Andrzej Polus | University of Wroclaw (original) (raw)
Papers by Andrzej Polus
African affairs, Apr 3, 2024
This publication is one of the results of a conference organised in Lisbon in 2011 on the theme o... more This publication is one of the results of a conference organised in Lisbon in 2011 on the theme of African borders and their relationships with migration and mobility. The selected papers are a sample of the diverse perspectives on the general theme presented at the meeting. The African Borderlands Research Network (ABORNE) promoted this event, allowing a substantial number of its members to exchange results of ongoing and long-term research. The Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portugal) funded the research project Borders and Identity in Africa (PTDC/AFR/098339/2008) which prepared this publication
International political economy series, Dec 31, 2022
Journal of modern African studies/Journal of Modern African studies, Dec 1, 2023
Inspired by Bourdieu's field theory and utilising the case of Zambia, this article aims t... more Inspired by Bourdieu's field theory and utilising the case of Zambia, this article aims to enhance the understanding of the intricate relationship between Chinese private investors and sub-Saharan state institutions. The study proposes an epistemological framework that integrates sociological, anthropological and neo-institutional approaches to development studies. Through extensive fieldwork and over 75 interviews with both Chinese and Zambian stakeholders, we explore various contexts in which group-actors related to foreign capital in Zambia operate. We argue that three separate habiti – inhabited by the Zambian political class, Chinese investors and ‘ordinary’ Zambians – are crucial for comprehending private foreign capital operations in this sub-Saharan state. The ordinary Zambians and Zambian political class fields converge primarily during elections, while interactions between ordinary Zambians and Chinese investors have remained very limited (predominantly employee–employer relations), creating an ideational structure of hostility. In contrast, the Zambian political class and Chinese private investor fields crosscut and are mutually constitutive.
Athenaeum, 2022
* Artykuł jest wynikiem realizacji projektu Narodowego Centrum Nauki, pt. Strategie wyrównywania ... more * Artykuł jest wynikiem realizacji projektu Narodowego Centrum Nauki, pt. Strategie wyrównywania szans w państwach post-apartheidowych. Analiza porównawcza, UMO 2017/25B/HS5/00929.
The Political Economy of Chinese FDI and Spillover Effects in Africa
Politeja
AN IMPOSSIBLE SYNTHESIS? THE CONFIRMATION HOLISM AND THEORETICAL DISCOURSE IN INTERNATIONAL RELAT... more AN IMPOSSIBLE SYNTHESIS? THE CONFIRMATION HOLISM AND THEORETICAL DISCOURSE IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS In the authors’ opinion, the negative impact on the development of International Relations (IR) was exerted by the way of conducting the discourse, which we refer to as Popperism and which was expressed by the so-called “interparadigm” debates. At the root of Popperism there is the assumption that one observation that contradicts the predictions of a given theory may be the basis for its refutation. Moreover, it has become common practice to reject one theory on the basis of another. An alternative is proposed in the text - a Duhemian way of conducting discourse based on the principle of confirmation holism. One of the main principles of confirmation of holism, based on the principle of weak falsificationism (as opposed to Popper’s strong falsificationism) is the assumption that due to the subjective nature of science, theories cannot be finally confirmed or rejected. Moreover, the ...
Politeja , 2022
In the authors’ opinion, the negative impact on the development of International Relations (IR) w... more In the authors’ opinion, the negative impact on the development of International Relations (IR) was exerted by the way of conducting the discourse, which we refer to as Popperism and which was expressed by the so-called “interparadigm” debates. At the root of Popperism there is the assumption that one observation that contradicts the predictions of a given theory may be the basis for its refutation. Moreover, it has become common practice to reject one theory on the basis
of another. An alternative is proposed in the text - a Duhemian way of conducting discourse based on the principle of confirmation holism. One of the main principles of confirmation of holism, based on the principle of weak falsificationism (as opposed to Popper’s strong falsificationism) is the assumption that due to the subjective nature of science, theories cannot be finally confirmed or rejected. Moreover, the assumptions of one theory cannot serve as a ground for disproving another. The authors of the article point out that the application of the confirmation holism can positively impact research practice in IR and contribute to the development of the discipline.
