Timothy Rich | Western Kentucky University (original) (raw)
Papers by Timothy Rich
Journal of Asian and African Studies, 2013
This paper addresses the effects of the mixed system used for the last three elections in Lesotho... more This paper addresses the effects of the mixed system used for the last three elections in Lesotho (2002, 2007 and 2012), a small African country with a turbulent history regarding opposition acceptance of elections. The decision to implement a mixed system was in part to encourage democratic stability, yet whether the electoral system has become more conducive to democratic competition is unclear. Through an analysis of national and district-level results, this paper addresses the following questions. First, at the district level, is competition consistent with Duverger’s law or the contamination thesis and is a progression over time evident? Second, does the population size of a district influence the number of candidates and the concentration of votes? Finally, following recent research on detecting electoral fraud, this paper tackles whether the reports of district results suggest extra-institutional manipulation.
What influences the timing of vote choices in mixed-member systems and to what extent does this i... more What influences the timing of vote choices in mixed-member systems and to what extent does this influence split-ticketing voting? Although voters cast both ballots in effect simultaneously, they may make their decisions on which candidate and party to support sequentially. Using Japan’s 2012 election as a case study, empirical analyses find that the district nominations influence the timing of one’s district vote intention. Meanwhile the timing of vote choices corresponds with ticket-splitting, even after controlling for partisan and socio-economic factors.
What influences the timing of vote choices in mixed-member systems and to what extent does this i... more What influences the timing of vote choices in mixed-member systems and to what extent does this influence split-ticketing voting? Although voters cast both ballots in effect simultaneously, they may make their decisions on which candidate and party to support sequentially. Using Japan’s 2012 election as a case study, empirical analyses find that the district nominations influence the timing of one’s district vote intention. Meanwhile the timing of vote choices corresponds with ticket-splitting, even after controlling for partisan and socio-economic factors.
The literature on losers' consent identifies clear distinctions in perceptions of democracy betwe... more The literature on losers' consent identifies clear distinctions in perceptions of democracy between electoral losers and winners. However, little of the literature addresses the complexities of mixed member electoral systems or compares this winner–loser divergence to that of non-voters. An analysis of post-election surveys in Germany in 2009 and 2013 allows for a disaggregation of types of losers and non-voters. Results find that voting for a district candidate from a losing party has a greater effect on perceptions than voting for a losing party in the proportional representation tier, while losing in both appeared to slow the decline in positive evaluations of the system. Meanwhile clear distinctions between perceptions of different types of non-voters emerge.
Why does Mexico’s mixed legislative system diverge from Duverger’s Law? Rather than rehash cultur... more Why does Mexico’s mixed legislative system diverge from Duverger’s Law? Rather than rehash cultural and historical explanations, we suggest two institutional factors – a fused ballot and compulsory voting laws – may explain this divergence. Cross-national evidence controlling for these factors suggests Mexico is not an outlier and that the fused ballot encourages multiparty district competition. The results also suggest ways reforms could bring competition closer toward Duvergerian expectations.
Public support for gay and lesbian rights has increased in Western democracies, yet less is known... more Public support for gay and lesbian rights has increased in Western democracies, yet less is known regarding views in South Korea or East Asia more broadly. Rather than broad cultural claims, this analysis asks to what extent religious identification explains perceptions of gays and
lesbians. Public opinion survey data from South Korea finds that Protestants were consistently less supportive of homosexual issues compared to Catholics, Buddhists, and those without a religious identification. Furthermore, after controlling for religion, identification with the largest conservative party associated with less support.
