Thijs van Rens | University of Warwick (original) (raw)

Papers by Thijs van Rens

Research paper thumbnail of The vanishing procyclicality of labor productivity

The Economic Journal, Feb 10, 2021

We document two changes in postwar US macroeconomic dynamics: the procyclicality of labour produc... more We document two changes in postwar US macroeconomic dynamics: the procyclicality of labour productivity vanished, and the relative volatility of employment rose. We propose an explanation for these changes that is based on reduced hiring frictions due to improvements in information about the quality of job matches and the resulting decline in turnover. We develop a simple model with hiring frictions and variable effort to illustrate the mechanisms underlying our explanation. We show that our model qualitatively and quantitatively matches the observed changes in business cycle dynamics.

Research paper thumbnail of Age-based policy in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic : how common are multigenerational households?

Research Papers in Economics, Nov 1, 2020

The version presented here is a Working Paper (or 'pre-print') that may be later published elsewh... more The version presented here is a Working Paper (or 'pre-print') that may be later published elsewhere.

Research paper thumbnail of How distorted food prices discourage a healthy diet

Science Advances

Public policy making for the prevention of diet-related disease is impeded by a lack of evidence ... more Public policy making for the prevention of diet-related disease is impeded by a lack of evidence on whether poor diets are a matter of personal responsibility or a choice set narrowed by environmental conditions. An important element of the environment is market imperfections in food retail that distort prices. We use a rich dataset on quantities and prices of food purchases in the United States and a structural model of dietary choices to examine variation in diets across households that have different levels of income and live in different neighborhoods. We find that price distortions account for one-third of the gap between the recommended and actual intake of fruits and vegetables. A feasible fiscal intervention that remedies these distortions makes all consumers better off.

Research paper thumbnail of Discussion of Is Declining Union Membership Contributing to Low Wages Growth?

As union membership is declining, it is natural to ask whether this decline results in slower wag... more As union membership is declining, it is natural to ask whether this decline results in slower wage growth. The paper by James Bishop and Iris Chan (2019) studies this question in the context of the recent slowdown in wage growth in Australia and argues the answer is a clear “No”. It is a pleasure to discuss this paper, which not only adds to the discussion about the recent slowing in wage growth in Australia but makes some interesting contributions to the academic literature on unions as well.

Research paper thumbnail of WELFARE_MIGRANTS_ORIGINAL_FILE.TAB

Research paper thumbnail of Productivity and Welfare of Migrants in Chinese Megacities

We study productivity and welfare provision in megacities in China. We develop a model of interna... more We study productivity and welfare provision in megacities in China. We develop a model of internal migration to megacities under the Hukou system regulating public services to explore the impact of restricting migrants' access to public goods/services on their overall utility and utility derived from using key public services; and quantify how migration distorts the effect of income on utility, and how migrants contribute to the productivity of high tech sectors.

Research paper thumbnail of A rapid review of the evidence for children’s TV and online advertisement restrictions to fight obesity

Preventive Medicine Reports, 2022

Highlights • The relationship between obesity and exposure to food advertising meets all criteria... more Highlights • The relationship between obesity and exposure to food advertising meets all criteria commonly used to demonstrate the presence of a causal relationship in epidemiology.• Younger children (≤8 years of age) are more susceptible to the impacts of food marketing, in terms of quantity and quality of calories consumed, than older children and adults, although emerging evidence suggests that adolescents (10–19 years) may be most susceptible to the impacts of online advertisements.• Children from socio-economically disadvantaged and ethnic minority backgrounds are disproportionately exposed to unhealthy food advertisements.• Statutory regulation is a potentially cost-effective policy option, in terms of healthcare savings outweighing the costs of implementing the policy. However, advertising restrictions must be accompanied by community-based interventions that address other causes of poor diet and sedentary behaviour; this is because online and TV advertisements represent one small dimension in the wider obesogenic environment.• Voluntary bans are ineffective. Exposure to unhealthy food advertising is similar before and after the introduction of voluntary food advertisements.

Research paper thumbnail of Consumption Inequality

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase ... more Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 1990s. Second, we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent with models of heterogeneous income profiles.

