Michiel van Dijk | Wageningen University (original) (raw)

Papers by Michiel van Dijk

For a transition to a food secure future, the world’s food systems will need to deliver more nutr... more For a transition to a food secure future, the world’s food systems will need to deliver more nutritious food from fewer natural resources. The research programme Global Food Security: Scarcity and Transition has been contributing to this challenge by providing tools and knowledge that can underpin policy and action on agricultural development and food security.

S Afr J Econ, 2005

This paper analyses the historical performance of the South African manufacturing sector in an in... more This paper analyses the historical performance of the South African manufacturing sector in an international perspective. After a brief overview of the industrialisation process of South Africa during the 20th century, a binary comparison of manufacturing output and productivity between South Africa and the US is presented. The industry-of-origin approach is used to construct unit value ratios (UVRs), as an alternative to the exchange range for converting US and South African output data into the same currency. Subsequently, the UVRs are used to estimate labour and total factor productivity levels for total manufacturing and 13 manufacturing branches for the period 1970-1999 in comparison to the USA. Next, these results are used to compute relative unit labour costs, which shed light on the international competitiveness of the South African manufacturing sector at a detailed level. The study is part of the International Comparisons of output and Productivity (ICOP) project carried out at the universities of Groningen and Eindhoven. We find that there exists a considerable labour and total productivity gap between the US and South Africa, which is continuously widening over time. In 1970, labour productivity stood at 32 percent of US level, while it was only 20 percent in 1999. With respect to relative unit labour costs, the results show that on average, South Africa is competitive with the USA, albeit there are some industries which show consistent relative unit labour costs above US level.

Environ Urban, Mar 16, 2011

Degit Conference Papers, Jul 1, 2005

In this paper we provide a first attempt to analyse catch up at the micro level, not possible in ... more In this paper we provide a first attempt to analyse catch up at the micro level, not possible in conventional macro-studies. The Indonesian pulp and paper industry has been selected as case-study because it experienced spectacular investment and growth, becoming one of the world's largest exporters and producers of paper in the world. We apply stochastic frontier analysis to compare technical efficiency of Indonesian paper mills with Finnish plants, which can be considered as the world technological leaders in the industry. The analysis is performed on a pooled dataset based on manufacturing census data for the period 1975-1997.

Global Food Security, 2014

Over the last decade, scenario analysis increasingly has been used to explore the main drivers af... more Over the last decade, scenario analysis increasingly has been used to explore the main drivers affecting global food supply and demand in the future. The aim of this study is to summarise, compare and evaluate global scenarios with a focus on global food security. We find that food security outcomes differ substantially and may be attributed to three main factors: (1) differences in scenario storylines and assumptions on drivers, (2) differences in the models that are employed to process the drivers and generate scenario outcomes, and (3) differences in the way and the extent to which results are reported. We also identify several ways how studies and models may be improved. This paper provides important and helpful suggestions for practitioners, but is also useful for policy-makers, who are usually the ultimate users of these scenario studies.

The aim of this study is to review the scenario literature with a particular focus on the implica... more The aim of this study is to review the scenario literature with a particular focus on the implications for global food security. In total nine major global scenario studies, published between 2000 and 2012, are covered. Four out of the nine studies focus explicitly on agriculture and the food system. Four others have a broader or different perspective (e.g. climate change, environment and ecosystems) but nonetheless include elements that are relevant for food security analysis. This study finds that all of the scenarios only deal with two of the four dimensions of food security: food availability and food accessibility, while food utilisation and stability are hardly covered. It is argued that the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) that are currently being developed as input to the upcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, might be a relevant starting point for new global scenarios for the analysis of food security issues.

Global simulation models are increasingly used to assess future scenarios and the impact of polic... more Global simulation models are increasingly used to assess future scenarios and the impact of policies related to food security, land use and climate change. A crucial element in these studies are assumptions on productivity change and technical progress, the key drivers of long-run economic growth and structural change. However, despite their importance, these assumptions are often simplistic or rather ad hoc. This paper addresses this issue by presenting sector and country specific projections for labour productivity till the year 2050 for seven economic regions in the world.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

