Ganna Pogrebna | University of Warwick (original) (raw)

Publications by Ganna Pogrebna

Management Science, forthcoming

The 'preference reversal phenomenon' – a systematic disparity between people’s valuations and cho... more The 'preference reversal phenomenon' – a systematic disparity between people’s valuations and choices – poses challenges for theory and policy. Using a very general formulation of probabilistic preferences, we show that the phenomenon is not mainly due to intransitive choice. We find a high degree of regularity within choice tasks and also within valuation tasks, but the two types of task appear to evoke very different cognitive processes, even when the experimental environment tries to minimise differences. We discuss possible implications for modelling and eliciting preferences.

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 49 (3), pp. 189-211, Dec 2014

We propose a broad framework for individual choice under risk which can accommodate many stochast... more We propose a broad framework for individual choice under risk which can accommodate many stochastic formulations of various deterministic theories. Using this framework to guide an experimental design, we show that most individuals’ departures from the independence axiom cannot be explained by adding a ‘random noise’ term to a deterministic ‘core’ theory which incorporates this axiom. We also find behaviour that cannot be explained in terms of the standard assumptions of Cumulative Prospect Theory, often invoked to account for violations of independence. Our results suggest that ‘similarity’ effects may explain the data better.

International Journal of Production Economics, Volume 159, pp. 76–87, Jan 2015

This paper considers the implications for Supply Chain Management (SCM) from the development of t... more This paper considers the implications for Supply Chain Management (SCM) from the development of the Internet of Things (IoT) or Internet Connected Objects (ICO). We focus on opportunities and challenges stemming from consumption data that comes from ICO, and on how this data can be mapped onto strategic choices of product variety. We develop a simple analytical framework that illustrates the underlying mechanisms of a product supplier/producer׳s choice between (i) producing multiple product varieties as a way of meeting consumer demand (a “tailoring strategy”), and (ii) offering a flexible and standardised platform which enables consumers׳ needs to be met by incorporating personal ICO data into various customisable applications (a “platform strategy”). Under a platform strategy, the ICO data is independently produced by other providers and can be called on in both use and context of use. We derive conditions under which each of the strategies may be profitable for the provider through maximising consumers’ value. Our findings are that the higher the demand for contextual variety, the more profitable the platform strategy becomes, relative to the tailoring strategy. Our study concludes by considering the implications for SCM research and practice with an extension to postponement taxonomies, including those where the customer, and not the supplier, is the completer of the product, and we show that this yields higher profits than the tailoring strategy.

Leadership Quarterly, 26 (2), pp. 123–142, Apr 2015

"This study explores the effects of leaders in an iconic, high-technology, turbulent industry. We... more "This study explores the effects of leaders in an iconic, high-technology, turbulent industry. We analyse 62 years of objective performance data from one of the world's most competitive sectors (Formula One competition). The study’s findings provide strong support for an ‘expert leader hypothesis’. The most successful leaders are disproportionately those who started as drivers or mechanics (not as general managers or university graduates in engineering). Moreover, within the sub-sample of former drivers, it is those who had the longest driving careers who went on to become the most effective leaders. Remarkably, the leader’s former experience as a competitive driver is a better predictor of current organizational performance than the driving experience of the person who is actually driving for the team. The study’s expert-leader findings are consistent with the hypothesis that longitudinal performance improves when a leader’s knowledge and expertise correlate with an organization’s core business activity."

Economic Journal, Volume 124, Issue 576, pages 569–593, May 2014

"There is widespread interest in measuring risk attitudes and incorporating such measures into br... more "There is widespread interest in measuring risk attitudes and incorporating such measures into broader econometric analyses. We consider three elicitation procedures currently in use. We find considerable variability within – and even more, between – the results they produce. We suggest that this reflects the way that different instruments interact with imprecise underlying preferences. The short run implication is that such procedures need to be used with caution and are likely to be highly context‐specific. The longer run implication is that adding ‘white noise’ to deterministic models is inadequate: we need to develop models that allow for imprecision and procedural variation."

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2013

We use a laboratory experiment to examine whether and to what extent other-regarding preferences ... more We use a laboratory experiment to examine whether and to what extent other-regarding preferences (efficiency, inequality aversion and maximin concerns) of team managers influence their management style in choice under risk. We find that managers who prefer efficiency are more likely to exercise an autocratic management style by ignoring preferences of their team members. Equality concerns have no significant impact on management styles. Elected managers have a higher propensity than exogenously assigned managers to use a democratic management style by reaching team consensus. We also find that male managers employ a democratic style more often than women.

