Short- and long-term mortality prediction after an acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in Asians: A machine learning approach (original) (raw)
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International Journal of Cardiology, 2017
Background: Risk scores for prediction of mortality 30-days following a ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) have been developed using a conventional statistical approach. Objective: To evaluate an array of machine learning (ML) algorithms for prediction of mortality at 30-days in STEMI patients and to compare these to the conventional validated risk scores. Methods: This was a retrospective, supervised learning, data mining study. Out of a cohort of 13,422 patients from the Acute Coronary Syndrome Israeli Survey (ACSIS) registry, 2782 patients fulfilled inclusion criteria and 54 variables were considered. Prediction models for overall mortality 30 days after STEMI were developed using 6 ML algorithms. Models were compared to each other and to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) and Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) scores. Results: Depending on the algorithm, using all available variables, prediction models' performance measured in an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) ranged from 0.64 to 0.91. The best models performed similarly to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score (0.87 SD 0.06) and outperformed the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) score (0.82 SD 0.06, p b 0.05). Performance of most algorithms plateaued when introduced with 15 variables. Among the top predictors were creatinine, Killip class on admission, blood pressure, glucose level, and age. Conclusions: We present a data mining approach for prediction of mortality post-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. The algorithms selected showed competence in prediction across an increasing number of variables. ML may be used for outcome prediction in complex cardiology settings.
Machine learning prediction of mortality in Acute Myocardial Infarction
BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making
Background Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) is the leading cause of death in Portugal and globally. The present investigation created a model based on machine learning for predictive analysis of mortality in patients with AMI upon admission, using different variables to analyse their impact on predictive models. Methods Three experiments were built for mortality in AMI in a Portuguese hospital between 2013 and 2015 using various machine learning techniques. The three experiments differed in the number and type of variables used. We used a discharged patients’ episodes database, including administrative data, laboratory data, and cardiac and physiologic test results, whose primary diagnosis was AMI. Results Results show that for Experiment 1, Stochastic Gradient Descent was more suitable than the other classification models, with a classification accuracy of 80%, a recall of 77%, and a discriminatory capacity with an AUC of 79%. Adding new variables to the models increased AUC in Ex...
Predictions of mortality in Asian women following STEMI have been the subject of limited studies. This study aims to develop and validate prediction models for in-hospital mortality following STEMI in Asian women using machine learning (ML) and stacked ensemble learning (EL) techniques, and to compare the performance of the algorithms to that of a conventional risk scoring method. From 2006 to 2016, data on multi-ethnic Asian women admitted with STEMI from the Malaysian National Cardiovascular Disease Database (NCVD-ACS) registry were collected. Developed algorithms were compared to the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Risk score (TIMI) and a ML model constructed using data from the general STEMI population. Predictors for ML models were selected using iterative feature selection comprises of feature importance and sequential backward elimination. The machine learning models developed using ML feature selection (AUC ranging from 0.60–0.93) outperforms the conventional risk scor...
Machine Learning Based Risk Prediction for Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events
Navigating Healthcare Through Challenging Times
Background: Patients with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) such as myocardial infarction or stroke suffer from frequent hospitalizations and have high mortality rates. By identifying patients at risk at an early stage, MACE can be prevented with the right interventions. Objectives: The aim of this study was to develop machine learning-based models for the 5-year risk prediction of MACE. Methods: The data used for modelling included electronic medical records of more than 128,000 patients including 29,262 patients with MACE. A feature selection based on filter and embedded methods resulted in 826 features for modelling. Different machine learning methods were used for modelling on the training data. Results: A random forest model achieved the best calibration and discriminative performance on a separate test data set with an AUROC of 0.88. Conclusion: The developed risk prediction models achieved an excellent performance in the test data. Future research is needed to determ...
Knowledge-Based Systems, 2019
The objective of the current study is to compare the relative performance of decision tree, neural network, and logistic regression for predicting 30-day and 1-year mortality in a real-word, unfiltered dataset (n = 47, 391) of patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used for evaluating performance of a learning algorithm. For 30-day mortality, we achieved an average of 0.788 for decision tree models, 0.837 for neural net models and 0.836 for regression models on training set (on validation sets: 0.774, 0.835 and 0.834, respectively). For 1-year mortality, the averages were 0.754 for decision tree models, 0.8194 for neural net models and 0.8191 for regression models (on validation sets: 0.743, 0.8179 and 0.8176, respectively). Differences were non-significant between neural network and regression, but both significantly outperformed decision trees. The machine learning methods investigated in the present study could not outperform traditional regression modelling for mortality prediction in myocardial infarction.
