Thursday (original) (raw)

With Fox clearly set to win the February sweeps, the real race is for No. 2, and surrounding that very close race between ABC and CBS is a big if.
Odds favor CBS beating ABC, but ABC could win--here's the if--if just the right pieces fall into place over these final seven days.
The network needs a big bump from the Oscars on Sunday. But it also needs a bad showing for CBS on Monday night, along with a strong finale for �NYPD Blue� on Tuesday night.
When February sweeps end next Wednesday, Fox will likely better its 7.0 average rating in 18-49s through Tuesday night, putting it well ahead of ABC and CBS.
But those two are indeed close, with CBS at 3.9 and ABC at 3.7, and NBC isn't far behind at 3.6.
Looking ahead to the final seven days, ABC needs strong numbers from Sunday's Academy Awards. Chris Rock, this year's host, has generated some buzz, but with no standout film this year the show isn�t expected to surpass last year�s 15.3 18-49 rating.
During sweeps last year, ABC averaged a 3.2 18-49 rating in the 23 days before the Oscars. But the day after the Oscars, ABC�s average sweeps rating jumped 15.6 percent to a 3.7.
If ABC were to see a 15 percent increase again this year, it would definitely surpass CBS. Even a bump of 0.1 or 0.2 in its sweeps average, which it could get should the show average an 11 or more in adults 18-49, would be a help.
Sunday night is already ABC�s strongest (last week it averaged a 7.0 among 18-49s on the night), but the Oscars will do much better than a regular Sunday night for ABC.
Now on to Monday. CBS will be in partial reruns, saving original episodes of "Two and a Half Men" and �CSI: Miami� to counter the following week�s debut of NBC�s �The Contender.�
That night ABC will air the season finale of �The Bachelorette.� That alone will bolster ABC. Further working against CBS, Fox is now running "American Idol" on Mondays, which will suck away a lot of viewers.
CBS could potentially lose 0.1 from its sweeps average Monday.
Now on to Tuesday and the series finale of �NYPD Blue.� Though the show's no longer a hit, sentimental fans should help it to at least a 4.0 average. That would push ABC well ahead of CBS for the night.
And if it comes down to one final winner-take-second-place battle on Wednesday night, the edge again goes to ABC because of its strong lineup led by �Lost� and �Alias.�
Elsewhere on broadcast, CBS got very nice ratings for the premiere of �Survivor: Palau� last week, meaning its decision to start it later this season could pay off come May.
Last week�s premiere averaged a 9.1 rating among viewers 18-49, up 16.6 percent versus the 7.8 rating brought in by the premiere of last season�s �Survivor: Vanuatu,� placing it No. 5 for the week in the demo. Two episodes of Fox�s �American Idol� (11.5 each), ABC�s �Desperate Housewives� (11.0) and CBS�s �CSI� (10.9) made up the rest of last week�s top five among viewers 18-49.
ABC�s �Boston Legal� did well Sunday night, averaging a 4.6 rating among viewers 18-34, the show�s best-ever ratings in that demo. It also posted a 5.6 among 18-49s, winning its Sunday 10 p.m. timeslot and delivering the series' third-best ratings.
NBC�s Monday night drama �Medium� continued to justify its early second-season pickup, averaging a 5.9 rating among 18-49s, still holding 94 percent of its 6.3 premiere rating. The show has averaged 7.9 million viewers 18-49 this season, the highest for an NBC Monday drama since at least 1987.
And last week�s episode of �The Simpsons� on Fox, which created national buzz after Marge�s sister Patty came out of the closet, posted a 4.9 rating among viewers 18-49, tying it for No. 18 for the week.