Impact of Federal drug law enforcement on the supply of heroin in Australia (original) (raw)
Related papers
Estimating the Size of the Australian Heroin Market: A New Method
2006
Measuring the success of drug law enforcement by the quantity of drugs seized can be deceptive, simply because the amount seized may increase because the size of the drug market has also increased, rather than because of any increased success of drug law enforcement. Consequently, the best method of assessing the success of drug law enforcement is to determine the percentage of the market seized. The application of this method of analyzing heroin seizures in the years before the heroin shortage in Australia in 2001 reveals that drug law enforcement was an unlikely cause of the 2001 heroin shortage. The most likely explanation for the heroin shortage was a severe disjunction between the rapidly growing demand for heroin in Australia coupled with the significant decline in heroin production in Southeast Asia due to the drought in Burma and a general move away from heroin production towards methamphetamine production.
Effects of a sustained heroin shortage in three Australian States
Addiction, 2005
Background In early 2001 in Australia there was a sudden and dramatic decrease in heroin availability that occurred throughout the country that was evidenced by marked increases in heroin price and decreases in its purity. Aim This study examines the impact of this change in heroin supply on the following indicators of heroin use: fatal and non-fatal drug overdoses; treatment seeking for heroin dependence; injecting drug use; drug-specific offences; and general property offences. The study was conducted using data from three Australian States [New South Wales (NSW), Victoria (VIC) and South Australia (SA)]. Methods Data were obtained on fatal and non-fatal overdoses from hospital emergency departments (EDs), ambulance services and coronial systems; treatment entries for heroin dependence compiled by State health departments; numbers of needles and syringes distributed to drug users; and data on arrests for heroin-related incidents and property-related crime incidents compiled by State Police Services. Time-series analyses were conducted where possible to examine changes before and after the onset of the heroin shortage. These were supplemented with information drawn from studies involving interviews with injecting drug users. Results After the reduction in heroin supply, fatal and non-fatal heroin overdoses decreased by between 40% and 85%. Despite some evidence of increased cocaine, methamphetamine and benzodiazepine use and reports of increases in harms related to their use, there were no increases recorded in the number of either non-fatal overdoses or deaths related to these drugs. There was a sustained decline in injecting drug use in NSW and VIC, as indicated by a substantial drop in the number of needles and syringes distributed (to 1999 levels in Victoria). There was a short-lived increase in property crime in NSW followed by a sustained reduction in such offences. SA and VIC did not show any marked change in the categories of property crime examined in the study. Conclusions Substantial reductions in heroin availability have not occurred often, but in this Australian case a reduction had an aggregate positive impact in that it was associated with: reduced fatal and non-fatal heroin overdoses; reduced the apparent extent of injecting drug use in VIC and NSW; and may have contributed to reduced crime in NSW. All these changes provide substantial benefits to the community and some to heroin users. Documented shifts to other forms of drug use did not appear sufficient to produce increases in deaths, non-fatal overdoses or treatment seeking related to those drugs.
Evaluating explanations of the Australian ‘heroin shortage’
Addiction, 2005
Aims In this paper we outline and evaluate competing explanations for a heroin shortage that occurred in Australia during 2001 with an abrupt onset at the beginning of 2001. Methods We evaluated each of the explanations offered for the shortage against evidence from a variety of sources: government reports, police and drug law enforcement documents and briefings, key informant (KI) interviews, indicator data and research data. Results No similar shortage occurred at the same time in other markets (e.g. Vancouver, Canada or Hong Kong) whose heroin originated in the same countries as Australia's. The shortage was due most probably to a combination of factors that operated synergistically and sequentially. The heroin market had grown rapidly in the late 1990s, perhaps helped by a decline in drug law enforcement (DLE) in Australia in the early 1990s that facilitated high-level heroin suppliers in Asia to establish large-scale importation heroin networks into Australia. This led to an increase in the availability of heroin, increasingly visible street-based drug markets, increased purity and decreased price of heroin around the country. The Australian heroin market was well established by the late 1990s, but it had a low profit margin with high heroin purity, and a lower price than ever before. The surge in heroin problems led to increased funding of the Australian Federal Police and Customs as part of the National Illicit Drug Strategy in 1998-99, with the result that a number of key individuals and large seizures occurred during 1999-2000, probably increasing the risks of large-scale importation. The combination of low profits and increased success of law enforcement may have reduced the dependability of key suppliers of heroin to Australia at a time when seized heroin was becoming more difficult to replace because of reduced supplies in the Golden Triangle. These factors may have reduced the attractiveness of Australia as a destination for heroin trafficking. Conclusions The Australian heroin shortage in 2001 was due probably to a combination of factors that included increased effectiveness of law enforcement efforts to disrupt networks bringing large shipments of heroin from traditional source countries, and decreased capacity or willingness of major traffickers to continue large scale shipments to Australia.