Theory and Decision, 2011

We use a sequential voluntary contribution game to compare the relative impact of a first-mover’s... more We use a sequential voluntary contribution game to compare the relative impact of a first-mover’s non-binding announcement versus binding commitment on cooperation. We find that a non-binding announcement and a binding commitment increase individual contributions to a similar extent. Since announced contributions systematically exceed commitments, in sessions with a non-binding announcement, second-movers tend to contribute more to the group activity than in sessions with a binding commitment. Yet, second-movers appear to be more motivated towards achieving a social optimum when the first-mover uses commitment. We also find that a non-binding announcement has a higher impact on individual propensity to cooperate than the ex post contribution of the first-mover. However, the failure to make announced contributions decreases cooperation even though the first-mover is reassigned in every period.

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010

We select a menu of seven popular decision theories and embed each theory in five models of stoch... more We select a menu of seven popular decision theories and embed each theory in five models of stochastic choice, including tremble, Fechner and random utility model. We find that the estimated parameters of decision theories differ significantly when theories are combined with different models. Depending on the selected model of stochastic choice we obtain different rankings of decision theories with regard to their goodness of fit to the data. The fit of all analyzed decision theories improves significantly when they are embedded in a Fechner model of heteroscedastic truncated errors or a random utility model.

Theory and Decision, 2010

In the television show Deal or No Deal, a contestant is endowed with a sealed box containing a mo... more In the television show Deal or No Deal, a contestant is endowed with a sealed box containing a monetary prize between one cent and half a million euros. In the course of the show, the contestant is offered to exchange her box for another sealed box with the same distribution of possible monetary prizes inside. This offers a unique natural experiment for studying endowment effects under high monetary incentives. We find evidence of only a weak endowment effect when contestants exchange their box for another box with the same distribution of possible prizes.

Theory and Decision, 2009

Investors who are more willing to accept risks when evaluating their investments less frequently ... more Investors who are more willing to accept risks when evaluating their investments less frequently are said to exhibit myopic loss aversion (MLA). Several recent experimental studies found that, on average, subjects bet significantly higher amounts on a risky lottery when they observe only a cumulative outcome of several realizations of the lottery (long evaluation period). In this article, we reexamine these empirical findings by analyzing individual rather than aggregate choice patterns. The behavior of the majority of subjects is inconsistent with the hypothesis of MLA: they bet an intermediate fraction of their initial endowment and these bets, on average, are not significantly different across two treatments with short and long evaluation period. We discuss several alternative explanations of this finding, including the Fechner model of random errors and the financial asset pricing model.

Public Choice, 2009

This paper studies coordination in a multi-stage elimination tournament with large monetary incen... more This paper studies coordination in a multi-stage elimination tournament with large monetary incentives and a diversified subject pool drawn from the adult British population. In the tournament, members of an ad hoc team earn money by answering general knowledge questions and then eliminate one contestant by plurality voting without prior communication. We find that in the early rounds of the tournament, contestants use a focal principle and coordinate on one of the multiple Nash equilibria in pure strategies by eliminating the weakest member of the team. However, in the later rounds, contestants switch to playing a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium.

Economics Letters, 2009

In this paper we re-examine several experimental papers on myopic loss aversion by analyzing indi... more In this paper we re-examine several experimental papers on myopic loss aversion by analyzing individual rather than aggregate choice patterns. We ﬁnd that the behavior of the majority of subjects is inconsistent with the hypothesis of myopic loss aversion.

Theory and Decision, 2008

In the television show Deal or No Deal a contestant is endowed with a sealed box, which potential... more In the television show Deal or No Deal a contestant is endowed with a sealed box, which potentially contains a large monetary prize. In the course of the show the contestant learns more information about the distribution of possible monetary prizes inside her box. Consider two groups of contestants, who learned that the chances of their boxes containing a large prize are 20% and 80% correspondingly. Contestants in both groups receive qualitatively similar price offers for selling the content of their boxes. If contestants are less risk averse when facing unlikely gains, the price offer is likely to be more frequently rejected in the first group than in the second group. However, the fraction of rejections is virtually identical across two groups. Thus, contestants appear to have identical risk attitudes over (large) gains of low and high probability.