The primary objective of this paper is to assess whether Namibia is ready to become an oil produc... more The primary objective of this paper is to assess whether Namibia is ready to become an oil producer. The geological estimates suggest that the country may possess the equivalent of as many as 11 billion barrels of crude oil. If the numbers are correct, Namibia would be sitting on the second-largest oil reserves in sub-Saharan Africa, and exploitation could start as soon as 2017. This clearly raises the question of whether Namibia is next in line to become a victim of the notorious "resource curse." On the basis of critical discourse analysis and findings from field research, the authors have selected six dimensions of the resource curse and contextualised them within the spheres of Namibian politics and economy. While Namibia still faces a number of important challenges, our findings offer little evidence that the oil will have particularly disruptive effects.
Badanie polityki zagranicznej państwa. Stany Zjednoczone, Azja Wschodnia, Bliski Wschód & Ameryka Łacińska, 2017
Relacje międzynarodowe mające miejsce w Afryce Subsaharyjskiej od zawsze wymykały się ujęciom w r... more Relacje międzynarodowe mające miejsce w Afryce Subsaharyjskiej od zawsze wymykały się ujęciom w ramach tradycyjnych teorii stosunków międzynarodowych 1 . Sytuacja ta może być skorelowana z pojawiającymi się od kilku lat postulatami konieczności tworzenia nie--zachodnich teorii stosunków międzynarodowych, które w "lepszy" sposób dokonywałyby konceptualizacji interakcji mających miejsce na tzw. Globalnym Południu 2 . W tradycyjnych podejściach Afryka Subsaharyjska zazwyczaj prezentowana bywa jako sub-system systemu światowego, jednakże bez możliwości wywierania wpływu na świat zewnętrzny. Analiza literatury przedmiotu wykazuje, że najbardziej spójne epistemologicznie podejście do roli i pozycji tego regionu w stosunkach międzynarodowych prezentowane jest przez nurty neomarksistowskie. Kluczowym czasopismem, w którym znaleźć można zbiór poglądów prezentujących systemowe uwarunkowania peryferialnego usytuowania państw afrykańskich w międzynarodowym podziale pracy i wynikające z tego faktu wieloaspektowe konsekwencje polityczne jest "Review of African Political Economy". Lata strukturalnych programów dostosowawczych (SAP), ugruntowały postrzeganie Afryki Subsaharyjskiej jako swoistego laboratorium polityki międzynarodowej, w którym testowane były różnorodne, narzucane z zewnątrz, rozwiązania gospodarczo-polityczne, które z perspektywy neomarksistowskiej miały na celu utrzymanie peryferyjnej pozycji Afryki w gospodarce-świecie. Co więcej, szczególnie w stosunku do państw położonych na południe od Sahary w literaturze przedmiotu zaznaczane jest, że globalizacja (jakkolwiek defi-Artykuł jest efektem realizacji projektu badawczego Weryfikacja hipotezy klątwy surowcowej w Afryce Subsaharyjskiej. Przypadek Tanzanii, finansowanego przez Narodowe Centrum Nauki w ramach umowy -UMO-2015/17/B/HS5/00473
Wrocławskie Studia Politologiczne, 2022
Polish Political Science Review, 2020
Social constructivism is not among the most popular theoretical approaches used in forecasting in... more Social constructivism is not among the most popular theoretical approaches used in forecasting in International Relations. The article argues that constructivism suffers from the same limitations as any other paradigm in IR, therefore, there is no reason to exclude this theory from forecasting effort. In this paper, social constructivism is perceived to offer a new conceptual framework for sound and robust projections of the future. The core of our concept is constituted by the term of collective habitus. Habitus is a relatively stable, yet mutable social structure that can enable deliberations about future. It is based on a long-term history study programme of the School of Annales, as we identify long lasting habits-like patterns of behaviours among IR actors.
