Nurlan Aliyev | University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw (original) (raw)

Papers by Nurlan Aliyev

War on the Rocks , 2025

Russia wields a formidable capability to target NATO's undersea infrastructure in critical region... more Russia wields a formidable capability to target NATO's undersea infrastructure in critical regions such as the Baltic, Barents, and North Seas, as well as across the world's oceans: its "research" vessels. These are ostensibly civilian ships used for scientific exploration that double as intelligence-gathering platforms. Equipped with advanced surveillance technology, these ships often operate near critical undersea infrastructure, raising concerns about covert espionage and sabotage capabilities under the guise of academic study. Though this threat is making headlines in Europe today, it is far from new.

Baku Research Institute, 2024

After the invasion of Ukraine in 2020, the INSTC is as important for the Russian economy as the R... more After the invasion of Ukraine in 2020, the INSTC is as important for the Russian economy as the Road of Life was for besieged Leningrad during WWII. Currently, among other problems, Moscow faces a lack of financial resources for the development of the transport project. In this respect, investments by participant countries such as Azerbaijan help Moscow to achieve access to markets of the Gulf countries, India and Africa through routes outside western control. Additionally, a transportation corridor through the former Soviet republics may help strengthen Russia’s presence in Central Asia and the South Caucasus where Moscow faces adversaries. This paper explores Moscow’s interests, expectations, challenges and benefits in the International North–South Transport Corridor.

Routledge eBooks, Oct 24, 2023

Routledge eBooks, Oct 24, 2023

Routledge eBooks, Oct 24, 2023

Routledge eBooks, Oct 24, 2023

CBEES State of the Region Report 2024, 2024

This chapter sheds light on the direct and indirect impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Aze... more This chapter sheds light on the direct and indirect impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Azerbaijan. It provides insights about the consequences so far of the war on the socio-economic situation and analyzes how the invasion has afected the security context and balance of power both regionally and in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy.

Baltic Worlds, 2023

The aim of this essay is to explore the cultural, educational or so-called soft power influence o... more The aim of this essay is to explore the cultural, educational or so-called soft power influence of Russia and China in Azerbaijan. The essay analyzes the state and perspectives on the influence of Chinese and Russian soft power in the South Caucasus, focusing on Azerbaijan. It discusses the current situation and tries to put the soft power influence of Russia and China into perspective. It zooms in on the Azerbaijani case, because, contrary to other South Caucasus governments, the Azerbaijani leadership is trying to find a balance between the involvement of both the regional powers and the great powers by maintaining a virtually equal political distance from the West and from Russia and China.

Riddle Russia, 2024

As ever, the South Caucasus remains a vital geopolitical and economic intersection point between ... more As ever, the South Caucasus remains a vital geopolitical and economic intersection point between Russia, Iran and Türkiye. The ruptures caused by military clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan in recent years, as well as the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are not the only major and complex changes unfolding across the region. Indeed, while many processes in the international system are clearly currently refracting through the geopolitics of the South Caucasus, there are also several distinctly regional processes underway. The paper argues that Russia has not left and is not going anywhere anytime soon; Türkiye’s influence is increasing, especially over Azerbaijan and Georgia to a lesser extent; there are no changes in Iranian involvement, although its relations with Armenia are increasing; despite recent diplomatic intentions by the West over the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, there do not seem to be essential changes in the US or the EU’s involvement since the end of the 2010s; and China has vital economic cooperation with the region, although there are no indications of Beijing’s involvements in the security issues of the South Caucasus. The most visible trend in the region is the support of Moscow, Ankara, and Tehran for the regionalization of international relations to challenge the West’s strategic involvement in the South Caucasus. Another historical trend is the maneuvering of the region’s three countries to balance between regional and great powers given their current level of influence on Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.

