Ukraine a country in crisis between Europe, Russia, and a complex electoral process (original) (raw)

Tadeusz Iwański: Poroshenko stands alone. Ukraine politics in a pre-election year. OSW Commentary No. 269, 21.05.2018

The year 2019 will be an election year in Ukraine, with a presidential election in the spring and a parliamentary election in the autumn. The short timeframe and the order in which these two elections will be held increase the chances of the winner of the presidential election forming the largest faction in parliament. The first phase of election campaigning has already begun, with Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko as the main contenders, but opinion polls are inconclusive. The atmosphere surrounding the campaign is one of mistrust on the part of voters in the authorities and the political class. Ukraine's Euromaidan Revolution created expectations politicians could not fulfil. The incumbent president is trying to consolidate those closest to him and eliminate any rivals so as to become the only choice for governmental rule before active campaigning begins. Poroshenko is also bringing financial, media, and administrative resources to bear to reduce his rivals' potential and increase his impact on voters. In addition to stressing foreign policy successes and achievements in reforming the country, campaigning will also feature anti-Russian rhetoric and an emphasis on the sense of subjectivity that Ukraine and its people, (re)gained as a result of the Revolution. More assertive rhetoric towards international financial institutions, the EU, and certain Member States can also be expected. Though the electoral mechanism is set to go into full swing in September, whether the campaign will ultimately be successful remains in doubt. Support for Poroshenko is declining and is at its lowest since 2014. Cracks within the ruling camp are increasingly evident, with no apparent vision as to how to compete effectively with Yulia Tymoshenko, tipped by polls as the favourite. Tymoshenko has profited from both errors and inaction, and from reform carried out by the post-Maidan authorities which has had painful consequences for society. The president's chances of re-election will be slight without some new and irrefutable success to show the electorate. Partners and other key political players cannot fail to notice the signs of Poroshenko's vulnerability. Their current support for Poroshenko is not absolute, and they could shift their support to a more promising candidate. This means that in Ukraine the old alliances are going out of fashion, and at the same time no new alliances have yet been established. An intense battle has begun behind the scenes between the oligarchs and politicians, from which the main contenders for power in 2019 will emerge.

Ukrainian Presidential Elections 2019 and their Consequences: A Pessimist’s view

2019

The second round (on 21 April) of the 2019 Ukrainian presidential elections witnessed a crushing victory—73.2% to 24.4%—by Volodymyr Zelensky over the incumbent, Petro Poroshenko. Given the extremely brief time in office so far, it is difficult to make any farreaching predictions about the prospects for the sixth Ukrainian president, with his whole term ahead of him. However, this article will attempt to forecast what Zelensky’s presidency might mean for Ukraine, based on the country’s previous experience and Zelensky’s first appointments and early moves.

ANALYTICAL APPROACHES TO THE UKRAINE CRISIS AND THE RECENT UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

In. Stan ANTON, Alexandra SARCINSCHI (eds.): THE COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT Vol. 1, 2014

The Ukrainian parliamentary elections held on October 26, 2014 are, for many reasons, an important milestone in the crisis that has been going on for almost a year now. First, the elections ended a period of almost eight months, during which many have accused Ukrainian leaders of the illegitimate use of power, given that they came to power at the end of February as a result of an uprising, rather than having been elected via a constitutional process. Second, the election results fundamentally changed the Ukrainian legislation and the composition of the Ukrainian political elite, allowing representatives of several new political groups into the Supreme Council that have been all but unknown to the public even a few months ago. Third, the elections ended an extraordinary period during which the political leaders of the country could stay in power without having to implement far-reaching reforms. These changes now offer us the opportunity to review the main turning points of the Ukrainian crisis, framing various analytical approaches to foster a better understanding of the ongoing processes and map up the main challenges that lay ahead of the newly elected leaders following the elections.

The State of the Crisis in Ukraine

The State of the Transatlantic World 2015, 2015

It has been more than a year since a series of turbulent events started in Ukraine that dramatically changed not only the country’s course but also the broader geopolitical situation in Europe’s eastern neighborhood. Taking stock at the beginning of 2015 ...

Presidential election in Ukraine A dilemma of quality and of quantity - Forum for Ukrainian Studies

Forum for Ukrainian Studies, 2019

Presidential election in Ukraine: A dilemma of quality and of quantity Posted on March 19, 2019 by Margaryta Khvostova, Denys Davydenko RELATED POST Impeachment inquiry refocuses attention on the war in Ukraine Ukraine in search of a magician: From protests to the victory of populism Communicating defeat? Poroshenko’s Twitter before and after the second tour of the Ukrainian presidential election Ukraine’s Presidential Elections: The Historical Dimension Marketplace of ideas or headlines to the highest bidder? Political coverage in Ukraine’s most popular newspaper The upcoming presidential election in Ukraine that are to be held on March 31 promise to include the largest number of candidates in the history of the country since it gained independence in 1991. In total, the Central Electoral Commission of Ukraine has registered forty-four contestants for the president’s chair. The candidates belong to a variety of political forces, including representatives from the ruling coalition and from opposition parties, as well as high-ranking executives. Thus, we shall endeavour to present here a systematization of the presidential candidates’ political views along the political spectrum, with the aim of facilitating a better comprehension of Ukrainian politics within a Western framework.

The Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine, October 2014.

Electoral Studies (in press), 2015

The October 2014 legislative elections can be regarded as a watershed event in the political history of post-Soviet Ukraine. Held after the ousting of former President Viktor Yanukovych as a result of Euromaidan protests, the elections produced the first ever pro-western constitutional majority in the Ukrainian legislature. The article addresses the causes and possible future implications of this and several other important outcomes of the elections.