postulates that there is a strong positive linear relationship ... more ABSTRACT Twin deficits hypothesis postulates that there is a strong positive linear relationship between a country’s budget deficit and its current account deficit. This paper empirically investigates the existence of this relationship in five South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries using time-series data for the period 1980�2012. The paper uses cointegration analysis, error correction modeling and Granger causality test under a vector autoregression framework. The results show that the direction of causality for the SAARC countries is mixed. The findings confirm that budget deficit causes current account deficit for Pakistan and Sri Lanka, whereas the reverse is true for India and Nepal. The direction of causality is found to be unidirectional from current account deficit to budget deficit in the short run for Bangladesh.
South Asia Economic Journal, 2014
ABSTRACT An openness-led growth hypothesis investigates the causal relationship between trade ope... more ABSTRACT An openness-led growth hypothesis investigates the causal relationship between trade openness 1 and economic growth. Indeed, trade openness can stimulate economic growth by enhancing the international flow of knowledge and innovation and by allowing economies of specialization, not only in the production of goods, but also in the generation of new knowledge and new inputs into production. The purpose of this article is to empirically examine an openness-led growth hypoth-esis, using the case of Sri Lanka for the period from 1965 to 2012. The article uses the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test for cointegration developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). The empirical results confirm the validity of the openness-led growth hypothesis for Sri Lanka. JEL: C32, F20, F41, O11