ISPI, 2024

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine burdens the Russian economy, including its Arctic projects. The proj... more Russia’s invasion of Ukraine burdens the Russian economy, including its Arctic projects. The projects' targets have already been postponed. In this respect, a question arises whether Moscow may achieve its geoeconomic goals in the Arctic by increasing energy production, especially LNG, increasing the cargo volume in the Northern Sea Route, and building the required icebreakers and ice-class vessels.
Although Moscow tries to attract investments and increase joint projects of Asian and the Gulf countries, the Western sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine heavily challenge the developments of the Russian Arctic projects. In this respect, the thought that Russia’s contemporary foreign policy behavior challenges its economic projects and that the security and economic values of the Arctic are a dilemma for the Kremlin once again is approved. One of the research findings is that although Western sanctions block or at least slow down Moscow’s economic projects in the Arctic, Russia tries to increasingly use schemes to circumvent sanctions and steal technologies required for the Arctic energy and transport projects. Moreover, using small-scale land and sea-based nuclear power plants and extending the service of Soviet nuclear-powered icebreakers mean potential problems for the environment, which Moscow may also use as a form of blackmail.
However, Russia’s greatest ally in pushing forward with its Arctic energy projects will likely be the increasing global LNG demand by the 2040s and its role as a transition fuel in the coming years. When the war ends, Western companies may return to the projects. These possible developments also encourage Moscow to try to keep the projects going as much as possible. .
This report explores the current state of the Russian Arctic economic projects, their challenges, and their perspectives. It also analyses the involvement of the non-Arctic powers, such as China, in the Russian economic projects in the High North. The information and data from official documents and sources, media reports, discussions in professional groups on social media and telegram channels, and expert interviews (anonymous) are used.

Reassessing Russia's Security Policy

Riddle, 2022

Nurlan Aliyev looks into why Russia has so far proved unable to overwhelm Ukraine's cyber defence... more Nurlan Aliyev looks into why Russia has so far proved unable to overwhelm Ukraine's cyber defences https://ridl.io/cyber-operations-during-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine-in-2022/ Russia has been known as a capable actor in conducting a wide range of cyber espionage and sabotage operations since the 1990s. Russia also conducted several cyber-attacks on Ukraine before the invasion in 2022. One of the most sophisticated operations was blacking out Kyiv in 2016. At midnight, a week before Christmas, hackers struck an electric transmission station north of the city of Kyiv, blacking out a portion of the Ukrainian capital equivalent to a fifth of its total power capacity. According to experts, it was the first real-world malware that attacked physical infrastructure since Stuxnet.

Stosunki Międzynarodowe – International Relations

Background: This paper aims to explore current and perspective trends of relations between Russia... more Background: This paper aims to explore current and perspective trends of relations between Russia and China in Afghanistan and Central Asia. It also analyzes whether the withdrawal of the U.S. and the subsequent Taliban takeover helped—and continues to help—strengthen the two powers' positions in the region and what kind of challenges and benefits they face. The paper examines the hypothesis that the U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban's return to power added to Russia and China's benefits in the region. Methods: The research uses content analysis regarding official documents, political and military elite speeches, interviews, and reports to explain Russia and China’s official positions and policies regarding Afghanistan and Central Asia. Relations between the two powers as regards Afghanistan and Central Asia are comparatively analyzed. The paper uses the neorealist approach, which is fit for explaining relations between Russia and China in Afghanist...

PONARS Eurasia, 2022

For decades, Russian military experts and political elite have suggested that Russia should use a... more For decades, Russian military experts and political elite have suggested that Russia should use asymmetric means and strategies in response to threats and challenges, especially from the West. Moscow now faces asymmetric strategic approaches directed against itself—a first since its own Afghanistan and Chechnya conflicts. Analyzed here are the disproportionate approaches used by Ukraine in the first phase of this year’s war. Although many factors such as Western support have been important for Ukraine’s defense, the tenacity, cohesion, and will of the Ukrainian citizens and soldiers have obstructed the invaders—particularly during the first shocking and precarious days of the heavily lop-sided contest.

PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo , 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has affected its economic and military projects in the High North, w... more Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has affected its economic and military projects in the High North, where, not long ago, the Kremlin was touting the benefits of increased North Sea Route (NSR) trade due to melting Arctic ice.
Russia’s application of deep resources toward its Ukrainian war while under sanctions and with a deteriorating economy has diminished its Arctic undertakings and its northern fleet’s capabilities and prospects. For the most part, the fleet has always been envisaged as dual-use—civilian/economic and military—which may help it weather its current operational and boatbuilding problems. Even so, the outlook is grim, as Moscow policymakers focus on the war and its associated domestic and international tribulations.

The Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 2020

Wydawnictwo Naukowe Scholar Sp. z o.o., 2018

Military thought and military issues traditionally played an important role in Russia’s history. ... more Military thought and military issues traditionally played an important role in Russia’s history. Even economic, political, social and educational reforms were mainly triggered by the needs related to military issues – preparation for wars or unsuccessful military campaigns of the Russian Empire (between the 17th and 19th centuries against Poland and Ottoman Turks and in the 20th century by Russia’s defeat in the war against Japan). It should be noted that the reforms during the reigns of Peter the Great and Catherine II and also in the 19th century, were introduced under military and external security challenges. In this regard, after the seizure of power, despite their tremendous critics on Tsarist government militarization policies, Bolsheviks hugely relied on military power too. The military affairs were doctrinalized during the Bolsheviks rule for the first time in Russian history.This paper analyzes the military thought in the Russian Empire in the end of the 19th century and its transformation during the first years of Soviet rule in the early 20th century. It also studies discussions among the Soviet political and military elite on theoretical and practical facets of the military and methods of waging war in 1920s as well as explores the creation of the Russian non-linear warfare theory, the only warfare concept of the Soviet Union which is recognized worldwide. The paper concludes that the thought dating back to those periods is also used in contemporary Russia.

