Argentinian Trade Development: 1980 to today (original) (raw)

Policy Brief: The Rise and Fall of Argentina

Mercatus Policy Brief, 2018

On the eve of World War I, the future of Argentina seemed bright. From the adoption of the constitution in 1853 to the onset of World War I, Argentina underwent a period of economic exceptionalism known as the Belle Époque. By 1896, Argentina achieved per capita income parity with the United States and attained a considerably higher level of prosperity than France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Strong economic growth and institutional reforms positioned Argentina among the top 10 countries by 1913 in terms of per capita GDP. Some scholars have called 19th-century Buenos Aires “Chicago on Rio de la Plata,” given the historical similarities between both cities. Nineteenth century Buenos Aires boasted the highest literacy rates in Latin America, unprecedented European immigration, and rapid modernization of infrastructure. It seemed that Argentina briskly moved the “lever of riches” in less than half a century. In 1913, Argentina’s per capita income stood at 72 percent of the US level. In 2010, Argentina achieved barely a third of US level. In 1860, Argentina needed about 55 years to attain the per capita income level of Switzerland. Today Argentina would need more than 90 years to achieve the Swiss level of prosperity. How could a society that achieved astonishing wealth and splendor in less than half a century move from being a developed country to being an underdeveloped one? The most obvious question to ask is, What went wrong? The answer lies in a lack of inclusive and participatory robust legal and institutional framework that would have prevented the reforms from being undermined. A counterfactual experiment for Argentina suggests that institutional breakdowns are a critical explanation in development narratives.

A History of Argentina in the Twentieth Century

Hispanic American Historical Review, 2005

has written a book that is comprehensive, balanced, and full of insights into the development-and turmoil-of modern Argentine history. This book can serve as a starter for anyone interested in the topic. Specialists too will rely on it for its analysis and detail. James Brennan's translation is outstanding.-Jeremy Adelman, Princeton University The purpose of this book is to provide a straightforward synthesis of twentieth-century Argentine history in all its complexity and paradox.. .. Romero focuses on Argentina's place in the larger world, the role of the state, and the influence of culture and intellectuals on the nation's development.-Richard J. Walter, reviewing the Spanish-language edition in The American Historical Review A History of Argentina in the Twentieth Century, originally published in Buenos Aires in 1994, attained instantaneous status as a classic. Written as an introductory text for university students and the general public, it is a profound reflection on the Argentine dilemma and the challenges that the country faces as it tries to rebuild democracy. In the book, Romero painstakingly and brilliantly reconstructs and analyzes Argentina's tortuous, often tragic modern history, from the alluvial society born of mass immigration, to the dramatic years of Juan and Eva Perón, to the recent period of military dictatorship and democracy. For this first English-language edition, Romer o has written a new chapter covering the decade of the 1990s. A rare book combining great erudition with an engaging narrative, it is destined to be the standard English-language history of Argentina for many years to come. The son of Argentina's greatest twentieth-century historian, José Luis Romero, Luis Alberto Romero has emerged as one of the leading historians of his generation in Argentina. Romero's generation is one that has witnessed the most dramatic decades of the country's modern history, the decline of Argentina and its descent into violence, dictatorship, and despair, but also the hopeful if often difficult process of rebuilding democracy since the mid-1980s. Combining the rigor of the professional historian with a passionate

The Economic Consequences of Argentine Independence

2001

Aires enjoyed a dramatic improvement in its terms of trade, in the order of 400%. The removal of mercantilistic restrictions imposed by Spain as well as the reduction in transport costs produced a significant and gradual change in the prices of exportables and importables, as local prices converged towards international prices. The response of the Argentine economy was along the principles of the Theory of Comparative Advantage, that is, the production of exportables increased and the supply of goods competing with imported goods fell. Because exportables were capital and land intensive, and importables labor intensive, the rewards of capital and land increased sharply and wages fell.

The Rise and Fall of Argentina

Mercatus Working Paper, 2018

I examine the contribution of institutional breakdowns to long-run development, drawing on Argentina’s unique departure from a rich country on the eve of World War I to an underdeveloped one today. The empirical strategy is based on building a counterfactual scenario to examine the path of Argentina’s long-run development in the absence of breakdowns, assuming it would follow the institutional trends in countries at parallel stages of development. Drawing on Argentina’s large historical bibliography, I have identified the institutional breakdowns and coded for the period 1850–2012. The synthetic control and difference-indifferences estimates here suggest that, in the absence of institutional breakdowns, Argentina would largely have avoided the decline and joined the ranks of rich countries with an income level similar to that of New Zealand.