W tekście podejmujemy próbę odpowiedzi na jedno z kluczowych pytań z zakresu studiów nad globalny... more W tekście podejmujemy próbę odpowiedzi na jedno z kluczowych pytań z zakresu studiów nad globalnym ładem międzynarodowym – czy pandemia COVID 19 jest katalizatorem upadku Zachodu na arenie międzynarodowej? Artykuł jest napisany z perspektywy społecznokonstruktywistycznej, zaś w centrum naszych rozważań znajduje się zagadnienie kryzysu zaufania do wiedzy naukowej. Założyliśmy, że to właśnie bezprecedensowa w dziejach ludzkości przewaga cywilizacji zachodniej w zakresie tworzenia i weryfikowania wiedzy zapewniła jej dominującą pozycję w świecie. Obecnie, poza bezpośrednio obserwowalną konfrontacją na polach gospodarczych i politycznych ma miejsce niedostrzegany kryzys zaufania do wiedzy. Argumentujemy za tym, że mająca obecnie miejsce w stosunkach międzynarodowych „ucieczka od rozumu”, przejawia się w globalnej „tragedii wspólnego pastwiska”, zaś fundamentalne dla pozycji Zachodu w stosunkach międzynarodowych zaufanie do wiedzy ulega rozkładowi, co ma przełożenie na tezę o osłabianiu ...
Politeja, 2016
The main objective of this study is to examine the developments of political and economic relatio... more The main objective of this study is to examine the developments of political and economic relations between Poland and Sub-Saharan Africa. The article is written from the Polish perspective. The author is fully aware that the perception of Sub-Saharan Africa as a homogeneous region must result in multiple oversimplifications. However, an analysis of the Polish "African discourse" indicates that political and business elites are not aware of the heterogeneity of the continent and the latter is perceived as a "single unit". The article demonstrates that after the eastward enlargement of the European Union in 2004 Poland realized its principal goal of foreign policy and did not attempt to redefine its role and place in international relations in terms of its potential and assets. Since 2013, the relations between Poland and Sub-Saharan states have been intensified, but it is everything but clear whether it will become a permanent trend.
Politeja, 2016
Land reform in Western Cape Province in Republic of South Africa The principal aim of this paper ... more Land reform in Western Cape Province in Republic of South Africa The principal aim of this paper is to critically examine the issue of land reform in Western Cape Province in Republic of South Africa. This paper is based primarily on discourse analyses and field research conducted in the Stellenbosch region in May 2015. Article is divided into five parts. The first part presents research questions and research techniques as well as author’s epistemological orientation. In the second part the general issue of land market in SSA was raised in order to put South African case into a continental and regional contexts. The next part is devoted to the developments of land reform in RSA and analyses of South African political discourse on land reform. The next part presents the results of field research in Western Cape Province. The last part concludes.
African affairs, Apr 3, 2024
This publication is one of the results of a conference organised in Lisbon in 2011 on the theme o... more This publication is one of the results of a conference organised in Lisbon in 2011 on the theme of African borders and their relationships with migration and mobility. The selected papers are a sample of the diverse perspectives on the general theme presented at the meeting. The African Borderlands Research Network (ABORNE) promoted this event, allowing a substantial number of its members to exchange results of ongoing and long-term research. The Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portugal) funded the research project Borders and Identity in Africa (PTDC/AFR/098339/2008) which prepared this publication
International political economy series, Dec 31, 2022
Journal of modern African studies/Journal of Modern African studies, Dec 1, 2023
Inspired by Bourdieu's field theory and utilising the case of Zambia, this article aims t... more Inspired by Bourdieu's field theory and utilising the case of Zambia, this article aims to enhance the understanding of the intricate relationship between Chinese private investors and sub-Saharan state institutions. The study proposes an epistemological framework that integrates sociological, anthropological and neo-institutional approaches to development studies. Through extensive fieldwork and over 75 interviews with both Chinese and Zambian stakeholders, we explore various contexts in which group-actors related to foreign capital in Zambia operate. We argue that three separate habiti – inhabited by the Zambian political class, Chinese investors and ‘ordinary’ Zambians – are crucial for comprehending private foreign capital operations in this sub-Saharan state. The ordinary Zambians and Zambian political class fields converge primarily during elections, while interactions between ordinary Zambians and Chinese investors have remained very limited (predominantly employee–employer relations), creating an ideational structure of hostility. In contrast, the Zambian political class and Chinese private investor fields crosscut and are mutually constitutive.
Athenaeum, 2022
* Artykuł jest wynikiem realizacji projektu Narodowego Centrum Nauki, pt. Strategie wyrównywania ... more * Artykuł jest wynikiem realizacji projektu Narodowego Centrum Nauki, pt. Strategie wyrównywania szans w państwach post-apartheidowych. Analiza porównawcza, UMO 2017/25B/HS5/00929.
