More from Less: Policy Options and Farmer Choice under Water Scarcity (original) (raw)

In much of the world, fresh water is scarce and getting scarcer. Growing populations, increasing industrialisation, and environmental concerns have all put pressure on the water consumed by agriculture. This paper addresses the economic consequences of a permanent reduction in canal water for irrigation. Using detailed cost-of-cultivation data from the Gediz Basin, Turkey, the key questions are: How can farmers best respond to reduced surface water supplies? How can the canal management authorities best distribute this limited water? And, can the demand for water be reduced through input and output price policy? These questions are answered with scenario comparisons under several water availability, crop pattern, price and investment assumptions, for the short and medium time horizons. Keeping productivity high and water use low requires coordination between farmers and the water management authorities. The analysis shows that, in this region, farmers should keep all their land irrigated at lower yield levels, rather than reduce their cropped areas. The canal managers should opt for a short irrigation season, rather than an extended season with long dry intervals. Sensitivity analysis on a range of prices indicates that crop, rather than water prices, affect the efficiency of water use. The scenarios are evaluated using AGWAT, a spreadsheet-based farm-budget program which is simple and widely applicable. The range of policy choices considered establishes a framework of analysis for other, potentially water-short basins, beyond the Gediz or Turkey.