Problems of Post-Communism, 2019

ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the Russian political elite’s security thinking and, through compari... more ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the Russian political elite’s security thinking and, through comparison of the similarities and differences between Soviet-era and current elite security thinking, how it has been influenced by historical experience, Russian domestic politics, and trends of the international system. The paper also attempts to analyze the influence of the political elite’s security thinking on general public threat perception. The article argues that prospective Russian political elite external security attitudes are influenced by continuing threat perceptions based on past experiences in Russian history and Russia’s perceived weaknesses, which fuel fears triggered by domestic, political, and socio-economic conditions.

Sprawy Międzynarodowe, 2021

This paper aims to analyse Russia’s policy towards the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan du... more This paper aims to analyse Russia’s policy towards the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan during the second Karabakh war and its aftermath. The aim is to explain Russia’s behaviour’s maxims during and after the second Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Analysing reasons and causes of Moscow’s approaches in relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan, this paper argues that developments in the Russian policy could be mainly explained by Russia’s current and prospective economic and strategic interests in the region and, they are based on Russia’s slowly departs from the legacies and responsibilities are most important thinking towards purely pragmatic and highly manoeuvrable approaches.

Sprawy Międzynarodowe, 2021

This paper aims to analyse Russia’s policy towards the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan du... more This paper aims to analyse Russia’s policy towards the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan during the second Karabakh war and its aftermath. The aim is to explain Russia’s behaviour’s maxims during and after the second Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Analysing reasons and causes of Moscow’s approaches in relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan, this paper argues that developments in the Russian policy could be mainly explained by Russia’s current and prospective economic and strategic interests in the region and, they are based on Russia’s slowly departs from the legacies and responsibilities are most important thinking towards purely pragmatic and highly manoeuvrable approaches.

War on the Rocks , 2025

Russia wields a formidable capability to target NATO's undersea infrastructure in critical region... more Russia wields a formidable capability to target NATO's undersea infrastructure in critical regions such as the Baltic, Barents, and North Seas, as well as across the world's oceans: its "research" vessels. These are ostensibly civilian ships used for scientific exploration that double as intelligence-gathering platforms. Equipped with advanced surveillance technology, these ships often operate near critical undersea infrastructure, raising concerns about covert espionage and sabotage capabilities under the guise of academic study. Though this threat is making headlines in Europe today, it is far from new.

Baku Research Institute, 2024

After the invasion of Ukraine in 2020, the INSTC is as important for the Russian economy as the R... more After the invasion of Ukraine in 2020, the INSTC is as important for the Russian economy as the Road of Life was for besieged Leningrad during WWII. Currently, among other problems, Moscow faces a lack of financial resources for the development of the transport project. In this respect, investments by participant countries such as Azerbaijan help Moscow to achieve access to markets of the Gulf countries, India and Africa through routes outside western control. Additionally, a transportation corridor through the former Soviet republics may help strengthen Russia’s presence in Central Asia and the South Caucasus where Moscow faces adversaries. This paper explores Moscow’s interests, expectations, challenges and benefits in the International North–South Transport Corridor.

Routledge eBooks, Oct 24, 2023

Routledge eBooks, Oct 24, 2023

Routledge eBooks, Oct 24, 2023

Routledge eBooks, Oct 24, 2023

CBEES State of the Region Report 2024, 2024

This chapter sheds light on the direct and indirect impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Aze... more This chapter sheds light on the direct and indirect impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Azerbaijan. It provides insights about the consequences so far of the war on the socio-economic situation and analyzes how the invasion has afected the security context and balance of power both regionally and in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy.

Baltic Worlds, 2023

The aim of this essay is to explore the cultural, educational or so-called soft power influence o... more The aim of this essay is to explore the cultural, educational or so-called soft power influence of Russia and China in Azerbaijan. The essay analyzes the state and perspectives on the influence of Chinese and Russian soft power in the South Caucasus, focusing on Azerbaijan. It discusses the current situation and tries to put the soft power influence of Russia and China into perspective. It zooms in on the Azerbaijani case, because, contrary to other South Caucasus governments, the Azerbaijani leadership is trying to find a balance between the involvement of both the regional powers and the great powers by maintaining a virtually equal political distance from the West and from Russia and China.