Research paper thumbnail of nancial support from the Spanish Ministry of Education and Sciences (grant SEJ2005-01124) and the

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase ... more Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model ts the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we …nd that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 90s. Second, we reconcile this …nding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent with models of heterogeneous incom...

Research paper thumbnail of COVID-19 Outcomes in Minority Ethnic Groups: Do Obesity and Metabolic Risk Play a Role?

Current Obesity Reports, 2021

Purpose of Review Globally, minority ethnic groups have been at higher risk of COVID-19 mortality... more Purpose of Review Globally, minority ethnic groups have been at higher risk of COVID-19 mortality and morbidity than majority populations. This review outlines factors that may interact to create these inequalities and explores the hypothesis that differing levels of cardio-metabolic risk, according to ethnic group, play a role. Recent Findings Two UK Biobank studies have reported that the body mass index is more strongly associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 infection and mortality in minority ethnic populations than in White populations. A study of UK patients found that the strongest association between obesity and adverse COVID-19 outcomes was in people of Black ethnicity. Summary Differences in the prevalence of obesity and its metabolic sequelae have been shown to partly mediate ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 outcomes, although not always consistently. It is possible that ethnic differences in the consequences of obesity may explain some of the remaining disparity in ...

Research paper thumbnail of Education, Growth, and Income Inequality

Review of Economics and Statistics, 2008

An electronic version of the paper may be downloaded • from the SSRN website: www.SSRN.com • from... more An electronic version of the paper may be downloaded • from the SSRN website: www.SSRN.com • from the CESifo website: www.CESifo.de * We would like to thank Mikael Lindahl and Daniele Checchi for sharing their datasets. We are also grateful to Robert Shimer, Giorgio Primiceri and Alan Krueger for helpful comments. EDUCATION, GROWTH AND INCOME INEQUALITY Coen Teulings Thijs van Rens* CESifo Working Paper No. 653 (4)

Research paper thumbnail of Should Higher Education Subsidies Depend on Parental Income?

Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2004

Research paper thumbnail of Rethinking the skills gap

Research paper thumbnail of Delayed Adjustment and Persistence in Macroeconomic Models

Estimated impulse responses of investment and hiring typically peak well after the impact of a sh... more Estimated impulse responses of investment and hiring typically peak well after the impact of a shock. Standard models with adjustment costs in capital and labor do not exhibit such delayed adjustment, but we argue that it arises naturally when we relax the assumption that the production technology is separable over time. This result holds for both non-convex and convex cost functions, and for reasonable parameter values the e⁄ect is strong enough to match the persistence observed in the data. We discuss some evidence for our explanation and ways to test the model.

Research paper thumbnail of Accounting for Mismatch Unemployment Benedikt Herz

We investigate unemployment due to mismatch in the US over the past three decades. We propose an ... more We investigate unemployment due to mismatch in the US over the past three decades. We propose an accounting framework that allows us to estimate the overall amount of mismatch unemployment, as well as the contribution of each of the frictions that caused the mismatch. Mismatch is quantitatively important for unemployment and the cyclical behavior of mismatch unemployment is very similar to that of the overall unemployment rate. Geographic mismatch is driven primarily by wage frictions. Mismatch across industries is driven by wage frictions as well as barriers to job mobility. We find virtually no role for worker mobility frictions.

Research paper thumbnail of Is Declining Union Membership Contributing to Low Wages Growth? Discussion

As union membership is declining, it is natural to ask whether this decline results in slower wag... more As union membership is declining, it is natural to ask whether this decline results in slower wage growth. The paper by James Bishop and Iris Chan (2019) studies this question in the context of the recent slowdown in wage growth in Australia and argues the answer is a clear “No”. It is a pleasure to discuss this paper, which not only adds to the discussion about the recent slowing in wage growth in Australia but makes some interesting contributions to the academic literature on unions as well.