The Netherlands can be considered as a tax haven for multinational corporations, because it delib... more The Netherlands can be considered as a tax haven for multinational corporations, because it deliberately enables these companies to reduce their tax payments in other countries. As a result, the Netherlands hosts over 10,000 subsidiaries of foreign multinationals, so called Special Financial Institutions, that are used for international tax planning constructions. Together, they control over € 1,000 billion of assets or 13% of global inward FDI stock. This includes € 90 billion in developing countries.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Project code 2271000105 LEI, part of Wageningen UR, The Hague 2 Het LEI kent de werkvelden: [DEZE... more Project code 2271000105 LEI, part of Wageningen UR, The Hague 2 Het LEI kent de werkvelden: [DEZE WORDEN DOOR BUREAUREDACTEUR INGEVOEGD]

World Development, 2014

We present an innovative global-to-local modeling approach to analyze impacts of uncertain and co... more We present an innovative global-to-local modeling approach to analyze impacts of uncertain and complex futures on Vietnam's economy via changes in land use patterns. Socio-economic changes are shown to have major implications for the Vietnamese landscape, including natural forest losses with negative consequences for biodiversity and greenhouse gas emissions, and losses of paddy rice and other agricultural lands in the Red River Delta and the Mekong River delta. Climate-related flood risks in these areas further threaten the population, economic assets, and food security. The scenarios reveal the importance of investments in agriculture, land markets, and climate change mitigation and adaptation.

World Development, 2006

In this paper, we analyze the diffusion and adoption of paper making machinery in the Indonesian ... more In this paper, we analyze the diffusion and adoption of paper making machinery in the Indonesian pulp and paper industry, from 1923 till 2000. We develop a machine level index of technological sophistication (mach), which measures the technological distance of each paper machine to the world technological frontier. The data reveal a pattern of rapid technological catch up. But catch up was not an industrywide phenomenon. Some modern firms installed state-of-the-art machinery, while others installed older vintages. The paper argues that industrial policy has played an important role in the speed and nature of diffusion of paper making machinery.

Third World Quarterly, 2009

This article discusses incoherence between tax and development policies, a relatively new area in... more This article discusses incoherence between tax and development policies, a relatively new area in the debate on policy coherence for development, using a case study of the Netherlands. Dutch business entities play a key role in tax avoidance structures of multinational corporations. We argue that the Dutch tax regime facilitates the avoidance of substantial amounts of tax revenues in developing countries when compared to the Dutch aid budget. As domestic tax revenues are an important source of financing for development, this suggests that the Dutch tax policy is incompatible with the Dutch policy on development co-operation. The lack of policy coherence is largely unintended but it has structural and political causes.

South African Journal of Economics, 2005

This paper analyses the historical performance of the South African manufacturing sector in an in... more This paper analyses the historical performance of the South African manufacturing sector in an international perspective. After a brief overview of the industrialisation process of South Africa during the 20th century, a binary comparison of manufacturing output and productivity between South Africa and the US is presented. The industry-of-origin approach is used to construct unit value ratios (UVRs), as an alternative to the exchange range for converting US and South African output data into the same currency. Subsequently, the UVRs are used to estimate labour and total factor productivity levels for total manufacturing and 13 manufacturing branches for the period 1970-1999 in comparison to the USA. Next, these results are used to compute relative unit labour costs, which shed light on the international competitiveness of the South African manufacturing sector at a detailed level. The study is part of the International Comparisons of output and Productivity (ICOP) project carried out at the universities of Groningen and Eindhoven. We find that there exists a considerable labour and total productivity gap between the US and South Africa, which is continuously widening over time. In 1970, labour productivity stood at 32 percent of US level, while it was only 20 percent in 1999. With respect to relative unit labour costs, the results show that on average, South Africa is competitive with the USA, albeit there are some industries which show consistent relative unit labour costs above US level.

Review of Income and Wealth, 2011

In this study we analyze the micro-dynamics of catch-up in Indonesian paper manufacturing, using ... more In this study we analyze the micro-dynamics of catch-up in Indonesian paper manufacturing, using a two-country plant-level dataset for the period 1975-97. We apply data envelopment analysis (DEA) to measure to what extent Indonesian paper mills are catching up with Finnish mills in terms of technical efficiency. Three questions are addressed: What is the distribution of Indonesian plant technical efficiency vis-à-vis the technological frontier? What is the role of entry, exit, and survival in Indonesia for catch-up in the paper industry as a whole? In what ways do catching-up plants in Indonesia differ from non-catching-up plants? We find that on average the Indonesian paper industry moved closer to the technological frontier during the 1990s. However, catch-up has been a highly localized process in which only a few large establishments have achieved near best-practice performance, while most other plants have stayed behind.