Riddle Russia, 2024

As ever, the South Caucasus remains a vital geopolitical and economic intersection point between ... more As ever, the South Caucasus remains a vital geopolitical and economic intersection point between Russia, Iran and Türkiye. The ruptures caused by military clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan in recent years, as well as the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are not the only major and complex changes unfolding across the region. Indeed, while many processes in the international system are clearly currently refracting through the geopolitics of the South Caucasus, there are also several distinctly regional processes underway. The paper argues that Russia has not left and is not going anywhere anytime soon; Türkiye’s influence is increasing, especially over Azerbaijan and Georgia to a lesser extent; there are no changes in Iranian involvement, although its relations with Armenia are increasing; despite recent diplomatic intentions by the West over the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, there do not seem to be essential changes in the US or the EU’s involvement since the end of the 2010s; and China has vital economic cooperation with the region, although there are no indications of Beijing’s involvements in the security issues of the South Caucasus. The most visible trend in the region is the support of Moscow, Ankara, and Tehran for the regionalization of international relations to challenge the West’s strategic involvement in the South Caucasus. Another historical trend is the maneuvering of the region’s three countries to balance between regional and great powers given their current level of influence on Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.

ISPI, 2024

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine burdens the Russian economy, including its Arctic projects. The proj... more Russia’s invasion of Ukraine burdens the Russian economy, including its Arctic projects. The projects' targets have already been postponed. In this respect, a question arises whether Moscow may achieve its geoeconomic goals in the Arctic by increasing energy production, especially LNG, increasing the cargo volume in the Northern Sea Route, and building the required icebreakers and ice-class vessels.
Although Moscow tries to attract investments and increase joint projects of Asian and the Gulf countries, the Western sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine heavily challenge the developments of the Russian Arctic projects. In this respect, the thought that Russia’s contemporary foreign policy behavior challenges its economic projects and that the security and economic values of the Arctic are a dilemma for the Kremlin once again is approved. One of the research findings is that although Western sanctions block or at least slow down Moscow’s economic projects in the Arctic, Russia tries to increasingly use schemes to circumvent sanctions and steal technologies required for the Arctic energy and transport projects. Moreover, using small-scale land and sea-based nuclear power plants and extending the service of Soviet nuclear-powered icebreakers mean potential problems for the environment, which Moscow may also use as a form of blackmail.
However, Russia’s greatest ally in pushing forward with its Arctic energy projects will likely be the increasing global LNG demand by the 2040s and its role as a transition fuel in the coming years. When the war ends, Western companies may return to the projects. These possible developments also encourage Moscow to try to keep the projects going as much as possible. .
This report explores the current state of the Russian Arctic economic projects, their challenges, and their perspectives. It also analyses the involvement of the non-Arctic powers, such as China, in the Russian economic projects in the High North. The information and data from official documents and sources, media reports, discussions in professional groups on social media and telegram channels, and expert interviews (anonymous) are used.

Reassessing Russia's Security Policy

Riddle, 2022

Nurlan Aliyev looks into why Russia has so far proved unable to overwhelm Ukraine's cyber defence... more Nurlan Aliyev looks into why Russia has so far proved unable to overwhelm Ukraine's cyber defences https://ridl.io/cyber-operations-during-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine-in-2022/ Russia has been known as a capable actor in conducting a wide range of cyber espionage and sabotage operations since the 1990s. Russia also conducted several cyber-attacks on Ukraine before the invasion in 2022. One of the most sophisticated operations was blacking out Kyiv in 2016. At midnight, a week before Christmas, hackers struck an electric transmission station north of the city of Kyiv, blacking out a portion of the Ukrainian capital equivalent to a fifth of its total power capacity. According to experts, it was the first real-world malware that attacked physical infrastructure since Stuxnet.

Stosunki Międzynarodowe – International Relations

Background: This paper aims to explore current and perspective trends of relations between Russia... more Background: This paper aims to explore current and perspective trends of relations between Russia and China in Afghanistan and Central Asia. It also analyzes whether the withdrawal of the U.S. and the subsequent Taliban takeover helped—and continues to help—strengthen the two powers' positions in the region and what kind of challenges and benefits they face. The paper examines the hypothesis that the U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban's return to power added to Russia and China's benefits in the region. Methods: The research uses content analysis regarding official documents, political and military elite speeches, interviews, and reports to explain Russia and China’s official positions and policies regarding Afghanistan and Central Asia. Relations between the two powers as regards Afghanistan and Central Asia are comparatively analyzed. The paper uses the neorealist approach, which is fit for explaining relations between Russia and China in Afghanist...