The Political Economy of Chinese FDI and Spillover Effects in Africa
Politeja
AN IMPOSSIBLE SYNTHESIS? THE CONFIRMATION HOLISM AND THEORETICAL DISCOURSE IN INTERNATIONAL RELAT... more AN IMPOSSIBLE SYNTHESIS? THE CONFIRMATION HOLISM AND THEORETICAL DISCOURSE IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS In the authors’ opinion, the negative impact on the development of International Relations (IR) was exerted by the way of conducting the discourse, which we refer to as Popperism and which was expressed by the so-called “interparadigm” debates. At the root of Popperism there is the assumption that one observation that contradicts the predictions of a given theory may be the basis for its refutation. Moreover, it has become common practice to reject one theory on the basis of another. An alternative is proposed in the text - a Duhemian way of conducting discourse based on the principle of confirmation holism. One of the main principles of confirmation of holism, based on the principle of weak falsificationism (as opposed to Popper’s strong falsificationism) is the assumption that due to the subjective nature of science, theories cannot be finally confirmed or rejected. Moreover, the ...
Politeja , 2022
In the authors’ opinion, the negative impact on the development of International Relations (IR) w... more In the authors’ opinion, the negative impact on the development of International Relations (IR) was exerted by the way of conducting the discourse, which we refer to as Popperism and which was expressed by the so-called “interparadigm” debates. At the root of Popperism there is the assumption that one observation that contradicts the predictions of a given theory may be the basis for its refutation. Moreover, it has become common practice to reject one theory on the basis
of another. An alternative is proposed in the text - a Duhemian way of conducting discourse based on the principle of confirmation holism. One of the main principles of confirmation of holism, based on the principle of weak falsificationism (as opposed to Popper’s strong falsificationism) is the assumption that due to the subjective nature of science, theories cannot be finally confirmed or rejected. Moreover, the assumptions of one theory cannot serve as a ground for disproving another. The authors of the article point out that the application of the confirmation holism can positively impact research practice in IR and contribute to the development of the discipline.
The primary objective of this paper is to assess whether Namibia is ready to become an oil produc... more The primary objective of this paper is to assess whether Namibia is ready to become an oil producer. The geological estimates suggest that the country may possess the equivalent of as many as 11 billion barrels of crude oil. If the numbers are correct, Namibia would be sitting on the second-largest oil reserves in sub-Saharan Africa, and exploitation could start as soon as 2017. This clearly raises the question of whether Namibia is next in line to become a victim of the notorious "resource curse." On the basis of critical discourse analysis and findings from field research, the authors have selected six dimensions of the resource curse and contextualised them within the spheres of Namibian politics and economy. While Namibia still faces a number of important challenges, our findings offer little evidence that the oil will have particularly disruptive effects.
Badanie polityki zagranicznej państwa. Stany Zjednoczone, Azja Wschodnia, Bliski Wschód & Ameryka Łacińska, 2017
Relacje międzynarodowe mające miejsce w Afryce Subsaharyjskiej od zawsze wymykały się ujęciom w r... more Relacje międzynarodowe mające miejsce w Afryce Subsaharyjskiej od zawsze wymykały się ujęciom w ramach tradycyjnych teorii stosunków międzynarodowych 1 . Sytuacja ta może być skorelowana z pojawiającymi się od kilku lat postulatami konieczności tworzenia nie--zachodnich teorii stosunków międzynarodowych, które w "lepszy" sposób dokonywałyby konceptualizacji interakcji mających miejsce na tzw. Globalnym Południu 2 . W tradycyjnych podejściach Afryka Subsaharyjska zazwyczaj prezentowana bywa jako sub-system systemu światowego, jednakże bez możliwości wywierania wpływu na świat zewnętrzny. Analiza literatury przedmiotu wykazuje, że najbardziej spójne epistemologicznie podejście do roli i pozycji tego regionu w stosunkach międzynarodowych prezentowane jest przez nurty neomarksistowskie. Kluczowym czasopismem, w którym znaleźć można zbiór poglądów prezentujących systemowe uwarunkowania peryferialnego usytuowania państw afrykańskich w międzynarodowym podziale pracy i wynikające z tego faktu wieloaspektowe konsekwencje polityczne jest "Review of African Political Economy". Lata strukturalnych programów dostosowawczych (SAP), ugruntowały postrzeganie Afryki Subsaharyjskiej jako swoistego laboratorium polityki międzynarodowej, w którym testowane były różnorodne, narzucane z zewnątrz, rozwiązania gospodarczo-polityczne, które z perspektywy neomarksistowskiej miały na celu utrzymanie peryferyjnej pozycji Afryki w gospodarce-świecie. Co więcej, szczególnie w stosunku do państw położonych na południe od Sahary w literaturze przedmiotu zaznaczane jest, że globalizacja (jakkolwiek defi-Artykuł jest efektem realizacji projektu badawczego Weryfikacja hipotezy klątwy surowcowej w Afryce Subsaharyjskiej. Przypadek Tanzanii, finansowanego przez Narodowe Centrum Nauki w ramach umowy -UMO-2015/17/B/HS5/00473