Duverger’s Law expects two-party competition in single member districts (SMDs), but evidence from... more Duverger’s Law expects two-party competition in single member districts (SMDs), but evidence from mixed member systems is less consistent with these theoretical expectations. Rather than simply focusing on whether Japan’s most recent House of Representatives election converges toward Duvergerian equilibrium, this article focuses on three factors within Japan. In particular, how do the roles of major party nominations, incumbency, and dual-listing shape district competition vis-a`-vis Duverger? Empirical results find that the lack of a Democratic Party of Japan candidate decreases the effective number of candidates, while the lack of a Liberal Democratic Party candidate, multiple incumbents, and dual listing correlates with an increased number of candidates. The results suggest that often ignored underlying effects of Japan’s mixed system influences its consistency with theoretical expectations.
As publishing demands increase, so does the availability of open access predatory publishing opti... more As publishing demands increase, so does the availability of open access predatory publishing options masquerading as reputable peer-review outlets. This article cautions against the broader consequences of predatory publishing and suggests means to control their influence.
Political unrest in 2014 threatened Lesotho's newly found democratic stability. Observers focus o... more Political unrest in 2014 threatened Lesotho's newly found democratic stability. Observers focus on educating the public about the electoral system and encouraging pre-election coalition discussions. However, this analysis suggests that such remedies ignore the institutional influences of Lesotho's electoral system that undermine both public understanding and stability. Furthermore, a statistical analysis of district competition finds the 2015 elections to be largely consistent with previous elections, but that the percentage of rejected ballots correlates with a district victory for the largest party. Although this may simply be a statistical anomaly, the findings highlight structural challenges and reconsideration of electoral reforms.
To what extent do electoral institutions influence positions on same-sex marriage? Debates over s... more To what extent do electoral institutions influence positions on same-sex marriage? Debates over same-sex marriage legislation have increased globally for the past 20 years, yet little research focuses on either debates in East Asia or the affect of electoral institutions. Using an original dataset on Taiwanese legislators and their public stances on same-sex marriage, this research finds that legislators elected under proportional representation (PR) are consistently more likely to support same-sex marriage laws than their counterparts elected in single-member districts (SMDs), even after controlling for partisanship. The results here not only highlight overlooked institutional influences on support, but also tie the broader literature on mixed-member systems to the growing research on same-sex marriage rights.
How do scammers invoke trust within the Nigerian email scam and how do recipients interpret such ... more How do scammers invoke trust within the Nigerian email scam and how do recipients interpret such trust-laden offers? Rather than view the email content as static, this article suggests that the emails strategically appeal to trust as a means to enhance susceptibility. Content analysis of over a half-million scam emails reveals that references to trust language are most common in larger award claims and those claiming to be from Africa. However, experimental evidence suggests that trust language within scam letters has minimal influence on respondents' perceptions of the letter. This analysis expands our understanding of the psychology behind the scam letter format and suggests means to further combat email fraud.
Fenno's Paradox—the preference for one's own legislator while disliking the legislature as a whol... more Fenno's Paradox—the preference for one's own legislator while disliking the legislature as a whole— remains one of the most consistent findings in American politics. This tendency increases the likelihood for incumbents to win reelection, despite being a part of a less popular institution. Little analysis looks at whether Fenno's Paradox exists outside of the US in other legislative contexts, or whether incumbency itself or partisan identification is the larger influence. Using 2012 survey data from Taiwan, a mixed member system, this analysis examines individual level divergence between preference for a legislator and institutional preference. Consistent with work in American politics, we find a marginal incumbency advantage, but this effect is attenuated by the partisanship of the district legislator.
Asian Journal of Political Science, 2015
Diplomatic recognition is generally seen as fundamental to the modern state system. The tradition... more Diplomatic recognition is generally seen as fundamental to the modern state system. The traditional views of recognition however focus almost exclusively on political or ideological rationales, ignoring other foundations on which other countries base establishing diplomatic recognition. Focusing on the Republic of China (Taiwan) suggests a more complicated view where economic self-interest on one side and national pride on the other may undermine traditional conceptions of recognition.