For a transition to a food secure future, the world’s food systems will need to deliver more nutr... more For a transition to a food secure future, the world’s food systems will need to deliver more nutritious food from fewer natural resources. The research programme Global Food Security: Scarcity and Transition has been contributing to this challenge by providing tools and knowledge that can underpin policy and action on agricultural development and food security.

S Afr J Econ, 2005

This paper analyses the historical performance of the South African manufacturing sector in an in... more This paper analyses the historical performance of the South African manufacturing sector in an international perspective. After a brief overview of the industrialisation process of South Africa during the 20th century, a binary comparison of manufacturing output and productivity between South Africa and the US is presented. The industry-of-origin approach is used to construct unit value ratios (UVRs), as an alternative to the exchange range for converting US and South African output data into the same currency. Subsequently, the UVRs are used to estimate labour and total factor productivity levels for total manufacturing and 13 manufacturing branches for the period 1970-1999 in comparison to the USA. Next, these results are used to compute relative unit labour costs, which shed light on the international competitiveness of the South African manufacturing sector at a detailed level. The study is part of the International Comparisons of output and Productivity (ICOP) project carried out at the universities of Groningen and Eindhoven. We find that there exists a considerable labour and total productivity gap between the US and South Africa, which is continuously widening over time. In 1970, labour productivity stood at 32 percent of US level, while it was only 20 percent in 1999. With respect to relative unit labour costs, the results show that on average, South Africa is competitive with the USA, albeit there are some industries which show consistent relative unit labour costs above US level.

Environ Urban, Mar 16, 2011

Degit Conference Papers, Jul 1, 2005

In this paper we provide a first attempt to analyse catch up at the micro level, not possible in ... more In this paper we provide a first attempt to analyse catch up at the micro level, not possible in conventional macro-studies. The Indonesian pulp and paper industry has been selected as case-study because it experienced spectacular investment and growth, becoming one of the world's largest exporters and producers of paper in the world. We apply stochastic frontier analysis to compare technical efficiency of Indonesian paper mills with Finnish plants, which can be considered as the world technological leaders in the industry. The analysis is performed on a pooled dataset based on manufacturing census data for the period 1975-1997.

Global Food Security, 2014

Over the last decade, scenario analysis increasingly has been used to explore the main drivers af... more Over the last decade, scenario analysis increasingly has been used to explore the main drivers affecting global food supply and demand in the future. The aim of this study is to summarise, compare and evaluate global scenarios with a focus on global food security. We find that food security outcomes differ substantially and may be attributed to three main factors: (1) differences in scenario storylines and assumptions on drivers, (2) differences in the models that are employed to process the drivers and generate scenario outcomes, and (3) differences in the way and the extent to which results are reported. We also identify several ways how studies and models may be improved. This paper provides important and helpful suggestions for practitioners, but is also useful for policy-makers, who are usually the ultimate users of these scenario studies.

The aim of this study is to review the scenario literature with a particular focus on the implica... more The aim of this study is to review the scenario literature with a particular focus on the implications for global food security. In total nine major global scenario studies, published between 2000 and 2012, are covered. Four out of the nine studies focus explicitly on agriculture and the food system. Four others have a broader or different perspective (e.g. climate change, environment and ecosystems) but nonetheless include elements that are relevant for food security analysis. This study finds that all of the scenarios only deal with two of the four dimensions of food security: food availability and food accessibility, while food utilisation and stability are hardly covered. It is argued that the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) that are currently being developed as input to the upcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, might be a relevant starting point for new global scenarios for the analysis of food security issues.

Global simulation models are increasingly used to assess future scenarios and the impact of polic... more Global simulation models are increasingly used to assess future scenarios and the impact of policies related to food security, land use and climate change. A crucial element in these studies are assumptions on productivity change and technical progress, the key drivers of long-run economic growth and structural change. However, despite their importance, these assumptions are often simplistic or rather ad hoc. This paper addresses this issue by presenting sector and country specific projections for labour productivity till the year 2050 for seven economic regions in the world.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

