Lionel Fatton | Webster University (original) (raw)

Papers by Lionel Fatton

Asian security, Jan 29, 2024

Some scholars claim that Japan’s 2022 documents mark a critical juncture in security policy. Is t... more Some scholars claim that Japan’s 2022 documents mark a critical juncture in security policy. Is this the case? I argue for a positive answer but, based on deterrence concepts, not for the reasons advanced. Counterstrike capabilities and other aspects of the documents pinpointed by scholars are more adaptations of, than deviations from, past deterrence practices. An overlooked and more substantial evolution is taking place amid an intensifying deterrence-entrapment dilemma: the adoption of a forward deterrence posture aimed at preventing crises in the Taiwan Strait through the projection of general deterrent effects. This posture constitutes a critical juncture because it sets Japan on the path of becoming a potent regional security actor. It also raises questions about Tokyo’s ability to keep a balanced approach toward China.

Asian Security, 2024

Some scholars claim that Japan’s 2022 documents mark a critical juncture in security policy. Is t... more Some scholars claim that Japan’s 2022 documents mark a critical juncture in security policy. Is this the case? I argue for a positive answer but, based on deterrence concepts, not for the reasons advanced. Counterstrike capabilities and other aspects of the documents pinpointed by scholars are more adaptations of, than deviations from, past deterrence practices. An overlooked and more substantial evolution is taking place amid an intensifying deterrence-entrapment dilemma: the adoption of a forward deterrence posture aimed at preventing crises in the Taiwan Strait through the projection of general deterrent effects. This posture constitutes a critical juncture because it sets Japan on the path of becoming a potent regional security actor. It also raises questions about Tokyo’s ability to keep a balanced approach toward China.

The Diplomat, 2013

What the recent changes to Japanese defense mean in the context of a return to “normalcy.”

The Diplomat, 2014

What are the implications of Japan’s constitutional reinterpretation on regional security dynamics?

The Diplomat, 2015

How Japan’s new civil-military relations change its security posture and policy.

Strategic Security Analysis, 2016

In less than three years, Tokyo has recovered the right to defend an ally under armed attack and ... more In less than three years, Tokyo has recovered the right to defend an ally under armed attack and the ability to cooperate with other countries on security issues without geographical constraint. A ban on arms exports that had prevented Japan from engaging strategic partners for decades has been removed. What does this revamped security architecture imply for Japan’s security policy?
This analysis approaches this question from the perspective of Tokyo’s response to challenges in the South China Sea, where tensions are growing amid the rise of China. It shows how the Japanese government is pursuing a strategy of “offshore balancing,” hoping that the military assets of its regional partners can deter Beijing from taking destabilising initiatives. The analysis concludes that, depending primarily on the evolution of China’s behaviour, Japan may well become directly involved in the South China Sea in the near future.

Policy Forum, 2017

The Trump administration’s decision to strike the Syrian regime is helping reassure Asian allies ... more The Trump administration’s decision to strike the Syrian regime is helping reassure Asian allies anxious over North Korea.

IPI Global Observatory, 2017

In the wake of a multiple missile salvo that once again heightened tensions on the Korean peninsu... more In the wake of a multiple missile salvo that once again heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on March 8 proposed a new approach to address the North Korean threat. On the fringes of the National People’s Congress annual session, Wang told journalists that, “to defuse the looming crisis on the peninsula, China proposes that, as a first step, the DPRK [North Korea] suspend its missile and nuclear activities in exchange for a halt of the large-scale US-ROK [South Korea] exercises.” Both the United States and South Korean ambassadors to the United Nations at first rejected the idea, the latter claiming that, “this is just trying to link the unlinkable.” Is this really the case?

History of Global Arms Transfer, 2017

The Imperial Japanese Navy asked in 1934 for a drastic revision of the Washington system of naval... more The Imperial Japanese Navy asked in 1934 for a drastic revision of the Washington system of naval arms control, eventually leading Japan to withdraw from the system in late 1936. Given the arms race and the tensions that ensued with the United States, the rejection of arms control was a decisive step on Japan’s road to the Pacific War. Why did the Japanese government embrace the navy’s strategic requirements and take such a risky decision? The present article first shows that to disengage from arms control was strategically rational for the navy as an institution. It was its duty to oppose arms control if the latter jeopardized national security, which was the case in the mid-1930s. If the navy perfectly played its role, it should not have been able to impose its view about arms control on the government. Japanese leaders should have prioritized diplomacy, not power politics. This undue political influence of the navy came from dysfunctions in civil-military relations dating back to the early Meiji era.