Economics Letters, 2008

In the television show Affari Tuoi contestants face decision problems with large monetary payoffs... more In the television show Affari Tuoi contestants face decision problems with large monetary payoffs and have an opportunity to seek advice from the audience. It appears that this advice does not have a significant impact on the decisions of contestants.

Working Papers by Ganna Pogrebna

In recent years, urban areas have seen a rapid growth in the Big Personal Data generation at ... more In recent years, urban areas have seen a rapid growth in the Big Personal Data generation at the individual citizen, community, and city levels. This, in turn, led to the increase in demand for new pricing mechanisms governing the exchange of Big Personal Data. This paper is framed in the context of how new data platforms, banks, and pricing mechanisms can benefit the stakeholders. In particular, we examine how emerging data platforms (that can enable data-driven business models and evaluate both existing and user-centric pricing mechanisms) can be combined with multi-sided markets. A case study involving commodity sensors, personal data, and consumer behaviour is showcased to illustrate the concepts in action.

This paper considers how context-independent data (content data) and context-dependent data (meta... more This paper considers how context-independent data (content data) and context-dependent data (metadata) about consumer choices can capture brand loyalty and affect the creation of new business models. We find that metadata can provide more precise account of consumer preferences and more accurately predict future user choices by increasing the visibility of user context. This implies that metadata should be preferred to content data to achieve more efficient business model innovation.

WMG Service Systems Research Group Working Paper Series, Apr 2014

"A large of body of evidence reports an adverse effect of children on parental life satisfaction.... more "A large of body of evidence reports an adverse effect of children on parental life satisfaction. Several alternative hypotheses have been proposed to explain this effect including after-birth changes in time schedules of both parents, in relationship dynamics and in division of labour between parents. The majority of these explanations are based on comparisons of life satisfaction before and after having children or life satisfaction of childless couples and parents. Yet, very little is known about the dynamics of parents’ life satisfaction when they are expecting a child. We explore transition to parenthood during pregnancy as an alternative explanation to decline in parental life satisfaction after childbirth. In a multi-country field experiment where mothers and their partners are approached at different stages of pregnancy as well as after childbirth, we find that life satisfaction follows a U-shaped pattern decreasing towards the middle of pregnancy and then improving at the late stage of pregnancy and after childbirth. Our results show that despite an increase in life satisfaction towards the late stage of pregnancy, satisfaction levels in both mothers and partners fail to reach levels equivalent to those observed at the early stages of pregnancy although, after childbirth, men tend to be more satisfied with their life than women."

Conference Presentations by Ganna Pogrebna

Cities are producing and collecting massive amount of data from various sources. To efficiently u... more Cities are producing and collecting massive amount of data from various sources. To efficiently use the large urban data sets, it is important to devise computationally efficient algorithms. This article test the performance of two partition algorithms: K-Means and Fuzzy c-Mean (FCM). Our experiments conclude that FCM outperformed the K-Means in computational
efficiency, but K-Means has a lower hardware utilisation.

Proceedings of the IEEE International Smart Cities Conference (ISC2-2015), Guadalajara, Mexico, Oct 1, 2015

This paper proposes a new approach to servitization and business models by understanding behaviou... more This paper proposes a new approach to servitization and business models by understanding behavioural aspects of human interactions with technology, specifically, with “smart” devices, connected devices, autonomous systems, and internet of things (IoT) through understanding and interacting with data which these devices and systems generate. Proposed approach, Behavioural Human Data Interaction Hypothesis (Behavioural HDI Hypothesis), which differs from existing literature, leverages on research in behavioural science, data-driven business models, multi-sided markets, and Human-Data Interaction (HDI). Behavioural HDI Hypothesis can offer a new approach to future markets for data because it helps to (a) predict consumer choice of product and services; (b) suggest new and improved interaction mechanisms between consumers and their self-generated data; and (c) propose a new approach for building and evaluating business models. To date, very little has been known about whether and how consumers and households accumulate, review and use self-generated data about consumption decisions and how this affects market relationships between consumers and providers of goods and services. This paper shows how Behavioural HDI Hypothesis can make markets for data more efficient through better personalisation and servitization. It also has implications for data collection visibility, data ownership and structure, platform trade-off, security and other ICT-related challenges which negatively affect current business models in the digital economy.