Marjan Hofkes | Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (original) (raw)

Papers by Marjan Hofkes

Research paper thumbnail of De Nederlandse zoektocht naar een groen BNP

Research paper thumbnail of Modelling and computation of general equilibrium

Research paper thumbnail of Short Term Versus Long Term Effects

This paper analyses a model in which both economic and ecological relationships as well as all th... more This paper analyses a model in which both economic and ecological relationships as well as all the interactions between the two are fully specified. It compares the short term and the long term effects of shocks in environmental policies. It appears that short run effects may differ substantially from long run effects, with respect to both levels and growth rates of various variables. Though in the short run growth optimists may be right, in the long run there appears to be, under the chosen specification, a trade-off between economic growth and environmental quality.

Research paper thumbnail of A Vintage of Model Technology Diffusion: The Effect Returns to Diversity and Learning-by-Using

Research paper thumbnail of Eindrapport evaluatie nota milieu en economie

Research paper thumbnail of Duurzame ontwikkeling en arbeidsmarkt

Research paper thumbnail of Milieubeleid voor een Mierenhoop

Research paper thumbnail of Duurzaam nationaal inkomen

Research paper thumbnail of Economic Models of Sustainable Development

Handbook of Environmental and Resource Economics

Research paper thumbnail of Van groene welvaartsmaten tot een nationale maatschappelijke kosten-batenanalyse

Research paper thumbnail of The Great North Sea Flood of 1953, The Deltaworks and the spatial distribution of people

Large shocks, such as natural disasters, are often found to have little or no effect on the equil... more Large shocks, such as natural disasters, are often found to have little or no effect on the equilibrium distribution of economic activity across space. Two apparently competing theoretical explanations for this phenomenon are the increasing returns theory and the locational fundamentals theory. This study investigates the population dynamics resulting from the flood that hit the Netherlands in 1953 and from the mitigation measures that followed it.A dynamic difference-indifferences analysis reveals that the flood had an immediate negative impact on population growth, but limited long term effects. The mitigation efforts, gathered under the Deltaworks Programme, are on the other hand found to have had positive effects that are persisting through time. Our results are consistent with both the theory of increasing returns and that of locational fundamentals. The results also suggest that the combined long term effect of the flood in 1953 and the mitigation measures that followed was an increased concentration of population in vulnerable area.

Research paper thumbnail of Milieubeleid tussen generaties

Research paper thumbnail of The Effect of Risk Context on the Value of a Statistical Life: a Bayesian Meta-model

Environmental and Resource Economics, 2011

This paper presents the first value of statistical life (VSL) meta-analysis that empirically esti... more This paper presents the first value of statistical life (VSL) meta-analysis that empirically estimates correction factors for 'out of context' benefits transfer (BT) purposes. In the field of mortality risk reductions elicited willingness to pay values in one risk context, say road safety, are frequently applied in other risk contexts like air pollution. However, differences in risk perception and the population at risk across contexts are likely to result in diverging VSL estimates. In a meta-analysis of 26 international stated preference studies, a Bayesian model is estimated regressing contingent values for mortality risk reductions, originating from three different risk contexts, on the characteristics of the risk reduction itself and additional variables characterizing the underlying studies. A willingness to pay (WTP) premium for mortality risk reductions in the air pollution and general mortality risk context relative to improving road safety is observed. Evaluated at the mean, road safety VSL estimates should be multiplied by a factor 1.8 before being applicable in the air pollution context. Moreover, in an illustrative BT exercise we find limited overlap in the set of context specific predictive VSL distributions. Consequently, 'out of context' BT results in a substantial overor underestimation of the VSL. Keywords Value of statistical life • Meta-analysis • Bayesian estimation • Mortality • Risk context 1 Introduction Cost-effectiveness is usually an important reason to use previous research outcomes for new policy applications (Brouwer 2000). The fundamental problem underlying value transfers