Argentina: Economy, Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy

2013

In May 2013, Argentina marked ten years since Néstor Kirchner was elected president. The current FPV government and its supporters have celebrated this period as the ‘década ganada’, characterised by economic recovery and growth, public spending, and accountability for the human rights abuses of the last dictatorship. Critics, on the other hand, point to weakened democratic institutions, increasingly polarised political debate, and unsustainable fiscal and monetary policy. Moreover, for some, the mid-term elections in October 2013 cast doubt on the future of Kirchnerismo. Therefore, as Argentina begins to consider the crucial 2015 presidential election, the Institute of the Americas at UCL organised a Symposium on 21 November 2013 that provided a very timely survey of the current political and economic landscape in the Argentina, and that assessed possible future directions for country. Three broad areas of analysis, summarised below, formed the basis for the discussions: economic performance; domestic politics; and Argentina’s position in Latin America and the world.

Argentine Trade Policies in the XX Century: 60 Years of Solitude

2010

At the turn of the last century, the Argentine economy was on a path to prosperity that never fully developed. International trade and trade policies are often identified as a major culprit. In this paper, we review the history of Argentine trade policy to uncover its exceptional features and to explore its contribution to the Argentine debacle. Our analysis tells a story of bad trade policies, rooted in distributional conflict and shaped by changes in constraints, that favored industry over agriculture in a country with a fundamental comparative advantage in agriculture. While the anti-export bias impeded productivity growth in agriculture, the import substitution strategy was not successful in promoting an efficient industrialization. In the end, Argentine growth never took-off. Keywords Tariff protection Á Export taxes on agriculture Á Anti-export bias JEL Classification F13 Á F14 We thank Rafael Di Tella and Edward Glaeser for encouraging us to write this chapter. We appreciate the superb work done by Natalia Porto in the coordination of all the data collection effort. Nicolas Botan, Laura Jaitman, and Ivan Torre provided excellent research assistance. Comments from Alberto Porto and seminar participants at the ''Argentine Exceptionalism'' conference at Harvard University are greatly appreciated.

The nature of Argentina's policy reforms during 1976-1981

1986

All nghts reserved Manufactured in the United States of Amenca First pnnting January 198.6 This is a working document published .niformally by the World Bank. To present the resu".: oi research wikth he least ooss.ible delay, the typescript has not been prepared in-ccor 'a-: mith the procedures appropnate to formil p: nted texts, and the World Bank accepts no responsibility for errors The publication is supplied at a token charge to defray part of Ite cost of manufacture and distnbution The World Bank does not accept respurns..'-y for the views expressed herein, which are theose of the authors and should not be attnbuted to the 'vio-ld Bank or to its affiliated organizations. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions are the results of research supported by the Bank. they do not necessanly represent official policy of the Bonk. The designations employed. the presentation of matenal, and any mnaps used in this documefnt are solely for the convernience of the reader and do not imply the expression of an', opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank or its affiliates concenring the, legal status of any country. temtory. city, area, or of its authorities, or c-oncerring the delimitation of-ts boundanes, or national affiliation. The most recent World 'ank publications are descnbed in the annual spnng and fall lists, the continuing research program is de.cnbed in the annual Albstracts of Current '5rudies Tlle Itest edition of each is available free of charge from the Publications Sales Unit, Depiartment 1. The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N W., W; shington. D.C. 20433. U.S.A. or frorn the European Office of the Bank. 66 avenur d'ltna, 751 lo Pans. France. Julio I Hogucs is an econo.aiist in the International Economic Research Division of the World Bank's Development Research Department Library of Con'gres. Cataloging-in-Publicati6ni,Data Nogues, Julio" The nature of Argentina's,,economic,policy reforms duri,ng-1,2-1981.

Macroeconomic Outcomes and the Relative Position of Argentina's Economy, 1875–2000*

Journal of Latin American Studies, 2009

This paper attempts to investigate the main factors behind Argentina's relative economic decline by comparing its evolution with that of Australia and Canada. For this purpose a ‘reduced index of economic freedom’ has been constructed in order to capture and summarise the principal macroeconomic trends in Argentina compared with the other regions of recent settlement during the period between 1875 and 2000. The results, obtained using cointegration and causality techniques, show how the macroeconomic policies that were implemented are able to explain the relative evolution of Argentina's economy, in terms of GDP per capita, over the long term. The results revise some of the interpretations prevalent in Argentine historiography.