Research paper thumbnail of Healthy diets, lifestyle changes and wellbeing during and after lockdown: Longitudinal evidence from the West Midlands

Background: "Lockdowns" to control the spread of COVID-19 in the UK have affected many ... more Background: "Lockdowns" to control the spread of COVID-19 in the UK have affected many aspects of life, with concerns that they may have adversely affected diets. We aimed to examine (i) the effect of living in lockdown on fruit and vegetable consumption; (ii) whether any population subgroup was particularly adversely affected; (iii) the barriers and facilitators to a healthy diet in lockdown; and (iv) the effect of lockdown on secondary outcomes such as weight and mental wellbeing. Methods: We conducted a mixed-method longitudinal study, involving an online survey of 1003 adults in the West Midlands, UK, 494 of whom were surveyed at two different points in time. Our first time point (T0: May 2020) was during stringent COVID-19 lockdown and the second (T1: September 2020) during a period of more relaxed restrictions. The survey included detailed quantitative questions about fruit and vegetable consumption; questions on physical activity, socio-demographic characteristics, ...

Research paper thumbnail of Rethinking the skills gap Better understanding of skills mismatch is essential to finding effective policy options

Skills mismatch has large effects on productivity and unemployment, and is therefore an important... more Skills mismatch has large effects on productivity and unemployment, and is therefore an important concern for economic policymakers. Almost all proposed policy interventions suggest reforms of education and training as solutions to perceived shortages of skills, while little attention is paid to wage setting. This is problematic because such reforms, which are often expensive, will be ineffective if wages do not reflect relative skill shortages. If mismatch instead reflects an unresponsiveness of wages, then workers will “sell” their skills where they fetch the best price, rather than where they are most needed. Source: Adapted from [1]. ELEVATOR PITCH

Research paper thumbnail of The impact of lockdown on wellbeing, fruit and vegetable consumption, and eating behaviour

AEA Randomized Controlled Trials

Research paper thumbnail of The Vanishing Procyclicality of Labour Productivity*

The Economic Journal

We document two changes in postwar US macroeconomic dynamics: the procyclicality of labour produc... more We document two changes in postwar US macroeconomic dynamics: the procyclicality of labour productivity vanished, and the relative volatility of employment rose. We propose an explanation for these changes that is based on reduced hiring frictions due to improvements in information about the quality of job matches and the resulting decline in turnover. We develop a simple model with hiring frictions and variable effort to illustrate the mechanisms underlying our explanation. We show that our model qualitatively and quantitatively matches the observed changes in business cycle dynamics.

Research paper thumbnail of The vanishing procyclicality of labor productivity

The Economic Journal, Feb 10, 2021

We document two changes in postwar US macroeconomic dynamics: the procyclicality of labour produc... more We document two changes in postwar US macroeconomic dynamics: the procyclicality of labour productivity vanished, and the relative volatility of employment rose. We propose an explanation for these changes that is based on reduced hiring frictions due to improvements in information about the quality of job matches and the resulting decline in turnover. We develop a simple model with hiring frictions and variable effort to illustrate the mechanisms underlying our explanation. We show that our model qualitatively and quantitatively matches the observed changes in business cycle dynamics.

Research paper thumbnail of Age-based policy in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic : how common are multigenerational households?

Research Papers in Economics, Nov 1, 2020

The version presented here is a Working Paper (or 'pre-print') that may be later published elsewh... more The version presented here is a Working Paper (or 'pre-print') that may be later published elsewhere.

Research paper thumbnail of How distorted food prices discourage a healthy diet

Science Advances

Public policy making for the prevention of diet-related disease is impeded by a lack of evidence ... more Public policy making for the prevention of diet-related disease is impeded by a lack of evidence on whether poor diets are a matter of personal responsibility or a choice set narrowed by environmental conditions. An important element of the environment is market imperfections in food retail that distort prices. We use a rich dataset on quantities and prices of food purchases in the United States and a structural model of dietary choices to examine variation in diets across households that have different levels of income and live in different neighborhoods. We find that price distortions account for one-third of the gap between the recommended and actual intake of fruits and vegetables. A feasible fiscal intervention that remedies these distortions makes all consumers better off.

Research paper thumbnail of Discussion of Is Declining Union Membership Contributing to Low Wages Growth?

As union membership is declining, it is natural to ask whether this decline results in slower wag... more As union membership is declining, it is natural to ask whether this decline results in slower wage growth. The paper by James Bishop and Iris Chan (2019) studies this question in the context of the recent slowdown in wage growth in Australia and argues the answer is a clear “No”. It is a pleasure to discuss this paper, which not only adds to the discussion about the recent slowing in wage growth in Australia but makes some interesting contributions to the academic literature on unions as well.