Research paper thumbnail of Escaping Lock-in

This paper can be downloaded without charge at: The Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Note di Lavoro S... more This paper can be downloaded without charge at: The Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Note di Lavoro Series Index: http://www.feem. it/web/activ/_activ. html Social Science Research Network Electronic Paper Collection: http://papers'ssm'cm/abstract=XXXXXX Corso Magenta, 63, 20123 Milano, tel. +39/02/52036934 - fax +39/02/52036946 E-mail: letterfeem. it C.F. 97080600154 SUMMARY In this paper we develop a simple endogenous growth model with two competing production technologies and learning spillover effects between firms that use the same technology. Investments are directed to the technology with highest current and expected returns. Since current investments increase future returns through learning, the economy will usually lock in, that is specialise in one of the two technologies. In case the economy has selected a relative polluting technology, sustainable growth requires a transition towards the clean technology. We analyse the scope for (environmental) policies that induce such a transition

Research paper thumbnail of Active Learning about Climate Change

Abstract: We develop a climate-economy model with active learning. We consider three ways of acti... more Abstract: We develop a climate-economy model with active learning. We consider three ways of active learning: improved observations, adding observations from the past and improved theory from climate research. From the model, we find that the decision maker invests a significant amount of money in climate research. Expenditures to increase the rate of learning are far greater than the current level of expenditure on climate research, as it helps in taking improved decisions. The optimal carbon tax for the active learning model is nontrivially lower than that for the uncertainty model and the passive learning model. JEL classification: Q54

Research paper thumbnail of Economy-Ecology Integrated Model

This paper analyses ustainable development in an endogenous growth model which inte-grates a dyna... more This paper analyses ustainable development in an endogenous growth model which inte-grates a dynamic specification of both economic and ecological relations and all the interactions between the economy and the natural environment. It is common practice to solve growth models by looking at a balanced growth solution, which is often associated with sustainable development. We derive the conditions under which sustainable development is feasible and optimal. Finally, we discuss some comparative statics of the balanced growth solution and give a numerical example to illustrate the model and to provide further insight. JEL classification: O41; Q20; D60

Research paper thumbnail of Efficiency wage theory and general equilibrium

Serie Research Memoranda, 1990

Research paper thumbnail of Post-Kopenhagen (column)

Research paper thumbnail of Dynamiek van technologie-ontwikkeling : Innovatie, adoptie en diffusie

De laatste decennia laten een drastische toename van de uitstoot van broeikasgassen zien. Inmidde... more De laatste decennia laten een drastische toename van de uitstoot van broeikasgassen zien. Inmiddels wordt algemeen erkend dat het versterkte broeikaseffect in belangrijke mate door de mens wordt veroorzaakt. Het versterkte broeikaseffect zal naar verwachting leiden tot klimaatveranderingen, die overwegend als onwenselijk worden beschouwd. Om te komen tot een stabilisatie van broeikasgassen in de atmosfeer is een reductie van energieverbruik en daarmee gepaard gaande emissies vereist. Dit vraagt om beleid aangezien niet verwacht kan worden dat ‘de markt’ deze reductie tot stand zal brengen, gegeven onder meer het bestaan van afwentelingprocessen (‘externaliteiten’) en gebrek aan prijsprikkels (‘ongeprijsde schaarste’). Om te komen tot een reductie van energieverbruik en daarmee gepaard gaande emissies zijn er in principe drie mogelijkheden. De eerste optie is minder produceren en een lagere economische groei accepteren. De tweede optie is het wijzigen van de samenstelling van ons con...

Research paper thumbnail of On the exclusion from the use of a public good and pareto optimality

Serie Research Memoranda, 1987

In this paper we analyse whether it is Pareto Optimal to exclude individuals from using a non-pur... more In this paper we analyse whether it is Pareto Optimal to exclude individuals from using a non-pure public good. It turns out that maximum Social Welfare is attained either when everybody is allowed to use the public good or when just one individual is allowed to use it, depending upon the Social Welfare function. These Social Welfare Optima are also Pareto Optimal allocations. Whenever restrictions are made with respect to equal consumption plans for all users and equal consumption plans for all nonusers so-called Restricted Pareto Optima can be attained for every number of users. These Restricted Pareto Optima are not always also unrestricted Pareto Optima.