Wrocławskie Studia Politologiczne, 2022
Polish Political Science Review, 2020
Social constructivism is not among the most popular theoretical approaches used in forecasting in... more Social constructivism is not among the most popular theoretical approaches used in forecasting in International Relations. The article argues that constructivism suffers from the same limitations as any other paradigm in IR, therefore, there is no reason to exclude this theory from forecasting effort. In this paper, social constructivism is perceived to offer a new conceptual framework for sound and robust projections of the future. The core of our concept is constituted by the term of collective habitus. Habitus is a relatively stable, yet mutable social structure that can enable deliberations about future. It is based on a long-term history study programme of the School of Annales, as we identify long lasting habits-like patterns of behaviours among IR actors.
W tekście podejmujemy próbę odpowiedzi na jedno z kluczowych pytań z zakresu studiów nad globalny... more W tekście podejmujemy próbę odpowiedzi na jedno z kluczowych pytań z zakresu studiów nad globalnym ładem międzynarodowym – czy pandemia COVID 19 jest katalizatorem upadku Zachodu na arenie międzynarodowej? Artykuł jest napisany z perspektywy społecznokonstruktywistycznej, zaś w centrum naszych rozważań znajduje się zagadnienie kryzysu zaufania do wiedzy naukowej. Założyliśmy, że to właśnie bezprecedensowa w dziejach ludzkości przewaga cywilizacji zachodniej w zakresie tworzenia i weryfikowania wiedzy zapewniła jej dominującą pozycję w świecie. Obecnie, poza bezpośrednio obserwowalną konfrontacją na polach gospodarczych i politycznych ma miejsce niedostrzegany kryzys zaufania do wiedzy. Argumentujemy za tym, że mająca obecnie miejsce w stosunkach międzynarodowych „ucieczka od rozumu”, przejawia się w globalnej „tragedii wspólnego pastwiska”, zaś fundamentalne dla pozycji Zachodu w stosunkach międzynarodowych zaufanie do wiedzy ulega rozkładowi, co ma przełożenie na tezę o osłabianiu ...
Politeja, 2016
The main objective of this study is to examine the developments of political and economic relatio... more The main objective of this study is to examine the developments of political and economic relations between Poland and Sub-Saharan Africa. The article is written from the Polish perspective. The author is fully aware that the perception of Sub-Saharan Africa as a homogeneous region must result in multiple oversimplifications. However, an analysis of the Polish "African discourse" indicates that political and business elites are not aware of the heterogeneity of the continent and the latter is perceived as a "single unit". The article demonstrates that after the eastward enlargement of the European Union in 2004 Poland realized its principal goal of foreign policy and did not attempt to redefine its role and place in international relations in terms of its potential and assets. Since 2013, the relations between Poland and Sub-Saharan states have been intensified, but it is everything but clear whether it will become a permanent trend.
Politeja, 2016
Land reform in Western Cape Province in Republic of South Africa The principal aim of this paper ... more Land reform in Western Cape Province in Republic of South Africa The principal aim of this paper is to critically examine the issue of land reform in Western Cape Province in Republic of South Africa. This paper is based primarily on discourse analyses and field research conducted in the Stellenbosch region in May 2015. Article is divided into five parts. The first part presents research questions and research techniques as well as author’s epistemological orientation. In the second part the general issue of land market in SSA was raised in order to put South African case into a continental and regional contexts. The next part is devoted to the developments of land reform in RSA and analyses of South African political discourse on land reform. The next part presents the results of field research in Western Cape Province. The last part concludes.