Drug and Alcohol Review, 2002
In response to the rising concerns about the rate of heroin-related fatalities, overdose prevention campaigns, run by both users' organizations and government agencies, have been implemented in a number of states across Australia. In Western Australia (WA) in mid-1997, various overdose prevention initiatives were implemented. These included the implementation of a protocol limiting police presence at overdose events; the commencement of naloxone administration by ambulance staff; and the establishment of the Opiate Overdose Prevention Strategy (OOPS) which provided follow-up for individuals treated for overdose in emergency departments. This paper reports the results of a multiple linear regression analysis of 60 months of timeseries data, both prior to and following the implementation of these interventions, to determine their impact on the number of fatal heroin overdoses in WA. The model employed in the analysis controlled for changes over time in proxy indicators of use and community concerns about heroin, as well as market indicators. The results suggest that, although the interventions implemented have managed to reduce the expected number of fatalities, they have become less successful in doing so as time passes. This has implications for both existing and potential interventions to reduce fatal heroin-related overdose. [Hargreaves K. Lenton S, Phillips M, Swensen G. Potential impacts on the incidence of fatal heroin-related overdose in Western Australia: a time-series analysis. Drug Alcohol Rev 2002;21:321-327]
Addiction, 2004
Aims We seek to establish whether a substantial decline in the supply of heroin, as measured by indicators such as drug purity, is related to changes in drug-related health indicators such as ambulance callouts to heroin overdoses and numbers participating in methadone treatment programmes, and to changes in levels of property crime. The guiding hypothesis is that reduced supply will result in positive health and social outcomes.Design Standard time-series methods are employed to analyse official data from local law-enforcement and heroin supply indicators and several health and social outcome indicators within the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), spanning the late 1990s to early 2002. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are estimated to remove autocorrelation from these series. Cross-correlation and autoregression models are then employed to identify the best predictive models.Findings When autocorrelation has been removed, a reduction in heroin purity predicts a large decline in heroin-related ambulance callouts and an increase in methadone treatment programme enrolments. There is little evidence of an increase in negative outcomes due to heroin users switching to other drugs. A reduction in purity also predicts declines in robbery and burglary but not in theft.Conclusion The overall evidence indicates modest links between the declines in heroin supply and increases in positive health outcomes and decreases in crime, as predicted by a simple economic model. Due to the shortness of some of the series and consequent limitations in statistical power, these conclusions should be regarded as tentative.
The dynamics of heroin use; implications for intervention
Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 2001
Study objective-To use a readily available dataset to detect periods of epidemic change and to examine the progression of heroin epidemics in diVerent geographical areas. To consider the implications of epidemic change for strategies to tackle drug misuse. Design-Comparison of trends in new treatment demand, observed incidence, and age specific population rates for treated heroin users in two geographical areas.
Identification and quantification of change in Australian illicit drug markets
BMC public health, 2006
In early 2001 Australia experienced a sudden reduction in the availability of heroin which had widespread effects on illicit drug markets across the country. The consequences of this event, commonly referred to as the Australian 'heroin shortage', have been extensively studied and there has been considerable debate as to the causes of the shortage and its implications for drug policy. This paper aims to investigate the presence of these epidemic patterns, to quantify the scale over which they occur and to estimate the relative importance of the 'heroin shortage' and any epidemic patterns in the drug markets. Key indicator data series from the New South Wales illicit drug market were analysed using the statistical methods Principal Component Analysis and SiZer. The 'heroin shortage' represents the single most important source of variation in this illicit drug market. Furthermore the size of the effect of the heroin shortage is more than three times that eviden...
Patterns of illicit drug use in NSW, Australia following a reduction in heroin supply
International Journal of Drug Policy, 2005
Objective: To examine whether a reduction in the availability of heroin in New South Wales (NSW) in 2001 was associated with community level changes in heroin and other drug use. Method: Data from the NSW Alcohol and Drug Information Service (ADIS) on the number of persons calling about different drug types were used to examine NSW trends in calls of concern about heroin and other drugs. ADIS is a 24-h telephone information and counselling service in NSW; data from ADIS has previously been shown to be related to trends in drug use. Data from an inner Sydney needle and syringe program on drugs injected by clients were also used to examine time trends among a sentinel group of injecting drug users (IDU). Time series analysis was used to model the series. Results: There was a significant reduction in calls regarding heroin associated with the reduction in heroin supply. Increases in calls about cocaine and methamphetamine were also associated with the heroin shortage. The reduction in calls about heroin appeared to be sustained, whereas the increases in calls about cocaine and methamphetamine were not. Conclusions: Decreases in heroin supply were associated with sustained decreases in the use of heroin at a community level. Substitution of other drugs probably occurred among some users, such substitution did not appear to be sustained, as the number of calls returned to pre-shortage levels. Implications: Drug supply reduction may lead to increases in use of other drug types. The health implications of such changes need to be borne in mind by law enforcement and health services.