IPI Global Observatory, 2017

Recent North Korean nuclear tests have triggered a sense of urgency in the United States and its ... more Recent North Korean nuclear tests have triggered a sense of urgency in the United States and its Asian allies South Korea and Japan. As the reclusive country gets closer to being able to target American territories with nuclear devices, the specter of decoupling the policy objectives of Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo is hanging over the American-led “hub and spokes” alliance system. The idea of developing indigenous nuclear weapons is gaining ground in South Korea, while Japan is gradually moving toward a more autonomous defense posture. China, meanwhile, cannot help but be concerned by these developments.

Policy Forum, 2018

How will Japan navigate its relations with the US and China as it re-enters the great power game?

Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies, 2018

Japan's security policy has changed dramatically in recent years. The country balances harder aga... more Japan's security policy has changed dramatically in recent years. The country balances harder against China, and its armed forces are increasingly autonomous from their American counterparts. What explains Japan's growing autonomy and balancing tendency after decades of relative apathy? I argue that this new strategic orientation results from unprecedented doubts about the effectiveness of its traditional security policy amidst an unstable China-U.S.-Japan triangular relationship. Tokyo is increasingly uncertain about American security commitments in the face of a more assertive China. As both the alliance with the United States and the accommodation of China are becoming unsuitable strategies for guaranteeing national security, Japan reverts to a more autonomous and resolute posture. Japan's new security policy will have important consequences for the triangular relationship.

East Asia Forum, 2019

The world is rapidly multipolarising. Although the United States will remain the centre of the in... more The world is rapidly multipolarising. Although the United States will remain the centre of the international system for the foreseeable future, the rise of China is shifting gravity towards Asia. This has resulted in growing tensions between Washington and Beijing, notably over China’s economic practices and behaviour in the South China Sea. Japan, locked between two superpowers and threatened by North Korea, is awakening to a new reality.

Policy Forum, 2019

Relying on economic prosperity for its legitimacy, the Chinese Communist Party is desperate to fi... more Relying on economic prosperity for its legitimacy, the Chinese Communist Party is desperate to find a resolution of the US-China trade war. Unfortunately for China, the ball remains in America’s court.

Asie.Visions (Ifri), 2020

Japan’s space program has evolved greatly since the end of the Cold War, driven by a rapidly chan... more Japan’s space program has evolved greatly since the end of the Cold War, driven by a rapidly changing geopolitical environment and tailored by the emergence of an “intra-alliance hedging strategy”. Concerns about the United States’ readiness and ability to fulfill its security commitments have led Tokyo to enact security reforms to enhance its value as an ally while moving toward a more autonomous defense posture to prepare for the worst-case scenario of abandonment. This has transformed the Japanese space program from one based on the principle of peaceful use of space to a program aimed at ensuring national security through non-offensive means.

The National Interest, 2020

Stuck between an assertive China, a nuclearizing North Korea, and an increasingly unreliable Unit... more Stuck between an assertive China, a nuclearizing North Korea, and an increasingly unreliable United States, Japan is mulling the acquisition of strike capabilities. Its upcoming missile defense policy could destabilize East Asia. The United States must act.

International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 2019

Japan is on the verge of what would be a dramatic shift in defense posture. The ‘spear and shield... more Japan is on the verge of what would be a dramatic shift in defense posture. The ‘spear and shield’ structure of the US–Japan alliance, at the center of its security policy for most of the postwar era, is being revamped by a move toward autonomous defense. Why would a country confined to a largely passive and Americanocentrist posture for more than half a century suddenly change course? I argue that autonomy is for Japan the only way out of an unprecedented ‘entrapment-abandonment dilemma’: any attempt to prevent defection by the United States in the face of an increasingly assertive China heightens to an unacceptable level the risk of Japan being dragged into a US-led conflict in the Korean Peninsula, and vice versa. Japan’s ability to wield the spear would likely have destabilizing consequences for the whole Asia-Pacific region.