PONARS Eurasia, 2022

For decades, Russian military experts and political elite have suggested that Russia should use a... more For decades, Russian military experts and political elite have suggested that Russia should use asymmetric means and strategies in response to threats and challenges, especially from the West. Moscow now faces asymmetric strategic approaches directed against itself—a first since its own Afghanistan and Chechnya conflicts. Analyzed here are the disproportionate approaches used by Ukraine in the first phase of this year’s war. Although many factors such as Western support have been important for Ukraine’s defense, the tenacity, cohesion, and will of the Ukrainian citizens and soldiers have obstructed the invaders—particularly during the first shocking and precarious days of the heavily lop-sided contest.

PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo , 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has affected its economic and military projects in the High North, w... more Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has affected its economic and military projects in the High North, where, not long ago, the Kremlin was touting the benefits of increased North Sea Route (NSR) trade due to melting Arctic ice.
Russia’s application of deep resources toward its Ukrainian war while under sanctions and with a deteriorating economy has diminished its Arctic undertakings and its northern fleet’s capabilities and prospects. For the most part, the fleet has always been envisaged as dual-use—civilian/economic and military—which may help it weather its current operational and boatbuilding problems. Even so, the outlook is grim, as Moscow policymakers focus on the war and its associated domestic and international tribulations.

The Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 2020

Wydawnictwo Naukowe Scholar Sp. z o.o., 2018

Military thought and military issues traditionally played an important role in Russia’s history. ... more Military thought and military issues traditionally played an important role in Russia’s history. Even economic, political, social and educational reforms were mainly triggered by the needs related to military issues – preparation for wars or unsuccessful military campaigns of the Russian Empire (between the 17th and 19th centuries against Poland and Ottoman Turks and in the 20th century by Russia’s defeat in the war against Japan). It should be noted that the reforms during the reigns of Peter the Great and Catherine II and also in the 19th century, were introduced under military and external security challenges. In this regard, after the seizure of power, despite their tremendous critics on Tsarist government militarization policies, Bolsheviks hugely relied on military power too. The military affairs were doctrinalized during the Bolsheviks rule for the first time in Russian history.This paper analyzes the military thought in the Russian Empire in the end of the 19th century and its transformation during the first years of Soviet rule in the early 20th century. It also studies discussions among the Soviet political and military elite on theoretical and practical facets of the military and methods of waging war in 1920s as well as explores the creation of the Russian non-linear warfare theory, the only warfare concept of the Soviet Union which is recognized worldwide. The paper concludes that the thought dating back to those periods is also used in contemporary Russia.

Problems of Post-Communism, 2019

ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the Russian political elite’s security thinking and, through compari... more ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the Russian political elite’s security thinking and, through comparison of the similarities and differences between Soviet-era and current elite security thinking, how it has been influenced by historical experience, Russian domestic politics, and trends of the international system. The paper also attempts to analyze the influence of the political elite’s security thinking on general public threat perception. The article argues that prospective Russian political elite external security attitudes are influenced by continuing threat perceptions based on past experiences in Russian history and Russia’s perceived weaknesses, which fuel fears triggered by domestic, political, and socio-economic conditions.

Sprawy Międzynarodowe, 2021

This paper aims to analyse Russia’s policy towards the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan du... more This paper aims to analyse Russia’s policy towards the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan during the second Karabakh war and its aftermath. The aim is to explain Russia’s behaviour’s maxims during and after the second Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Analysing reasons and causes of Moscow’s approaches in relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan, this paper argues that developments in the Russian policy could be mainly explained by Russia’s current and prospective economic and strategic interests in the region and, they are based on Russia’s slowly departs from the legacies and responsibilities are most important thinking towards purely pragmatic and highly manoeuvrable approaches.

Sprawy Międzynarodowe, 2021

This paper aims to analyse Russia’s policy towards the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan du... more This paper aims to analyse Russia’s policy towards the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan during the second Karabakh war and its aftermath. The aim is to explain Russia’s behaviour’s maxims during and after the second Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Analysing reasons and causes of Moscow’s approaches in relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan, this paper argues that developments in the Russian policy could be mainly explained by Russia’s current and prospective economic and strategic interests in the region and, they are based on Russia’s slowly departs from the legacies and responsibilities are most important thinking towards purely pragmatic and highly manoeuvrable approaches.