Research paper thumbnail of De Nederlandse zoektocht naar een groen BNP

Research paper thumbnail of Modelling and computation of general equilibrium

Research paper thumbnail of Short Term Versus Long Term Effects

This paper analyses a model in which both economic and ecological relationships as well as all th... more This paper analyses a model in which both economic and ecological relationships as well as all the interactions between the two are fully specified. It compares the short term and the long term effects of shocks in environmental policies. It appears that short run effects may differ substantially from long run effects, with respect to both levels and growth rates of various variables. Though in the short run growth optimists may be right, in the long run there appears to be, under the chosen specification, a trade-off between economic growth and environmental quality.

Research paper thumbnail of A Vintage of Model Technology Diffusion: The Effect Returns to Diversity and Learning-by-Using

Research paper thumbnail of Eindrapport evaluatie nota milieu en economie

Research paper thumbnail of Duurzame ontwikkeling en arbeidsmarkt

Research paper thumbnail of Milieubeleid voor een Mierenhoop

Research paper thumbnail of Duurzaam nationaal inkomen

Research paper thumbnail of Economic Models of Sustainable Development

Handbook of Environmental and Resource Economics

Research paper thumbnail of Van groene welvaartsmaten tot een nationale maatschappelijke kosten-batenanalyse

Research paper thumbnail of The Great North Sea Flood of 1953, The Deltaworks and the spatial distribution of people

Large shocks, such as natural disasters, are often found to have little or no effect on the equil... more Large shocks, such as natural disasters, are often found to have little or no effect on the equilibrium distribution of economic activity across space. Two apparently competing theoretical explanations for this phenomenon are the increasing returns theory and the locational fundamentals theory. This study investigates the population dynamics resulting from the flood that hit the Netherlands in 1953 and from the mitigation measures that followed it.A dynamic difference-indifferences analysis reveals that the flood had an immediate negative impact on population growth, but limited long term effects. The mitigation efforts, gathered under the Deltaworks Programme, are on the other hand found to have had positive effects that are persisting through time. Our results are consistent with both the theory of increasing returns and that of locational fundamentals. The results also suggest that the combined long term effect of the flood in 1953 and the mitigation measures that followed was an increased concentration of population in vulnerable area.

Research paper thumbnail of Milieubeleid tussen generaties

Research paper thumbnail of The Effect of Risk Context on the Value of a Statistical Life: a Bayesian Meta-model

Environmental and Resource Economics, 2011

This paper presents the first value of statistical life (VSL) meta-analysis that empirically esti... more This paper presents the first value of statistical life (VSL) meta-analysis that empirically estimates correction factors for 'out of context' benefits transfer (BT) purposes. In the field of mortality risk reductions elicited willingness to pay values in one risk context, say road safety, are frequently applied in other risk contexts like air pollution. However, differences in risk perception and the population at risk across contexts are likely to result in diverging VSL estimates. In a meta-analysis of 26 international stated preference studies, a Bayesian model is estimated regressing contingent values for mortality risk reductions, originating from three different risk contexts, on the characteristics of the risk reduction itself and additional variables characterizing the underlying studies. A willingness to pay (WTP) premium for mortality risk reductions in the air pollution and general mortality risk context relative to improving road safety is observed. Evaluated at the mean, road safety VSL estimates should be multiplied by a factor 1.8 before being applicable in the air pollution context. Moreover, in an illustrative BT exercise we find limited overlap in the set of context specific predictive VSL distributions. Consequently, 'out of context' BT results in a substantial overor underestimation of the VSL. Keywords Value of statistical life • Meta-analysis • Bayesian estimation • Mortality • Risk context 1 Introduction Cost-effectiveness is usually an important reason to use previous research outcomes for new policy applications (Brouwer 2000). The fundamental problem underlying value transfers

