Ayushman Kaul | University of Warwick (original) (raw)

Papers by Ayushman Kaul

The Gulf occupies a position of immense geo-strategic importance lying in the friction zone betwe... more The Gulf occupies a position of immense geo-strategic importance lying in the friction zone between competing world powers – with Washington’s involvement in the region as part of a wider US security umbrella on one side, and Russia’s renewed engagement in the region on the other. Additionally, the region represents the shatter zone for regional powers hegemonic ambitions with Tehran and a Saudi-led-GCC competing for pre-eminence within the region. This analysis shall begin by employing the ‘Security Dilemma’ concept in order to categorise the deep-seated animosity and geopolitical machinations at play between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Having established the presence of a tense regional security paradox and provided a brief historical overview of the main sources of instability and conflict in the region, this analysis shall explore the dynamics of Doha’s attempt to capitalise upon the power vacuum created by the revolutions and counter-revolutions of the Arab Spring (2011-2012) that threw the existing security architecture in the region into disarray, toppling two of the three main centres of power in the region (Iraq, Egypt) and continue to devastate the third (Syria). Within this rapidly fluctuating regional security environment which has seen the emergence of a number of non-state and trans-state actors pursuing contradictory agendas, the emboldened regional activism emanating from Doha is placing tremendous strain upon the pre-existing Security Dilemma dynamics at play, stoking misperception and instability and accentuating the pre-existing geopolitical rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Additionally, the widespread anger generated by some of Doha’s Arab Spring policies across the Middle East and North Africa have also had the unintended consequences of alienating the countries traditional Arab allies and leaving the tiny state increasingly isolated in a volatile region.

In the face of increasing difficulties in sourcing sufficient supply at favourable prices, the GC... more In the face of increasing difficulties in sourcing sufficient supply at favourable prices, the GCC countries are expected to grow even more reliant on gas as a result of increasing domestic demand for power and desalinated water and plans for industrial diversification. Over the past three years, LNG imports into the region have grown by more than 380%, at a time when deliveries to traditional demand centers have been relatively stagnant or in decline. In light of these developments, many analysts have questioned why given Doha’s enormous resources and relatively small domestic needs, sought supply relationships on an international level while leaving regional demand unmet? This analysis shall determine that price and politics both play a significant role in explaining the rationale behind Qatar’s aversion to meeting this regional demand. On one hand, the proclivity for conflict in the region, alongside the fear of domination by its larger rivals have influenced Doha’s perception of its own insecurity leading Qatari policymakers to utilise its vast reserves of natural gas in order to achieve foreign policy objectives. In addition to these strategic considerations, gas-short GCC states have historically been unwilling to pay what Qatar considered a reasonable price for its gas. As a consequence of both these factors, Doha has sought to ‘rise above’ the export of natural gas to its Gulf neighbours and instead sought to cultivate a range of international stakeholders (particularly Washington) with a vested interest in safeguarding the Qatari regime from the belligerence of its larger Gulf rivals.

The character of Sino-Indian relations alongside the manner in which they manage their future as ... more The character of Sino-Indian relations alongside the manner in which they manage their future as rising powers in the same geo-strategic neighbourhood promises to critically shape the course of International Relations in the 21st century. The rising energy consumption of their societies, and the necessity of acquiring a sufficient supply of energy assets to continue their economic development have together fuelled a sense of insecurity amongst Indian and Chinese policymakers, who now find themselves increasingly competing with one another in order to guarantee the security of their imports along narrow strategic chokepoints. The heightening of insecurity felt by policymakers as a result of their growing import dependence is leading both nations to pursue the modernization and enlargement of their respective navies within the Indian Ocean Region. The destabilizing effect of both powers growing maritime vulnerability upon energy imports passing through narrow strategic chokepoints are having upon the pre-existing security dilemma dynamics between the two powers thus forms the focus of this analysis.
This analysis shall employ both material and ideational variables to demonstrate the multi-dimensional nature of the Sino-Indian energy dilemma. Consequently this investigation will conclude that the assertive actions of both navies are taken in the context of India and China’s growing reliance upon imported energy it presents a potent variable affecting the strategic calculus between the two powers in the region. This heightened uncertainty manifests itself most tangibly in China’s “Malacca Dilemma” and India’s “Hormuz Dilemma” indicating that economic processes by themselves have been unable to overcome the enduring rivalry between the two powers. In this regard the traditionalist prism which emphasizes the perpetual nature of insecurity in the inter-state realm is accurate in identifying the substantive challenge posed to both powers by their respective energy dilemmas.
Nevertheless the pessimism engendered by the traditionalist materialist discourse and exemplified by the offensive realist scholars is guilty of subsuming the importance of ideational and perceptual variables in maintaining both powers conflictual relationship. Consequently by acknowledging the role played by both material and perceptual factors policymakers are capable of gaining a more holistic appraisal of both nations intentions in this arena. Furthermore the emphasis upon the immutability of power politics in the inter-state realm will mean policymakers subscribing to this prism will continue to view their counter-parts through the lens of zero-sum competition thereby precluding any prospects for substantive co-operation between New Delhi and Beijing.