How do institutional factors shape district competition in mixed legislative systems? Preliminary... more How do institutional factors shape district competition in mixed legislative systems? Preliminary evidence suggests the distinction between sub-types of mixed systems alone poorly explains variation in district results. Consistent with the contamination thesis, this analysis suggests three additional nationallevel factors at play: fused ballots, the electoral threshold for proportional representation seats, and the existence of compulsory voting laws. Regression analysis on an original dataset covering 90 mixed system elections in 23 countries finds that while mixed member majoritarian systems correlate with fewer district candidates, these three often overlooked factors are also statistically significant. This analysis highlights the complexity of mixed systems and suggests why many of them diverge from Duverger's Law.
Although two-vote mixed legislative systems have proliferated globally, the factors contributing ... more Although two-vote mixed legislative systems have proliferated globally, the factors contributing to split-ticketing in these cases remains poorly understood. Using survey data regarding South Korea's 2008 National Assembly election, this article addresses two questions: Is ticket-splitting in two-vote legislative systems influenced by the timing of one's vote decision and are late deciders more or less rational in their decision to ticketsplit than early deciders? Empirical analysis finds that split-ticket voting under various specifications is more likely to be carried out by late deciders. Among split-ticket voters, however, late deciders are more likely to irrationally split their vote.
What motivates people to vote strategically? Although a broad literature addresses this question,... more What motivates people to vote strategically? Although a broad literature addresses this question, few studies capture the point at which individuals shift from sincere to strategic voters. Furthermore, the infl uence of polling information remains debated. The analysis in this article tackles strategic voting with an original embedded experiment in a web survey. Empirical analysis fi nds that respondents who were told of the margin of error in preelection polls were more likely to vote strategically. This analysis also suggests the limits to strategic voting even in ideal settings.
Legislative Studies Quarterly, 2014
How do mixed-member legislative systems influence legislator voting? While the literature remains... more How do mixed-member legislative systems influence legislator voting? While the literature remains inconclusive, this article suggests party influence as an intervening variable. Through an analysis of roll-call data from Taiwan and Korea, no deviation is evident between district legislators and legislators elected by proportional representation.
Journal of Asian and African Studies, 2013
This paper addresses the effects of the mixed system used for the last three elections in Lesotho... more This paper addresses the effects of the mixed system used for the last three elections in Lesotho (2002, 2007 and 2012), a small African country with a turbulent history regarding opposition acceptance of elections. The decision to implement a mixed system was in part to encourage democratic stability, yet whether the electoral system has become more conducive to democratic competition is unclear. Through an analysis of national and district-level results, this paper addresses the following questions. First, at the district level, is competition consistent with Duverger’s law or the contamination thesis and is a progression over time evident? Second, does the population size of a district influence the number of candidates and the concentration of votes? Finally, following recent research on detecting electoral fraud, this paper tackles whether the reports of district results suggest extra-institutional manipulation.
What influences the timing of vote choices in mixed-member systems and to what extent does this i... more What influences the timing of vote choices in mixed-member systems and to what extent does this influence split-ticketing voting? Although voters cast both ballots in effect simultaneously, they may make their decisions on which candidate and party to support sequentially. Using Japan’s 2012 election as a case study, empirical analyses find that the district nominations influence the timing of one’s district vote intention. Meanwhile the timing of vote choices corresponds with ticket-splitting, even after controlling for partisan and socio-economic factors.
What influences the timing of vote choices in mixed-member systems and to what extent does this i... more What influences the timing of vote choices in mixed-member systems and to what extent does this influence split-ticketing voting? Although voters cast both ballots in effect simultaneously, they may make their decisions on which candidate and party to support sequentially. Using Japan’s 2012 election as a case study, empirical analyses find that the district nominations influence the timing of one’s district vote intention. Meanwhile the timing of vote choices corresponds with ticket-splitting, even after controlling for partisan and socio-economic factors.