Research paper thumbnail of Escaping Lock-in

This paper can be downloaded without charge at: The Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Note di Lavoro S... more This paper can be downloaded without charge at: The Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Note di Lavoro Series Index: http://www.feem. it/web/activ/_activ. html Social Science Research Network Electronic Paper Collection: http://papers'ssm'cm/abstract=XXXXXX Corso Magenta, 63, 20123 Milano, tel. +39/02/52036934 - fax +39/02/52036946 E-mail: letterfeem. it C.F. 97080600154 SUMMARY In this paper we develop a simple endogenous growth model with two competing production technologies and learning spillover effects between firms that use the same technology. Investments are directed to the technology with highest current and expected returns. Since current investments increase future returns through learning, the economy will usually lock in, that is specialise in one of the two technologies. In case the economy has selected a relative polluting technology, sustainable growth requires a transition towards the clean technology. We analyse the scope for (environmental) policies that induce such a transition

Research paper thumbnail of Active Learning about Climate Change

Abstract: We develop a climate-economy model with active learning. We consider three ways of acti... more Abstract: We develop a climate-economy model with active learning. We consider three ways of active learning: improved observations, adding observations from the past and improved theory from climate research. From the model, we find that the decision maker invests a significant amount of money in climate research. Expenditures to increase the rate of learning are far greater than the current level of expenditure on climate research, as it helps in taking improved decisions. The optimal carbon tax for the active learning model is nontrivially lower than that for the uncertainty model and the passive learning model. JEL classification: Q54

Research paper thumbnail of Economy-Ecology Integrated Model

This paper analyses ustainable development in an endogenous growth model which inte-grates a dyna... more This paper analyses ustainable development in an endogenous growth model which inte-grates a dynamic specification of both economic and ecological relations and all the interactions between the economy and the natural environment. It is common practice to solve growth models by looking at a balanced growth solution, which is often associated with sustainable development. We derive the conditions under which sustainable development is feasible and optimal. Finally, we discuss some comparative statics of the balanced growth solution and give a numerical example to illustrate the model and to provide further insight. JEL classification: O41; Q20; D60

Research paper thumbnail of Efficiency wage theory and general equilibrium

Serie Research Memoranda, 1990

Research paper thumbnail of Post-Kopenhagen (column)

Research paper thumbnail of Dynamiek van technologie-ontwikkeling : Innovatie, adoptie en diffusie

De laatste decennia laten een drastische toename van de uitstoot van broeikasgassen zien. Inmidde... more De laatste decennia laten een drastische toename van de uitstoot van broeikasgassen zien. Inmiddels wordt algemeen erkend dat het versterkte broeikaseffect in belangrijke mate door de mens wordt veroorzaakt. Het versterkte broeikaseffect zal naar verwachting leiden tot klimaatveranderingen, die overwegend als onwenselijk worden beschouwd. Om te komen tot een stabilisatie van broeikasgassen in de atmosfeer is een reductie van energieverbruik en daarmee gepaard gaande emissies vereist. Dit vraagt om beleid aangezien niet verwacht kan worden dat ‘de markt’ deze reductie tot stand zal brengen, gegeven onder meer het bestaan van afwentelingprocessen (‘externaliteiten’) en gebrek aan prijsprikkels (‘ongeprijsde schaarste’). Om te komen tot een reductie van energieverbruik en daarmee gepaard gaande emissies zijn er in principe drie mogelijkheden. De eerste optie is minder produceren en een lagere economische groei accepteren. De tweede optie is het wijzigen van de samenstelling van ons con...

Research paper thumbnail of On the exclusion from the use of a public good and pareto optimality

Serie Research Memoranda, 1987

In this paper we analyse whether it is Pareto Optimal to exclude individuals from using a non-pur... more In this paper we analyse whether it is Pareto Optimal to exclude individuals from using a non-pure public good. It turns out that maximum Social Welfare is attained either when everybody is allowed to use the public good or when just one individual is allowed to use it, depending upon the Social Welfare function. These Social Welfare Optima are also Pareto Optimal allocations. Whenever restrictions are made with respect to equal consumption plans for all users and equal consumption plans for all nonusers so-called Restricted Pareto Optima can be attained for every number of users. These Restricted Pareto Optima are not always also unrestricted Pareto Optima.