Engineering, Technology and Applied science research/Engineering, Technology and Applied Science Research, 2024
Myocardial Infarction (MI) is a condition often leading to death. It arises from inadequate blood flow to the heart, therefore, the classification of MI complications contributing to lethal outcomes is essential to save lives. Machine learning algorithms provide solutions to support the categorization of the MI complication attributes and predict lethal results. This paper compares various machine learning algorithms to classify myocardial infarction complications and to predict fatal consequences. The considered algorithms are Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Naive Bayes (NB), and Decision Tree (DT). The main objective of this paper is to compare these algorithms in two scenarios: initially using the full dataset once and then using the dataset again, after implementing the WEKA attribute selection algorithm. To accomplish this goal, data from the Krasnoyarsk Interdistrict Clinical Hospital were employed. Results in general revealed that the MLP classifier demonstrated optimal performance regarding the full MI data, whereas the DT classifier emerged as more favorable when the dataset sample size was diminished through an attribute selection algorithm.
Expert Systems, 2019
Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity in the Arabian Gulf. In this study, the in-hospital mortality amongst patients admitted with ACS to Arabian Gulf hospitals is predicted using a comprehensive modelling framework that combines powerful machine-learning methods such as support-vector machine (SVM), Naïve Bayes (NB), artificial neural networks (NN), and decision trees (DT). The performance of the machine-learning methods is compared with that of the performance of a commonly used statistical method, namely, logistic regression (LR).
International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE), 2024
Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of mortality in Latin America, particularly acute myocardial infarction (AMI), which is the primary cause of atherosclerotic cardiovascular morbidity. This study aims to develop a predictive model for the probability of AMI occurrence in the working-age population, based on atherogenic indices, paraclinical variables, and anthropometric measures. The research conducted a cross-sectional study involving 427 workers aged 40 years or older in Popayán, Colombia. Out of this population, 202 individuals were screened with a 95% confidence interval and a 5% error margin. Epidemiological, anthropometric, and paraclinical data were collected. A binary logistic regression model was employed to identify variables directly associated with the probability of AMI. Predictive classification models were generated using statistical software JASP and the programming language Python. During the training stage, JASP produced a model with an accuracy of 87.5%, while Python generated a model with an accuracy of 90.2%. In the validation stage, JASP achieved an accuracy of 93%, and Python reached 95%. These results establish an effective model for predicting the probability of AMI in the working population.
BMC medical informatics and decision making, 2017
Machine learning algorithms hold potential for improved prediction of all-cause mortality in cardiovascular patients, yet have not previously been developed with high-quality population data. This study compared four popular machine learning algorithms trained on unselected, nation-wide population data from Sweden to solve the binary classification problem of predicting survival versus non-survival 2 years after first myocardial infarction (MI). This prospective national registry study for prognostic accuracy validation of predictive models used data from 51,943 complete first MI cases as registered during 6 years (2006-2011) in the national quality register SWEDEHEART/RIKS-HIA (90% coverage of all MIs in Sweden) with follow-up in the Cause of Death register (> 99% coverage). Primary outcome was AUROC (C-statistic) performance of each model on the untouched test set (40% of cases) after model development on the training set (60% of cases) with the full (39) predictor set. Model A...
Health Informatics Journal, 2019
Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide so, early prediction and diagnosis of cardiovascular disease is essential for patients affected by this fatal disease. The goal of this article is to propose a machine learning–based 1-year mortality prediction model after discharge in clinical patients with acute coronary syndrome. We used the Korea Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry data set, a cardiovascular disease database registered in 52 hospitals in Korea for 1 November 2005–30 January 2008 and selected 10,813 subjects with 1-year follow-up traceability. The ranges of hyperparameters to find the best prediction model were selected from four different machine learning models. Then, we generated each machine learning–based mortality prediction model with hyperparameters completed the range fitness via grid search using training data and was evaluated by fourfold stratified cross-validation. The best prediction model with the highest performance was found, and its...