The literature on losers' consent identifies clear distinctions in perceptions of democracy betwe... more The literature on losers' consent identifies clear distinctions in perceptions of democracy between electoral losers and winners. However, little of the literature addresses the complexities of mixed member electoral systems or compares this winner–loser divergence to that of non-voters. An analysis of post-election surveys in Germany in 2009 and 2013 allows for a disaggregation of types of losers and non-voters. Results find that voting for a district candidate from a losing party has a greater effect on perceptions than voting for a losing party in the proportional representation tier, while losing in both appeared to slow the decline in positive evaluations of the system. Meanwhile clear distinctions between perceptions of different types of non-voters emerge.
Why does Mexico’s mixed legislative system diverge from Duverger’s Law? Rather than rehash cultur... more Why does Mexico’s mixed legislative system diverge from Duverger’s Law? Rather than rehash cultural and historical explanations, we suggest two institutional factors – a fused ballot and compulsory voting laws – may explain this divergence. Cross-national evidence controlling for these factors suggests Mexico is not an outlier and that the fused ballot encourages multiparty district competition. The results also suggest ways reforms could bring competition closer toward Duvergerian expectations.
Public support for gay and lesbian rights has increased in Western democracies, yet less is known... more Public support for gay and lesbian rights has increased in Western democracies, yet less is known regarding views in South Korea or East Asia more broadly. Rather than broad cultural claims, this analysis asks to what extent religious identification explains perceptions of gays and
lesbians. Public opinion survey data from South Korea finds that Protestants were consistently less supportive of homosexual issues compared to Catholics, Buddhists, and those without a religious identification. Furthermore, after controlling for religion, identification with the largest conservative party associated with less support.
Duverger’s Law expects two-party competition in single member districts (SMDs), but evidence from... more Duverger’s Law expects two-party competition in single member districts (SMDs), but evidence from mixed member systems is less consistent with these theoretical expectations. Rather than simply focusing on whether Japan’s most recent House of Representatives election converges toward Duvergerian equilibrium, this article focuses on three factors within Japan. In particular, how do the roles of major party nominations, incumbency, and dual-listing shape district competition vis-a`-vis Duverger? Empirical results find that the lack of a Democratic Party of Japan candidate decreases the effective number of candidates, while the lack of a Liberal Democratic Party candidate, multiple incumbents, and dual listing correlates with an increased number of candidates. The results suggest that often ignored underlying effects of Japan’s mixed system influences its consistency with theoretical expectations.
As publishing demands increase, so does the availability of open access predatory publishing opti... more As publishing demands increase, so does the availability of open access predatory publishing options masquerading as reputable peer-review outlets. This article cautions against the broader consequences of predatory publishing and suggests means to control their influence.
Political unrest in 2014 threatened Lesotho's newly found democratic stability. Observers focus o... more Political unrest in 2014 threatened Lesotho's newly found democratic stability. Observers focus on educating the public about the electoral system and encouraging pre-election coalition discussions. However, this analysis suggests that such remedies ignore the institutional influences of Lesotho's electoral system that undermine both public understanding and stability. Furthermore, a statistical analysis of district competition finds the 2015 elections to be largely consistent with previous elections, but that the percentage of rejected ballots correlates with a district victory for the largest party. Although this may simply be a statistical anomaly, the findings highlight structural challenges and reconsideration of electoral reforms.
To what extent do electoral institutions influence positions on same-sex marriage? Debates over s... more To what extent do electoral institutions influence positions on same-sex marriage? Debates over same-sex marriage legislation have increased globally for the past 20 years, yet little research focuses on either debates in East Asia or the affect of electoral institutions. Using an original dataset on Taiwanese legislators and their public stances on same-sex marriage, this research finds that legislators elected under proportional representation (PR) are consistently more likely to support same-sex marriage laws than their counterparts elected in single-member districts (SMDs), even after controlling for partisanship. The results here not only highlight overlooked institutional influences on support, but also tie the broader literature on mixed-member systems to the growing research on same-sex marriage rights.