Research paper thumbnail of WELFARE_MIGRANTS_ORIGINAL_FILE.TAB

Research paper thumbnail of Productivity and Welfare of Migrants in Chinese Megacities

We study productivity and welfare provision in megacities in China. We develop a model of interna... more We study productivity and welfare provision in megacities in China. We develop a model of internal migration to megacities under the Hukou system regulating public services to explore the impact of restricting migrants' access to public goods/services on their overall utility and utility derived from using key public services; and quantify how migration distorts the effect of income on utility, and how migrants contribute to the productivity of high tech sectors.

Research paper thumbnail of A rapid review of the evidence for children’s TV and online advertisement restrictions to fight obesity

Preventive Medicine Reports, 2022

Highlights • The relationship between obesity and exposure to food advertising meets all criteria... more Highlights • The relationship between obesity and exposure to food advertising meets all criteria commonly used to demonstrate the presence of a causal relationship in epidemiology.• Younger children (≤8 years of age) are more susceptible to the impacts of food marketing, in terms of quantity and quality of calories consumed, than older children and adults, although emerging evidence suggests that adolescents (10–19 years) may be most susceptible to the impacts of online advertisements.• Children from socio-economically disadvantaged and ethnic minority backgrounds are disproportionately exposed to unhealthy food advertisements.• Statutory regulation is a potentially cost-effective policy option, in terms of healthcare savings outweighing the costs of implementing the policy. However, advertising restrictions must be accompanied by community-based interventions that address other causes of poor diet and sedentary behaviour; this is because online and TV advertisements represent one small dimension in the wider obesogenic environment.• Voluntary bans are ineffective. Exposure to unhealthy food advertising is similar before and after the introduction of voluntary food advertisements.

Research paper thumbnail of Consumption Inequality

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase ... more Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 1990s. Second, we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent with models of heterogeneous income profiles.

Research paper thumbnail of nancial support from the Spanish Ministry of Education and Sciences (grant SEJ2005-01124) and the

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase ... more Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model ts the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we …nd that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 90s. Second, we reconcile this …nding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent with models of heterogeneous incom...

Research paper thumbnail of COVID-19 Outcomes in Minority Ethnic Groups: Do Obesity and Metabolic Risk Play a Role?

Current Obesity Reports, 2021

Purpose of Review Globally, minority ethnic groups have been at higher risk of COVID-19 mortality... more Purpose of Review Globally, minority ethnic groups have been at higher risk of COVID-19 mortality and morbidity than majority populations. This review outlines factors that may interact to create these inequalities and explores the hypothesis that differing levels of cardio-metabolic risk, according to ethnic group, play a role. Recent Findings Two UK Biobank studies have reported that the body mass index is more strongly associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 infection and mortality in minority ethnic populations than in White populations. A study of UK patients found that the strongest association between obesity and adverse COVID-19 outcomes was in people of Black ethnicity. Summary Differences in the prevalence of obesity and its metabolic sequelae have been shown to partly mediate ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 outcomes, although not always consistently. It is possible that ethnic differences in the consequences of obesity may explain some of the remaining disparity in ...

Research paper thumbnail of Education, Growth, and Income Inequality

Review of Economics and Statistics, 2008

An electronic version of the paper may be downloaded • from the SSRN website: www.SSRN.com • from... more An electronic version of the paper may be downloaded • from the SSRN website: www.SSRN.com • from the CESifo website: www.CESifo.de * We would like to thank Mikael Lindahl and Daniele Checchi for sharing their datasets. We are also grateful to Robert Shimer, Giorgio Primiceri and Alan Krueger for helpful comments. EDUCATION, GROWTH AND INCOME INEQUALITY Coen Teulings Thijs van Rens* CESifo Working Paper No. 653 (4)

Research paper thumbnail of Should Higher Education Subsidies Depend on Parental Income?

Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2004

Research paper thumbnail of Rethinking the skills gap

Research paper thumbnail of Delayed Adjustment and Persistence in Macroeconomic Models

Estimated impulse responses of investment and hiring typically peak well after the impact of a sh... more Estimated impulse responses of investment and hiring typically peak well after the impact of a shock. Standard models with adjustment costs in capital and labor do not exhibit such delayed adjustment, but we argue that it arises naturally when we relax the assumption that the production technology is separable over time. This result holds for both non-convex and convex cost functions, and for reasonable parameter values the e⁄ect is strong enough to match the persistence observed in the data. We discuss some evidence for our explanation and ways to test the model.

Research paper thumbnail of Accounting for Mismatch Unemployment Benedikt Herz

We investigate unemployment due to mismatch in the US over the past three decades. We propose an ... more We investigate unemployment due to mismatch in the US over the past three decades. We propose an accounting framework that allows us to estimate the overall amount of mismatch unemployment, as well as the contribution of each of the frictions that caused the mismatch. Mismatch is quantitatively important for unemployment and the cyclical behavior of mismatch unemployment is very similar to that of the overall unemployment rate. Geographic mismatch is driven primarily by wage frictions. Mismatch across industries is driven by wage frictions as well as barriers to job mobility. We find virtually no role for worker mobility frictions.

Research paper thumbnail of Is Declining Union Membership Contributing to Low Wages Growth? Discussion

As union membership is declining, it is natural to ask whether this decline results in slower wag... more As union membership is declining, it is natural to ask whether this decline results in slower wage growth. The paper by James Bishop and Iris Chan (2019) studies this question in the context of the recent slowdown in wage growth in Australia and argues the answer is a clear “No”. It is a pleasure to discuss this paper, which not only adds to the discussion about the recent slowing in wage growth in Australia but makes some interesting contributions to the academic literature on unions as well.

Research paper thumbnail of Healthy diets, lifestyle changes and wellbeing during and after lockdown: Longitudinal evidence from the West Midlands

Background: "Lockdowns" to control the spread of COVID-19 in the UK have affected many ... more Background: "Lockdowns" to control the spread of COVID-19 in the UK have affected many aspects of life, with concerns that they may have adversely affected diets. We aimed to examine (i) the effect of living in lockdown on fruit and vegetable consumption; (ii) whether any population subgroup was particularly adversely affected; (iii) the barriers and facilitators to a healthy diet in lockdown; and (iv) the effect of lockdown on secondary outcomes such as weight and mental wellbeing. Methods: We conducted a mixed-method longitudinal study, involving an online survey of 1003 adults in the West Midlands, UK, 494 of whom were surveyed at two different points in time. Our first time point (T0: May 2020) was during stringent COVID-19 lockdown and the second (T1: September 2020) during a period of more relaxed restrictions. The survey included detailed quantitative questions about fruit and vegetable consumption; questions on physical activity, socio-demographic characteristics, ...

Research paper thumbnail of Rethinking the skills gap Better understanding of skills mismatch is essential to finding effective policy options

Skills mismatch has large effects on productivity and unemployment, and is therefore an important... more Skills mismatch has large effects on productivity and unemployment, and is therefore an important concern for economic policymakers. Almost all proposed policy interventions suggest reforms of education and training as solutions to perceived shortages of skills, while little attention is paid to wage setting. This is problematic because such reforms, which are often expensive, will be ineffective if wages do not reflect relative skill shortages. If mismatch instead reflects an unresponsiveness of wages, then workers will “sell” their skills where they fetch the best price, rather than where they are most needed. Source: Adapted from [1]. ELEVATOR PITCH

Research paper thumbnail of The impact of lockdown on wellbeing, fruit and vegetable consumption, and eating behaviour

AEA Randomized Controlled Trials

Research paper thumbnail of The Vanishing Procyclicality of Labour Productivity*

The Economic Journal

We document two changes in postwar US macroeconomic dynamics: the procyclicality of labour produc... more We document two changes in postwar US macroeconomic dynamics: the procyclicality of labour productivity vanished, and the relative volatility of employment rose. We propose an explanation for these changes that is based on reduced hiring frictions due to improvements in information about the quality of job matches and the resulting decline in turnover. We develop a simple model with hiring frictions and variable effort to illustrate the mechanisms underlying our explanation. We show that our model qualitatively and quantitatively matches the observed changes in business cycle dynamics.