SOCJOLOGIA SPORTU to kompendium wiedzy o często pomijanym w naukach społecznych, ale niezwykle wa... more SOCJOLOGIA SPORTU to kompendium wiedzy o często pomijanym w naukach społecznych, ale niezwykle ważnym obszarze badań nad społecznymi aspektami sportu. Autorzy objęli swoimi rozważaniami niemal wszystkie aspekty współczesnej refleksji nad sportem, dzięki czemu mamy do czynienia z pracą nie tylko nowatorską, ale i kompleksową. Książka oferuje dobrze usystematyzowaną analizę sportu jako pola badawczego, sprawozdając nie tylko to, co dotychczas dokonało się w różnych jego częściach, ale również wskazując na potencjalne tropy. Autorzy definiują problemy, relacjonują najważniejsze wątki badawcze, a nade wszystko przywracają sport poważnej refleksji naukowej.
Emocje, płeć, zwierzęta, doping, religia, technologia, media – to tylko kilka z kluczowych kategorii, w świetle których można oglądać sport.
Fatal Transactions to termin określający transakcje, dotyczące szeroko pojętego procesu wydobycia... more Fatal Transactions to termin określający transakcje, dotyczące szeroko pojętego procesu wydobycia i handlu surowcami naturalnymi pochodzącymi z terenów Afryki, które mają negatywne, a nierzadko wręcz zgubne konsekwencje dla mieszkańców kontynentu. Taki stan rzeczy należy niewątpliwie uznać za tragiczny paradoks: zarówno intuicja, jak i teorie ekonomiczne sugerują, iż w zasobach naturalnych tkwi źródło realnego bogactwa państw. Publikacja koncentruje się na problematyce wpływu bogactw naturalnych na rozwój gospodarczy krajów afrykańskich, kondycję państw afrykańskich i ich instytucji.
The African economic path has been largely associated with the continent’s vast natural resources... more The African economic path has been largely associated with the continent’s vast natural resources. Mining and oil companies have long been flocking to the region, setting up mines, drilling wells and shipping out its wealth to the international commodity markets. This is changing now. Whereas Zambian copper, Angolan oil and Ghanaian gold have not lost their shine and keep attracting foreign investors, the international business community has begun looking at the region from a slightly different perspective. Domestic consumption and internal markets, which in the past rarely stirred investors’ imaginations, are now becoming business hotspots, and Sub-Saharan Africa has been declared the final frontier for retailers.
In the last decade, Sub-Saharan Africa has seen 4% growth in consumer spending, and according to available forecasts, this trend is not a temporary anomaly. Never before have Africans been called “consumers” on the pages of so many influential reports and official documents. The continent has seen global brands and retailers, along with small businesses and start-ups, including a growing number of firms from Central Europe, knocking on its doors on an unprecedented scale. They are all trying to tap into a potential which, for a change, is not trapped under the ground but very much above – in African consumers’ pockets. Make no mistake, the major reason for this is profit. It has been estimated that African consumer markets will inflate to nearly $1 trillion by 2020. With the African buoyant demographics and an emerging – slowly but surely – middle class, the region is poised to become many investors’ darling in the years to come
Truth be told, the “Africa rising” gospel preached by so many recently went through particularly rough waters in 2014. In fact, some commentators have already put the Africa rising narrative to sleep, calling it undeserved hype and a sheer statistical stunt. Escalation of Boko Haram’s murderous activity in Nigeria, Somalian Al-Shabaab’s recurrent attacks, the dramatic war that West Africa has been waging against Ebola, continuing instability in Central Africa – it has all captured the imagination of prospective investors and regrettably provided a blow to the notion that Africa is ripe for business and welcomes foreign investors with open arms. However, those who follow Africa more closely, including the authors of this report, are aware that such events hardly paint the continent’s business landscape in true colours. Even so, a series of sombre news events has not helped. As a result, in Central Europe many investors’ appetites for African markets have surely waned.