Contemporary Security Policy, 2016

ABSTRACT Amid tensions with the West over Ukraine, Russia pulled out of the Treaty on Conventiona... more ABSTRACT Amid tensions with the West over Ukraine, Russia pulled out of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe in March 2015. The Russian case is another example of a country disengaging from conventional arms control when relations with other member states deteriorate. This raises an important question: can arms control regimes aimed at preventing conflict survive periods of tension and preserve peace? This article argues no. It demonstrates that the prospect and stability of conventional arms control regimes depend on healthy international relations. In times of tension, governments rely on military institutions for advice and absorb military biases incompatible with arms control. Therefore, these regimes fail when most needed and are impotent as instruments of peace. Beyond conventional arms control, the article hints at the fragility of nuclear agreements such as the 2015 Iran deal and the 2010 New START between the United States and Russia.

The nationalization of the Senkakus opened a Pandora's box of conflicting sovereignty claims that... more The nationalization of the Senkakus opened a Pandora's box of conflicting sovereignty claims that Japan will not be able to close without either conceding on key issues regarding the administration of the islands and surrounding waters or risking a sustained escalation of the dispute. By analyzing Japan’s political landscape, the strategic objectives of the People’s Republic of China, the goals of the Republic of China (Taiwan), and the nationalism-driven militarization of the region, this article explains why the current dispute over the Senkakus is likely to be a protracted one.

Asian security, Jan 29, 2024

Some scholars claim that Japan’s 2022 documents mark a critical juncture in security policy. Is t... more Some scholars claim that Japan’s 2022 documents mark a critical juncture in security policy. Is this the case? I argue for a positive answer but, based on deterrence concepts, not for the reasons advanced. Counterstrike capabilities and other aspects of the documents pinpointed by scholars are more adaptations of, than deviations from, past deterrence practices. An overlooked and more substantial evolution is taking place amid an intensifying deterrence-entrapment dilemma: the adoption of a forward deterrence posture aimed at preventing crises in the Taiwan Strait through the projection of general deterrent effects. This posture constitutes a critical juncture because it sets Japan on the path of becoming a potent regional security actor. It also raises questions about Tokyo’s ability to keep a balanced approach toward China.

Asian Security, 2024

Some scholars claim that Japan’s 2022 documents mark a critical juncture in security policy. Is t... more Some scholars claim that Japan’s 2022 documents mark a critical juncture in security policy. Is this the case? I argue for a positive answer but, based on deterrence concepts, not for the reasons advanced. Counterstrike capabilities and other aspects of the documents pinpointed by scholars are more adaptations of, than deviations from, past deterrence practices. An overlooked and more substantial evolution is taking place amid an intensifying deterrence-entrapment dilemma: the adoption of a forward deterrence posture aimed at preventing crises in the Taiwan Strait through the projection of general deterrent effects. This posture constitutes a critical juncture because it sets Japan on the path of becoming a potent regional security actor. It also raises questions about Tokyo’s ability to keep a balanced approach toward China.

The Diplomat, 2013

What the recent changes to Japanese defense mean in the context of a return to “normalcy.”

The Diplomat, 2014

What are the implications of Japan’s constitutional reinterpretation on regional security dynamics?

The Diplomat, 2015

How Japan’s new civil-military relations change its security posture and policy.

Strategic Security Analysis, 2016

In less than three years, Tokyo has recovered the right to defend an ally under armed attack and ... more In less than three years, Tokyo has recovered the right to defend an ally under armed attack and the ability to cooperate with other countries on security issues without geographical constraint. A ban on arms exports that had prevented Japan from engaging strategic partners for decades has been removed. What does this revamped security architecture imply for Japan’s security policy?
This analysis approaches this question from the perspective of Tokyo’s response to challenges in the South China Sea, where tensions are growing amid the rise of China. It shows how the Japanese government is pursuing a strategy of “offshore balancing,” hoping that the military assets of its regional partners can deter Beijing from taking destabilising initiatives. The analysis concludes that, depending primarily on the evolution of China’s behaviour, Japan may well become directly involved in the South China Sea in the near future.

Policy Forum, 2017

The Trump administration’s decision to strike the Syrian regime is helping reassure Asian allies ... more The Trump administration’s decision to strike the Syrian regime is helping reassure Asian allies anxious over North Korea.

IPI Global Observatory, 2017

In the wake of a multiple missile salvo that once again heightened tensions on the Korean peninsu... more In the wake of a multiple missile salvo that once again heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on March 8 proposed a new approach to address the North Korean threat. On the fringes of the National People’s Congress annual session, Wang told journalists that, “to defuse the looming crisis on the peninsula, China proposes that, as a first step, the DPRK [North Korea] suspend its missile and nuclear activities in exchange for a halt of the large-scale US-ROK [South Korea] exercises.” Both the United States and South Korean ambassadors to the United Nations at first rejected the idea, the latter claiming that, “this is just trying to link the unlinkable.” Is this really the case?