How do scammers invoke trust within the Nigerian email scam and how do recipients interpret such ... more How do scammers invoke trust within the Nigerian email scam and how do recipients interpret such trust-laden offers? Rather than view the email content as static, this article suggests that the emails strategically appeal to trust as a means to enhance susceptibility. Content analysis of over a half-million scam emails reveals that references to trust language are most common in larger award claims and those claiming to be from Africa. However, experimental evidence suggests that trust language within scam letters has minimal influence on respondents' perceptions of the letter. This analysis expands our understanding of the psychology behind the scam letter format and suggests means to further combat email fraud.
Fenno's Paradox—the preference for one's own legislator while disliking the legislature as a whol... more Fenno's Paradox—the preference for one's own legislator while disliking the legislature as a whole— remains one of the most consistent findings in American politics. This tendency increases the likelihood for incumbents to win reelection, despite being a part of a less popular institution. Little analysis looks at whether Fenno's Paradox exists outside of the US in other legislative contexts, or whether incumbency itself or partisan identification is the larger influence. Using 2012 survey data from Taiwan, a mixed member system, this analysis examines individual level divergence between preference for a legislator and institutional preference. Consistent with work in American politics, we find a marginal incumbency advantage, but this effect is attenuated by the partisanship of the district legislator.
Asian Journal of Political Science, 2015
Diplomatic recognition is generally seen as fundamental to the modern state system. The tradition... more Diplomatic recognition is generally seen as fundamental to the modern state system. The traditional views of recognition however focus almost exclusively on political or ideological rationales, ignoring other foundations on which other countries base establishing diplomatic recognition. Focusing on the Republic of China (Taiwan) suggests a more complicated view where economic self-interest on one side and national pride on the other may undermine traditional conceptions of recognition.
How do institutional factors shape district competition in mixed legislative systems? Preliminary... more How do institutional factors shape district competition in mixed legislative systems? Preliminary evidence suggests the distinction between sub-types of mixed systems alone poorly explains variation in district results. Consistent with the contamination thesis, this analysis suggests three additional nationallevel factors at play: fused ballots, the electoral threshold for proportional representation seats, and the existence of compulsory voting laws. Regression analysis on an original dataset covering 90 mixed system elections in 23 countries finds that while mixed member majoritarian systems correlate with fewer district candidates, these three often overlooked factors are also statistically significant. This analysis highlights the complexity of mixed systems and suggests why many of them diverge from Duverger's Law.
Although two-vote mixed legislative systems have proliferated globally, the factors contributing ... more Although two-vote mixed legislative systems have proliferated globally, the factors contributing to split-ticketing in these cases remains poorly understood. Using survey data regarding South Korea's 2008 National Assembly election, this article addresses two questions: Is ticket-splitting in two-vote legislative systems influenced by the timing of one's vote decision and are late deciders more or less rational in their decision to ticketsplit than early deciders? Empirical analysis finds that split-ticket voting under various specifications is more likely to be carried out by late deciders. Among split-ticket voters, however, late deciders are more likely to irrationally split their vote.
What motivates people to vote strategically? Although a broad literature addresses this question,... more What motivates people to vote strategically? Although a broad literature addresses this question, few studies capture the point at which individuals shift from sincere to strategic voters. Furthermore, the infl uence of polling information remains debated. The analysis in this article tackles strategic voting with an original embedded experiment in a web survey. Empirical analysis fi nds that respondents who were told of the margin of error in preelection polls were more likely to vote strategically. This analysis also suggests the limits to strategic voting even in ideal settings.
Legislative Studies Quarterly, 2014
How do mixed-member legislative systems influence legislator voting? While the literature remains... more How do mixed-member legislative systems influence legislator voting? While the literature remains inconclusive, this article suggests party influence as an intervening variable. Through an analysis of roll-call data from Taiwan and Korea, no deviation is evident between district legislators and legislators elected by proportional representation.