This report attempts to look at African consumer markets through the lenses of a potential investor from the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region. But instead of providing an overall picture, which, we believe, is redundant and not very useful when it comes to real investment decisions, it breaks down domestic consumer markets, whose size is roughly captured by the size of consumer spending, into individual sectors. This is done according to available data, courtesy of the African Development Bank, which helps understand where (into which sectors) an African consumer’s spending is channelled. This methodology is not without problems. As it is based on nominal spending and its sectoral allocation, it ends up lumping all consumers together. This implies that the strategic problem of African consume segments may not be sufficiently addressed. The report seeks to partly redress this imbalance by devoting a chapter on the middle class in Africa, whose emergence and size should inform investors’ calculations more than other income groups.
The report is structured as follows. The first part of the report discusses underlying features of the African consumer market and its future potential, such as demographics and the middle class, in order to analyse and provide a quantitative justification to the selected sectors. In the second and essential part, all the sectors that the authors identify as significant based on the available data are described. This includes, in order of appearance, the following sectors: (1) food and non-alcoholic beverages, (2) housing, electricity, gas and other fuels, (3) transport, (4) clothing and footwear, and (5) other potential sectors. Additionally, the report includes business case studies of Polish companies that have successfully entered African markets and/or appreciate their growing potential. The case studies also discuss a range of issues which Polish entrants regard as challenges and business barriers.
It should be stressed that the findings of any report are only as good as the data. Here, the report employs a complete dataset prepared by the African Development Bank. Having in mind the problem of data quality in Africa, one should approach these numbers with caution. Nevertheless, since the report uses the data only to establish spending patterns and sectoral allocation, it should not jeopardise the conclusions in any significant way even if the size of respective sectors are not entirely accurate. Another reason for caution, which this and other CEED Institute reports highlight repeatedly, is the simple truth that Africa is not a country, and the business opportunities should be explored individually (on a country level) instead of “regional lumping”. Additionally, as pointed out by Nielsen, a leading global information and measurement company, following market macro-trends and promising statistics (e.g. growing GDP and consumer base) is not enough. To be successful, companies should also put together three key pieces: who shops, where they shop and what they shop.
Moreover, looking at total consumption figures, African consumer markets are in fact dominated by a handful of countries, among which South Africa and Nigeria – two of the continent’s heavy weights – account for 51% of SSA’s total expenditure. Last but not least, the authors of this report do not wish to become simply more names on the long list of uncritical business cheerleaders, ignoring the myriad of challenges the region and individual countries in Africa are still facing. Whereas the harsh realities of many African countries and its inhabitants are fully acknowledged, the focus in this report is to track and follow African consumer spending and establish how the spending patterns may translate into business opportunities for CEE companies.
As argued in various parts of this report, companies from Central and Eastern Europe that are looking to establish (or strengthen) their international footprint should turn their eyes towards the African continent. On the one hand, Africa is considered to be the world’s last “mass consumption frontier” (it is predicted that by 2050 one out of four people will live in Africa), with consumers’ money fuelling various sectors across the continent (from food and beverages, through housing, transportation, clothing and footwear to domestic appliances, ICT and financial services – all discussed in this report). On the other hand, companies from the CEE region have experience in operating within a dynamically changing business environment – which is the state that Africa is currently in. This “wind of change”, along with the unique experience of CEE companies and evolving African consumers’ spending habits, have created an unprecedented window of opportunity for both Africa and Central and Eastern Europe.
Africa is on the move, and so is the flow of oil unearthed on the continent. In recent years, the... more Africa is on the move, and so is the flow of oil unearthed on the continent. In recent years, the region has become a hot spot on the global map of oil discoveries, with dozens of investors rushing to tap into the crude wealth which is now estimated at 130 billion barrels. This is still not very much compared to the Middle East, but the recent frenzy clearly shows that Africa has certain virtues that investors worldwide cannot resist. The region is called an oil frontier for a reason, and, like a classic frontier, it remains relatively unexplored and unexploited, with opportunities abounding. The oil industry believes that at least another 100 billion barrels are only waiting to be discovered; to some experts this is only a conservative estimate. In recent years, license-awarding rounds have been announced more frequently, with more acreage to take than anywhere in the world.