History of Global Arms Transfer, 2017

The Imperial Japanese Navy asked in 1934 for a drastic revision of the Washington system of naval... more The Imperial Japanese Navy asked in 1934 for a drastic revision of the Washington system of naval arms control, eventually leading Japan to withdraw from the system in late 1936. Given the arms race and the tensions that ensued with the United States, the rejection of arms control was a decisive step on Japan’s road to the Pacific War. Why did the Japanese government embrace the navy’s strategic requirements and take such a risky decision? The present article first shows that to disengage from arms control was strategically rational for the navy as an institution. It was its duty to oppose arms control if the latter jeopardized national security, which was the case in the mid-1930s. If the navy perfectly played its role, it should not have been able to impose its view about arms control on the government. Japanese leaders should have prioritized diplomacy, not power politics. This undue political influence of the navy came from dysfunctions in civil-military relations dating back to the early Meiji era.

IPI Global Observatory, 2017

Recent North Korean nuclear tests have triggered a sense of urgency in the United States and its ... more Recent North Korean nuclear tests have triggered a sense of urgency in the United States and its Asian allies South Korea and Japan. As the reclusive country gets closer to being able to target American territories with nuclear devices, the specter of decoupling the policy objectives of Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo is hanging over the American-led “hub and spokes” alliance system. The idea of developing indigenous nuclear weapons is gaining ground in South Korea, while Japan is gradually moving toward a more autonomous defense posture. China, meanwhile, cannot help but be concerned by these developments.

Policy Forum, 2018

How will Japan navigate its relations with the US and China as it re-enters the great power game?

Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies, 2018

Japan's security policy has changed dramatically in recent years. The country balances harder aga... more Japan's security policy has changed dramatically in recent years. The country balances harder against China, and its armed forces are increasingly autonomous from their American counterparts. What explains Japan's growing autonomy and balancing tendency after decades of relative apathy? I argue that this new strategic orientation results from unprecedented doubts about the effectiveness of its traditional security policy amidst an unstable China-U.S.-Japan triangular relationship. Tokyo is increasingly uncertain about American security commitments in the face of a more assertive China. As both the alliance with the United States and the accommodation of China are becoming unsuitable strategies for guaranteeing national security, Japan reverts to a more autonomous and resolute posture. Japan's new security policy will have important consequences for the triangular relationship.

East Asia Forum, 2019

The world is rapidly multipolarising. Although the United States will remain the centre of the in... more The world is rapidly multipolarising. Although the United States will remain the centre of the international system for the foreseeable future, the rise of China is shifting gravity towards Asia. This has resulted in growing tensions between Washington and Beijing, notably over China’s economic practices and behaviour in the South China Sea. Japan, locked between two superpowers and threatened by North Korea, is awakening to a new reality.

Policy Forum, 2019

Relying on economic prosperity for its legitimacy, the Chinese Communist Party is desperate to fi... more Relying on economic prosperity for its legitimacy, the Chinese Communist Party is desperate to find a resolution of the US-China trade war. Unfortunately for China, the ball remains in America’s court.

Asie.Visions (Ifri), 2020

Japan’s space program has evolved greatly since the end of the Cold War, driven by a rapidly chan... more Japan’s space program has evolved greatly since the end of the Cold War, driven by a rapidly changing geopolitical environment and tailored by the emergence of an “intra-alliance hedging strategy”. Concerns about the United States’ readiness and ability to fulfill its security commitments have led Tokyo to enact security reforms to enhance its value as an ally while moving toward a more autonomous defense posture to prepare for the worst-case scenario of abandonment. This has transformed the Japanese space program from one based on the principle of peaceful use of space to a program aimed at ensuring national security through non-offensive means.

The National Interest, 2020

Stuck between an assertive China, a nuclearizing North Korea, and an increasingly unreliable Unit... more Stuck between an assertive China, a nuclearizing North Korea, and an increasingly unreliable United States, Japan is mulling the acquisition of strike capabilities. Its upcoming missile defense policy could destabilize East Asia. The United States must act.

