ASIANOW - Asiaweek (original) (raw)
CONFRONTATIONS
'Temporary Blockade'
A New Missile Threat as Taiwan Prepares to Vote
By Todd Crowell and Chris Bodeen / Taipei
A POWERFUL EARTHQUAKE JOLTED northern Taiwan last week, shaking high-rise apartment buildings and sending residents rushing into the streets or taking shelter under tables. For more than a few, the thought flashed through their minds: was it a Chinese missile? Earlier that day, Beijing had announced a more menacing round of missile tests to take place north and south of Taiwan between March 8 and 15.
One impact zone is only about 35 km east of the island's northeast coast; the other, 50 km to the west of the biggest port, Kaohsiung in the south. The bulls' eyes are much closer to the coast than the tests last July. And for the first time, the missiles will straddle Taiwan, one dropping near the second-largest port, Keelung.
If China's missilemen miscalculate, they could cause a major incident. Taipei's Defense Ministry reportedly warned that the army would strike back if any rockets land in what Taiwan considers its territorial waters. (Officials denied the reports.)
The capital is only 75 km from the northern target zone. Being so close to major ports, the tests could be a dress rehearsal for economic blockade, say Western defense analysts. Beijing warned ships and planes to avoid the impact areas. A heavily used airline route to Japan would be closed, adding 5-10 minutes to flights. Ships on the Kaohsiung-Hong Kong run would have to sail further south, a trip two hours longer. The Council on Agriculture said Taiwan had 1 million tons of rice stockpiled, enough for seven months.
The measured escalation in Beijing's campaign to intimidate Taiwan seemed to confirm reports that China's military has a plan to ratchet up the pressure. It is supposedly at the "shock" stage, and the next phase could involve harassing outer islands held by Taiwan. The PLA high command is said to be studying several pretexts for more action. Often mentioned: an incident involving fishermen. Last week 200-300 mainland fishing boats appeared in waters near Taiwan.
Beijing has resumed verbal attacks on Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui. His election rivals continued their own assault, even as some opinion leaders urged him to tone down his anti-China rhetoric. "If you vote for Lee, you choose war," warned Chen Li-an, an independent candidate. Democratic Progressive Party candidate and independence advocate Peng Ming-min wanted mainland dealings stopped.
The U.S., whose grant of a visa to Lee ignited tensions last year, talked much tougher than in July. Defense Secretary William Perry said the tests were too close to Taiwan. Former CIA chief James Woolsey declared at a press conference that the missile tests would amount to a "temporary blockade" and could trigger consultations between the White House and Congress. Two ex-defense officials visiting Taiwan also criticized China.
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