The security dilemma represents the most salient existential conundrums within International Rela... more The security dilemma represents the most salient existential conundrums within International Relations Theory. The uncertainty characterized by the security dilemma is a product of multiple material and psychological phenomena with the most important of them being the possession of weapon systems alongside the anarchical nature of the International State System. The former, by serving as 'inherently ambiguous symbols' make it impossible for decision makers to safely distinguish between 'offensive' and 'defensive' capabilities of other states. While the latter, amplify the pervasive condition of existential uncertainty felt by one set of decision makers when trying to ascertain the motives of decision makers of other states through a psychological dynamic referred to as the 'Other Minds Problem'. Cumulatively these processes represent what Wheeler and Booth refer to as the existential condition of unresolvable uncertainty that together exert tremendous influence upon the decisions made by states forcing them to 'err on the side of caution'1 when deliberating upon the motives and intentions of other states. After evaluating the examples of fatalist and mitigator logics through engaging with theorists belonging to both the offensive and defensive realist camp the essay contrasts both positions with the transcender logic advocated by Wendt theory of social constructivism. Ultimately the analysis concludes that the growth of international institutions such as the UN and the increasing interconnectedness of economic and societal relations across the world under the auspices of globalization have provided a perfect forum within which to create a degree of predictability within the international sphere. When this predictability is institutionalised into a set of deeply embedded norms it can serve as a pacifying element within interstate relations and potentially offer an escape from the insecurity mandated by the dilemma. The security dilemma represents the most salient existential conundrums within International Relations Theory. The importance of concept to the field is articulated succinctly by Booth and Wheeler who assert that the dilemma cuts to the 'very heart of politics among nations: the existential

This analysis begins by differentiating between the political systems of both countries contrasti... more This analysis begins by differentiating between the political systems of both countries contrasting the India's institutional democratic model with the conception of Russia as a " network state " as articulated by Kononenko. Subsequently I shall highlight the presence of two competing variants of nationalism within the popular discourse of both nations after which I shall demonstrate how by creating a link between domestic instability and foreign policy objectives, the ruling administrations in both countries have come to embrace this exclusivist religio-cultural conception of national identity particularly as it allowed them to legitimize repressive policies against any form of political opposition by portraying them within popular discourse as " foreign " or " unpatriotic ". This analysis shall conclude by emphasizing how the acceptance and promotion of this particular exclusivist conception of national identity within the corridors of power raises the potentialities for the pursuit of number of adverse national and international security policies, greatly increasing the potentialities for interstate conflict and thus regional stability.

Huntington's 'Clash of Civilizations' thesis has gained widespread notoriety amongst academic cir... more Huntington's 'Clash of Civilizations' thesis has gained widespread notoriety amongst academic circles for promoting an aggressively neo-conservative discourse. Despite being criticized by a plethora of prominent scholars such as E. Said as being 'a gimmick' that was 'better for reinforcing defensive self-pride than for critical understanding' 1 it gained widespread popularity being widely discussed not only within academic circles but also by the media and politicians across the western and non-western world as it reflected the atmosphere of growing pessimism and insecurity felt at the time amongst US policymaking circles. The Clash of Civilizations thesis argues for a reconceptualization of the International system along the lines of nine civilizations and consequently predicts an over-all increase in conflict driven on by an increase in civilizational awareness amongst like civilizations and an increased awareness of perceived differences among un-like civilizations. This analysis shall seek to evaluate the validity of Huntington's central assertions: 1) the validity of civilizations over states as basic units and 2) the primacy of the inter-civilizational over the interstate paradigm in its ability to illuminate the complexities of contemporary international affairs. After demonstrating the unsuitability of Huntington's culturalist analysis in subsuming the paradigm furthered by realism this analysis shall conclude by examining the meta-narrative constructed by the thesis around the September 11 th attacks and the subsequent war on terror in order to demonstrate the dangers of buying into the discourse furthered by the thesis. Particularly given its immense popularity, the thesis serves only to polarize popular opinion while increasing the capacity for intensifying conflicts or even bringing some about that would not have occurred.

Following the end of the Cold war the peaceful transformation of Asia belied the predictions made... more Following the end of the Cold war the peaceful transformation of Asia belied the predictions made by realist scholars for whom the region seemed " ripe for rivalry ". This development threatened the primacy of realist analysis in the study of East Asian political phenomena. This analysis shall begin by demonstrating that the relations between East Asian nations, in particular China, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN states correspond (albeit with some caveats) with the key characteristics of " complex interdependence " as articulated by institutionalist scholars Keohane and Nye in their text Power and Interdependence (1989). This gives some credibility to institutionalist and constructivist analysis which emphasizes how rapid economic changes and the growth of regional institutions have succeeded in substantially improving the relations between formerly adversarial nations within the region. However despite this largely peaceful economic transformation and a thawing in relations amongst the states, there remain a number of potential flash-points within the region. Thus, I shall also demonstrate the enduring presence of a security dilemma between the U.S, China and Japan over the issue of Taiwanese independence as well as highlight the salience of realism in analysing the outstanding territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Consequently, I shall conclude that that while economic growth and institutionalisation have enhanced the prospects for cooperation between states in the region, by themselves these processes have been unable to overcome longstanding and recent political disputes between regional powers in particular the security triangle between Japan-US-Taiwan and China. Nevertheless the narrow materialist analysis furthered by structural and offensive realists is guilty of exaggerating the potentialities for conflict between the great powers within the region, and if taken by themselves, are in danger of undermining the any prospects for the deepening of regional cooperation thereby precluding any chances of allowing the stabilising effects highlighted by inter-dependency and constructivists to bear fruition.