International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 2019

Japan is on the verge of what would be a dramatic shift in defense posture. The ‘spear and shield... more Japan is on the verge of what would be a dramatic shift in defense posture. The ‘spear and shield’ structure of the US–Japan alliance, at the center of its security policy for most of the postwar era, is being revamped by a move toward autonomous defense. Why would a country confined to a largely passive and Americanocentrist posture for more than half a century suddenly change course? I argue that autonomy is for Japan the only way out of an unprecedented ‘entrapment-abandonment dilemma’: any attempt to prevent defection by the United States in the face of an increasingly assertive China heightens to an unacceptable level the risk of Japan being dragged into a US-led conflict in the Korean Peninsula, and vice versa. Japan’s ability to wield the spear would likely have destabilizing consequences for the whole Asia-Pacific region.

Contemporary Security Policy, 2016

ABSTRACT Amid tensions with the West over Ukraine, Russia pulled out of the Treaty on Conventiona... more ABSTRACT Amid tensions with the West over Ukraine, Russia pulled out of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe in March 2015. The Russian case is another example of a country disengaging from conventional arms control when relations with other member states deteriorate. This raises an important question: can arms control regimes aimed at preventing conflict survive periods of tension and preserve peace? This article argues no. It demonstrates that the prospect and stability of conventional arms control regimes depend on healthy international relations. In times of tension, governments rely on military institutions for advice and absorb military biases incompatible with arms control. Therefore, these regimes fail when most needed and are impotent as instruments of peace. Beyond conventional arms control, the article hints at the fragility of nuclear agreements such as the 2015 Iran deal and the 2010 New START between the United States and Russia.

The nationalization of the Senkakus opened a Pandora's box of conflicting sovereignty claims that... more The nationalization of the Senkakus opened a Pandora's box of conflicting sovereignty claims that Japan will not be able to close without either conceding on key issues regarding the administration of the islands and surrounding waters or risking a sustained escalation of the dispute. By analyzing Japan’s political landscape, the strategic objectives of the People’s Republic of China, the goals of the Republic of China (Taiwan), and the nationalism-driven militarization of the region, this article explains why the current dispute over the Senkakus is likely to be a protracted one.

Peter Lang, 2019

Japan has been moving toward a more independent security policy since the early 2010s, duplicatin... more Japan has been moving toward a more independent security policy since the early 2010s, duplicating the military assets of the United States and reorganizing the Self-Defense Forces. In Japan’s Awakening, Lionel P. Fatton and Oreste Foppiani argue that the country faces an entrapment-abandonment dilemma in which any attempt to prevent abandonment by the United States vis-à-vis China negatively affects its national security by heightening the risk of entrapment in the Korean Peninsula, and vice versa. A move toward autonomy is the only way for Japan to solve this dilemma. The subject is at variance with both the insistence on the constraining effect of domestic norms on Japan’s security policy and the assumption of everlasting reliance on the United States for protection.

Palgrave Macmillan, 2023

This book investigates the phenomenon of overbalancing through an analysis of Japan’s foreign pol... more This book investigates the phenomenon of overbalancing through an analysis of Japan’s foreign policy during the interbellum. In the mid-1930s, Japan withdrew from a naval arms control framework that had restrained military buildup on both sides of the Pacific Ocean since the early 1920s. By doing so, Japan not only triggered a naval arms race with the United States that exhausted its economy, it also destroyed the last institutionalized structure regulating the relationship between the two Pacific powers. Japan and the United States became caught in a spiral of tensions that culminated with the attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941. Puzzling is the fact that the international environment in the Asia-Pacific was relatively stable in the mid-1930s, while Washington was pursuing a policy of accommodation toward Tokyo. By rejecting arms control and engaging in unfettered naval expansion, Japan overbalanced against the United States and began its rush to the Pacific War.

The book explains Japan’s overbalancing with a neoclassical realist model that combines the literatures on threat perception and civil-military relations. Amid the Manchurian crisis of 1931-1933, as the Japanese government collaborated with the military institution to address the situation in China, military influence on the formulation of foreign policy surged. The perceptual and policy biases of the military, which include the tendency to distrust other countries’ intentions, to adopt worst-case analyses of international dynamics and to strive to maximize military power, gradually penetrated the decision-making process. Dysfunctions in the preexisting structure of Japanese civil-military relations, engendered by an over-depoliticization of the military institution, allowed the navy to convince policymakers that the United States was inherently hostile to Japan, hence the necessity to prepare for war. The government was brainstormed, adopting the biased military perspective on international affairs. Japan overbalanced in a myopic but conscious way.