Oil has been flowing in Africa for decades, but recent events have shifted the petroleum sector’s development trajectory in many ways. Firstly, whereas West African oil used to be the region’s hallmark, now the tables have turned, and with recent oil discoveries in Uganda and Kenya, an oil bonanza is increasingly felt in the East. Having said that, as this report demonstrates, nearly half of Sub-Saharan Africa is now either producing oil or about to start production soon. Secondly, in historical terms it was oil supermajors, such as Shell or ExxonMobil, which set the rules of the game and regarded the region as their own exclusive playground. Today the majors are stepping back – both from upstream and downstream – and numerous “independents” such as Tullow Oil and Anadarko have joined the race, with plenty of projects to go around. Also, indigenous host National Oil Companies (NOC) are lining up to secure a larger share of the pie, and some, such as Sonangol, have become true heavy-weights. The industry itself has become increasingly more diverse in terms of nationality. Chinese, Indian, Malaysian, Brazilian and Russian companies are making inroads into the region in ways which make some Western companies’ efforts look rather pale. Things have changed dramatically on a technological front, as well. Whereas onshore and shallow water production were dominant modes of extraction in the past, now the industry has been constantly pushing frontiers further, with offshore deep and ultra-deep water, tarsands and heavy oil.
Africa is on the rise, and so is the heat around the continent. Researchers, business people, and... more Africa is on the rise, and so is the heat around the continent. Researchers, business people, and journalists from around the world cherish the transformation that Africa has seemingly made during the last decade. The change in narrative regarding the continent has been dramatic, from the ‘hopeless continent,’ and a ‘scar on the conscience of the Western world,’ to the ‘hopeful,’ ‘rising,’ and ‘dynamic’ continent. Africa is no longer represented by the usual face of a suffering child, but rather by the smiling face of the new middle-class.
The continent’s metamorphosis is undeniable and is likely to be enduring. According to IMF, in the upcoming five years, ten out of twenty of the fastest growing economies will be from Sub-Saharan Africa. Commodities sectors are booming, rapidly growing consumer markets are attracting new foreign investors, and returns on equity are among the world’s highest. Nevertheless, the African business landscape is still not a bed of roses. Political uncertainty, corruption, widespread red tape, weak governance, poor infrastructure, and low labour productivity all make investors wary of the current Africa frenzy. With many positive changes happening, across-the-board enthusiasm is rather misplaced. Africa is home to 56 states, an extremely heterogeneous population, GDP per capita ranging from 300 USD (Burundi) to 36,600 USD (Equatorial Guinea) and political systems ranging from authoritarian regimes (Sudan, Zimbabwe) to democracy (Ghana, Botswana). Therefore, whoever treats the African continent as a monolith, with growth embracing each and every part of it, is naïve or ignorant, or holds this view for a specific reason.
The objectives of this study are threefold. First, it seeks to present and critically discuss major economic, political, and social development trends in Sub-Saharan Africa. Secondly, it is to examine an on-going shift in Africa’s international relations with the outside world where Europe’s clout is waning and South-South co-operation is on the rise. And, lastly, it seeks to better understand the business and political practices of developing countries in Africa, and thus provide food for thought to CEE, whose business presence on the continent has been alarmingly limited.
Celem artykułu jest krytyczna analiza procesu negocjacji Umów o Partnerstwie Gospodarczym (Econom... more Celem artykułu jest krytyczna analiza procesu negocjacji Umów o Partnerstwie Gospodarczym (Economic Partnership Agreemnts, EPA) pomiędzy państwami należącymi do Wspólnoty Wschodnioafrykańskiej a Unią Europejską ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem Tanzanii. W tekście weryfikowana była tezą, że głównym celem EPA jest niedopuszczanie do zmiany usytuowania państw leżących w Afryce Wschodniej w międzynarodowym podziale pracy. Artykuł oparty jest na wynikach badań terenowych prowadzonych w Tanzanii i krytycznej analizie dyskursu dotyczącego EPA.
Politeja, 2018
Głosy w dyskusji z okrągłego stołu pt.: „Między centrum a peryferiami: ” zorganizowanego w ramach... more Głosy w dyskusji z okrągłego stołu pt.: „Między centrum a peryferiami: ” zorganizowanego w ramach VII Ogólnopolskiej Konwencji Polskiego Towarzystwa Studiów Międzynarodowych, Kraków, 9 listopada 2017 roku