The Netherlands can be considered as a tax haven for multinational corporations, because it delib... more The Netherlands can be considered as a tax haven for multinational corporations, because it deliberately enables these companies to reduce their tax payments in other countries. As a result, the Netherlands hosts over 10,000 subsidiaries of foreign multinationals, so called Special Financial Institutions, that are used for international tax planning constructions. Together, they control over € 1,000 billion of assets or 13% of global inward FDI stock. This includes € 90 billion in developing countries.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Project code 2271000105 LEI, part of Wageningen UR, The Hague 2 Het LEI kent de werkvelden: [DEZE... more Project code 2271000105 LEI, part of Wageningen UR, The Hague 2 Het LEI kent de werkvelden: [DEZE WORDEN DOOR BUREAUREDACTEUR INGEVOEGD]

World Development, 2014

We present an innovative global-to-local modeling approach to analyze impacts of uncertain and co... more We present an innovative global-to-local modeling approach to analyze impacts of uncertain and complex futures on Vietnam's economy via changes in land use patterns. Socio-economic changes are shown to have major implications for the Vietnamese landscape, including natural forest losses with negative consequences for biodiversity and greenhouse gas emissions, and losses of paddy rice and other agricultural lands in the Red River Delta and the Mekong River delta. Climate-related flood risks in these areas further threaten the population, economic assets, and food security. The scenarios reveal the importance of investments in agriculture, land markets, and climate change mitigation and adaptation.

World Development, 2006

In this paper, we analyze the diffusion and adoption of paper making machinery in the Indonesian ... more In this paper, we analyze the diffusion and adoption of paper making machinery in the Indonesian pulp and paper industry, from 1923 till 2000. We develop a machine level index of technological sophistication (mach), which measures the technological distance of each paper machine to the world technological frontier. The data reveal a pattern of rapid technological catch up. But catch up was not an industrywide phenomenon. Some modern firms installed state-of-the-art machinery, while others installed older vintages. The paper argues that industrial policy has played an important role in the speed and nature of diffusion of paper making machinery.

Third World Quarterly, 2009

This article discusses incoherence between tax and development policies, a relatively new area in... more This article discusses incoherence between tax and development policies, a relatively new area in the debate on policy coherence for development, using a case study of the Netherlands. Dutch business entities play a key role in tax avoidance structures of multinational corporations. We argue that the Dutch tax regime facilitates the avoidance of substantial amounts of tax revenues in developing countries when compared to the Dutch aid budget. As domestic tax revenues are an important source of financing for development, this suggests that the Dutch tax policy is incompatible with the Dutch policy on development co-operation. The lack of policy coherence is largely unintended but it has structural and political causes.

South African Journal of Economics, 2005

This paper analyses the historical performance of the South African manufacturing sector in an in... more This paper analyses the historical performance of the South African manufacturing sector in an international perspective. After a brief overview of the industrialisation process of South Africa during the 20th century, a binary comparison of manufacturing output and productivity between South Africa and the US is presented. The industry-of-origin approach is used to construct unit value ratios (UVRs), as an alternative to the exchange range for converting US and South African output data into the same currency. Subsequently, the UVRs are used to estimate labour and total factor productivity levels for total manufacturing and 13 manufacturing branches for the period 1970-1999 in comparison to the USA. Next, these results are used to compute relative unit labour costs, which shed light on the international competitiveness of the South African manufacturing sector at a detailed level. The study is part of the International Comparisons of output and Productivity (ICOP) project carried out at the universities of Groningen and Eindhoven. We find that there exists a considerable labour and total productivity gap between the US and South Africa, which is continuously widening over time. In 1970, labour productivity stood at 32 percent of US level, while it was only 20 percent in 1999. With respect to relative unit labour costs, the results show that on average, South Africa is competitive with the USA, albeit there are some industries which show consistent relative unit labour costs above US level.

Review of Income and Wealth, 2011

In this study we analyze the micro-dynamics of catch-up in Indonesian paper manufacturing, using ... more In this study we analyze the micro-dynamics of catch-up in Indonesian paper manufacturing, using a two-country plant-level dataset for the period 1975-97. We apply data envelopment analysis (DEA) to measure to what extent Indonesian paper mills are catching up with Finnish mills in terms of technical efficiency. Three questions are addressed: What is the distribution of Indonesian plant technical efficiency vis-à-vis the technological frontier? What is the role of entry, exit, and survival in Indonesia for catch-up in the paper industry as a whole? In what ways do catching-up plants in Indonesia differ from non-catching-up plants? We find that on average the Indonesian paper industry moved closer to the technological frontier during the 1990s. However, catch-up has been a highly localized process in which only a few large establishments have achieved near best-practice performance, while most other plants have stayed behind.